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Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Turkey.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Earthquake rupture arrest from depth‐dependent frictional stability on the Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye (Turkey)

Determining why earthquake ruptures stop is a central challenge in earthquake science and seismic hazard assessment. The Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye, exhibits shallow creep (<∼3 km depth) yet hosts M > 6.5 earthquake ruptures at greater depth. Here, we evaluate whether variations in frictional stability along this segment aided arrest of the 2020 M 6.7 Elaziğ and 2023 M 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake ruptures. Analysis of Sentinel‐1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery indicates the 2023 M 7.8 rupture propagated laterally into a metamorphic massif within the Pütürge segment, where slip rapidly decayed below detection limits. Creepmeters along this segment recorded no significant surface afterslip (<3 mm) in the following year. To investigate this fault‐slip behavior, we conducted triaxial friction experiments on Pütürge fault gouge sampled from an outcrop exposure. The gouge, composed primarily of muscovite, quartz, and calcite, is velocity strengthening at conditions approximating 0–2.5 km depth and velocity weakening at 4–5 km depth. This transition to velocity‐weakening friction is associated with enhanced comminution and shear localization observed microstructurally. Our results suggest that depth‐dependent frictional stability of the Pütürge fault segment facilitates rupture nucleation and propagation at depth while maintaining rupture‐arresting behavior near Earth’s surface.

Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone↗

Lessons in business recovery following the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence, Türkiye informed by women entrepreneurs

On 6 February 2023, Southern Türkiye was hit by devastating earthquakes, directly affecting over 14 million people in 11 cities, causing more than 50,000 deaths and the destruction of more than 800,000 buildings. This article goes beyond the physical damage imposed by the catastrophe to discuss the effects of the earthquakes on the operations of women-owned businesses. The mixed-method study with entrepreneurs belonging to a women’s business association operating in a moderately disrupted part of the region explores their struggles and recovery expectations. Thirty-five questionnaires were analyzed to identify the reasons for business closure, challenges, and needs faced in the post-disaster period and their recovery strategies. In addition, 23 entrepreneurs participated in roundtable discussions to provide a broader context to their responses to survey topics as well as lessons learned. Across both the survey and roundtables, while many respondents reported minor physical damage to their building, they also experienced financial and personal challenges from disruption to equipment, infrastructure, services, supply chains, institutional decisions, employee well-being, and customer base. Many used their business resources and personal savings to assist employees and others in the community. The women entrepreneurs often felt their recovery needs were ignored by government and private relief organizations and encountered barriers to receiving assistance from public and private institutions. Organizing together as women in business, even informally, provided mutual support during the crisis and recovery periods and catalyzed their role in support of their communities. The results illuminate functional community recovery as a balance of recovery of built infrastructure functionality and recovery of the broader social and economic fabric of the community.

southern Turkey↗

Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Stochastic ground motion simulation models are often less accurate at lower frequencies than at higher frequencies when fitting recorded data unless supplemented by a deterministic forward directivity velocity pulse model. Moreover, time-modulated stochastic models, which adjust ground motion amplitudes over time, typically use functions that fail to capture multiple strong-motion phases. The February 2023 Turkey (Türkiye) earthquake exhibited diverse recordings, including near-fault and far-field motions with pulse-like and non-pulse-like characteristics, along with single and multiple strong-motion phases. To better represent such a diverse set of recordings, this study enhances a fully non-stationary site-based stochastic model without combining it with a deterministic model. Improvements include a new band-pass filter with upper- and lower-frequency limits, which refines the representation of the low-frequency content. Moreover, a time-modulating function that can represent energy arrival in multiple strong phases is introduced. The reference model’s parameters are identified by fitting to the energy content, zero-level crossings, and cumulative counts of positive-minima and negative-maxima of a target accelerogram. This fitting procedure is modified to address the increased number of parameters. These improvements broaden the reference model’s applicability while preserving its simplicity, a key aspect appealing to engineering practitioners. The improved model’s applicability is demonstrated by simulating a dataset from the February 2023 Türkiye earthquake, and the accuracy is tested using a pulse-like Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western United States dataset. Validations are performed based on total energy, zero-level crossings, Fourier amplitude spectrum, elastic response spectra, and peak ground motion parameters. Validations are performed schematically in the time and frequency domains and quantitatively using goodness-of-fit scores, various validation-metrics errors, and inter-period correlations. Overall, the improved stochastic model can effectively simulate a set of diverse ground motion recordings, including near-fault pulse-like records, records with multiple strong phases, and far-field motions across a broad frequency range.

