Patterns of glide avalanche release: Insights from 23 years of observations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road, Montana, USA

Abstract

Glide avalanches pose a notable hazard during annual spring snow removal operations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR) in Glacier National Park (GNP), USA. Glide cracks consistently form on specific slopes near and above the GTSR. Some glide crack locations produce glide avalanches most years (known as repeater paths), whereas others are less predictable and either release or melt in place. Previous studies of glide avalanches have focused on different meteorological, snow-pack, and terrain parameters that influence glide release. The timing of glide avalanche release remains difficult to predict, which can be a challenge. To the authors' knowledge, no previous work has approached the issue of timing by comparing the chronological release order of glide paths within an operation. To address this, we examine the release order of repeater paths along the GTSR and investigate different topographical factors that may influence release timing. To investigate the timing of glide avalanche release, we analyzed a dataset of annually recorded glide avalanches from 2003 to 2025 along the GTSR from mid-March to June. We identified 359 glide avalanches with starting zones covering all aspects between 1,600 and 2,700 meters, and performed analysis on topographic factors including elevation, aspect, slope angle, and bed surface. Additionally, we assessed the likelihood and sequence of the release of seven repeater paths. Seven repeater paths along the GTSR generate glide avalanches nearly every year (65–100% of the study period), with two paths (Peak 7774 and Peak 7850) releasing first in over half of the years observed (p-value < 0.01). These paths have been informally recognized as "indicator paths," though this distinction has not been quantified until now. Identifying factors that drive the timing of glide avalanches using a days-scale operational signal can support the safeguarding of infrastructure and personnel. By examining release order and related variables, this study provides practical insights to inform operations managing glide avalanche hazards. Our methods may help forecasters pinpoint indicator paths and potentially recognize the onset of glide avalanche cycles, offering a framework for other operations.