Geology Reports⌕ Search

USGS · 70176797

Calling for an ecological approach to studying climate change and infectious diseases

Abstract

My Concepts and Synthesis paper (Lafferty 2009),which inspired this Forum, echoed the premise that earlyreviews about climate change exaggerated claims thatinfectious diseases will increase in the future (Randolph2009). The paper sparked five well-reasoned commen-taries from ecologists with considerable expertise ininfectious diseases (Dobson 2009, Harvell et al. 2009,Ostfeld 2009, Pascual and Bouma 2009, Randolph2009). These reviews illustrate several examples andcase studies which corr elate i ncreases in infectiousdisease with existing climate variation, though alterna-tive explanations exist for many of these patterns(Dobson 2009, Harvell et al. 2009, Ostfeld 2009, Pascualand Bouma 2009, Randolph 2009). A common messageis that an ecological approach is increasingly relevant tothe challenging topic of infectious disease.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Kevin D. Lafferty. 2009. Calling for an ecological approach to studying climate change and infectious diseases. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1767.1

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

Ecological stability of zooplankton communities in changing arctic lakes over three decades

In the Arctic, rapid warming is altering disturbance regimes, creating an urgent need to assess the ecological stability of these relatively pristine ecosystems. The Arctic landscape has thousands of lakes that are experiencing both gradual, persistent disturbances (e.g., warming) and increased frequency and intensity of pulse disturbances (e.g., land-surface failures). To assess the ecological stability of lake communities in a changing environment, we analyzed long-term data (14–39 years) on zooplankton communities and environmental variables from 25 lakes in arctic Alaska. We characterized long-term change and evaluated the resistance and recovery of communities to natural or experimental disturbances. We hypothesized that reference lakes would demonstrate resistance to background environmental change, represented by variable but consistent relative abundances over time, while manipulated or disturbed lakes would show recovery after the disturbance ceased, as represented by directional changes in relative abundance with return to pre-disturbance conditions. Environmental variables including water conductivity, chlorophyll- a , NO 3 − , pH, dissolved oxygen, light extinction, and soluble reactive phosphorus changed directionally through time, suggesting press effects due to climate change. Zooplankton communities were resistant to environmental change in undisturbed lakes, but, despite monitoring lakes for up to 28 years after disturbance, few lakes showed evidence of recovery to pre-disturbance conditions. This lack of recovery may indicate shifting baselines due to environmental change. The variation we did observe was largely due to shifts in species relative abundance rather than in species turnover, and this variability was related to lake depth. Zooplankton communities and environmental variables displayed more interannual variation in shallow (depth ≤ 6 m) lakes than in deep lakes. Overall, our results demonstrate that arctic zooplankton communities have high resistance to the effects of climate change but potentially low recovery or long recovery times to pulse disturbances.

Alaska↗

DRIFteRS: A dataset of drift invertebrate densities in streams and rivers across western North America, 1997–2024

