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Research about Washington

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Washington.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Long-term changes in kelp forests in an inner basin of the Salish Sea

Kelp forests form an important biogenic habitat that responds to natural and human drivers. Global concerns exist about threats to kelp forests, yet long-term information is limited and research suggests that trends are geographically distinct. We examined distribution of the bull kelp Nereocystis luetkeana over 145 years in South Puget Sound (SPS), a semi-protected inner basin in a fjord estuary complex in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We synthesized 48 historical and modern Nereocystis surveys and examined presence/absence within 1-km segments along 452 km of shoreline. Compared to the earliest baseline in 1878, Nereocystis extent in 2017 decreased 63%, with individual sub-basins showing up to 96% loss. Losses have persisted for decades, across a range of climate conditions. In recent decades, Nereocystis predominantly occurred along shorelines with intense currents and mixing, where temperature and nutrient concentrations did not reach thresholds for impacts to Nereocystis performance, and high current speeds likely excluded grazers. Losses predominated in areas with elevated temperature, lower nutrient concentrations, and relatively low current velocities. The pattern of long-term losses in SPS contrasts with stability in floating kelp abundance during the last century in an area of the Salish Sea with greater wave exposure and proximity to oceanic conditions. These findings support the hypothesis that kelp beds along wave-sheltered shorelines exhibit greater sensitivity to environmental stressors. Additionally, shorelines with strong currents and deep-water mixing may provide refugia within sheltered systems.

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USGS2021

Performance of subyearling fall Chinook salmon tagged with 8‐, 9‐, and 12‐mm passive integrated transponder tags in the Snake River

Inferences based on tagged individuals from a population are limited in part by the minimum size of fish that can be tagged. Smaller tags allow a greater proportion of a population to be represented by tagging and should reduce potential tag effects on fish performance. We evaluated different performance metrics of juvenile fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha tagged with 8‐, 9‐, and 12‐mm PIT tags in the Snake River. We did not find evidence that posttagging mortality of 45–49‐mm‐FL fish tagged with 8‐mm tags was higher than the posttagging mortality of larger fish tagged with 9‐ and 12‐mm tags. The incisions of fish tagged with 8‐mm tags using 14‐guage needles healed faster than those of fish tagged with larger tags using 12‐guage needles. For individuals that received 8‐mm tags, growth in length and mass was higher for 45–49‐mm fish than for 50–59‐mm fish and 60‐mm and larger fish. Growth of the larger size‐classes (50–59 and ≥60 mm) was also generally higher for those tagged with 8‐mm tags compared to those tagged with 9‐ and 12‐mm tags, respectively. There were no strong relationships between tag burden (i.e., tag weight expressed as a percentage of fish weight) at the time of tagging and growth metrics for any tag size or fish size‐class. Releases made to compare the detection efficiency of the three tag types in the juvenile fish bypass at Lower Granite Dam, Washington, showed that 99–100% of all fish were detected. Survival of fish from rearing areas to Lower Granite Dam generally increased with fish size and varied by year, but there was no strong evidence of a tag size effect. The 8‐mm PIT tag allowed us to represent a larger portion (i.e., 6.2–24.1%) of the subyearling fall Chinook Salmon population in the Snake River without compromising fish performance or detectability at the dam.

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USGS2021

Evaluating coexistence of fish species with coastal cutthroat trout in low order streams of western Oregon and Washington, USA

When multiple species of fish coexist there are a host of potential ways through which they may interact, yet there is often a strong focus on studies of single species without considering these interactions. For example, many studies of forestry–stream interactions in the Pacific Northwest have focused solely on the most prevalent species: Coastal cutthroat trout. To examine the potential for interactions of other fishes with coastal cutthroat trout, we conducted an analysis of 281 sites in low order streams located on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula and along the central Oregon coast. Coastal cutthroat trout and juvenile coho salmon were the most commonly found salmonid species within these streams and exhibited positive associations with each other for both presence and density. Steelhead were negatively associated with the presence of coastal cutthroat trout as well as with coho salmon and sculpins (Cottidae). Coastal cutthroat trout most frequently shared streams with juvenile coho salmon. For densities of these co-occurring species, associations between these two species were relatively weak compared to the strong influences of physical stream conditions (size and gradient), suggesting that physical conditions may have more of an influence on density than species interactions. Collectively, our analysis, along with a review of findings from prior field and laboratory studies, suggests that the net effect of interactions between coastal cutthroat trout and coho salmon do not appear to inhibit their presence or densities in small streams along the Pacific Northwest.

