Geology topics

Research about Sweden

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Sweden.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Rising atmospheric CO2 reduces nitrogen availability in boreal forests

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) pollution has been emphasized as a cause of eutrophication globally. However, several recent datasets have suggested widespread oligotrophication may be occurring in some ecosystems, which is suggested to be a response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ). Plant δ 15 N chronologies have served as primary evidence for oligotrophication, however, there has been wide disagreement whether eCO 2 or temporal changes in N deposition explain these patterns. We constructed δ 15 N tree ring chronologies across Sweden’s 23.5 million hectare productive forest area from the 1950s to 2010s. The study area spans a 1500 km latitudinal distance where N deposition varies four-fold, but where eCO 2 is spatially uniform. Our data revealed negative δ 15 N chronologies throughout Sweden, including forests in the far north where atmospheric N deposition rates are very low. Linear mixed effects models showed that eCO 2 was by far the strongest predictor of δ 15 N values, whereas N deposition variables, temperature, and forest basal area had much lower explanatory power. Our results clarify debates on the interpretation of previous δ 15 N chronologies, and provide clear evidence that eCO 2 is causing oligotrophication in boreal forests, which has implications for predicting their future role as sinks in the global carbon cycle.

Nature↗

USGS2026

Metal induced chitinozoan malformations link the Mid-Ludfordian OAE to the venting of metalliferous hydrothermal basin brines into the Silurian Ocean

The mechanisms driving Silurian Ocean Anoxic Events (OAEs) and their impact on marine biota remain poorly understood. Previous studies linked chitinozoan (fossil zooplankton) malformations to heavy metal toxicity under expanding reducing oceanic conditions during the onset of some of these events. Importantly, these malformations represent in vivo reactions to changing paleoenvironmental stress and may serve as a sensitive indicator of marine metal loading and the geochemical processes driving Silurian extinction events. In the current study this hypothesis is tested for the prominent Mid- Ludfordian (upper Silurian) OAE. The onset of the event is examined using the thick and well preserved stratigraphic records in outcrop at Bodudd 1 (Gotland, Sweden). A bed-by-bed collection of 101 samples were analyzed for their whole rock geochemistry with chitinozoan malformations quantified in 66 samples. A total of 587.241 specimens were counted with 133 confirmed malformations and 87 potentially malformed, occurring in two intervals that correlate with Mn enrichments. Notably, malformations appear in the lowermost sample in the section, below the carbon isotope excursion, indicating that biotic stress preceded perturbations to the global carbon cycle. In addition to Mn, anomalies in Zn and Pb are present, alongside minor enrichments in Hg, Co, and Sb. The stratigraphic position of metal anomalies corresponds with an extraordinarily rapid rise in marine Sr isotope compositions. The pulsed nature of trace metal enrichments, the distinct elemental suite, and diagnostic spikes in radiogenic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr support the emerging model that episodic venting of metalliferous hydrothermal brines was the primary trigger for this and other Silurian OAEs.

Gotland↗

USGS2025

Leisure boat harbours, hidden alien species, and pollution: A case study of Hinsholmskilen harbour (Gothenburg, Sweden)

Small leisure boat harbours have important aesthetic and recreational values in any country with a coastline. In Sweden, there are about 860 000 leisure boats, which is one of the world's highest numbers in relation to the country's population. However, small boat harbours also present a wide range of environmental problems, including the introduction of alien species and high pollution. In this study, we investigated the ecological quality status (EcoQS) of the Hinsholmskilen small boat harbour, located southwest of the city of Gothenburg (Sweden). We performed a reconnaissance survey of the harbour's previously unstudied benthic foraminiferal communities and analysed surface sediment (0–2 cm) samples for potentially toxic elements: copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As). The results show that, based on the total benthic foraminiferal distribution (dead and live specimens), the assemblages in Hinsholmskilen harbour represent a typical European estuarine community with highly abundant Ammonia and Elphidium species. Based on molecular and morphological data, we report the presence of two alien and putatively invasive species likely originating from Asia: Trochammina hadai and Ammonia confertitesta (phylotype T6). Both species have recently been identified elsewhere on the Swedish west coast based on molecular and morphological data but do not have a well-known distribution. The sediment analysis for potentially toxic elements showed that the harbour has good to high EcoQS corresponding to no or little deviation from reference conditions for Cd, Co, Ni, and Pb distribution. Some of the contaminants (Pb, As, Zn, and Cr) showed poor to bad EcoQS in the innermost harbour in proximity to high-pressure cleaning plants, where boats are usually lifted, cleaned, and prepared for winter storage on land. Finally, Cu and Hg showed consistently bad and poor EcoQS all over the harbour, reflecting the use of both metals as biocides in antifouling boat paints.

