Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

S.J. Wilson; R.B. Hunter; Timothy S. Collett; S. Hancock; R. Boswell; B.J. Anderson

doi:10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2010.03.007

Home/Archive/USGS

USGS · 70036079

Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

S.J. Wilson·R.B. Hunter·Timothy S. Collett·S. Hancock·R. Boswell·B.J. Anderson

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the “Eileen” gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the “reference case” were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A “downside-scenario” which fails to identify viable production, an “upside-scenario” describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an “extreme upside scenario” assumes each well is exceptionally productive. Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability. Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71 BM 3 (2.5 tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283 BM 3 (10 tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years. Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An “extreme upside” case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research.

Explore related subjects

Marine and Petroleum Geology Article

Source-reported bounding extent: 67.90861918215302° to 72.18180355624855° latitude; -167.255859375° to -141.064453125° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

S.J. Wilson, R.B. Hunter, Timothy S. Collett, S. Hancock, R. Boswell, B.J. Anderson. 2011. Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2010.03.007

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2025

Terrebonne Basin, Gulf of Mexico gas hydrate resource evaluation and 3-D modeling of basin-scale sedimentation, salt tectonics, and hydrate system evolution since the early Miocene

In assessing methane hydrate as a potential transitional energy source, quantification of in-place volumes of gas is a first step—and yet, global, regional, and even local estimates of gas volumes contained within hydrate are highly variable, including within the extensively-studied Gulf of Mexico (GoM) gas hydrate province. Here, we construct the first 3-D basin and hydrocarbon system model of the Terrebonne Basin (Walker Ridge protraction area, northern GoM) to estimate in-place resources contained as gas within hydrate, as well as to provide the first estimate of in-place resources contained within free gas accumulations in the basin. The resultant model-predicted 3-D distributions (and saturations) of hydrate are consistent with independent seismic interpretation and borehole observations. This study reveals both sedimentation-driven and salt diapir-driven gas hydrate recycling produce elevated hydrate saturations in the basin (“recycling” occurs when relative upward shifts of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) cause hydrate dissociation, generating buoyant free gas that may reaccumulate as higher-saturation hydrate at the new base of GHSZ). An important finding of this study (particularly given that, globally, the source of methane in marine hydrate systems tends to be poorly understood) is that microbial sources can explain most or all hydrate occurrences in Terrebonne Basin. We calculate that ∼32 × 10 9 m 3 (∼1.1 10 12 ft 3 ) of methane gas is trapped within hydrate accumulations throughout Terrebonne Basin, while nearly 2 × 10 9 m 3 (∼67 × 10 9 ft 3 ) of methane occurs as free gas at high saturations within sandy reservoirs beneath the GHSZ and ∼35 × 10 9 m 3 (∼1.2 × 10 12 ft 3 ) occurs as free gas at low saturations within muddy units beneath the GHSZ. In total, our calibrated 3-D model predicts that nearly 70 × 10 9 m 3 (∼2.5 × 10 12 ft 3 ) of microbial methane is trapped as gas hydrate and free gas in the Terrebonne Basin.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2024

Mapping the resistivity structure of Walker Ridge 313 in the Gulf of Mexico using the marine CSEM method

A marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) campaign was carried out in the Gulf of Mexico to further develop marine electromagnetic techniques in order to aid the detection and mapping of gas hydrate deposits. Marine CSEM methods are used to obtain an electrical resistivity structure of the subsurface which can indicate the type of substance filling the pore space, such as gas hydrates which are more resistive. Results from the Walker Ridge 313 study (WR 313) are presented in this paper and compared with the Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project II (JIP2) logging while drilling (LWD) results and available seismic data. The hydrate, known to exist within sheeted sand deposits, is mapped as a resistive region in the two dimensional (2D) CSEM inversion models. This is consistent with the JIP2 LWD resistivity results. CSEM inversions that use seismic horizons provide more realistic results compared to the unconstrained inversions by providing sharp boundaries and architectural control on the location of the resistive and conductive regions in the CSEM model. The seismic horizons include: 1) the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ), 2) the top of salt, and 3) the top and bottom of a fine grained marine mud interval with near vertical hydrate filled fractures, to constrain the CSEM inversion model. The top of salt provides improved location for brines, water saturated salt, and resistive salt. Inversions of the CSEM data map the occurrence of a ‘halo’ of conductive brines above salt. The use of the BGHSZ as a constraint on the inversion helps distinguish between free gas and gas hydrate as well as gas hydrate and water saturated sediments.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Comparison of measured versus modeled TOC in the Tuscaloosa marine shale of Southwestern Mississippi, U.S.A.

This study presents a comparison of measured versus modeled total organic carbon (TOC) in the Upper Cretaceous Tuscaloosa marine shale (TMS) of southwestern Mississippi as a case study to evaluate the effects of mineralogy on the TOC estimated from the ΔlogR method. The ΔlogR method is utilized to calculate TOC, which involves baselining sonic transit time and resistivity log curves in a non-source rock section of the formation. In our application, the well log curves were baselined in the upper TMS, which is described as a non-source rock section, and in the lower TMS above the high resistivity zone (HRZ), which is described as having a higher carbonate content. The ΔlogR calculated TOC values from these two baselining approaches show that the lower baseline results in improved agreement between measured TOC and calculated TOC. This improvement is likely to be due to the lower baseline accounting for the increase in resistivity caused by higher carbonate content, in addition to any presence of TOC. The upper baseline, which has a lower carbonate content, does not account for this resistivity increase. Additionally, sample type appears to affect the comparison of measured and ΔlogR calculated TOC. Most of the samples used in this study are legacy cuttings that were not preserved during storage, exposing the high surface area cuttings to increased rates of oxidation, whereas geophysical logs record the rock properties in situ. To account for this oxidation effect, the difference between the medians of the TMS HRZ TOC core and cuttings values was added to each TOC measurement in this study, resulting in a median measured TOC value that is similar to the median of the lower TMS-baselined ΔlogR calculated TOC value. Overall, this study demonstrates that carbonate content and sample type can affect how well measured and ΔlogR-modeled TOC values compare.

Mississippi↗