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USGS2021

Paleoseismic trenching reveals late quaternary kinematics of the Leech River Fault: Implications for forearc strain accumulation in Northern Cascadia

New paleoseismic trenching indicates late Quaternary oblique right‐lateral slip on the Leech River fault, southern Vancouver Island, Canada, and constrains permanent forearc deformation in northern Cascadia. A south‐to‐north reduction in northward Global Navigation Satellite System velocities and seismicity across the Olympic Mountains, Strait of Juan de Fuca (JDF), and the southern Strait of Georgia, has been used as evidence for permanent north–south crustal shortening via thrust faulting between a northward migrating southern forearc and rigid northern backstop in southwestern Canada. However, previous paleoseismic studies indicating late Quaternary oblique right‐lateral slip on west‐northwest‐striking forearc faults north of the Olympic Mountains and in the southern Strait of Georgia are more consistent with forearc deformation models that invoke oroclinal bending and(or) westward extrusion of the Olympic Mountains. To help evaluate strain further north across the Strait of JDF, we present the results from two new paleoseismic trenches excavated across the Leech River fault. In the easternmost Good Hope trench, we document a vertical fault zone and a broad anticline deforming glacial till. Comparison of till clast orientations in faulted and undeformed glacial till shows evidence for postdeposition faulted till clast rotation, indicating strike‐slip shear. The orientation of opening mode fissuring during surface rupture is consistent with right‐lateral slip and the published regional S H max "> S H max SHmax directions. Vertical separation and the formation of scarp‐derived colluvium along one fault also indicate a dip‐slip component. Radiocarbon charcoal dating within offset glacial till and scarp‐derived colluvium suggest a single surface rupturing earthquake at 9.4 ± 3.4    ka "> 9.4 ± 3.4 ka 9.4±3.4 ka ⁠ . The oblique right‐lateral slip sense inferred in the Good Hope trench is consistent with slip kinematics observed on other regional west‐northwest‐striking faults and indicates that these structures do not accommodate significant north–south shortening via thrust faulting.

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USGS2021

An assessment of vertical land movement to support coastal hazards planning in Washington state

The sea and land change elevation spatially and temporally from a multitude of processes, so it is necessary to constrain the movement of both to evaluate how coastlines will evolve and how those evolving coastlines will impact the natural and built environment over time. We combine land movement observations from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), leveling of geodetic monuments, and tide gauge records with a tectonic model of the Cascadia subduction zone to constrain absolute rates of vertical land movement in coastal Washington. We infer rates of vertical land movement in areas lacking direct observations by interpolating high-quality land movement observations and a discretely sampled interseismic locking model. Here we present a model of absolute vertical land movement that is combined with sea level rise estimates to inform local relative sea level projections on a community-scale. The most rapid vertical uplift (~3.5 mm/year) of the land is found across the northwest Olympic Peninsula, which currently outpaces sea level rise. Conversely, some areas, including a stretch of the northern Pacific Ocean coast from La Push to Kalaloch and the southern Puget Sound, are found to be subsiding at 0.5–1.0 mm/year, exacerbating the rate of relative sea level rise and thereby increasing the vulnerability of coastal communities.