Kahramanmaraş↗

Site-specific, extended ShakeMaps for earthquake engineering applications

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely produces ShakeMaps of shaking intensity across the globe. Due to practical constraints, the number of response spectral periods was limited to three standard periods (0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 sec). We have recently developed the tools that are necessary to expand this functionality to include 22 periods (matching the current U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model periods) as well as the orientation-independent components (e.g., “RotD50”). We refer to ShakeMap products that include these extensions as “extended ShakeMaps.” The added level of complexity motivated us to also develop a user-friendly tool called the “ShakeMap Sampling Tool” (SST) that gives all the estimated shaking metrics for a specific location (or list of locations). Additionally, we develop a web application where users can input locations of interest and view/download the SST results. We further familiarize users with the concept of “Composite ShakeMaps.” For earthquakes sequences such as a mainshock and larger foreshocks and aftershocks, this provides a map of the maximum value of each shaking metric, which is useful for overall loss estimates, the full extent of ground failure triggering potential, and a better portrayal of the repeated shaking levels at a given point for a series of earthquakes. Such a site-specific shaking history facilitates earthquake forensics at building or infrastructure sites for which damage may be of concern, as described in the Disproportionate Damage Earthquake trigger specified in the IEBC (2018, Section 405.2.2) and in developing ATC-145 guidelines (Guidelines for Post-Earthquake Assessment, Repair, and Retrofit of Buildings). The composite ShakeMap can be combined with the SST for a variety of earthquake-hazard applications, such as systematically inferring triggering shaking estimates at specific sites of geotechnical interest for landsliding, liquefaction, and lateral-spreading hazards.

Kahramanmaraş↗

Hydration state and rheologic stratification of the lithospheric mantle beneath the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey

We present constraints on the hydration state and rheology of the lithospheric mantle beneath the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ). Peridotite xenoliths from the Biyikali and Çorlu volcanic centers record deformational microstructures consistent with shearing in a lithosphere-scale transcurrent fault system. Analysis by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy indicates that nominally anhydrous phases retain some OH − , but bulk rock concentrations are generally restricted to <50 ppm H 2 O by weight. From the rock microstructure, we determined differential stress magnitude and active deformation mechanism(s); combined with estimates of hydration state, we constrained the rheology. Recrystallized grain size piezometry shows that the mantle beneath the NAFZ sustained differential stresses of 10–20 MPa, largely independent of depth. The dominant deformation mechanism(s) change with depth; xenoliths extracted from shallower depths record evidence for grain size-sensitive creep possibly in the presence of melt. At intermediate depths, both dislocation creep and grain size-sensitive mechanisms were active, and we did not observe evidence for deformation in the presence of melt. The deepest samples were dominated by dislocation creep. The strong temperature sensitivity of creep mechanisms, combined with the low variability in differential stress, contributes to a stratified viscosity profile ranging from 10 18 Pa s for the deepest samples to >10 22 Pa s at shallower depths (assuming a melt-free rheology). Although difficult to quantify from the rock record, melt likely reduced the viscosity of the shallow lithospheric mantle. Vertical stratification in viscosity beneath the NAFZ, the result of melt-present deformation and/or transitions in the dominant deformation mechanism, has important consequences for the seismic cycle of strike-slip fault systems.

