Geology Reports⌕ Search
Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70038012

Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography

Sarah J. Converse·J. Andrew Royle·Richard P. Urbanek
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark-recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual's genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.

Explore related subjects

Journal of OrnithologyArticle

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Sarah J. Converse, J. Andrew Royle, Richard P. Urbanek. 2011-04-24. Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-011-0695-0

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2025

Timing of Steller’s Eider remigial molt has delayed over 26-year span

The Steller’s Eider is a sea duck that uses specific molting areas in lagoons in southwest Alaska, and these molting populations have declined in recent decades. The annual flight feather molt is a significant stage in avian life-history. The focus of this study was to characterize the phenology of Steller’s Eider flight feather molt timing and explore if molt timing is (1) earlier, (2) remained unchanged, or (3) is delayed. We developed a flight feather growth function throughout molt using data from captive birds. We used measurements from free-ranging birds over a 26-year period to investigate variation in molt start dates among sexes, years, and locations. Results indicate that fall molt timing has delayed over 26 years for Steller’s Eiders in our study area. We speculate that drivers of observed change in timing may be related to changes in seasonal Arctic environmental conditions. Our findings can be used by managers to inform timing of population surveys.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Long-term trends of local bird populations based on monitoring schemes: Are they suitable for justifying management measures?

Local biodiversity monitoring is important to assess the effects of global change, but also to evaluate the performance of landscape and wildlife protection, since large-scale assessments may buffer local fluctuations, rare species tend to be underrepresented, and management actions are usually implemented on local scales. We estimated population trends of 58 bird species using open-population N-mixture models based on count data in two localities in southeastern Spain, which have been collected according to a citizen science monitoring program (SACRE, Monitoring Common Breeding Birds in Spain) over 21 and 15 years, respectively. We performed different abundance models for each species and study area, accounting for imperfect detection of individuals in replicated counts. After selecting the best models for each species and study area, empirical Bayes methods were used for estimating abundances, which allowed us to calculate population growth rates ( λ ) and finally population trends. We also compared the two local population trends and related them with national and European trends, and species functional traits (phenological status, dietary, and habitat specialization characteristics). Our results showed increasing trends for most species, but a weak correlation between populations of the same species from both study areas. In general, local population trends were consistent with the trends observed at national and continental scales, although contrasting patterns exist for several species, mainly with increasing local trends and decreasing Spanish and European trends. Moreover, we found no evidence of a relationship between population trends and species traits. We conclude that using open-population N-mixture models is an appropriate method to estimate population trends, and that citizen science-based monitoring schemes can be a source of data for such analyses. This modeling approach can help managers to assess the effectiveness of their actions at the local level in the context of global change.

Journal of Ornithology↗
USGS2017

Biogeographical variation of plumage coloration in the sexually dichromatic Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens)

Plumage coloration in birds can be of major importance to mate selection, social signaling, or predator avoidance. Variations in plumage coloration related to sex, age class, or seasons have been widely studied, but the effect of other factors such as climate is less known. In this study, we examine how carotenoid-based plumage coloration and sexual dichromatism of the Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ) varies with rainfall and temperature on Hawai‘i Island. We also examined whether Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi plumage coloration patterns follow Gloger’s rule, which states that animals in wetter climates have darker coloration. Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi were mist-netted and banded at 12 sites representing six major climatic zones on Hawai‘i Island. Feather samples were collected from two body regions: the breast and rump. Using spectrophotometry, we recorded coloration using measures of hue, saturation, and brightness. We conducted sex determination by polymerase chain reaction to confirm the sex of birds sampled. We found that the plumage coloration of Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi varied with both temperature and rainfall. ‘Amakihi plumage’s brightness showed a quadratic relationship with rainfall, contrary to Gloger’s rule, and decreased with temperature. Saturation depended on the interaction between temperature and rainfall. Increases in rainfall also increased saturation in warm areas, while they reduced saturation when the temperature was low. Finally, we found chromatic differences among sexes, but sexual dichromatism was not affected by the climatic conditions. This study provides evidence that rainfall and temperature play an important role in determining the plumage traits of Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi.

Journal of Ornithology↗