Geology topics

Research about Washington

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Washington.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2025

High-frequency and region-scale simulations of large (Mw7+) earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault, Washington, USA

We simulate ground shaking in western Washington State from hypothetical M w 7.0–7.5 earthquakes on the southern Whidbey Island fault (SWIF). Ground motions are modeled considering kinematic source distributions on a complex fault plane, a 3D seismic velocity model, and region‐specific soil velocity models. We run simulations with varying model resolutions, including regional‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼1 Hz and local‐scale simulations with a maximum‐modeled frequency of ∼2.5 Hz. Additional local‐scale simulations are run considering high‐resolution surface topography. We explore how source parameters (i.e., magnitude, hypocenter location, and dip direction) and 3D velocity structure impact peak shaking intensity and its variability. In particular, we find that earthquakes on the SWIF would likely produce strong shaking throughout the populated Puget Lowland, including in the cities of Everett, Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma, Washington. Simulated short‐period ( T ≤ 2 s) spectral accelerations are strong throughout the Puget Lowland, and long‐period shaking ( T ≥ 5 s) is strong in the deep regional sedimentary basins, especially the Everett and Seattle basins. Source parameters strongly influence intra‐ and interevent variability in response, primarily through changes in source and site geometry, as well as rupture directivity. We also note a potential coupling between rupture directivity and basin effects, wherein directivity pulses are seemingly guided through the region’s deep, interconnected sedimentary basins. Overall, this work highlights the impacts of 3D source, path, and site effects on seismic hazard in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and substantially expands the catalog of simulated ground motions for Puget Sound area crustal faults.

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USGS2025

Land use and soil characteristics are associated with increased risk of treponeme-associated hoof disease in elk

Environments can shape the occurrence and extent of disease outbreaks in wildlife. We studied the effects of environmental features on the occurrence of treponeme-associated hoof disease (TAHD), an emerging infectious disease of free-ranging elk ( Cervus canadensis ), in southwestern Washington, USA. During the 2016–2022 harvest seasons, successful elk hunters returned mandatory harvest reports and noted the presence or absence of hoof abnormalities indicative of TAHD. We used generalized linear models and an information-theoretic approach to model selection to relate (1) the spatial distribution of hoof abnormalities to features of landscapes (land cover, topography, and soil characteristics) and (2) the temporal distribution of hoof abnormalities to precipitation during the year preceding the harvest season. The probability of hoof disease increased with soil clay content and proportion of agricultural land (88% of model weight). We found no conclusive evidence for an effect of precipitation on the occurrence of TAHD, but this could relate to relatively high annual precipitation (>140 cm) in the study area. Nevertheless, disease cases may have been negatively associated with precipitation during February–June (55% of model weight). Soils and land management practices may increase the risk of hoof disease by promoting the survival of pathogens that cause TAHD, the susceptibility of elk to infection, or the intensity of pathogen transmission among elk when congregated. Focusing on areas where the risk of disease is greatest may facilitate the detection of TAHD during surveillance. Likewise, removing infected elk and dispersing uninfected elk from areas with the greatest risk of disease may enhance the effectiveness of efforts to reduce transmission. Basing this work on the knowledge that disease risk is modified by factors of hosts, pathogens, and environments, this study serves as an application of the epidemiological triad framework to better understand the ecology and epidemiology of an emerging infectious disease in wildlife.

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USGS2025

Topographic, climatic, and age controls on the reworking of volcanic debris avalanche deposits

