Geology Reports⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70223388

Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: Assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors

M. Tim Tinker·James L. Bodkin·Lizabeth Bowen·Brenda Ballachey·Gena Bentall·Alexander Burdin·Heather Coletti·George G. Esslinger·Brian B. Hatfield·Michael C. Kenner·Kimberly A. Kloecker·Brenda Konar·A. Keith Miles·Daniel Monson·Michael J. Murray·Ben Weitzman·James A. Estes
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in southwest Alaska declined substantially between about 1990 and the most recent set of surveys in 2015. Here we report changes in the distribution and abundance of sea otters, and covarying patterns in reproduction, mortality, body size and condition, diet and foraging behavior, food availability, health profiles, and exposure to environmental contaminants over this 25-yr period. The population decline, which resulted in densities on the order of 5% of environmental carrying capacity, ranged from Attu Island in the west to about Castle Cape (on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula) in the east. Remaining sea otters moved closer to shore and into shallow, protected habitats. Reproductive rates appeared unchanged with the decline. Although the demographic cause of the decline was clearly elevated mortality, stranded carcasses were rare or absent. The net rate of energy gain by foraging sea otters, body length and condition, and prey biomass density, all increased after the decline and varied inversely with sea otter population density beyond the area of decline. Sea otters within the area of decline showed no increases in health anomalies, disease, contaminant exposure, or abnormal gene transcription patterns as compared to animals outside the area of decline. These collective findings are inconsistent with nutritional limitation, disease, or environmental contaminants, and consistent with predation (or possibly some other density-independent factor) as the reason for the sea otter population decline. Our approach and analyses provide a broad conceptual template for thinking about and assessing the causes of wildlife population declines.

Explore related subjects

Ecological MonographsArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

M. Tim Tinker, James L. Bodkin, Lizabeth Bowen, Brenda Ballachey, Gena Bentall, Alexander Burdin, Heather Coletti, George G. Esslinger, Brian B. Hatfield, Michael C. Kenner, Kimberly A. Kloecker, Brenda Konar, A. Keith Miles, Daniel Monson, Michael J. Murray, Ben Weitzman, James A. Estes. 2021-08-02. Sea otter population collapse in southwest Alaska: Assessing ecological covariates, consequences, and causal factors. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1472

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2025

Missing data in ecology: Syntheses, clarifications, and considerations

In ecology and related sciences, missing data are common and occur in a variety of different contexts. When missing data are not handled properly, subsequent statistical estimates tend to be biased, inefficient, and lack proper confidence interval coverage. Missing data are often grouped into three categories: missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). We review each category and compare their benefits and drawbacks. We review several approaches to handling missing data including complete case analysis, imputation, inverse probability weighting, and data augmentation. We clarify what types of variables should accompany imputation methods and how those variables are influenced by the analysis methods. Additionally, we discuss missing data that lack a formal basis for measurement and hence are fundamentally different from MCAR, MAR, and MNAR missing data. Throughout, we introduce concepts and numeric examples using both simulated data and data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 2016 National Wetland Condition Assessment. We conclude by providing five considerations for ecologists and other scientists handling missing data.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2025

Mammalian predator co‐occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales

The behavior and abundance of sympatric predators can be affected by a complex dominance hierarchy. The strength of antagonistic interactions in predator communities is difficult to study and remains poorly understood for many predator assemblages. Predators directly and indirectly influence the broader ecosystem, so identifying the relative importance of competition, prey, and habitat in shaping predator interactions has broad conservation and management implications. We investigated space use among five predator species (black bear [ Ursus americanus ], bobcat [ Lynx rufus ], coyote [ Canis latrans ], mountain lion [ Puma concolor ], and gray wolf [ Canis lupus ]) across three temporal scales in northern Idaho, USA. We used camera trap data to test whether potentially subordinate predators spatially avoided dominant predators and how prey availability influenced those relationships. We found few instances of subordinate predators spatially avoiding dominant predators and only at the finest temporal scale of our analyses. Instead, habitat features generally influenced predator space use patterns at coarser scales whereas prey and competitor presence influenced space use patterns at finer scales. Co-occurrence was positively associated between coyotes and bobcats at coarser timescales and between mesopredators and apex predators at finer timescales. Bobcats and mountain lions temporarily delayed the use of sites recently visited by coyotes and black bears, respectively. And all predator species used sites sooner following the detection of a competitor in areas with higher relative abundances of prey (primarily white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]). Our results suggest attraction to shared habitats and prey resources influenced space use in the predator community more than avoidance of competitors. We propose that the effects of interspecific interactions on predator distributions were most evident for mesopredators because their trophic position requires balancing risks and rewards associated with prey, apex predators, and other mesopredators. In addition, relatively high densities of a common prey source likely facilitated the spatial coexistence in this predator community. Our study demonstrates the value of simultaneously assessing multiple interspecific interactions across different spatiotemporal scales to discern relationships within the predator guild.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Hotter temperatures alter riparian plant outcomes under regulated river conditions

Climate change and river regulation alter environmental controls on riparian plant occurrence and cover worldwide. Simultaneous changes to river flow and air temperature could result in unanticipated plant responses to novel environmental conditions. Increasing temperature could alter riparian plant response to hydrology and other factors, while river regulation may exacerbate environmental stress through novel flows like those resulting from power generation. Further, plant establishment and growth may require differing conditions, which may be decoupled by novel conditions. Using a large dataset that spans a natural 5°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient and a Bayesian model that integrates plant occurrence and cover, we address four questions: (1) Does hotter MAT modify plant response to hydrology, substrate composition, topography, and cover of co-occurring plant species? (2) Does the timing of hydropower tides benefit some species over others? (3) Does dam-induced erosion hinder riparian species more than upland species? (4) Do occurrence and cover respond to different environmental variables, allowing for decoupling of life history processes? We addressed these questions with data collected along 364 km of the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, United States of America. Occurrence and cover class were recorded in >10,000 plots from 2016 to 2020, along with environmental covariates that repeat across the climate gradient. For 36 species, plant occurrence and cover were modeled with respect to MAT, hydrology, substrate, topography, other plant cover, and their interactions with MAT. There were four key results. (1) Increasing MAT will not only directly influence plants but will mediate their responses to the environment, including greater dependence on stable water supplies. (2) The timing of hydropower tides shapes plant community composition. (3) Dam-related erosion has an outsized effect on riparian species, which could lead to a loss of regionally unique plant species. (4) For all species, the most important covariates driving occurrence differed from those for cover, suggesting the potential for these life stages to be decoupled. Not only will climate change and river regulation independently alter plant distributions, interactions among hotter temperature, dam-controlled flow patterns, and limited fine sediments will determine which species flourish or perish under future conditions.

Arizona↗