North Anatolian fault zone↗

3D Dynamic rupture modeling of the 6 February 2023, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey Mw 7.8 and 7.7 earthquake doublet using early observations

The 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence involved unexpected ruptures across numerous fault segments. We present 3D dynamic rupture simulations to illuminate the complex dynamics of the earthquake doublet. Our models are constrained by observations available within days of the sequence and deliver timely, mechanically consistent explanations of the unforeseen rupture paths, diverse rupture speeds, multiple slip episodes, heterogeneous fault offsets, locally strong shaking, and fault system interactions. Our simulations link both earthquakes, matching geodetic and seismic observations and reconciling regional seismotectonics, rupture dynamics, and ground motions of a fault system represented by 10 curved dipping segments and embedded in a heterogeneous stress field. The M w 7.8 earthquake features delayed backward branching from a steeply branching splay fault, not requiring supershear speeds. The asymmetrical dynamics of the distinct, bilateral M w 7.7 earthquake are explained by heterogeneous fault strength, prestress orientation, fracture energy, and static stress changes from the previous earthquake. Our models explain the northward deviation of its eastern rupture and the minimal slip observed on the Sürgü fault. 3D dynamic rupture scenarios can elucidate unexpected observations shortly after major earthquakes, providing timely insights for data‐driven analysis and hazard assessment toward a comprehensive, physically consistent understanding of the mechanics of multifault systems.

The Seismic Record↗

Rapid surface rupture mapping from satellite data: The 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence

The 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake sequence produced > 500 km of surface rupture primarily on the left‐lateral East Anatolian (~345 km) and Çardak (~175 km) faults. Constraining the length and magnitude of surface displacement on the causative faults is critical for loss estimates, recovery efforts, rapid identification of impacted infrastructure, and fault displacement hazard analysis. To support these efforts, we rapidly mapped the surface rupture from satellite data with support from remote sensing and field teams, and released the results to the public in near‐real time. Detailed surface rupture mapping commenced on 7 February and continued as high‐resolution (< 1.0 m/pixel) optical images from WorldView satellites (2023 Maxar) became available. We interpreted the initial simplified rupture trace from subpixel offset fields derived from Advanced Land Observation Satellite2 and Sentinel‐1A synthetic aperture radar image pairs available on 8 and 10 February, respectively. The mapping was released publicly on 10 February, with frequent updates, and published in final form four months postearthquake ( Reitman, Briggs, et al. , 2023 ). This publicly available, rapid mapping helped guide fieldwork and constrained U.S. Geological Survey finite‐fault and loss estimate models, as well as stress change estimates and dynamic rupture models.

Kahramanmaraş↗

Breaking plates: Creation of the East Anatolian fault, the Anatolian plate, and a tectonic escape system

Lateral movement of lithospheric fragments along strike-slip faults in response to collision (escape tectonics) has characterized convergent settings since the onset of plate tectonics and is a mechanism for the formation of new plates. The Anatolian plate was created by the sequential connection of strike-slip faults following ≥10 m.y. of distributed deformation that ultimately localized into plate-bounding faults. Thermochronology data and seismic images of lithosphere structure near the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) provide insights into the development of the new plate and escape system. Low-temperature thermochronology ages of rocks in and near the EAFZ are significantly younger than in other fault zones in the region, e.g., apatite (U-Th)/He: 11–1 Ma versus 27–13 Ma. Young apatite (U-Th)/He ages and thermal history modeling record thermal resetting along the EAFZ over the past ~5 m.y. and are interpreted to indicate thermal activity triggered by strike-slip faulting in the EAFZ as it formed as a through-going, lithosphere-scale structure. The mechanism for EAFZ formation may be discerned from S-wave velocity images from the Continental Dynamics–Central Anatolian Tectonics (CD-CAT) seismic experiment. These images indicate that thin but strong Arabian lithospheric mantle extends ~50–150 km north beneath Anatolian crust and would have been located near the present surficial location of the Bitlis-Zagros suture zone (co-located with the EAFZ in our study area) at ca. 5 Ma. Underthrusting of strong Arabian lithosphere facilitated localization of the EAFZ and thus was a fundamental control on the formation of the Anatolian plate and escape system.

