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Research about Wisconsin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Wisconsin.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin

Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Relative sampling efficiency and movements of subadult Lake Sturgeon in the Lower Wolf River, Wisconsin

Understanding sampling efficiency and movements of subadult Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens is necessary to facilitate population rehabilitation and recruitment monitoring in large systems with extensive riverine and lacustrine habitats. We used a variety of sampling methods to capture subadult Lake Sturgeon (i.e., fish between 75 and 130 cm TL that had not reached sexual maturity) and monitored their movements using radio telemetry in the lower Wolf River, a tributary to the Lake Winnebago system in Wisconsin. Our objectives were to determine whether (1) capture efficiency (expressed in terms of sampling time) of subadult Lake Sturgeon using multiple sampling methods was sufficient to justify within-river sampling as part of a basin-wide recruitment survey targeting subadults, (2) linear home ranges varied in relation to season or sex, and (3) subadult Lake Sturgeon remained in the lower Wolf River. From 2013 to 2014, 628 h of combined sampling effort that included gill nets, trotlines, electrofishing, and scuba capture was required to collect 18 subadult sturgeon, which were then implanted with radio transmitters and tracked by boat and plane. Linear home ranges did not differ in relation to sex but did vary among seasons, and the majority of movement occurred in spring. Seven of the 18 (39%) Lake Sturgeon left the river and were not detected in the river again during the study. Between 56% and 70% of subadult fish remaining in the river made definitive movements to, or near, known spawning locations when adult Lake Sturgeon were actively spawning. Our results suggest only a small proportion of subadult Lake Sturgeon in the Lake Winnebago population use the lower Wolf River, indicating that riverine sampling may not always be warranted when targeting subadults in large lake–river complexes. More information is needed on distribution of subadult Lake Sturgeon to develop sampling protocols for this population segment.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Walleye age estimation using otoliths and dorsal spines: Preparation techniques and sampling guidelines based on sex and total length

We used dorsal spines and otoliths from 735 Walleye Sander vitreus collected from 35 Wisconsin water bodies to evaluate whether 1) otolith and dorsal spine cross sections provided age estimates similar to simpler methods of preparation (e.g., whole otoliths and dorsal spines, cracked otoliths); and 2) between-reader precision and differences between spine and otolith ages varied in relation to total length (TL), sex, and growth rate. Ages estimated from structures prepared using simpler techniques were generally similar to ages estimated using thin sections of dorsal spines and otoliths, suggesting that, in some instances, much of the additional processing time and specialized equipment associated with thin sectioning could be avoided. Overall, between-reader precision was higher for sectioned otoliths (mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 3.28%; standard error [SE] = 0.33%) than for sectioned dorsal spines (mean CV = 9.20%; SE = 0.56%). When using sectioned otoliths for age assignment, between-reader precision did not vary between sexes or growth categories (i.e., fast, moderate, slow), but between-reader precision was higher for females than males when using sectioned dorsal spines. Dorsal spines were generally effective at replicating otolith ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL, suggesting that dorsal spines can be used to estimate ages for male Walleye <450 mm TL and female Walleye <600 mm TL. If sex is unknown, we suggest dorsal spines be used to estimate ages for Walleye <450 mm TL, but that otoliths be used for fish >450 mm TL. Our results provide useful guidance on structure and preparation technique selection for Walleye age estimation, thereby allowing biologists to develop sampling guidelines that could be implemented using information that is always (TL) or often (sex) available at the time of fish collection.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Effects of flood inundation and invasion by Phalaris arundinacea on nitrogen cycling in an Upper Mississippi River floodplain forest

Although floodplains are thought to serve as important buffers against nitrogen (N) transport to aquatic systems, frequent flooding and high levels of nutrient availability also make these systems prone to invasion by exotic plant species. Invasive plants could modify the cycling and availability of nutrients within floodplains, with effects that could feedback to promote the persistence of the invasive species and impact N export to riverine and coastal areas. We examined the effect of flooding on soil properties and N cycling at a floodplain site in Pool 8 of the Upper Mississippi River with 2 plant communities: mature native forest ( Acer saccharinum ) and patches of an invasive grass ( Phalaris arundinacea ). Plots were established within each vegetation type along an elevation gradient and sampled throughout the summers of 2013 and 2014. Spatial trends in flooding resulted in higher soil organic matter, porosity, and total nitrogen and carbon in low elevations. Nutrient processes and NH 4 + and NO 3 − availability, however, were best explained by vegetation type and time after flooding. Phalaris plots maintained higher rates of nitrification and higher concentrations of available NH 4 + and NO 3 − . These results suggest that invasion by Phalaris may make nitrogen more readily available and could help to reinforce this species' persistence in floodplain wetlands. They also raise the possibility that Phalaris may decrease floodplain N storage capacity and influence downstream transport of N to coastal zones.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Life history constraints explain negative relationship between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