Volcanic debris avalanches have deposited as much as 1000 km 3 of largely unconsolidated material on landscapes and remodeled existing drainage networks. The landscape disturbances created by these events pose severe, cascading downstream sedimentation hazards that can require long-term societal management, as demonstrated by decades of observations and ongoing interventions after the deposition of the 1980 debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens (United States). There, post-emplacement sediment yields caused by deposit erosion remain several times above estimated background yield and lakes impounded by the deposit still pose threats of downstream flooding. Despite the length and quality of measurements of the geomorphic evolution and consequent sediment release at Mount St. Helens, the long-term trajectory of drainage network evolution across, and the associated sediment release from, large volcanic debris avalanches remains uncertain. Observations and modeling at Mount St. Helens, however, indicate channel instability can persist many decades and may persist for centuries to millennia. We examined potential influences on the erosion and preservation of volcanic debris avalanche deposits (VDADs) by mapping valley networks developed on 89 VDADs selected from volcanic arcs across the world and spanning a variety of topographic settings and climate regimes. Using the best available topographic data (1 m lidar to 30 m radar-derived data depending on location) and aerial imagery, we estimated the areas of deposits that have been reworked relative to initial deposit footprints as a proxy for post-emplacement erosion. We found that a primary influence on reworking is the topographic confinement of the VDAD: confined, valley-filling deposits are systematically more reworked than unconfined deposits. There is no apparent relationship between deposit age and reworking for valley-filling deposits, indicating that drainage networks on deposits in confined topographic settings like at Mount St. Helens reform rapidly after emplacement. In contrast, our data indicate that the reworking of unconfined deposits has a monotonic positive relationship with age. This observation agrees with a conceptual model of channel formation at Mount Taranaki (New Zealand), which posits that an unconfined VDAD created a topographic high that initially (e.g., 2–8 ky for the Pungarehu formation at Taranaki) diverted erosion to the deposit margins. We found only a weak to moderate relationship between reworking and modern precipitation regimes, which may reflect differences between modern and paleo-precipitation conditions at many of our study sites. We also found no correlation between the size (surface area or volume) of deposits and the degree of reworking. The work presented here implies that downstream cascading sediment hazards from landscape-resetting processes like VDADs (such as thick, extensive pyroclastic flow deposits) depend on the relief and organization of the surrounding landscape.

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USGS2025

Modeling floods, sediment entrainment, and downstream debris flows from hypothetical breaches of the blockage at Spirit Lake, Washington

This report describes a modeling investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of hazards in the Toutle and Cowlitz River valleys posed by hypothetical outburst floods from Spirit Lake, Washington. A massive debris avalanche resulting from the collapse of Mount St. Helens’ north flank during the May 18, 1980, eruption blocked Spirit Lake’s natural outlet into the North Fork Toutle River. Lacking a natural outlet, subsequent runoff in the Spirit Lake watershed contributed to a rising lake level, elevating the potential for debris-dam breaching or catastrophic failure. The influence of highly erodible bed sediment in the upper North Fork Toutle River on downstream flood and debris-flow dynamics and extent is assessed in this study. Simulations of clear-water (non-erosive) outburst floods were used as a baseline and compared to erosive flows that entrain large volumes of material and transition into debris flows along their flow path, revealing the influence of entrainment on hazard extent. Clear-water floods were modeled with the shallow water equations. Erosive flows were modeled with a two-phase granular fluid model that accommodates mobilization and incorporation of sediment from the bed into the overlying flow and resultant changes in flow rheology across a wide range of solid concentrations, from dilute suspensions to dense-granular debris flows. Entrainment of bed material was found to substantially increase the total flow volume (total volume of transported water and sediment is approximately 150 percent of the water volume for non-erosive flows). Erosive flows are shown to exhibit higher flow-front speeds and faster downstream arrival times than non-erosive flows, consistent with volume amplification effects near the actively mobilizing flow front. However, the larger total volume of transported material does not necessarily lead to an enhancement of total volume throughput (cumulative discharge) or inundation extent (total affected area) for all locations along the entire flow path; while entrainment leads to the displacement of a larger volume of material overall, much of this dislocated material (water and sediment) deposits upstream from the distal extent of the flows. These results are consistent with energetic considerations of initial potential energy and granular shear resistance.

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USGS2025

Rebuilding a volcano one lava flow at a time—Visualizing the lava dome-building eruption in the crater of Mount St. Helens, 1982–1986

Between 1980 and 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey made a series of 1:2,000-scale topographic contour maps from aerial photographic surveys to monitor the eruption. These maps were made for operational purposes and were not intended for publication. Since then, advances in technology made it possible to digitize the original, highly detailed hardcopy maps and derive new digital data elevation models of the surface of the lava dome. These digital elevation models allow for the visualization of the progression of the eruption and reveal the rubbly, chaotic surface of the lava flows and dome. Additionally, these new data help fill gaps in the long-term record of topographic changes that have occurred at the volcano since the May 18, 1980, eruption.

