Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Kyra Clark-Wolf; Wynne Emily Moss; Brian W. Miller; Imtiaz Rangwala; Helen R. Sofaer; Gregor W. Schuurman; Dawn Magness; Amy Symstad; Jonathan Coop; Dominique M. Bachelet; Joseph Barsugli; Anthony Warren Ciocco; Shelley D. Crausbay; Tyler Hoecker; Jena Lewinsohn; Meagan Ford Oldfather; Orien Richmond; Renee Rondeau; Amber C Runyon; Robin Russell; Jennifer L. Wilkening

doi:10.1002/ecs2.70278

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Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

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Abstract

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 41.07255804821705° to 42.82343445847056° latitude; -102.566212482492° to -99.49738142779864° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Kyra Clark-Wolf, Wynne Emily Moss, Brian W. Miller, Imtiaz Rangwala, Helen R. Sofaer, Gregor W. Schuurman, Dawn Magness, Amy Symstad, Jonathan Coop, Dominique M. Bachelet, Joseph Barsugli, Anthony Warren Ciocco, Shelley D. Crausbay, Tyler Hoecker, Jena Lewinsohn, Meagan Ford Oldfather, Orien Richmond, Renee Rondeau, Amber C Runyon, Robin Russell, Jennifer L. Wilkening. 2025-05-24. Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70278

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