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A waterfowl reproduction model to predict carryover effects of oil spills

Benjamin M West·Mark L. Wildhaber·Wayne E. Thogmartin·Michael J. Hooper
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Abstract

For wintering and migrating birds, contamination from oil and other substances may delay arrival on the breeding grounds and lead to lower body mass upon arrival. These delays and losses of body mass could lead to smaller clutch sizes and lower propensity to renest. To determine potential effects of these consequences on breeding, we used an augmented version of an existing mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) reproduction model. By combining that reproduction model with the outputs of a previously developed migration and energetics model, we assessed carryover effects of simulated wintering ground oil spills on duckling production and other breeding season-related population parameters. For simulated oil spills that occurred in January, reduced adult population and sublethal effects of migration delays both contributed to decreases in duckling production. For a simulated oil spill that occurred in March, sublethal effects from reduced body mass were the primary driver of decreased duckling production. By combining migration and energetics modeling with a reproduction model, this framework could provide the basis for a tool to generate quantitative estimates of lost reproduction resulting from carryover effects. Furthermore, this modeling framework could also be adapted for other avian species, facilitating assessments of reproductive loss in the context of Natural Resource Damage Assessments following contamination events.

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Benjamin M West, Mark L. Wildhaber, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Michael J. Hooper. 2026-11-04. A waterfowl reproduction model to predict carryover effects of oil spills. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.74537

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