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USGS2025

Bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter mapping of Lake Sammamish, Washington, during USGS field activity 2021-656-FA

In 2021, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acquired bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter data within Lake Sammamish, Washington. Mapping was completed to find evidence of past earthquakes such as underwater landslides and is part of a larger USGS project to understand the overall geologic hazards history of the Cascadia Margin region. The survey was conducted using the USGS research vessel Parke Snavely outfitted with an interferometric sidescan-sonar system for swath mapping. Three estimates of bathymetric uncertainty were calculated from the post-processed bathymetric data. This report provides a summary of the mapping mission.

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USGS2025

Colored shaded-relief bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of Lake Sammamish, Washington

Evidence of strong earthquakes (such as underwater landslides and associated deposits) may be recorded within the lacustrine sediments of Pacific Northwest lakes. The floor of Lake Sammamish, Wash., an approximately 11 kilometer (6.8 mile) long, 2 kilometer (1.2 mile) wide, and 35 meter (114.8 feet) deep lake located in a populated region just east of Seattle, was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey in November of 2021 to search for evidence of past earthquakes. Mapping was conducted using a SWATHplus-M 234-kHz interferometric side-scan sonar system was pole-mounted on the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Parke Snavely, and the system collected full-coverage bathymetric and acoustic backscatter data, which were processed to 2-meter spatial resolution. Two maps were created, a colored shaded-relief bathymetric map showing lake floor morphology (sheet 1), and an acoustic-backscatter map showing backscatter intensities (sheet 2). The results may then be utilized together to investigate past earthquake activity.

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USGS2025

Evaluation of juvenile salmon behavior to inform downstream fish passage development at a high head dam

F ish passage development is a priority at Tieton Dam, on the Tieton River in Washington state, because passage options were not included when the dam was constructed nearly 100 years ago. To inform downstream passage design, we conducted a study to evaluate migration and near-dam behavior of juvenile salmon. The primary goal of the study was to determine how fish approached the dam and to identify areas where they congregated. In its current configuration, water is passed through a deep intake located approximately 548 m upstream of the dam, so there was interest in determining if juvenile salmon spent more time near the intake or at the dam. We found that tagged fish primarily entered the dam forebay offshore and arrived at the dam near the spillway on the left bank of the reservoir. Tagged fish had extended residence times in the forebay and moved repeatedly between the intake and the dam. Using thermal profile data, we inferred that juvenile salmon likely occupied the upper 5 m of the water column during May and June before moving to deeper portions of the water column (10–27 m) during July–September when the reservoir became thermally stratified. We found that a small percentage of tagged fish passed the dam when the reservoir was rapidly drawn down during August–October, but additional research may be needed to fully assess entrainment risk through the intake. These findings suggest that downstream fish passage could be developed at Tieton Dam with a high probability of success, given that most fish survived reservoir passage and spent considerable time near the dam where they would be available to discover and utilize new passage routes.

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USGS2025

A soil velocity model for improved ground motion simulations in the U. S. Pacific Northwest

Near-surface seismic velocity structure may significantly impact the intensity, duration, and frequency content of ground shaking during an earthquake. In this study, we compile 649 shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles throughout the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia (PNW) and use these measured profiles to develop a representative soil velocity model for four major Holocene soil provinces: Puget Lowlands, Willamette Valley, fill and alluvium, and `other' soils. The resulting soil velocity model shows good agreement to measured data for a wide range of site conditions, with variability between different geologic domains reflecting fundamental differences in depositional environments. We then show that using this regional soil velocity model in simulations of the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually, Washington earthquake improves the fit to observed high-frequency (≥ 0.5 Hz) ground motions in the Puget Sound region compared to simulations that do not incorporate shallow (≤ 200 m) seismic velocity structure. Overall, this work shows that incorporating localized soil velocity profiles into seismic velocity models is important for accurately estimating high-frequency ground motion and regional seismic hazard in earthquake simulations. Future earthquake simulations and hazard studies in the PNW could incorporate these soil velocity profiles to capture the region's distinct site response characteristics.