Resource availability constrains the life history strategies available to organisms and may thereby limit population growth rates and productivity. We used this conceptual framework to explore the mechanisms driving recently reported negative relationships between fish productivity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes. We studied populations of bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) in a set of lakes with DOC concentrations ranging from 3 to 24 mg/L; previous work has demonstrated that primary and secondary productivity of food webs is negatively related to DOC concentration across this gradient. For each population, we quantified individual growth rate, age at maturity, age‐specific fecundity, maximum age, length‐weight and length‐egg size relationships, and other life history characteristics. We observed a strong negative relationship between maximum size and DOC concentration; for instance, fish reached masses of 150 to 260 g in low‐DOC lakes but <120 g in high‐DOC lakes. Relationships between fecundity and length, and between egg size and length, were constant across the DOC gradient. Because fish in high‐DOC lakes reached smaller sizes but had similar fecundity and egg size at a given size, their total lifetime fecundity was as much as two orders of magnitude lower than fish in low‐DOC lakes. High DOC concentrations appeared to constrain the range of bluegill life history strategies available; populations in high‐DOC lakes always had low initial growth rates and high ages at maturity, whereas populations in low‐DOC showed higher variability in these traits. This was also the case for the intrinsic rates of natural increase of these populations, which were always low at the high end of the DOC gradient. The potentially lower capacity for fish populations in high‐DOC lakes to recover from exploitation has clear implications for the sustainable management of recreational fisheries in the face of considerable spatial heterogeneity and ongoing temporal change in lake DOC concentrations.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Flood of July 2016 in northern Wisconsin and the Bad River Reservation

Heavy rain fell across northern Wisconsin and the Bad River Reservation on July 11, 2016, as a result of several rounds of thunderstorms. The storms caused major flooding in the Bad River Basin and nearby tributaries along the south shore of Lake Superior. Rainfall totals were 8–10 inches or more and most of the rain fell in an 8-hour period. A streamgage on the Bad River near Odanah, Wisconsin, rose from 300 cubic feet per second to a record peak streamflow of 40,000 cubic feet per second in only 15 hours. Following the storms and through September 2016, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey and Bad River Tribe Natural Resources Department recovered and documented 108 high-water marks near the Bad River Reservation. Many of these high-water marks were used to create three flood-inundation maps for the Bad River, Beartrap Creek, and Denomie Creek for the Bad River Reservation in the vicinity of the community of Odanah.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr −1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr −1 ). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr −1 ), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr −1 to 0.035°C yr −1 , SD: 0.034°C yr −1 ). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Water-quality and lake-stage data for Wisconsin lakes, water years 2012–2013

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with local and other agencies, collects data at selected lakes throughout Wisconsin. These data, accumulated over many years, provide a data base for developing an improved understanding of the water quality of lakes. To make these data available to interested parties outside the USGS, the data are published annually in this report series. The locations of water-quality and lake-stage stations in Wisconsin for water year 2012 are shown in figure 1. A water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30. It is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the period October 1, 2011 through September 30, 2012, is called “water year 2012.” The purpose of this report is to provide information about the chemical and physical characteristics of Wisconsin lakes. Data that have been collected at specific lakes, and information to aid in the interpretation of those data, are included in this report. Data collected include measurements of in-lake water quality and lake stage. Time series of Secchi depths, surface total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations collected during non-frozen periods are included for all lakes. Graphs of vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance are included for sites where these parameters were measured. Descriptive information for each lake includes: location of the lake, area of the lake’s watershed, period for which data are available, revisions to previously published records, and pertinent remarks. Additional data, such as streamflow and water quality in tributary and outlet streams of some of the lakes, are published online at http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/wi/nwis . Water-resources data, including stage and discharge data at most streamflow-gaging stations, are available online. The Wisconsin Water Science Center’s home page is at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wisconsin-water-science-center . Information on the Wisconsin Water Science Center’s Lakes Program is found at http://wi.water.usgs.gov/lakes/index.html and http://wi.water.usgs.gov/projects/index.html .

