Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

Devin Kirk; Samantha Straus; Marissa L. Childs; Mallory Harris; Lisa Couper; T. Jonathan Davies; Coreen Forbes; Alyssa-Lois M. Gehman; Maya L. Groner; Christopher Harley; Kevin D. Lafferty; Van Savage; Eloise Skinner; Mary I. O’Connor; Erin A. Mordecai

doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152

USGS · 70252551

Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

Devin Kirk·Samantha Straus·Marissa L. Childs·Mallory Harris·Lisa Couper·T. Jonathan Davies·Coreen Forbes·Alyssa-Lois M. Gehman·Maya L. Groner·Christopher Harley·Kevin D. Lafferty·Van Savage·Eloise Skinner·Mary I. O’Connor·Erin A. Mordecai

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Abstract

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.

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Devin Kirk, Samantha Straus, Marissa L. Childs, Mallory Harris, Lisa Couper, T. Jonathan Davies, Coreen Forbes, Alyssa-Lois M. Gehman, Maya L. Groner, Christopher Harley, Kevin D. Lafferty, Van Savage, Eloise Skinner, Mary I. O’Connor, Erin A. Mordecai. 2024-03-07. Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152

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