Gothenburg↗

USGS2025

Identifying strategies to manage boreal forests: Simulating moose and timber management scenarios at a landscape scale in the face of changing environmental conditions

There are ongoing debates among different stakeholders about which forest and ungulate management strategies will sustain high levels of timber and animal harvest and maintain important ecosystem functions under climate change. Ungulate-forest interactions are complex, including periods where forest regeneration is sensitive to browsing pressure, making it difficult to predict the consequences of a given strategy over time. To aid decision-making, we simulated the impacts of moose browsing on forest succession under 18 different combinations of moose ( Alces alces ) harvest rate levels and forest management scenarios in a boreal forest landscape in southern Sweden given projected changes in forest growth due to climate change. We found that the current management practices are important for sustaining a moose-forest system. Increasing moose harvest rates led to slightly smaller moose populations, larger estimates of landscape carrying capacity, and less biomass removal of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), a commercially valuable species. However, minor changes in the moose harvest were hardly affecting timber production. Increasing the timber harvest rotation time led to the highest estimates of Scots pine biomass, while thinning younger cohorts lead to the highest estimates of Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) biomass. These changes came without much effect to moose population dynamics. However, the increased broadleaf production scenario had a very large positive effect on total aboveground live biomass of deciduous species and on landscape carrying capacity and moose density. This scenario subsequently resulted in the greatest estimates of biomass removal of Scots pine, highlighting the tradeoffs associated with increased moose production.

European Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2023

From bottom-up to top-down control of invertebrate herbivores in a retrogressive chronosequence

In the long-term absence of disturbance, ecosystems often enter a decline or retrogressive phase which leads to reductions in primary productivity, plant biomass, nutrient cycling and foliar quality. However, the consequences of ecosystem retrogression for higher trophic levels such as herbivores and predators, are less clear. Using a post-fire forested island-chronosequence across which retrogression occurs, we provide evidence that nutrient availability strongly controls invertebrate herbivore biomass when predators are few, but that there is a switch from bottom-up to top-down control when predators are common. This trophic flip in herbivore control probably arises because invertebrate predators respond to alternative energy channels from the adjacent aquatic matrix, which were independent of terrestrial plant biomass. Our results suggest that effects of nutrient limitation resulting from ecosystem retrogression on trophic cascades are modified by nutrient-independent variation in predator abundance, and this calls for a more holistic approach to trophic ecology to better understand herbivore effects on plant communities.

Lake Hornavan, Lake Uddjaure↗

USGS2021

Consequences of migratory coupling of predators and prey when mediated by human actions

Aim Animal migrations influence ecosystem structure, dynamics and persistence of predator and prey populations. The theory of migratory coupling postulates that aggregations of migrant prey can induce large-scale synchronized movements in predators, and this coupling is consequential for the dynamics of ecological communities. The degree to which humans influence these interactions remains largely unknown. We tested whether creation of large resource pulses by humans such as seasonal herding of reindeer Rangifer tarandus and hunting of moose, Alces alces , can induce migratory coupling with Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos, and whether these lead to demographic consequences for the eagles. Location Fennoscandia. Methods We used movement data from 32 tracked Golden Eagles spanning 125 annual migratory cycles over 8 years. We obtained reindeer distribution data through collaboration with reindeer herders based on satellite tracking of reindeer, and moose harvest data from the national hunting statistics for Sweden. We assessed demographic consequences for eagles from ingesting lead from ammunition fragments in moose carcasses through survival estimates and their links with lead concentrations in eagles' blood. Results In spring, eagles migrated hundreds of kilometres to be spatially and temporally coupled with calving reindeer, whereas in autumn, eagles matched their distribution with the location and timing of moose hunt. Juveniles were more likely to couple with reindeer calving, whereas adults were particularly drawn to areas of higher moose harvest. Due to this coupling, eagles ingested lead from spent ammunition in moose offal and carcasses and the resulting lead toxicity increased the risk of mortality by 3.4 times. Main conclusions We show how migratory coupling connects landscape processes and that human actions can influence migratory coupling over large spatial scales and increase demographic risks for predators. We provide vital knowledge towards resolving human–wildlife conflicts and the conservation of protected species over a large spatial and temporal scale.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2019

Pyritization history in the middle to upper Cambrian Alum Shale, Scania Sweden: Evidence for ongoing diagenetic processes

