The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

Categorisation of northern California rainfall for periods with and without a radar brightband using stable isotopes and a novel automated precipitation collector

During landfall of extratropical cyclones between 2005 and 2011, nearly 1400 precipitation samples were collected at intervals of 30-min time resolution with novel automated collectors at four NOAA sites in northern California [Alta (ATA), Bodega Bay (BBY), Cazadero (CZD) and Shasta Dam (STD)] during 43 events. Substantial decreases were commonly followed hours later by substantial increases in hydrogen isotopic composition ( δ 2 H VSMOW where VSMOW is Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) and oxygen isotopic composition ( δ 18 O VSMOW ) of precipitation. These variations likely occur as pre-cold frontal precipitation generation transitions from marine vapour masses having low rainout to cold cloud layers having much higher rainout (with concomitant brightband signatures measured by an S-band profiling radar and lower δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation), and finally to shallower, warmer precipitating clouds having lower rainout (with non-brightband signatures and higher δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation), in accord with ‘seeder–feeder’ precipitation. Of 82 intervals identified, a remarkable 100.5 ‰ decrease in δ 2 H VSMOW value was observed for a 21 January 2010 event at BBY. Of the 61 intervals identified with increases in δ 2 H VSMOW values as precipitation transitioned to shallower, warmer clouds having substantially less rainout (the feeder part of the seeder–feeder mechanism), a remarkable increase in δ 2 H VSMOW value of precipitation of 82.3 ‰ was observed for a 10 February 2007 event at CZD. All CZD and ATA events having δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation below −105 ‰ were atmospheric rivers (ARs), and of the 13 events having δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation below −80 ‰, 77 % were ARs. Cloud echo-top heights (a proxy for atmospheric temperature) were available for 23 events. The mean echo-top height is greater for higher rainout periods than that for lower rainout periods in 22 of the 23 events. The lowest δ 2 H VSMOW of precipitation of 28 CZD events was −137.9 ‰ on 16 February 2009 during an AR with cold precipitating clouds and very high rainout with tops >6.5 km altitude. An altitude effect of −2.5 ‰ per 100 m was measured from BBY and CZD δ 2 H VSMOW data and of −1.8 ‰ per 100 m for CZD and ATA δ 2 H VSMOW data. We present a new approach to categorise rainfall intervals using δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation and rainfall rates. We term this approach the algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall, and we were able to identify higher rainout and/or lower rainout periods during all events in this study. We conclude that algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall can enable users to distinguish between tropospheric vapour masses having relatively high rainout (typically with brightband rain and that commonly are ARs) and vapour masses having lower rainout (commonly with non-brightband rain).