Prey availability is among the most influential and highly variable determinants of fish growth and freshwater habitat carrying capacity, yet it remains understudied compared to physical habitat variables (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rosenfeld et al., 2014; Weber et al., 2017). We often lack a clear understanding of how much food is available to fishes, how it varies spatially and temporally, and how it influences responses to restoration (Ouellet et al., 2025; Rossi et al., 2024; Wipfli et al., 2010). Drift invertebrates—the primary food source for juvenile salmonids and other drift-foraging fishes—play a pivotal role in these dynamics. To better understand the spatiotemporal variability of drift invertebrate abundance and biomass across the freshwater range of drift-feeding salmonids in western North America, we compiled the DRift Invertebrates For salmonids in River Systems (DRIFteRS) dataset. The dataset encompasses 6125 samples of drift invertebrates, and, for a subset of drift samples, associated benthic invertebrate density data, collected from 1360 reaches on 459 unique rivers and streams spanning 55 river basins considered hydrologically independent (i.e., not nested within the same larger watershed) across British Columbia, Canada, and the U.S. states of Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Sample sites represent a diverse array of river and stream habitats (e.g., headwater, mainstem, side channel), in watersheds with diverse land uses (e.g., urban, wilderness, agricultural), and disturbance histories (e.g., fire, restoration). Collected between 1997 and 2024, the data span the full calendar year and capture daily and seasonal patterns in drift abundance and biomass densities. When paired with water quality and quantity data as well as remotely sensed environmental landscape data, such as land use/land cover, climate, and disturbance history, channel morphology, and riparian vegetation composition, the DRIFteRS dataset can aid in identifying key drivers of drift invertebrate densities and mean body size and support predictive modeling in unsampled locations and times. The dataset may also be used to analyze aquatic-terrestrial resource flows, derive prey-encounter rates and profitability (mean prey size), and inform broader investigations of sit-and-wait foraging ecology, especially when paired with data on drift-foraging predators. For salmonid-focused applications, the dataset can be integrated into habitat evaluation models, including bioenergetic (e.g., Naman et al., 2019) and life cycle models (e.g., Beechie et al., 2023), to improve estimates of habitat capacity and population dynamics for river- and stream-rearing salmonids. Understanding prey availability dynamics is increasingly important, because rising water temperatures increase salmonid metabolic demands (Crozier et al., 2010). Flow regime transitions (i.e., snow or glacier dominated to rain dominated; Beechie et al., 2013), wildfire frequency and intensity (Hessburg et al., 2021), as well as plant community and phenology shifts (Cleland et al., 2007; Franklin et al., 2016) are all predicted to change with rising temperatures and are potential drivers of terrestrial and aquatic invertebrate prey quality and availability in lotic systems. These insights can ultimately inform restoration prioritization and design, helping managers consider food resource implications when evaluating restoration priorities and match habitat improvement to food supply. The data are released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license and may be reused with attribution.

Alaska, Arizona, British Columbia, California, Col↗

Combining individual and close-kin mark–recapture to design an effective wildlife population survey

Close-kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a promising approach for assessing population size of species that have been difficult to survey using more traditional methods. Here, we combine individual and close-kin mark–recapture in a single modeling framework (ICKMR) and provide an example of study design using this approach for Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ). We develop the ICKMR model and test it using simulated datasets, then use properties of the pseudo-likelihood to investigate the expected precision in estimates of abundance with different proposed survey designs. Our motivating example, the Pacific walrus, is an ice-associated marine mammal found in the Bering and Chukchi seas, where it is an important resource for Indigenous peoples. Pacific walrus abundance declined in the late 20th century, and it is currently a species of conservation concern due to potential impacts of climate change, particularly the loss of sea ice. To reduce uncertainty in population size estimates, researchers undertook a genetic mark–recapture sampling campaign from 2013 to 2017 and collected tissue samples from over 8000 individuals. Another campaign of a similar scale is ongoing (2023–2028). While sample collection was designed for individual mark–recapture, advances in CKMR methods and associated molecular techniques mean that these samples could also be suitable for CKMR. The advantages of CKMR over mark–recapture include an increased effective sample size (because each individual tags itself and its parents, siblings, and offspring) and additional insights into demographic quantities of interest. To make best use of genetic samples, we combine individual mark–recapture (IMR) with CKMR (ICKMR) and investigate whether different sampling strategies can increase precision in estimates of abundance. Our modeling approach includes special considerations for walrus life history, including a multi-year inter-birth interval. We found that expected coefficients of variation (CVs) of the ICKMR estimates of abundance, adult female survival, juvenile female survival, and proportion of breeding females are lower than those expected from IMR alone, and with ICKMR, fewer years of sampling can be conducted to obtain sufficient precision in estimates of abundance. This work demonstrates the utility of ICKMR and could be applicable across a variety of taxa.

Ecology↗