Disentangling the historical impacts of warming and fishing on exploited freshwater fish populations

Luoliang Xu; Holly Susan Embke; Christopher Free; Gretchen Hansen; Abigail J. Lynch; Craig P. Paukert; Nicholas Sievert; Olaf P. Jensen

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx5138

USGS · 70272134

Disentangling the historical impacts of warming and fishing on exploited freshwater fish populations

Luoliang Xu·Holly Susan Embke·Christopher Free·Gretchen Hansen·Abigail J. Lynch·Craig P. Paukert·Nicholas Sievert·Olaf P. Jensen

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Abstract

Worldwide, exploited fish populations are increasingly affected by the combined effects of warming and fishing. Disentangling the relative effects of these factors is challenging yet crucial for designing management strategies. We used a temperature-dependent population dynamics model to assess the impacts of lake warming and fishing on 521 freshwater fish populations in the Midwestern United States—a transitional zone between cold- and warmwater species. Overall, most warmwater species (65% of populations) exhibited increases in productivity from warming, while slightly more than half of the cool-/cold-water species (53% of populations) experienced reduced productivity. Populations closer to their carrying capacity showed greater resilience to warming. For the majority of populations (92%), fishing had a more pronounced effect on population dynamics than warming during the time period examined. Therefore, while warming is likely to increasingly threaten many fish populations, effective local fishery management remains a key lever to mitigate these impacts.

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Science Advances Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 42.42855896166411° to 49.01334514320507° latitude; -97.3952733613063° to -86.35530445073529° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Luoliang Xu, Holly Susan Embke, Christopher Free, Gretchen Hansen, Abigail J. Lynch, Craig P. Paukert, Nicholas Sievert, Olaf P. Jensen. 2025. Disentangling the historical impacts of warming and fishing on exploited freshwater fish populations. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx5138

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