Detailed diagenetic studies of the late Cambrian Alum Shale in southern Sweden were undertaken across an interval that includes the peak Steptoean Positive Carbon Isotope Excursion (SPICE) event to evaluate the pyrite mineralization history in the formation. Samples were collected from the Andrarum-3 core (Scania, Sweden); here the Alum was deposited in the distal, siliciclastic mudstone-rich end of a shelf system. Abundant cryptobioturbation is observed in the Alum, which points to oxic–dysoxic conditions prevailing during deposition. Petrographic examination of polished thin sections ( n = 65) reveals the presence of numerous texturally distinct types of pyrite, including matrix framboids, two different types of framboid concretions (those with rims of iron-dolomite and those lacking rims), disseminated euhedral pyrite crystals, concretions of euhedral pyrite crystals, overgrowths of pyrite on these different pyrite generations, anhedral pyrite intergrown with bedding parallel mineralized fractures (i.e., “beef”), and massive vertical/subvertical accumulations of pyrite. Paragenetic relationships outline the relative timing of formation of the texturally distinct pyrite. Framboids and framboid concretions formed prior to precipitation of any euhedral pyrite crystals, and these pyrite generations precipitated prior to the pyrite overgrowths on them. As Alum Shale sediments are all distorted by these texturally different pyrite generations, they are likely to have formed early in the postdepositional history of the formation. In contrast, pyrite associated with “beef” is likely temporally related to the onset of hydrocarbon generation, which in this part of Sweden is thought to have been many tens of millions of years after deposition. Because vertical/subvertical massive pyrite features distort “beef,” they clearly postdate it. Of all these pyrite textures, only framboid concretions appear to be restricted to the SPICE interval. The texturally distinct nature of the pyrite generations, along with evidence of their formation at different times in the postdepositional history of the Alum Shale, is the key outcome of this petrographic study. Because the petrographic data presented herein point to a postdeposition origin for all generations of pyrite, diagenetic processes—not those processes associated with deposition—were responsible for the complex pyritization history observed in the Alum, in the Andrarum-3 core.

Scania↗

USGS2018

The complexity of mudstone diagenesis - some insight from the Tøyen Formation, Lower to Middle Ordovician, southern Sweden

The Lower to Middle Ordovician Tøyen Shale in southern Sweden, a biostratigraphically well-dated siliciclastic mudstone unit, shows 18 distinct authigenic cements that include sulfides, carbonates, silicates, clays, and phosphates. Marcasite, sphalerite, galena, and six texturally distinct types of pyrite characterize the sulfides whereas only one type of dolomite and three different generations of calcite are observed in this unit. Quartz, phosphate, and organic matter occur as only one generation each. Authigenic clay minerals are represented by chlorite and kaolinite. The paragenetic sequence of cements is subdivided into the two pre-burial carbonates, succeeded by ten relatively early burial cements, and six late burial cements, the kaolinite being the latest of them all and potentially being of Cretaceous age. Based on textural relationships, the paragenetic sequence of alterations started with dolomite precipitation followed by calcite, and then five different generations of pyrite. All eleven other phases post-date these initial seven cements in the Tøyen Shale.

GFF↗

USGS2017

Paleohydrological methods and some examples from Swedish fluvial environments. II - River meanders

Empirical relations are developed between river-meander features and water-discharge characteristics for 19 reaches along Swedish rivers. In these relations, either average channel width or average radius of curvature of meander arcs can be used to estimate average annual peak discharge and average daily discharge. By accepting certain assumptions, the relations can be applied to other meandering Swedish rivers, present or ancient. The Öster-Dalälven River near Mora is used as an example.

Geografiska Annaler, Series A↗

USGS2015

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2015

Can low-resolution airborne laser scanning data be used to model stream rating curves?

This pilot study explores the potential of using low-resolution (0.2 points/m 2 ) airborne laser scanning (ALS)-derived elevation data to model stream rating curves. Rating curves, which allow the functional translation of stream water depth into discharge, making them integral to water resource monitoring efforts, were modeled using a physics-based approach that captures basic geometric measurements to establish flow resistance due to implicit channel roughness. We tested synthetically thinned high-resolution (more than 2 points/m 2 ) ALS data as a proxy for low-resolution data at a point density equivalent to that obtained within most national-scale ALS strategies. Our results show that the errors incurred due to the effect of low-resolution versus high-resolution ALS data were less than those due to flow measurement and empirical rating curve fitting uncertainties. As such, although there likely are scale and technical limitations to consider, it is theoretically possible to generate rating curves in a river network from ALS data of the resolution anticipated within national-scale ALS schemes (at least for rivers with relatively simple geometries). This is promising, since generating rating curves from ALS scans would greatly enhance our ability to monitor streamflow by simplifying the overall effort required.

