United States Geological Survey fire science: Fire danger monitoring and forecasting

Jeff C. Eidenshink; Stephen M. Howard

doi:10.3133/fs20123121

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United States Geological Survey fire science: Fire danger monitoring and forecasting

Jeff C. Eidenshink·Stephen M. Howard

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Abstract

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 24.846565348219734° to 49.61070993807422° latitude; -125.24414062499999° to -66.884765625° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Jeff C. Eidenshink, Stephen M. Howard. 2012. United States Geological Survey fire science: Fire danger monitoring and forecasting. https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20123121

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