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Research about Switzerland

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Switzerland.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Frictional weakening in the highly mobile 2025 Blatten rock and ice avalanche in Switzerland

Cascading slope failures are increasing as glaciers retreat and slopes adjust to a warming climate, yet reconstructing their full dynamics from precursor to deposition remains challenging. Here we show that the 28 May 2025 Blatten rock-ice avalanche, which mobilized about 9.3 million cubic metres, can be reconstructed from seismic, geomorphological, and geotechnical evidence and numerical modeling. The observations reveal the timing, source, volume, and friction of over two weeks of accelerating rockfalls and minor glacier collapses before the main failure, followed by four stages of avalanche motion. Only with drastically reduced friction can both depth-averaged and three-dimensional models reproduce the center-of-mass force history and the deposit distribution. These friction values reflect effective frictional weakening. Geotechnical observations suggest that transient excess pore pressures possibly contributed to this weakening, but are insufficient to rule out additional mechanisms such as ice frictional reduction, segregation, and fragmentation. This work provides a reproducible and robust framework for analyzing catastrophic avalanches under a changing climate.

Birch Glacier↗
USGS2025

Are we heading towards a global decrease in coregonine catches?

Coregonines have specific ecological needs, making them potentially very vulnerable to changes in lake conditions. A contemporary concern is that many lakes worldwide are experiencing environmental changes due to anthropogenic pressure and climate warming. Here, we compiled long-term data of coregonine catches from 27 lakes from three continents in the northern hemisphere. Declines in catch were observed in 67% of the lakes during the first two decades of the 21 st century, with a significant trend (p-value<0.05) in 44% of the cases. An analysis to determine whether trends are globally linked to environmental conditions and specific lake attributes was carried out on 26 lakes for the period 2000–2019. Several local declines in catches had already been documented in the literature and are likely to be due to local forcing such as nutrients, species invasions and changes in fishing practices. Nevertheless, on a global scale, our results indicate that lakes, which exhibited a significant decrease in catch were larger and more nutrient-poor than other lakes. The rate of change in catches appeared to be related to the trophic state of the lake. The specific effect of warming is difficult to determine during the studied period. When warming occurred outside the period of egg incubation, decreasing trends were more frequently observed in nutrient-poor than in mesotrophic lakes. In conclusion, our findings suggest that achieving oligo- or ultraoligotrophic conditions, as required in developed countries to control phytoplankton blooms and enhance water quality, could pose significant challenges for future management of coregonine fisheries.

International Journal of Limnology↗
USGS2024

Debris-flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path

Debris-flow volumes can increase along their flow path by entraining sediment stored in the channel bed and banks, thus also increasing hazard potential. Theoretical considerations, laboratory experiments and field investigations all indicate that the saturation conditions of the sediment along the flow path can greatly influence the amount of sediment entrained. However, this process is usually not considered for practical applications. This study aims to close this gap by combining runout and hydrological models into a predictive framework that is calibrated and tested using unique observations of sediment erosion and debris-flow properties available at a Swiss debris-flow observation station (Illgraben). To this end, hourly water input to the erodible channel is predicted using a simple, process-based hydrological model, and the resulting water saturation level in the upper sediment layer of the channel is modelled based on a Hortonian infiltration concept. Debris-flow entrainment is then predicted using the RAMMS debris-flow runout model. We find a strong correlation between the modelled saturation level of the sediment on the flow path and the channel-bed erodibility for single-surge debris-flow events with distinct fronts, indicating that the modelled water content is a good predictor for erosion simulated in RAMMS. Debris-flow properties with more complex flow behaviour (e.g., multiple surges or roll waves) are not as well predicted using this procedure, indicating that more physically complete models are necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how this modelling framework can be used for climate change impact assessment and show that earlier snowmelt may shift the peak of the debris-flow season to earlier in the year. Our novel modelling framework provides a plausible approach to reproduce saturation-dependent entrainment and thus better constrain event volumes for current and future hazard assessment.

Illgraben basin↗
USGS2023

Scaling microseismic cloud shape during hydraulic stimulation using in-situ stress and permeability

Forecasting microseismic cloud shape as a proxy of stimulated rock volume may improve the design of an energy extraction system. The microseismic cloud created during hydraulic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs is known empirically to extend in the general direction of the maximum principal stress. However, this empirical relationship is often inconsistent with reported results, and the cloud growth process remains poorly understood. This study investigates microseismic cloud growth using data obtained from a hydraulic stimulation project in Basel, Switzerland, and explores its correlation with measured in situ stress. We applied principal component analysis to a time series of microseismicity for macroscopic characterization of microseismic cloud growth in two- and three-dimensional space. The microseismic cloud, in addition to extending in the general direction of maximum principal stress, expanded in the direction of intermediate principal stress. The orientation of the least microseismic cloud growth was stable and almost identical to the minimum principal stress direction. Further, microseismic cloud shape ratios showed good agreement when compared with in situ stress magnitude ratios. The permeability tensor estimated from microseismicity also provided a good correlation in terms of direction and magnitude with the microseismic cloud growth. We show that in situ stress plays a dominant role by controlling the permeability of each existing fracture in the reservoir fracture system. Consequently, microseismic cloud growth can be scaled by in situ stress as a first-order approximation if there is sufficient variation in the orientation of existing faults.