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USGS2025

Perceptions and management of chronic wasting disease in Washington State: A survey of cervid hunters

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurological disease caused by a misfolded protein, or prion, and is found in cervids (e.g., deer, elk, moose). It represents a serious threat to cervid populations and is one of the most important ungulate management issues facing state wildlife management agencies. Issues associated with CWD can affect many groups including hunters, tribal groups, biologists, rehabilitators, and farmers among others, and many can play an essential role in CWD management (e.g., hunters can help with cervid population control methods). In 2021, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) adopted the CWD Management Plan for Washington State, which specifically called for incorporating human dimensions of disease management with the ecological and epidemiological elements in CWD management. It is essential to develop a strong human dimensions component as management actions in other states have shown that when the public is not appropriately engaged, the probability of success is diminished. The study presented here sought to understand public preferences and perceptions of CWD and CWD management. We conducted 15 key constituent interviews and deployed a survey instrument in summer of 2023. (CWD was detected in Washington in July 2024, but this survey was completed ahead of that detection). The survey was emailed to 165,700 resident hunters in Washington State who had purchased a big game license since 2015 and the results presented below are based on interviews and completed survey responses from 7,403 individuals.

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USGS2025

Spatial mapping of dissolved methane using an in situ sensor in Puget Sound

Release of methane, as gas bubbles or in the dissolved phase, from the seafloor has been observed in coastal waters (< 200 m) and deep ocean basins (> 1000 m). Methane dissolution within the water column affects the geochemistry of the surrounding water, leading to localized oxygen loss and potential escape to the atmosphere, particularly from shallower sites. Traditional methods for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane rely on collecting discrete water samples for ship- or land-based ex situ analysis and post processing. Here, we report on the use of a reduced response time, in situ methane sensor, the Sensor for Aqueous Gases in the Environment (SAGE), for detecting and quantifying dissolved methane concentrations in a wide range of seafloor environments. During a Fall 2022 research cruise on the R/V Thomas G. Thompson in Puget Sound, SAGE was integrated onto a towed conductivity/temperature/depth rosette and deep-sea camera system with live-stream 1 Hz telemetry and used to spatially map the concentration of methane approximately 1 m above the seafloor. The site had been previously identified as an active methane plume field characterized by gas bubbles, fluid venting, and a faulted seabed. The widespread background dissolved concentration of methane measured by SAGE was 83 nM, and a range of 78–670 nM was observed throughout the survey. The results highlight the capacity of SAGE to map the spatial and temporal variability of dissolved methane concentrations in situ and to identify and localize sites of variable methane emissions from the seafloor.

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USGS2025

Dynamic feedbacks between river meandering and landsliding in northwestern Washington glacial terraces

Landsliding in river valleys poses unique risks for cascading hazards and can damage infrastructure and cause fatalities. In postglacial valleys, many landslides are posited to occur in relation to lateral river erosion, but the dynamics of fluvial-hillslope interactions are not well understood. Here, we investigate a section of the Nooksack River in western Washington State where the channel is flanked by landslide-prone glacial terraces similar to those that failed in the 2014 State Route 530 “Oso” landslide. We map 216 landslides through time across 17 aerial imagery data sets (1933–2022) and analyze them in relation to river meandering and curvature. We observe dynamic feedbacks between lateral river meandering and valley-adjacent landsliding. Terrace lateral retreat rates of up to 25 m/year owing to combined fluvial erosion and slope failure occur on pinned, outer meander bends immediately downstream from peaks in river curvature (>0.0075 1/m); these locations are predisposed to both shallow and deep-seated landslides. Deep-seated landslides extending 17%–32% of the active valley width into the floodplain can displace the river away from the floodplain margin and change the channel planform. River-displacing landslides relocate meanders up- or downstream, thereby conditioning the location of subsequent landslides. This conceptual model of coupled landslide-driven meander displacement and valley-adjacent landsliding is exemplified across western Washington river systems. The distance between up- and downstream valley-adjacent landsliding scales with valley width, meander wavelength, and terrace height. Our results can advance our understanding of the river-hillslope interface in landscape evolution and can be used to inform hazard management in river corridors.

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USGS2025

Estimated annual abundance of migratory Peale's Peregrine Falcons in coastal Washington, USA

