Model aids planners in predicting rising ground-water levels in San Bernardino, California

Abstract

The city of San Bernardino is in a semiarid inland valley about 60 miles (100 kilometers) east of Los Angeles. The southern part of the city is traversed by the San Jacinto fault. Adjacent to the upgradient (northeast) side of the fault is a 10 square mile (26 square kilometers) area which contains a zone in the alluvial ground‐water basin that formerly was under artesian pressure and consisted of swampy lands with a history of flowing wells, springs, and ground‐water discharge to Warm Creek. Since about 1945, water levels have declined more than 100 feet (30 meters), and the swampy lands have dried up and are now highly urbanized. Basin replenishment by artificial recharge of imported northern California water at the base of the San Bernardino Mountains may cause ground‐water levels to rise again in the area that was formerly swampy land. If this should happen, building foundations and basements could be subjected to structural damage and flooding by renewed flowing of unplugged artesian wells. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, is developing a two‐layer digital model to aid in predicting the rate and extent of the rise in water levels. The solution to the mathematical equations used in the model was approximated numerically by the Galerkin finite‐element method. The water district desires to evaluate water management alternatives, such as varying location, distribution, amounts of recharge, and pumping centers, to avoid excessive water level rises that could indicate an overfilling of the basin and could cause damage.