Predicting physical and geomorphic habitat associated with historical lake whitefish and cisco spawning locations in Lakes Erie and Ontario

Abstract

The Great Lakes basin was historically populated by multiple, coevolved coregonine species, but much of that diversity has been lost. In Lakes Erie and Ontario, both lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) and cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) occurred in high numbers before habitat degradation, overfishing, invasive species, and other factors caused significant declines. There is growing interest in restoring these populations, and suggested actions include restoration of critical habitats such as spawning habitat. Unfortunately, our current understanding of lake whitefish and cisco spawning habitat characteristics and locations in these lakes is limited. To highlight areas of potential importance for conservation and restoration, we used random forest models and data on historical spawning locations to predict lake whitefish and cisco spawning habitats based on hypothesized key factors including wind fetch, ice cover duration, distance from 1st and 6th order tributaries, and lake bottom substrate. Our model accurately predicted spawning habitat locations for 71% and 54% of cases for lake whitefish and cisco, respectively. Fetch was the most important variable in the lake whitefish model, with spawning habitats being most likely to occur in regions of low to moderate fetch. Cisco spawning habitats were most likely to occur in areas of relatively low fetch near a 1st order stream. We used these models to predict spawning habitat locations for both species across Lakes Erie, Ontario, and St. Clair. Our results improve our understanding of lake whitefish and cisco spawning habitat characteristics and will aid in the spatial prioritization of actions to restore these native fishes.