Following the recovery of Peregrine Falcons ( Falco peregrinus ), the US Fish and Wildlife Service began a process to allow “take” (capture) of wild peregrines for falconry in the United States. Recently, that effort involved generating updated estimates of the collective abundance of the three North American peregrine subspecies: F. p. anatum , F. p. tundrius , and F. p. pealei (Peale's Peregrine Falcon). Because of the more limited distribution of F. p. pealei , we conducted an analysis specific to its geographic range. We analyzed data from a long-term banding and resighting program on three beaches on the southern coast of Washington, USA, to estimate the annual abundance of migrating and overwintering F. p. pealei , using the capture histories of 250 Peregrine Falcons, nearly all of which were captured during 1277 vehicle surveys between 1995 and 2024. Because we studied an open population of migratory individuals, we used a zero-inflated Poisson log-normal mark-resight model to estimate annual abundance. For the analyses, we partitioned our survey data into sighting periods, each of which extended from 1 September of one year to 31 May of the next. We anticipated that first-year F. p. pealei would be identified for falconry take, and our annual abundance estimates for first-year birds of this subspecies ranged from a high of 24.8 ± 6.1 (SE) individuals in the 2014–2015 sighting period to a low of 1.9 ± 1.4 individuals in the 2023–2024 sighting period. Peregrine Falcon abundance varied annually and appeared to decline during the last two sighting periods. Our sighting rate of marked peregrines was negatively associated with Bald Eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) encounter rate. There was a lesser relationship to human activity, and we suspect the change in sighting rate was a behavioral response by Peregrine Falcons to the threat of kleptoparasitism by Bald Eagles. We currently lack comprehensive information about the natal origin of the individual peregrines in our study area, which prevented us from assessing the degree to which falconry take from the pool of falcons migrating to or through Washington might potentially impact local or regional abundances. Although a better understanding of natal origins is needed, our data add clarity to the migration and overwinter abundance of F. p. pealei on the Washington coast and may inform decisions about the take of this subspecies for falconry.

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USGS2025

Cascading consequences and interventions for hazards after wildfire in Okanogan County, Washington

This report details the application of the chains of consequences method within the postfire hazard context after the 2021 Cedar Creek and Muckamuck Fires around Okanogan County, Washington. The U.S. Geological Survey Social and Economic Analysis branch convened 20 stakeholders with content- and context-specific knowledge related to these fires and their postfire hazards in an April 2023 Postfire Hazards Chains of Consequences Workshop. Guided by U.S. Geological Survey facilitators, workshop participants identified the cascading consequences of a specific postfire hazard scenario before brainstorming interventions to reduce the likelihood and severity of those consequences. The participants worked across disciplinary boundaries to identify gaps in understanding around cascading postfire hazard consequences and to brainstorm multidisciplinary interventions.

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USGS2025

Forecasting dynamics of a recolonizing wolf population under different management strategies

Species recovery can be influenced by a wide variety of factors, such that predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of recovering species can be exceedingly difficult. These predictions, however, are valuable for decision makers tasked with managing species and determining their legal status. We applied a spatially explicit projection model to estimate population growth and viability of gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) from 2021 to 2070 in the state of Washington, USA, where wolves have been naturally recolonizing since the establishment of the first resident pack in 2008. Using this model, we predicted the effects of 12 scenarios relating to management actions (e.g., lethal removals by the state agency, translocation, recreational harvest) and system uncertainties (e.g., immigration from out of state, disease) on the probability of meeting Washington's wolf recovery goals, the probability of extinction, and other metrics related to population status. Population recovery was defined under Washington's Wolf Conservation and Management Plan as four breeding pairs in each of three recovery regions and three additional breeding pairs anywhere in the state. The baseline and two translocation scenarios indicated a high (> 90%) probability of wolf recovery in Washington by 2070, but scenarios related to harvest mortality (removal of 5% of the population every 6 months), increased lethal removals (removal of 8.53% of the population across the state each year), and cessation of immigration from out of state resulted in probabilities of < 0.20 (0.01, 0.04, and 0.17, respectively) of meeting recovery goals by 2070. Only two scenarios of 12 (increased harvest and lethal removals scenarios) resulted in a geometric mean of population growth ≤ 1, indicating long-term population stability or growth for most scenarios. Our results suggest that wolves will continue to recolonize Washington and that recovery goals are likely to be met so long as harvest and lethal removals are not at unsustainable levels and adjacent populations support immigration into Washington.