East Anatolian Fault↗

Fast Pliocene integration of the Central Anatolian Plateau drainage: Evidence, processes, and driving forces

Continental sedimentation was widespread across the Central Anatolian Plateau in Miocene–Pliocene time, during the early stages of plateau uplift. Today, however, most sediment produced on the plateau is dispersed by a well-integrated drainage and released into surrounding marine depocenters. Residual long-term (10 6 –10 7 yr) sediment storage on the plateau is now restricted to a few closed catchments. Lacustrine sedimentation was widespread in the Miocene–Pliocene depocenters. Today, it is also restricted to the residual closed catchments. The present-day association of closed catchments, long-term sediment storage, and lacustrine sedimentation suggests that the Miocene–Pliocene sedimentation also occurred in closed catchments. The termination of sedimentation across the plateau would therefore mark the opening of these closed catchments, their integration, and the formation of the present-day drainage. By combining newly dated volcanic markers with previously dated sedimentary sequences, we show that this drainage integration occurred remarkably rapidly, within 1.5 m.y., at the turn of the Pliocene. The evolution of stream incision documented by these markers and newly obtained 10 Be erosion rates allow us to discriminate the respective contributions of three potential processes to drainage integration, namely, the capture of closed catchments by rivers draining the outer slopes of the plateau, the overflow of closed lakes, and the avulsion of closed catchments. Along the southern plateau margin, rivers draining the southern slope of the Central Anatolian Plateau expanded into the plateau interior; however, only a small amount of drainage integration was achieved by this process. Instead, avulsion and/or overflow between closed catchments achieved most of the integration, and these top-down processes left a distinctive sedimentary signal in the form of terminal lacustrine limestone sequences. In the absence of substantial regional climate wetting during the early Pliocene, we propose that two major tectonic events triggered drainage integration, separately or in tandem: the uplift of the Central Anatolian Plateau and the tectonic completion of the Anatolian microplate. Higher surface uplift of the eastern Central Anatolian Plateau relative to the western Central Anatolian Plateau promoted more positive water balances in the eastern catchments, higher water discharge, and larger sediment fluxes. Overflow/avulsion in some of the eastern catchments triggered a chain of avulsions and/or overflows, sparking sweeping integration across the plateau. Around 5 Ma, the inception of the full escape of the Anatolian microplate led to the disruption of the plateau surface by normal and strike-slip faults. Fault scarps partitioned large catchments fed by widely averaged sediment and water influxes into smaller catchments with more contrasted water balances and sediment fluxes. The evolution of the Central Anatolian Plateau shows that top-down processes of integration can outcompete erosion of outer plateau slopes to reintegrate plateau interior drainages, and this is overlooked in current models, in which drainage evolution is dominated by bottom-up integration. Top-down integration has the advantage that it can be driven by more subtle changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions than bottom-up integration.

Central Anatolian Plateau↗

Slip distribution and rupture history of the August 11, 2012, double earthquakes in Ahar – Varzaghan, Iran, using joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data

We use combined teleseismic and strong motion data sets to investigate finite-fault slip models for a double of earthquakes that occurred on August 11, 2012, in northwestern Iran near the cities of Ahar and Varzaghan. The data include teleseismic P-waveforms retrieved from broadband seismic stations located between 30°–94° from the earthquakes and local strong motion data recorded by the Iran Strong Motion Network, installed and operated by the Building and Housing Research Centre. We first invert teleseismic P-waveforms and local strong motion data separately. For the first event (12:23 UTC), the teleseismic broadband inversion yields a somewhat deeper and simpler distribution of slip than the local strong motion inversion. The strong motion inversion results in a more complex distribution because of higher frequency content but can also be influenced by complexities in the propagation path. For the second event (12:34 UTC), the slip distribution from strong motion data is more similar to the teleseismic result and shows a simple slip area with a small relative movement to the west. To resolve the differences between the results of these two data sets and obtain a better constrained slip model, we perform a joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data. The joint inversion for the first event shows two asperities with a maximum slip of 3.9 m up- dip from the hypocenter and extending to the west between depths of 1 and 5 km. A second narrower high-slip area is seen just above the hypocenter from 6 to 10 km depth. The total moment for this earthquake is calculated to be M o = 3.8 × 10 25 dyn-cm (3.8 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.4). For the second event, the results of the joint inversion show a simple slip distribution that is mainly confined in a single patch around the hypocenter with a depth range from about 10 to 13 km and maximum slip of 1.9 m. We compute a total seismic moment of M o = 1.6 × 10 25 dyn-cm (1.6 × 10 18 N.m) (M w 6.1) for the second event. The largest stress drops for the first event occur above the hypocenter with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 120 bar (12 Mpa). For the second event, the maximum stress drop occurs at the reported focal depth with an average stress drop over the rupture area of 80 bar (8 Mpa).