Basel↗
USGS2021

Biodiversity effects on grape quality depend on variety and management intensity

Interactions between plants can be beneficial, detrimental or neutral. In agricultural systems, competition between crop and spontaneous vegetation is a major concern. We evaluated the relative support for three non-exclusive ecological hypotheses about interactions between crop and spontaneous plants based on competition, complementarity or facilitation. The study was conducted in Swiss vineyards with different vegetation management intensities. In all, 33 vineyards planted with two different grape varieties were studied over 3 years to determine whether low-intensity vegetation management might provide benefits for grape quality parameters. Management intensity varied with the degree of control of spontaneous inter-row vegetation. Features of spontaneous vegetation measured included total cover, total species richness and abundance of nitrogen-fixing plants. Grape quality parameters of known importance to wine making (yeast assimilable nitrogen, sugars, tartaric acid and malic acid) were determined by Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Using structural equation modelling, we evaluated hypotheses about the multivariate responses of grape quality parameters as well as the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of management. Observed effects of management differed between grape varieties. Management intensity and abundance of N-fixing plants significantly influenced grape quality parameters while total richness of spontaneous plants did not have detectable effects. Abundance of N-fixing plants was enhanced by low-intensity management resulting in increased N content in the red grape variety Pinot noir , potentially enhancing grape quality, while measured soil N content did not explain the increase. Synthesis and applications . Our study shows that crop quality can be enhanced by spontaneous plants, in this case by the abundance of a key functional group (N-fixers), most likely through plant–plant or plant–microbe facilitation. However, beneficial interactions may have a high specificity in terms of facilitation partners and may have contrasting effects at low taxonomic resolutions such as crop varieties. Generally, increasing plant biodiversity in agricultural systems may increase competition with crops. Thus, the identification of suitable interaction partners and a careful balance between crop variety and spontaneous plant species may be necessary to utilize beneficial interactions and to reduce the trade-off between agricultural production and biodiversity to achieve a sustainable ecological benefit in agricultural systems.

Canton of Valais↗
USGS2020

Resolving small-scale forest snow patterns using an energy-balance snow model with a 1-layer canopy

Modelling spatiotemporal dynamics of snow in forests is challenging, as involved processes are strongly dependent on small-scale canopy properties. In this study, we explore how local canopy structure information can be integrated in a medium-complexity energy-balance snow model to replicate observed snow patterns at very high spatial resolutions. Snow depth distributions simulated with the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2) were tested against extensive experimental data acquired in discontinuous subalpine forest stands in Eastern Switzerland over three winters. While the default canopy implementation in FSM2 fails to capture the observed snow depth variability, performance is considerably improved when local canopy cover fraction and hemispherical sky view fraction are additionally accounted for (30% reduction in RMSE). However, realistic snow depth distribution patterns throughout the season are only achieved if effective temperatures of near and distant canopy elements are discerned, and if a mechanism to mimic preferential deposition of snow in canopy gaps is included. We demonstrate that by diversifying the canopy structure input in order to reflect respective portions of the canopy relevant to different processes, even a simple model based on widely used process parametrizations and canopy metrics can be applied for high-resolution simulations of the sub-canopy snow cover with just a few modifications. The presented approaches could be implemented in commonly used land surface models, allowing upscaling experiments and development of sub-grid parametrizations without necessitating complex high-resolution models.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2018

ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

In Switzerland, nearly all historical Mw ~ 6 earthquakes have induced damaging landslides, rockslides and snow avalanches that, in some cases, also resulted in damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. We describe the customisation to Swiss conditions of a globally calibrated statistical approach originally developed to rapidly assess earthquake-induced landslide likelihoods worldwide. The probability of occurrence of such earthquake-induced effects is modelled through a set of geospatial susceptibility proxies and peak ground acceleration. The predictive model is tuned to capture the observations from past events and optimised for near-real-time estimates based on USGS-style ShakeMaps routinely produced by the Swiss Seismological Service. Our emphasis is on the use of high-resolution geospatial datasets along with additional local information on ground failure susceptibility. Even if calibrated on historic events with moderate magnitudes, the methodology presented in this paper yields sensible results also for low-magnitude recent events. The model is integrated in the Swiss ShakeMap framework. This study has a high practical relevance to many Swiss ShakeMap stakeholders, especially those managing lifeline systems, and to other global users interested in conducting a similar customisation for their region of interest.