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USGS2025

Using the D-Claw software package to model lahars in the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond, Mount Baker, Washington

Lahars, or volcanic mudflows, are the most hazardous eruption-related phenomena that will affect communities living along rivers that originate on Mount Baker. In the past 15,000 years, the largest lahars from Mount Baker have affected the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond. Here we use the physics-based D-Claw software package to model nine lahar scenarios that are initiated as water-saturated landslides between Sherman Crater and the Roman Wall on the Mount Baker edifice and flow down the Middle Fork Nooksack River. The scenarios range in volume from 1 to 260 million cubic meters and have an initial hydraulic permeability from 10 −12 to 10 −10 meters squared. Model output includes data such as flow depth, velocity, runout distance, area inundated, arrival time, and sediment concentration as well as information that allows scientists to calculate other important hydrologic characteristics such as lahar discharge. These data are important to officials who have the responsibility to plan for, or take mitigation measures against, future Mount Baker lahars. To check the validity of the D-Claw results, we compare the scenarios to known geologic information. We also compare D-Claw results with empirical models that have been used in the past to determine potential inundation areas, runout distances, and arrival times. These comparisons highlight similarities and differences between empirical and physics-based models. We also present D-Claw scenario-based animations to help scientists, officials, and lay people alike to visualize how future lahars could affect communities.

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USGS2025

A partner-driven decision support model to inform the reintroduction of bull trout

Assessments of species reintroductions involve a series of complex decisions that include human perspectives and ecological contexts. Here, we present a reintroduction assessment involving bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) using a structured decision-making process. We approached this assessment by engaging partners representing public utilities, government agencies, and Tribes with shared interests in a potential reintroduction. These individuals identified objectives, decision alternatives, and ecological scenarios that were incorporated into a co-produced simulation-based model of potential reintroduction outcomes. The model included mathematical representations of habitat availability, life history expression, and assumptions regarding constraints on potential bull trout populations. Within each recipient stream, partners chose to explore a wide range of decision alternatives and simulated scenarios affecting reintroduction success. Results suggested that 1) reintroductions using eggs or adults were most optimal, 2) adding more individuals resulted in diminishing returns, 3) access to migratory habitat could improve success, and 4) the diversity of opportunities for life history expression led to improved reintroduction opportunities. In addition, modeled scenarios indicated some recipient streams consistently produced lower abundance of reintroduced bull trout. This work contributes a novel example to a growing portfolio of reintroduction assessments that may inform future conservation for bull trout and many other species facing similar challenges.

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USGS2025

Spatial stream network modeling of water temperature within the White River Basin, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

Water temperature is a primary control on the occurrence and distribution of fish and other ectothermic aquatic species. In the Pacific Northwest, cold-water species such as Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) have specific temperature requirements during different life stages that must be met to ensure the viability of their populations. Rivers draining Mount Rainier in western Washington, including the White River along its northern flank, support a number of cold-water fish populations, but the spatial distribution of water temperatures, particularly during late-summer baseflow during August and September, and the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes regulating it are not well constrained. Spatial stream network (SSN) models, which are generalized linear models that incorporate streamwise spatial autocovariance structures, were fit to mean and 7-day average daily maximum water temperature for August and September for the White River Basin. The SSN models were calibrated using water temperature measurements collected in 2010 through 2020. The extent of the models included the White River and its tributaries upstream from its confluence with Silver Creek in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. SSN models incorporated covariates hypothesized to represent the climatic, hydrologic, and physical processes that influence water temperature. SSN models were fit to the measured data and compared to generalized linear models that lacked spatial autocovariance structures. Statistically significant covariates within the best-fit models included the proportion of ice cover and forest cover within the basin, mean August air temperature, the proportion of consolidated geologic units, and snow-water equivalent. Statistical models that included spatial autocovariance structures had better predictive performance than those that did not. Additionally, models of mean August and September water temperature had better predictive performance than those of 7-day average daily maximum temperature in August and September. Predictions of the spatial distribution of water temperature were similar between August and September with a general warming in the downstream part of the mainstem White River compared to cooler water temperatures in the high-elevation headwater streams. The proportion of ice cover emerged as an inversely related significant covariate to both mean August and September water temperature because streams that receive glacial meltwater are colder than non-glaciated streams. Water temperatures of the upper White River increased downstream and are attributed to warming of water temperature from accumulated solar radiation and inflow of non-glaciated tributaries. Estimated water temperatures for the upper White River model are 3–4 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer for tributaries, but 1–2 °C cooler for the mainstem compared to the regional-scale model. Differences between the upper White River SSN model and the regional-scale NorWeST model are attributed to the fact that the upper White River SSN included water temperature observations specific to the upper White River, whereas water temperature observations from lower elevation streams and downstream from the Mount Rainer National Park boundary were used in the regional scale model.

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