East Anatolian Fault↗

Age and mantle sources of Quaternary basalts associated with “leaky” transform faults of the migrating Anatolia-Arabia-Africa triple junction

The Anatolia (Eurasia), Arabia, and Africa tec­tonic plates intersect in southeast Turkey, near the Gulf of İskenderun, forming a tectonically active and unstable triple junction (the A 3 triple junction). The plate boundaries are marked by broad zones of major, dominantly left-lateral transform faults including the East Anatolian fault zone (the Anato­lia-Arabia boundary) and the Dead Sea fault zone (the Arabia-Africa boundary). Quaternary basalts occur locally within these “leaky” transform fault zones (similar to those observed within oceanic transform faults), providing evidence that mantle melting, basalt genesis, and eruption are linked to crustal deformation and faulting that extends into the upper mantle. We investigated samples of alkaline basalt (including basanite) from the Toprakkale and Karasu volcanic fields within a broad zone of transtension associated with these plate-boundary faults near the İskenderun and Amik Basins, respectively. Toprakkale basalts and basanites have 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau ages ranging from 810 ± 60 ka to 46 ± 13 ka, and Karasu volcanic field basalts have 40 Ar/ 39 Ar plateau ages ranging from 2.63 ± 0.17 Ma to 52 ± 16 ka. Two basanite samples within the Toprak­kale volcanic field have isotopic characteristics of a depleted mantle source, with 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of 0.703070 and 0.703136, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd of 0.512931 and 0.512893, 176 Hf/ 177 Hf of 0.283019 and 0.282995, 206 Pb/ 204 Pb of 19.087 and 19.155, and 208 Pb/ 204 Pb of 38.861 and 38.915. The 176 Hf/ 177 Hf ratios of Toprakkale basalts (0.282966–0.283019) are more radiogenic than Karasu basalts (0.282837–0.282965), with some overlap in 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios (0.512781–0.512866 vs. 0.512648–0.512806). Toprakkale 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios (19.025 ± 0.001) exhibit less variation than that observed for Karasu basalts (18.800–19.324), and 208 Pb/ 204 Pb values for Toprakkale basalts (38.978– 39.103) are slightly lower than values for Karasu basalts (39.100–39.219). Melting depths estimated for the basalts from both volcanic fields gener­ally cluster between 60 and 70 km, whereas the basanites record melting depths of ~90 km. Depth estimates for the basalts largely correspond to the base of a thin lithosphere (~60 km) observed by seismic imaging. We interpret the combined radio­genic isotope data (Sr, Nd, Hf, Pb) from all alkaline basalts to reflect partial melting at the base of the lithospheric mantle. In contrast, seismic imaging indicates a much thicker (>100 km) lithosphere beneath southern Anatolia, a substantial part of which is likely subducted African lithosphere. This thicker lithosphere is adjacent to the surface loca­tions of the basanites. Thus, the greater melting depths inferred for the basanites may include par­tial melt contributions either from the lithospheric mantle of the attached and subducting African (Cyprean) slab, or from partial melting of detached blocks that foundered due to convective removal of the Anatolian lithosphere and that subsequently melted at ~90 km depth within the asthenosphere. The Quaternary basalts studied here are restricted to a broad zone of transtension formed in response to the development of the A 3 triple junction, with an earliest erupted age of 2.63 Ma. This indicates that the triple junction was well established by this time. While the current posi­tion of the A 3 triple junction is near the Amik Basin, faults and topographic expressions indicate that inception of the triple junction began as early as 5 Ma in a position farther to the northeast of the erupted basalts. Therefore, the position of the A 3 triple junction appears to have migrated to the southwest since the beginning of the Pliocene as the Anatolia-Africa plate boundary has adjusted to extrusion (tectonic escape) of the Anatolia plate. Establishment of the triple junction over the past 5 m.y. was synchronous with rollback of the Afri­can slab beneath Anatolia and associated trench retreat, consistent with Pliocene uplift in Cyprus and with the current positions of plate boundaries. The A 3 triple junction is considered to be unstable and likely to continue migrating to the southwest for the foreseeable geologic future.