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USGS2021

Comparison of simple averaging and latent class modeling to estimate the area of land cover in the presence of reference data variability

Estimates of the area or percent area of the land cover classes within a study region are often based on the reference land cover class labels assigned by analysts interpreting satellite imagery and other ancillary spatial data. Different analysts interpreting the same spatial unit will not always agree on the land cover class label that should be assigned. Two approaches for accommodating interpreter variability when estimating the area are simple averaging (SA) and latent class modeling (LCM). This study compares agreement between area estimates obtained from SA and LCM using reference data obtained by seven trained, professional interpreters who independently interpreted an annual time series of land cover reference class labels for 300 sampled Landsat pixels. We also compare the variability of the LCM and SA area estimates over different numbers of interpreters and different subsets of interpreters within each interpreter group size, and examine area estimates of three land cover classes (forest, developed, and wetland) and three change types (forest gain, forest loss, and developed gain). Differences between the area estimates obtained from SA and LCM are most pronounced for the estimates of wetland and the three change types. The percent area estimates of these rare classes were usually greater for LCM compared to SA, with the differences between LCM and SA increasing as the number of interpreters providing the reference data increased. The LCM area estimates generally had larger standard deviations and greater ranges over different subsets of interpreters, indicating greater sensitivity to the selection of the individual interpreters who carried out the reference class labeling.

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USGS2021

Contrasting mobilization of elements in contact with sediment from Lake Roosevelt and the Upper Columbia River, Washington, USA

Trace element contamination is known to be widely present in sediment of Lake Roosevelt and the riverine reach of the Columbia River in Washington State, USA due to discharges from several smelters and numerous mines dating back to the mid-1800's. In this study, the concentrations of aqueous elements in contact with bed sediment from the lake and river were examined under varying degrees of physical mixing and time scales. Contrasting geochemical processes affecting aqueous concentrations were inferred from the release of major ions (Ca and Si), elements enriched in metallurgical smelter slag (Cu and Sb), and redox-sensitive species (Fe, Mn, Mo and U). Releases of major ions reflect the contrasting sediment substrates along the length of the river and large reservoir. Calcium released from carbonate minerals and slag particles was most pronounced in regions of carbonate bedrock and near sediment deposits with a large component of slag material, while Si released from unconsolidated glacial/fluvial sediment increased with increasing distance downstream. Sb release was a consistent indicator of slag presence and weathering, possibly because its anionic nature inhibits readsorption onto metal oxides. In contrast, Cu release was quite variable, likely due to varying degrees of copper readsorption or co-precipitation onto metal oxides. The release of Mo and U appeared to be affected by redox conditions, which were assessed using aqueous Fe and Mn concentrations.

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USGS2021

Fire frequency impacts soil properties and processes in sagebrush steppe ecosystems of the Columbia Basin

Increased fire frequency in semi-arid ecosystems can alter biochemical soil properties and soil processes that underpin ecosystem structure and functioning, thus threatening native plant communities and the species that rely on them. However, there is much uncertainty about the magnitude of change as soils are exposed to more fires, because soil recovery and changes in fire severity following a first fire mediate the impact of successive fires on soil properties. With this study we aim to evaluate how increased fire frequency affects soil biochemical properties (i.e. soil pH, soil organic matter (SOM), soil organic carbon (SOC), soil structure and mineral N) and processes (i.e. microbial and enzymatic activity) in a sagebrush-steppe ecosystem located in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA. During 2016, we collected soils from once (2012), twice (2003 and 2012), and thrice (2003, 2007, and 2012) burned areas, enabling us to test the hypothesis that increasing fire frequency will exacerbate the impact of fire on soil properties and processes. Our study yielded three main results: (1) fire reduced the total soil C concentration and soil C in aggregates relative to unburned soil, but only when soil was exposed to fire once (i.e. the most recent fire), (2) compared to the unburned soils, SOM contents, enzyme activity and microbial CO 2 respiration were suppressed in the once and thrice burned soils, but not in the twice burned soils, and (3) fire increased NO 3 − -N contents across the once and twice burned sites, and reduced enzyme activity associated with N cycling in the thrice burned sites. Taken together, our findings suggest that a one-time fire in this shrub dominated semi-arid ecosystem significantly changes soil biochemical attributes and microbially driven processes. With sufficient time between fires, these structural and functional properties can partially recover, and this may persist even after a second fire, but recovery is limited when a third fire creates an additional disturbance at a shorter time interval. Furthermore, while soil C pools and microbial decomposition processes were able to recover with sufficient time, greater soil resource availability prevailed in soil across all fire frequencies, indicating that fire is likely to promote invasion and reduce ecosystem stability, even when other soil properties recover.