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Water-quality and lake-stage data for Wisconsin lakes, water year 2014

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with local and other agencies, collects data at selected lakes throughout Wisconsin. These data, accumulated over many years, provide a database for developing an improved understanding of the water quality of lakes. To make these data available to interested parties outside the USGS, the data are published annually in this report series. The locations of water-quality and lake-stage stations in Wisconsin for water year 2014 are shown in figure 1. A water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30. It is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Thus, the period October 1, 2013, through September 30, 2014, is called “water year 2014.” The purpose of this report is to provide information about the chemical and physical characteristics of Wisconsin lakes. Data that have been collected at specific lakes, and information to aid in the interpretation of those data, are included in this report. Data collected include measurements of in-lake water quality and lake stage. Time series of Secchi depths, surface total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a concentrations collected during nonfrozen periods are included for many lakes. Graphs of vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and specific conductance are included for sites where these parameters were measured. Descriptive information for each lake includes the location of the lake, area of the lake’s watershed, period for which data are available, revisions to previously published records, and pertinent remarks. Additional data, such as streamflow and water quality in tributary and outlet streams of some of the lakes, are published online at http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/wi/nwis . Water-resources data, including stage and discharge data at most streamflow-gaging stations, are available online. The Wisconsin Water Science Center’s home page is at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wisconsin-water-science-center . Information about the Wisconsin Water Science Center’s Lakes Program is found at http://wi.water.usgs.gov/lakes/index.html and http://wi.water.usgs.gov/projects/index.html .

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Simulation of groundwater flow in the glacial aquifer system of northeastern Wisconsin with variable model complexity

The U.S. Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment seeks to map estimated intrinsic susceptibility of the glacial aquifer system of the conterminous United States. Improved understanding of the hydrogeologic characteristics that explain spatial patterns of intrinsic susceptibility, commonly inferred from estimates of groundwater age distributions, is sought so that methods used for the estimation process are properly equipped. An important step beyond identifying relevant hydrogeologic datasets, such as glacial geology maps, is to evaluate how incorporation of these resources into process-based models using differing levels of detail could affect resulting simulations of groundwater age distributions and, thus, estimates of intrinsic susceptibility. This report describes the construction and calibration of three groundwater-flow models of northeastern Wisconsin that were developed with differing levels of complexity to provide a framework for subsequent evaluations of the effects of process-based model complexity on estimations of groundwater age distributions for withdrawal wells and streams. Preliminary assessments, which focused on the effects of model complexity on simulated water levels and base flows in the glacial aquifer system, illustrate that simulation of vertical gradients using multiple model layers improves simulated heads more in low-permeability units than in high-permeability units. Moreover, simulation of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields in coarse-grained and some fine-grained glacial materials produced a larger improvement in simulated water levels in the glacial aquifer system compared with simulation of uniform hydraulic conductivity within zones. The relation between base flows and model complexity was less clear; however, the relation generally seemed to follow a similar pattern as water levels. Although increased model complexity resulted in improved calibrations, future application of the models using simulated particle tracking is anticipated to evaluate if these model design considerations are similarly important for understanding the primary modeling objective - to simulate reasonable groundwater age distributions.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Radiocarbon ages of terrestrial gastropods extend duration of ice-free conditions at the Two Creeks forest bed, Wisconsin, USA

Analysis of terrestrial gastropods that underlie the late Pleistocene Two Creeks forest bed (~ 13,800–13,500 cal yr BP) in eastern Wisconsin, USA provides evidence for a mixed tundra-taiga environment prior to formation of the taiga forest bed. Ten new AMS 14 C analyses on terrestrial gastropod shells indicate the mixed tundra-taiga environment persisted from ~ 14,500 to 13,900 cal yr BP. The Twocreekan climatic substage, representing ice-free conditions on the shore of Lake Michigan, therefore began near the onset of peak warming conditions during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial and lasted ~ 1000 yr, nearly 600 yr longer than previously thought. These results provide important data for understanding the response of continental ice sheets to global climate forcing and demonstrate the potential of using terrestrial gastropod fossils for both environmental reconstruction and age control in late Quaternary sediments.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Beaver colony density trends on the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest, 1987 – 2013