Geosphere↗

Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Ecemiş fault zone and adjacent basins, central Anatolia, Turkey during the transition from Arabia - Eurasia collision to escape tectonics

The effects of Arabia-Eurasia collision are recorded in faults, basins, and exhumed metamorphic massifs across eastern and central Anatolia. These faults and basins also preserve evidence of major changes in deformation and associated sedimentary processes along major suture zones including the Inner Tauride suture where it lies along the southern (Ecemiş) segment of the Central Anatolian fault zone. Stratigraphic and structural data from the Ecemiş fault zone, adjacent NE Ulukışla basin, and metamorphic dome (Niğde Massif) record two fundamentally different stages in the Cenozoic tectonic evolution of this part of central Anatolia. The Paleogene sedimentary and volcanic strata of the NE Ulukışla basin (Ecemiş corridor) were deposited in marginal marine to marine environments on the exhuming Niğde Massif and east of it. A late Eocene–Oligocene transpressional stage of deformation involved oblique northward thrusting of older Paleogene strata onto the eastern Niğde Massif and of the eastern massif onto the rest of the massif, reburying the entire massif to >10 km depth and accompanied by left-lateral motion on the Ecemiş fault zone. A profound change in the tectonic setting at the end of the Oligocene produced widespread transtensional deformation across the area west of the Ecemiş fault zone in the Miocene. In this stage, the Ecemiş fault zone had at least 25 km of left-lateral offset. Before and during this faulting episode, the central Tauride Mountains to the east became a source of sediments that were deposited in small Miocene transtensional basins formed on the Eocene–Oligocene thrust belt between the Ecemiş fault zone and the Niğde Massif. Normal faults compatible with SW-directed extension cut across the Niğde Massif and are associated with a second (Miocene) re-exhumation of the Massif. Geochronology and thermochronology indicate that the transtensional stage started at ca. 23–22 Ma, coeval with large and diverse geological and tectonic changes across Anatolia.

Geosphere↗

Conditions and timing of high-grade metamorphism and ductile deformation of the southern segment of the Central Anatolian Ophiolite

Ophiolitic fragments scattered over a wide area of Central Anatolia exhibit varying degrees of metamorphism, from unmetamorphosed to upper amphibolite facies, although geochemical similarities suggest they are all part of the Central Anatolian Ophiolite (CAO). Magmatic crystallization of oceanic crust in the CAO at ~ 91 Ma coincided with high-grade metamorphism of rocks that underlie the southern, highest grade part of the CAO, raising questions about the tectonic relationship of the ophiolite to underlying metasedimentary and plutonic rocks. New geochronology results show that the 40 Ar/ 39 Ar hornblende age of amphibolite-facies metagabbro in the high-grade metamorphic part of the CAO is ~ 87 Ma, similar to hornblende ages from amphibolite in the underlying Niğde metamorphic/plutonic massif. Biotite in a deformed quartzofeldspathic rock associated with high-grade meta-ophiolitic rocks yielded an 40 Ar– 39 Ar age of ~ 78 Ma, similar to biotite ages from the Niğde Massif. Hornblende in gabbro from unmetamorphosed CAO yielded an older 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age of ~ 90 Ma, similar to the previously determined crystallization age of the ophiolite. These data indicate that the southern part of the ophiolite was incorporated into and therefore metamorphosed and deformed with the orogenic mid-crust now exposed in the Niğde metamorphic–plutonic complex, whereas the northern, unmetamorphosed part of the ophiolite was obducted onto the continent. This distinct difference in different parts of the ophiolite may indicate oblique collision or irregularities in the continental margin, resulting in part of the ophiolite being incorporated into the orogenic crust and subsequently exhumed and cooled with it, and another part being obducted.

