Was historical cisco Coregonus artedi yield consistent with contemporary recruitment and abundance in Lake Superior?

Abstract

Historically, cisco Coregonus artedi Lesueur was the predominant prey fish and target of commercial fisheries throughout Lake Superior, but most spawning stocks collapsed by the mid-1900s. Stocks partially recovered by the early 1990s, but contemporary abundance is considered to be below historical levels and driven by intermittent recruitment. Stochastic, age-structured simulation models were used to determine whether historical (pre-1955) cisco yield in Lake Superior was consistent with contemporary (1992–2015) abundance, life-history characteristics and recruitment dynamics. When compared to contemporary stocks, the findings suggest historical stocks had: (1) similar recruits per spawner at low spawning stock sizes; (2) lower rates of compensatory density dependence; (3) similar or lower recruitment variation depending on the area and (4) higher median adult and age-1 density. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that eutrophication during the historical period supported greater recruitment and adult abundance and that re-oligotrophication during the contemporary period may be limiting full recovery.