The North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) is a managed species in the United States. In northern Wisconsin, as part of the state-wide beaver management program, the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest removes beavers from targeted trout streams on U.S. Forest Service lands. However, the success of this management program has not been evaluated. Targeted removals comprise only 3% of the annual beaver harvest, a level of effort that may not affect the beaver population. We used colony location data along Forest streams from 1987–2013 (Nicolet, northeast Wisconsin) and 1997–2013 (Chequamegon, northwest Wisconsin) to assess trends in beaver colony density on targeted trout streams compared to non-targeted streams. On the Chequamegon, colony density on non-targeted trout and non-trout streams did not change over time, while colony density on targeted trout streams declined and then stabilized. On the Nicolet, beaver colony density decreased on both non-targeted streams and targeted trout streams. However, colony density on targeted trout streams declined faster. The impact of targeted trapping was similar across the two sides of the Forest (60% reduction relative to non-targeted trout streams). Exploratory analyses of weather influences found that very dry conditions and severe winters were associated with transient reductions in beaver colony density on non-targeted streams on both sides of the Forest. Our findings may help land management agencies weigh more finely calibrated beaver control measures against continued large-scale removal programs.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Sedimentology, sequence-stratigraphy, and geochemical variations in the Mesoproterozoic Nonesuch Formation, northern Wisconsin, USA

We use core descriptions and portable X-ray fluorescence analyses to identify lithofacies and stratigraphic surfaces for the Mesoproterozoic Nonesuch Formation within the Ashland syncline, Wisconsin. We group lithofacies into facies associations and construct a sequence stratigraphic framework based on lithofacies stacking and stratigraphic surfaces. The fluvial-alluvial facies association (upper Copper Harbor Conglomerate) is overlain across a transgressive surface by the fluctuating-profundal facies association (lower Nonesuch Formation). The fluctuating-profundal facies association comprises a retrogradational sequence set overlain across a maximum flooding surface by an aggradational-progradational sequence set comprising fluctuating-profundal, fluvial-lacustrine, and fluvial-alluvial facies associations (middle Nonesuch through lower Freda Formations). Lithogeochemistry supports sedimentologic and stratigraphic interpretations. Fe/S molar ratios reflect the oxidation state of the lithofacies; values are most depleted above the maximum flooding surface where lithofacies are chemically reduced and are greatest in the chemically oxidized lithofacies. Si/Al and Zr/Al molar ratios reflect the relative abundance of detrital heavy minerals vs. clay minerals; greater values correlate with larger grain size. Vertical facies association stacking records depositional environments that evolved from fluvial and alluvial, to balanced-fill lake, to overfilled lake, and returning to fluvial and alluvial. Elsewhere in the basin, where accommodation was greatest, some volume of fluvial-lacustrine facies is likely present below the transgressive stratigraphic surface. This succession of continental and lake-basin types indicates a predominant tectonic driver of basin evolution. Lithofacies distribution and geochemistry indicate deposition within an asymmetric half-graben bounded on the east by a west-dipping growth fault. While facies assemblages are lacustrine and continental, periodic marine incursions are probable, especially across maximum transgressive surfaces. We demonstrate a sequence-stratigraphic approach may be applied to fine-grained Precambrian sediments using traditional rock description and supporting lithogeochemistry. Identification of a characteristic lithofacies succession in Mesoproterozoic sediments demonstrates fundamental controls commonly interpreted for Phanerozoic lake systems may be extended into the Precambrian. These controls result in a predictable association of lithofacies, with distinct physical, biological, and geochemical properties. This has regional significance for carbon sequestration and the distribution of mineral and hydrocarbon resources and broader significance for addressing Mesoproterozoic paleogeographic reconstructions and questions related to the evolution of terrestrial life.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Grassland bird productivity in warm season grass fields in southwest Wisconsin

Surrogate grasslands established through federal set-aside programs, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide important habitat for grassland birds. Warm season grass CRP fields as a group have the potential for providing a continuum of habitat structure for breeding birds, depending on how the fields are managed and their floristic composition. We studied the nesting activity of four obligate grassland bird species, Bobolink ( Dolichonyx oryzivorus ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ), and Henslow's Sparrow ( A. henslowii ), in relation to vegetative composition and fire management in warm season CRP fields in southwest Wisconsin during 2009–2011. Intraspecific variation in apparent nest density was related to the number of years since the field was burned. Apparent Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest in the breeding season immediately following spring burns, apparent Henslow's Sparrow nest density was highest 1 y post burn, and apparent Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark nest densities were higher in post fire years one to three. Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest on sites with more diverse vegetation, specifically prairie forbs, and on sites with shorter less dense vegetation. Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark, and Henslow's Sparrow apparent nest densities were higher on sites with deeper litter; litter was the vegetative component that was most affected by spring burns. Overall nest success was 0.487 for Bobolink (22 d nesting period), 0.478 for Eastern Meadowlark (25 d nesting period), 0.507 for Grasshopper Sparrow (22 d nesting period), and 0.151 for Henslow's Sparrow (21 d nesting period). The major nest predators were grassland-associated species: thirteen-lined ground squirrel ( Ictidomys tridecemlineatus ), striped skunk ( Mephitis mephitis ), milk snake ( Lampropeltis triangulum ), American badger ( Taxidea taxus ), and western fox snake ( Elaphe vulpina ). Overall depredation rate was not affected by the number of years since the site had been burned. The diversity of vegetation on warm season CRP fields created by management using fire provides a continuum of structure for obligate grassland birds to use for breeding and habitat for a diversity of nest predators.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2017

