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Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains

Terry L. Sohl·Jordan Dornbierer·Steve Wika
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Abstract

We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution. Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate change. Thirty-three scenario combinations were modeled, facilitating landscape planning and mitigation efforts under a range of possible landscape futures. Change in rangeland from 2014 to 2100 varied from an increase of 4.3% for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario, to a decline of 23.6% for the SRES A1B scenario. The spatially and thematically detailed projections are designed for the assessment of landscape interactions with water flow and water quality, species distribution and abundance modeling, greenhouse gas assessments, and other ecosystem services.

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Terry L. Sohl, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika. 2019. Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2018.12.001

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