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USGS2021

Modeling watershed carbon dynamics as affected by land cover change and soil erosion

Process-based ecosystem carbon cycle models typically incorporate vegetation growth, vegetation mortality, and soil respiration as well as the biotic and environmental drivers that influence these variables. However, few spatially explicit process models can efficiently incorporate the influence of land cover change and carbon lateral movement at regional scales or high spatial resolution. This study uses the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to demonstrate the development of a fast ecosystem model that not only considers the basic carbon cycle but also incorporates the impact of land cover change, soil erosion, and soil deposition. As input to the LUCAS modeling framework, we used the integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) to simulate a non-spatial reference carbon cycling scenario without considering land cover change for the Nisqually River watershed in the northwestern United States. We then used the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) remotely sensed 30-m sequential land cover data to generate annual land change history for the Nisqually River area from 1985 to 2017 and used the Unit Stream Powered Erosion and Deposition model (USPED) to estimate annual soil carbon lateral movement. Finally, we combined the annual carbon outputs from IBIS, the land change history from LCMAP, and the soil erosion and deposition from USPED within the LUCAS simulation framework. Results showed that from 1985 to 2017, along with the dynamic land cover changes, total ecosystem biomass carbon increased from 11.4 to 18.6 TgC, mainly due to forest growth. Total ecosystem soil carbon declined from 31.7 to 29.7 TgC, but the overall loss in soil carbon was not uniform across land cover types. Forestland (forest sector) and grassland lost carbon, while wetland, developed land and agricultural land gained carbon. Forest, grassland, and developed land lost 0.0553 TgC during the study period (1.73 Gg of C per year; 1 Gg = 0.001 Tg) from erosion, while wetland gained 0.0071 TgC (0.22 Gg C per year) from deposition. Agricultural land was neutral in terms of soil erosion.

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USGS2021

Improving short-term recruitment forecasts for coho salmon using a spatiotemporal integrated population model

Fishery managers often rely on forecasts of future population abundance to set allowable harvest quotas or exploitation rates. While there has been substantial research devoted to identifying environmental factors that can predict recruitment for individual populations, such correlations often degrade over time, thereby limiting their utility for management. Conversely, examining multiple populations at once to detect shared, spatially structured patterns can offer insights into their recruitment dynamics that are advantageous for forecasting. Here, we develop a population dynamics model for natural origin coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) stocks in Washington State that leverages spatial and temporal autocorrelation in marine survival to improve one-year-ahead forecasts of adult returns. Executed in a Bayesian hierarchical integrated modelling framework, our spatiotemporal approach incorporates multiple data types and shares information among stocks to estimate key biological parameters that are informative for forecasting. Retrospective evaluation of one-year-ahead forecast skill indicated that the spatiotemporal integrated population model (ST-IPM) outperformed existing forecasts of Washington State coho salmon returns by 25–38 % on average. Moreover, the ST-IPM estimates parameters that were previously non-identifiable for many stocks, and propagates uncertainty from multiple contributing data sources into model forecasts. Our results add to a growing body of work demonstrating the utility of spatiotemporal and integrated approaches for modelling population dynamics, and the framework developed here has broad applications to the assessment and management of coho salmon in Washington State and elsewhere throughout their range.