Natural Hazards↗
USGS2017

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

Regional Environmental Change↗
USGS2013

Evaluating model structure adequacy: The case of the Maggia Valley groundwater system, southern Switzerland

Model adequacy is evaluated with alternative models rated using model selection criteria (AICc, BIC, and KIC) and three other statistics. Model selection criteria are tested with cross-validation experiments and insights for using alternative models to evaluate model structural adequacy are provided. The study is conducted using the computer codes UCODE_2005 and MMA (MultiModel Analysis). One recharge alternative is simulated using the TOPKAPI hydrological model. The predictions evaluated include eight heads and three flows located where ecological consequences and model precision are of concern. Cross-validation is used to obtain measures of prediction accuracy. Sixty-four models were designed deterministically and differ in representation of river, recharge, bedrock topography, and hydraulic conductivity. Results include: (1) What may seem like inconsequential choices in model construction may be important to predictions. Analysis of predictions from alternative models is advised. (2) None of the model selection criteria consistently identified models with more accurate predictions. This is a disturbing result that suggests to reconsider the utility of model selection criteria, and/or the cross-validation measures used in this work to measure model accuracy. (3) KIC displayed poor performance for the present regression problems; theoretical considerations suggest that difficulties are associated with wide variations in the sensitivity term of KIC resulting from the models being nonlinear and the problems being ill-posed due to parameter correlations and insensitivity. The other criteria performed somewhat better, and similarly to each other. (4) Quantities with high leverage are more difficult to predict. The results are expected to be generally applicable to models of environmental systems.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2011

Self-potential investigations of a gravel bar in a restored river corridor

Self-potentials (SP) are sensitive to water fluxes and concentration gradients in both saturated and unsaturated geological media, but quantitative interpretations of SP field data may often be hindered by the superposition of different source contributions and time-varying electrode potentials. Self-potential mapping and close to two months of SP monitoring on a gravel bar were performed to investigate the origins of SP signals at a restored river section of the Thur River in northeastern Switzerland. The SP mapping and subsequent inversion of the data indicate that the SP sources are mainly located in the upper few meters in regions of soil cover rather than bare gravel. Wavelet analyses of the time-series indicate a strong, but non-linear influence of water table and water content variations, as well as rainfall intensity on the recorded SP signals. Modeling of the SP response with respect to an increase in the water table elevation and precipitation indicate that the distribution of soil properties in the vadose zone has a very strong influence. We conclude that the observed SP responses on the gravel bar are more complicated than previously proposed semi-empiric relationships between SP signals and hydraulic head or the thickness of the vadose zone. We suggest that future SP monitoring in restored river corridors should either focus on quantifying vadose zone processes by installing vertical profiles of closely spaced SP electrodes or by installing the electrodes within the river to avoid signals arising from vadose zone processes and time-varying electrochemical conditions in the vicinity of the electrodes.

Lake Constance, Neunforn, Thur catchment, Thur val↗
USGS2010

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species‐ and location‐specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species‐specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

Ecology↗
USGS2004

Stress field variations in the Swiss Alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions

This study is devoted to a systematic analysis of the state of stress of the central European Alps and northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland based on focal mechanisms of 138 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 5. The most robust feature of the results is that the azimuth of the minimum compressive stress, S 3 , is generally well constrained for all data subsets and always lies in the NE quadrant. However, within this quadrant, the orientation of S 3 changes systematically both along the structural strike of the Alpine chain and across it. The variation in stress along the mountain belt from NE to SW involves a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of S 3 and is most clear in the foreland, where it amounts to 45°–50°. This pattern of rotation is compatible with the disturbance to the stress field expected from the indentation of the Adriatic Block into the central European Plate, possibly together with buoyancy forces arising from the strongly arcuate structure of the Moho to the immediate west of our study area. Across the Alps, the variation in azimuth of S 3 is defined by a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of about 45° from the foreland in the north across the Helvetic domain to the Penninic nappes in the south and is accompanied by a change from a slight predominance of strike-slip mechanisms in the foreland to a strong predominance of normal faulting in the high parts of the Alps. The observed rotation can be explained by the perturbation of the large-scale regional stress by a local uniaxial deviatoric tension with a magnitude similar to that of the regional differential stress and with an orientation perpendicular to the strike of the Alpine belt. The tensile nature and orientation of this stress is consistent with the “spreading” stress expected from lateral density changes due to a crustal root beneath the Alps.

European Alps↗
USGS2004

Sex ratio estimation and survival analysis for Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata, Libellulidae)

There is controversy over whether uneven sex ratios observed in mature dragonfly populations are a mere artifact resulting from the higher observability of males. Previous studies have at best made indirect inference about sex ratios by analysis of survival or recapture rates. Here, we obtain direct estimates of sex ratio from capture-recapture data based on the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. We studied Orthetrum coerulescens (Fabricius, 1798) at three sites in the Swiss Jura Mountains over an entire activity period. Recapture rates per 5-day interval were 3.5 times greater for males (0.67, SE 0.02) than for females (0.19, SE 0.02). At two sites, recapture rate increased over the season for males and was constant for females, and at one site it decreased with precipitation for both sexes. In addition, recapture rate was higher with higher temperature for males only. We found no evidence for higher male survival rates in any population. Survival per 5-day interval for both sexes was estimated to be 0.77 ( 95% CI 0.75–0.79 ) without significant site or time-specific variation. There were clear effects of temperature (positive) and precipitation (negative) on survival rate at two sites. Direct estimates of sex ratios were not significantly different from 1 for any time interval. Hence, the observed male-biased sex ratio in adult O. coerulescens was an artifact resulting from the better observability of males. The method presented in this paper is applicable to sex ratio estimation in any kind of animal.

Jura Mountains↗