Stalking the next Parkfield earthquake in Central California

Abstract

Looking southeast from Middle Mountain toward Gold Hill, it is a subtle furrow in the grassy knolls of the Cholame Valley of California's Coast Range. To geophysicists, this 19-mile section of the San Andreas fault midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles is the most well understood, most intensely monitored fault in the world. As such, it is also the most likely place for American earthquake researchers to become earthquake predictors. The present understanding of the fault has already prompted speculations that the next moderate Parkfield earthquake will strike in early 1988, give or take a few years. Perhaps more importnat, the next rupture of the Parkfield section of the fault could get out of hand and create a much larger earthquake.