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USGS2021

Effects of variable-density thinning on non-native understory plants in coniferous forests of the Pacific Northwest

Old-growth forests serve as critical habitat for many sensitive species, but management practices have diminished their prevalence, and former regions of old-growth are now dominated by second-growth stands lacking the structural heterogeneity, diversity, and species richness that these older forests possess. In western Washington state in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, the Olympic Habitat Development Study was designed to address this issue and hasten the development of specific old-growth features in second-growth stands using variable-density thinning. One concern with such methods, however, is the potential to introduce non-native plants, which can have negative ecological and economic impacts. Here, we examine how variable-density thinning influences desirable forest characteristics, such as increased plant species diversity, versus the less desirable effects of non-native plant species introduction. We test two hypotheses regarding plant invasions. First, thinning would promote establishment of non-native, shade-intolerant species, but their abundance would gradually decline over time. Second, thinning disturbance and increased heterogeneity of canopy cover would initially promote understory richness of all species, although richness would decline over time with canopy closure and increased cover of shrubs and regenerating trees. We found that the number and cover of non-native species initially increased after thinning, peaking at 16 species present in variable-density thinned treatments in year three. By year 17, 11 species remained throughout the seven 6.5 ha treatment plots sampled, and cover was negligible. As predicted, species richness increased following thinning, however, native species richness remained elevated through year 17, contrary to our hypothesis. Furthermore, native species diversity also increased following thinning and remained higher in thinned treatments than controls through year 17. Our results show that variable-density thinning in temperate coniferous forests can enhance native, but not exotic, plant richness and diversity in the long term.

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USGS2021

Maternal transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls in Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), Puget Sound, Washington

We measured polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in multiple age and size classes of Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ), including eggs, young-of-the year, and adults to evaluate maternal transfer as a pathway for contaminant uptake and to add to the limited information on the occurrence of PCBs in sand lance in Puget Sound. Sampling was replicated at an urban embayment (Eagle Harbor) and a state park along an open shoreline (Clayton Beach), during spring and fall. Lipid-normalized concentrations of PCBs in sand lance at Eagle Harbor were 5–11 times higher than PCB concentrations in comparable samples at Clayton Beach. This was true for every life stage and size class of sand lance, including eggs removed from females. The same trend was observed in environmental samples. In Eagle Harbor, PCB concentrations in unfiltered water (0.19 ng/L), sieved (<63 μm) nearshore bed sediments (0.78 ng/g dw) and suspended particulate matter (1.69 ng/g dw) were 2–3 times higher than equivalent samples from near Clayton Beach. Sand lance collected in the fall (buried in sediment during presumed winter dormancy) had lower lipid content and up to four times higher PCB concentrations than comparably sized fish collected in the spring (by beach seine). Lipid content was 5–8% in spring fish and was reduced in fall fish (1–3%). Male sand lance had higher PCB concentrations than comparable females. All egg samples contained PCBs, and the lipid normalized egg/female concentration ratios were close to 1 (0.87–0.96), confirming that maternal transfer of PCBs occurred, resulting in sand lance eggs and early life stages being contaminated with PCBs even before they are exposed to exogenous sources. These life stages are prey for an even wider range of species than consume adult sand lance, creating additional exposure pathways for biota and increasing the challenges for mitigation of PCBs in the food web.

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USGS2021

A generic soil velocity model that accounts for near-surface conditions and deeper geologic structure

Near-surface soil conditions can significantly alter the amplitude and frequency content of incoming ground motions – often with profound consequences for the built environment – and are thus important inputs to any ground-motion prediction. Previous soil-velocity models (SVM) have predicted shear-wave velocity profiles based on the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m ( V S30 ). This article presents a generic soil-velocity model that accounts both for near-surface conditions ( V S30 ) and deeper geologic structure, as represented to the depth at which the profile reaches a velocity of 1.0 km/s ( Z 1.0 ). To demonstrate the advantages of our new SVM, we apply it to the Cascadia Region of North America, where numerous geologic basins and glaciated landscapes give rise to a wide range of V S30 and Z 1.0 combinations. This soil velocity model yields good estimates of site response across all site conditions, and significantly improves upon a model calibrated using only V S30 data. In conjunction with existing models that describe the deep velocity structure of the region (e.g., (Stephenson et al., 2017) [27]; the proposed model is particularly suited for use in regional-scale predictions of site response, liquefaction, landslides, infrastructure damage, and loss. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable to the development of SVMs elsewhere, and with improved understanding of near-surface and deep velocity structures, can facilitate more accurate ground-motion predictions globally.

