USGS · 70118811
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Justin G. Boyles, Paul M. Cryan, Gary F. McCracken, Thomas H. Kunz. 2011. Response to: Concerns about extrapolating right off the bat [Letter]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.333.6040.287-b
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Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of rapid anthropogenic warming on forest ecosystem structure, biodiversity, and function. As an analog, we reconstruct forest canopy density and compositional change in Wyoming, USA, through the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an interval of abrupt carbon increase and warming ~56 million years ago. We develop a proxy to quantify leaf area index and assess shifts in floral composition using palynomorphs. Forest canopies opened abruptly at onset of PETM warming, landscape erosion increased, and vegetation shifted from broad-leaved angiosperm to fern- and palm-dominated ecosystems. When combined with regional data, these patterns suggest that continental-scale changes in plant communities cause landscape destabilization. These shifts also have implications for multimillennial-scale hydrologic and carbon cycle feedbacks in the climate system.
Earthquakes of magnitude ( M ) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M 6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.
Early in the morning of 10 August 2025, a >64 × 10 6 –cubic meter landslide struck Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska. The landslide was preconditioned by glacial retreat caused by climate change. The resulting 481-meter runup megatsunami followed an initial 100-meter-high breaking wave traveling at >70 meters per second. The landslide was preceded by several days of microseismicity, which increased in rate and magnitude until ~1 hour before failure. The landslide produced globally observed long-period seismic waves equivalent in size to a moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake. A long-period (~66 second) global seismic signal, produced by a landslide-induced seiche trapped within the fjord, persisted for up to 36 hours, the second time a days-long seiche had thus been observed. With fjord regions increasingly visited by cruise ships, and climate change making similar events more likely, this unanticipated, near-miss event highlights the growing risk from landslides and tsunamis in coastal environments.