Estimating nest success: When Mayfield wins

Abstract

The Apparent estimator of nest success may be severely biased because unsuccessful nests are less likely to be found than are successful nests. The Mayfield estimator is a preferred alternative. The situation is somewhat different for nests in colonies or on islands because of greater visibility of nests, higher synchrony of nesting, and often higher hatch rates than dispersed mainland nests. Also, destruction is more likely to occur catastrophically, which violates an assumption of the Mayfield method that the mortality rate is constant. By simulation we investigated the performance of the Apparent and Mayfield estimators under a variety of circumstances.We found that when mortality rate was constant, the Mayfield estimator generally performed well regardless of whether or not nesting was synchronous or whether mortality was high or low. The Apparent estimator required more searches and higher detectability of nests. When mortality was mostly catastrophic, the Mayfield method performed poorly. The Apparent method was better, but high levels of detectability were needed for accurate estimates. We reached similar conclusions for attempts to estimate the number of nests initiated.