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USGS2021

Roads less travelled by— Pleistocene piracy in Washington’s northwestern Channeled Scabland

The Pleistocene Okanogan lobe of Cordilleran ice in north-central Washington State dammed Columbia River to pond glacial Lake Columbia and divert the river south across one or another low spot along a 230-km-long drainage divide. When enormous Missoula floods from the east briefly engulfed the lake, water poured across a few such divide saddles. The grandest such spillway into the Channeled Scabland became upper Grand Coulee. By cutting headward to Columbia valley, upper Grand Coulee’s flood cataract opened a valve that then kept glacial Lake Columbia low and limited later floods into nearby Moses Coulee. Indeed few of the scores of last-glacial Missoula floods managed to reach it. Headward cutting of an inferred smaller cataract (Foster Coulee) had earlier lowered glacial Lake Columbia’s outlet. Such Scabland piracies explain a variety of field evidence assembled here: apparently successive outlets of glacial Lake Columbia, and certain megaflood features downcurrent to Wenatchee and Quincy basin. Ice-rafted erratics and the Pangborn bar of foreset gravel near Wenatchee record late Wisconsin flood(s) down Columbia valley as deep as 320 m. Fancher bar, 45 m higher than Pangborn bar, also has tall foreset beds—but its gravel is partly rotted and capped by thick calcrete, thus pre-Wisconsin age, perhaps greatly so. In western Quincy basin foreset beds of basaltic gravel dip east from Columbia valley into the basin—gravel also partly rotted and capped by thick calcrete, also pre-Wisconsin. Yet evidence of late Wisconsin eastward flow to Quincy basin is sparse. This sequence suggests that upper Grand Coulee had largely opened before down-Columbia megaflood(s) early in late Wisconsin time. A drift-obscured area of the Waterville Plateau near Badger Wells is the inconspicuous divide saddle between Columbia tributary Foster Creek drainage and Moses Coulee drainage. Before flood cataracts had opened upper Grand Coulee or Foster Coulee, and while Okanogan ice blocked the Columbia but not Foster Creek, glacial Lake Columbia (diverted Columbia River) drained over this saddle at about 654 m and down Moses Coulee. When glacial Lake Columbia stood at this high level so far west, Missoula floods swelling the lake could easily and deeply flood Moses Coulee. Once eastern Foster Coulee cataract had been cut through, and especially once upper Grand Coulee’s great cataract receded to Columbia valley, glacial Lake Columbia stood lower, and Moses Coulee became harder to flood. During the late Wisconsin (marine isotope stage [MIS] 2), only when Okanogan-lobe ice blocked the Columbia near Brewster to form a high lake could Missoula floodwater from glacial Lake Missoula rise enough to overflow into Moses Coulee—and then only in a few very largest Missoula floods. Moses Coulee’s main excavation must lie with pre-Wisconsin outburst floods (MIS 6 or much earlier)—before upper Grand Coulee’s cataract had receded to Columbia valley.

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USGS2021

Diet composition of Fishers (Pekania pennanti) reintroduced on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Knowledge of diet composition can inform management strategies and efforts to recover endangered carnivore populations in vacant portions of their historic ranges. One such species, the Fisher ( Pekania pennanti ), was extirpated in Washington State prior to any formal documentation of its food habits in the coastal coniferous forests of western Washington. Fisher recovery efforts in Washington, based on translocating Fishers from extant populations, have been ongoing since 2008, beginning with the release of 90 Fishers on Washington's Olympic Peninsula from 2008 to 2010. We collected fecal samples or digestive tracts from 13 Fishers opportunistically on the Olympic Peninsula from 2009 through 2013. Subsequently, we identified the species composition of each sample's contents to determine the primary foods consumed by the reintroduced Fishers. Fisher diets were diverse and dominated by mammalian prey. Contents of feces and digestive tracts of Fishers were composed primarily of Snowshoe Hare ( Lepus americanus ) remains, followed by lesser proportions of Mountain Beavers ( Aplodontia rufa ), Northern Flying Squirrels ( Glaucomys sabrinus ), Douglas Squirrels ( Tamiasciurus douglasii ), Southern Red-backed Voles ( Myodes gapperi ), shrews ( Sorex spp.), and unidentified ungulate species. The diet of Fishers comprised species that occur across a wide range of land uses and management prescriptions, including previously logged forests and mature forests that have been set aside for retention of old-growth forest characteristics. Additional study of prey abundance and Fisher foraging behaviors related to structural habitat characteristics across a gradient of land uses would provide useful insights for enhancing the effectiveness of conservation efforts to benefit Fishers in Pacific Northwest coastal forests.