Anatolia↗

Melt equilibration depths as sensors of lithospheric thickness during Eurasia-Arabia collision and the uplift of the Anatolian Plateau

A co-investigation of mantle melting conditions and seismic structure revealed an evolutionary record of mantle dynamics accompanying the transition from subduction to collision along the Africa-Eurasia margin and the >1 km uplift of the Anatolian Plateau. New 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates of volcanic rocks from the Eastern Taurides (southeast Turkey) considerably expand the known spatial extent of Miocene-aged mafic volcanism following a magmatic lull over much of Anatolia that ended at ca. 20 Ma. Mantle equilibration depths for these chemically diverse basalts are interpreted to indicate that early to middle Miocene lithospheric thickness in the region varied from ∼50 km or less near the Bitlis suture zone to ∼80 km near the Inner Tauride suture zone. This southward-tapering lithospheric base could be a vestige of the former interface between the subducted (and now detached) portion of the Arabian plate and the overriding Eurasian plate, and/or a reflection of mantle weakening associated with greater mantle hydration trenchward prior to collision. Asthenospheric upwelling driven by slab tearing and foundering along this former interface, possibly accompanied by convective removal of the lithosphere, could have led to renewed volcanic activity after 20 Ma. Melt equilibration depths for late Miocene and Pliocene basalts together with seismic imaging of the present lithosphere indicate that relatively invariant lithospheric thicknesses of 60–70 km have persisted since the middle Miocene. Thus, no evidence is found for large-scale (tens of kilometers) Miocene delamination of the lower lithosphere from the overriding plate, which has been proposed elsewhere to account for late Miocene and younger uplift of Anatolia.

Anatolian Plate↗

Tracking the timing of subduction and exhumation using 40 Ar/ 39 Ar phengite ages in blueschist- and eclogite-facies rocks (Sivrihisar, Turkey)

Geochronologic studies of high-pressure/low-temperature rocks can be used to determine the timing and rates of burial and exhumation in subduction zones by dating different stages of the pressure–temperature history. In this study, we present new in situ UV laser ablation 40 Ar/ 39 Ar phengite ages from a suite of lawsonite blueschist- and eclogite-facies rocks representing different protoliths (metabasalt, metasediment), different structural levels (within and outside of a high-strain zone), and different textural positions (eclogite pod core vs. margin) to understand the timing of these events in an exhumed Neo-Tethyan subduction zone (Sivrihisar Massif, Tavşanlı Zone, Turkey). Weighted mean in situ 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of phengite from the cores of lawsonite eclogite pods (90–93 Ma) are distinctly older than phengite from retrogressed, epidote eclogite (82 ± 2 Ma). These ages are interpreted as the age of peak and retrograde metamorphism, respectively. Eclogite records the narrowest range of ages (10–14 m.y.) of any rock type analyzed. Transitional eclogite- and blueschist-facies assemblages and glaucophane-rimmed lawsonite + garnet + phengite veins from eclogite pod margins record a much wider age range of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages (~20 m.y.) with weighted mean ages of ~91 Ma. Blueschists and quartzites record more variable 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages that may in part be related to structural position: samples within a high-strain zone at the tectonic contact of the HP rocks with a meta-ultramafic unit have in situ UV laser ablation 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of 84.0 ± 1.3–103.7 ± 3.1 Ma, whereas samples outside this zone range to older ages (84.6 ± 2.4–116.7 ± 2.7 Ma) and record a greater age range (22–38 m.y.). The phengite ages can be correlated with the preservation of HP mineral assemblages and fabrics as well as the effects of deformation. Collectively, these results show that high-spatial resolution UV laser ablation 40 Ar/ 39 Ar phengite data, when considered in a petrologic and structural context, may document prograde (burial) and retrograde (exhumation) stages of subduction metamorphism.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (&Delta;CFF) from interacting faults. We calculate M w > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different M w =7.0 to M w =8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+&Delta;CFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Sea if Marmara↗