Groundwater flow model for the Little Plover River basin in Wisconsin’s Central Sands

The Little Plover River is a groundwater-fed stream in the sand plains region of central Wisconsin. In this region, sandy sediment deposited during or soon after the last glaciation forms an important unconfined sand and gravel aquifer. This aquifer supplies water for numerous high-capacity irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells that support a thriving agricultural industry. In recent years the addition of many new wells, combined with observed diminished flows in the Little Plover and other nearby rivers, has raised concerns about the impacts of the wells on groundwater levels and on water levels and flows in nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands. Diverse stakeholder groups, including well operators, Growers, environmentalists, local land owners, and regulatory and government officials have sought a better understanding of the local groundwater-surface water system and have a shared desire to balance the water needs of the he liagricultural, industrial, and urban users with the maintenance and protection of groundwater-dependent natural resources. To help address these issues, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources requested that the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and U.S. Geological Survey cooperatively develop a groundwater flow model that could be used to demonstrate the relationships among groundwater, surface water, and well withdrawals and also be a tool for testing and evaluating alternative water management strategies for the central sands region. Because of an abundance of previous studies, data availability, local interest, and existing regulatory constraints the model focuses on the Little Plover River watershed, but the modeling methodology developed during this study can apply to much of the larger central sands of Wisconsin. The Little Plover River groundwater flow model simulates three-dimensional groundwater movement in and around the Little Plover River basin under steady-state and transient conditions. This model explicitly includes all high-capacity wells in the model domain and simulates seasonal variations in recharge and well pumping. The model represents the Little Plover River, and other significant streams and drainage ditches in the model domain, as fully connected to the groundwater system, computes stream base flow resulting from groundwater discharge, and routes the flow along the stream channel. A separate soil-water-balance (SWB) model was used to develop groundwater recharge arrays as input for the groundwater flow model. The SWB model uses topography, soils, land use, and climatic data to estimate recharge as deep drainage from the soil zone. The SWB model explicitly includes recharge originating as irrigation water, and computes irrigation using techniques similar to those used by local irrigation operators. The groundwater flow model uses the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW modeling code which is freely available, widely accepted, and commonly used by the groundwater community. The groundwater flow model and the SWB model use identical high-resolution numerical grids having model cells 100 feet on a side, with physical properties assigned to each grid cell. This grid allows accurate geographic placement of wells, streams, and other model features. The 3-dimensional grid has three layers; layers 1 and 2 represent the sand and gravel aquifer and layer 3 represents the underlying sandstone. The distribution of material properties in the model (hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, etc.) comes from previous published geologic studies of the region, updated by calibration to recent streamflow and groundwater level data. The SWB model operates on a daily time step. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to monthly stress periods with time steps ranging from 1 to 16 days. More detailed time discretization is possible. The groundwater model was calibrated to water-level and streamflow data collected during 2013 and 2014 by adjusting model parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, storage, and recharge) until the model produced a conditionally optimal fit between field observations and model output, subject to consistency with previously published geologic studies. Calibration was performed under both steady and transient conditions, and used a sophisticated parameter-estimation procedure (PEST) for the calibration process and to identify important model parameters. For the Little Plover River, the two most important parameters are the global recharge multiplier and the hydraulic conductivity of the stream bed. The calibrated model produces water-level and mass-balance results that are consistent with field observations and previous studies of the area. The completed model is a powerful tool for testing and demonstrating alternative water-management scenarios. Example model applications described in this report include simulating how the cumulative impacts of pumping and land-use change have affected average baseflow in the Little Plover River. Depletion-potential mapping represents a method for predicting which wells and well locations have the greatest impact on nearby surface-water resources. The completed model is publicly available, along with a companion user’s guide to assist with its operation, at http://wgnhs.org/littleplover- river-groundwater-model.

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