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USGS2021

Establishment and survival of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in meadows of Olympic National Park, Washington

Establishment of trees in subalpine meadows is a potential indicator of ecological effects of climate change. Tree establishment is a multi-year process including cone and seed production, germination, establishment, and growth, with each demographic step possibly sensitive to different climate limitations. While most studies have focused on one or a few steps, this study follows a cohort of individually marked saplings for 27 years beginning as seeds in two meadows on Hurricane Ridge, Olympic National Park. These meadows are examples of a south-facing tall sedge community type rather than the north-facing heath-shrub type where establishment has usually been observed. Results showed that mortality was high for the first few years, but number of saplings stabilized after the first decade. Seedling mortality during germination and establishment was directly related to weather that resulted in high air and soil temperatures and drought, while mortality of established saplings was indirectly related to weather through effects on growth. Growth was enhanced by longer growing season and warmer minimum temperatures; growth over three years and sapling height were predictive of mortality. Most sapling survival occurred in lichen (primarily Trapeliopsis granulosa ) and Vaccinium deliciosum plant communities. Many saplings are growing at very low rates compared with the rate predicted from adult trees. It is also apparent that while microsite within meadow (e.g., relative snow depth) is important in determining sapling success, the landscape position of meadows (e.g., north versus south aspect) exerts a higher-level control over whether a subalpine meadow is likely to disappear with warming climate.

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USGS2021

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic National Parks: 2008-2017 synthesis report

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with the National Park Service (NPS)-North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN), the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe (MIT), Puyallup Tribe of Indians (PTOI), and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) to develop a standard survey protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the abundance, distribution, and population composition of elk on key summer ranges within Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) and Olympic National Park (OLYM). In MORA, surveys were conducted in two trend count areas (TCAs) that correspond with primary summer ranges used by the North Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park to the North, and the South Rainier Herd, which winters outside the park primarily to the South. In OLYM, we defined five TCAs including an Olympic Core TCA (hereafter, Core TCA) that encompasses summer ranges on the flanks of Mount Olympus, and four TCAs that encompass other primary summer ranges throughout the park. The standard protocol allows for estimating aerial survey detection biases and adjusting raw survey counts to account for elk that were likely present but not seen during surveys. Previously, we developed a suite of aerial-bias-correction models for use in estimating aerial detection biases and adjusting raw counts of elk in MORA based on sighting conditions related to elk group size, vegetation density, lighting conditions, elk movement, as well as combinations of these and other factors. The models were based on independent sighting records of elk groups by front-seat and back-seat observer pairs in a helicopter, including detection records of some radio-collared elk groups. Here, we analyze results of the first 10 years of elk monitoring in MORA (2008-2017) and 8 years in OLYM (2008-2015). In a previous report covering surveys conducted from 2008-2011, data were not sufficient to model detection biases of aerial surveys conducted in OLYM; hence, analyses of elk population trends were based on counts adjusted for detection biases in MORA, whereas trends in OLYM were based on raw, unadjusted counts (Griffin et al. 2013, Jenkins et al. 2015). Our objectives for the current summary were to: (1) incorporate additional data to update aerial-bias-correction models previously developed for use in MORA to include corrections for aerial detection bias in both MORA and OLYM, (2) examine trends in elk abundance, distribution, and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges within MORA and OLYM, and (3) estimate effects of seasonal variation and weather on elk abundance and population composition estimates for subalpine summer ranges in both parks.

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