Krycklan catchment↗

USGS2015

Linking degradation status with ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change

Environmental change can cause regime shifts in ecosystems, potentially threatening ecosystem services. It is unclear if the degradation status of ecosystems correlates with their vulnerability to environmental change, and thus the risk of future regime shifts. We assessed resilience in acidified (degraded) and circumneutral (undegraded) lakes with long-term data (1988–2012), using time series modeling. We identified temporal frequencies in invertebrate assemblages, which identifies groups of species whose population dynamics vary at particular temporal scales. We also assessed species with stochastic dynamics, those whose population dynamics vary irregularly and unpredictably over time. We determined the distribution of functional feeding groups of invertebrates within and across the temporal scales identified, and in those species with stochastic dynamics, and assessed attributes hypothesized to contribute to resilience. Three patterns of temporal dynamics, consistent across study lakes, were identified in the invertebrates. The first pattern was one of monotonic change associated with changing abiotic lake conditions. The second and third patterns appeared unrelated to the environmental changes we monitored. Acidified and the circumneutral lakes shared similar levels and patterns of functional richness, evenness, diversity, and redundancy for species within and across the observed temporal scales and for stochastic species groups. These similar resilience characteristics suggest that both lake types did not differ in vulnerability to the environmental changes observed here. Although both lake types appeared equally vulnerable in this study, our approach demonstrates how assessing systemic vulnerability by quantifying ecological resilience can help address uncertainty in predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change across ecosystems.

Oecologia↗

USGS2015

Sedimentology of SPICE (Steptoean positive carbon isotope excursion): A high-resolution trace fossil and microfabric analysis of the middle to late Cambrian Alum Shale Formation, southern Sweden

The Cambrian Alum Shale Formation in the Andrarum-3 core from Scania, southern Sweden, consists of black siliciclastic mudstone with minor carbonate intercalations. Four facies comprise three siliciclastic mudstones and one fine-grained carbonate. The facies reflect deposition along a transect from deep ramp to basin on a Cambrian shelf. The three mudstone facies contain abundant clay clasts and laterally variable siltstone laminae. Bed-load transport processes seem to have dominated deposition on this deep shelf. These sedimentary rocks record mainly event deposition, and only relatively few, thin laminae probably resulted from suspension settling. The Alum Shale Formation deep shelf did not show a bioturbation gradient, but fecal strings are common and Planolites burrows are rare in all mudstone facies. Evidence for biotic colonization indicates that this mudstone environment was not persistently anoxic, but rather was most likely intermittently dysoxic. The Alum Shale Formation in the Andrarum-3 core shows an overall decrease of grain size, preserved energy indicators, and carbonate content upsection interpreted to reflect a deepening upward. The succession can also be divided into four small-scale fining-upward cycles that represent deepening, and four overlying coarsening-upward cycles that represent upward shallowing.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Similar resilience attributes in lakes with different management practices

Liming has been used extensively in Scandinavia and elsewhere since the 1970s to counteract the negative effects of acidification. Communities in limed lakes usually return to acidified conditions once liming is discontinued, suggesting that liming is unlikely to shift acidified lakes to a state equivalent to pre-acidification conditions that requires no further management intervention. While this suggests a low resilience of limed lakes, attributes that confer resilience have not been assessed, limiting our understanding of the efficiency of costly management programs. In this study, we assessed community metrics (diversity, richness, evenness, biovolume), multivariate community structure and the relative resilience of phytoplankton in limed, acidified and circum-neutral lakes from 1997 to 2009, using multivariate time series modeling. We identified dominant temporal frequencies in the data, allowing us to track community change at distinct temporal scales. We assessed two attributes of relative resilience (cross-scale and within-scale structure) of the phytoplankton communities, based on the fluctuation frequency patterns identified. We also assessed species with stochastic temporal dynamics. Liming increased phytoplankton diversity and richness; however, multivariate community structure differed in limed relative to acidified and circum-neutral lakes. Cross-scale and within-scale attributes of resilience were similar across all lakes studied but the contribution of those species exhibiting stochastic dynamics was higher in the acidified and limed compared to circum-neutral lakes. From a resilience perspective, our results suggest that limed lakes comprise a particular condition of an acidified lake state. This explains why liming does not move acidified lakes out of a “degraded” basin of attraction. In addition, our study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess the efficiency of restoration and management outcomes through quantification of the attributes contributing to resilience in ecosystems.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Alternative waste residue materials for passive in situ prevention of sulfide-mine tailings oxidation: A field evaluation

Novel solutions for sulfide-mine tailings remediation were evaluated in field-scale experiments on a former tailings repository in northern Sweden. Uncovered sulfide-tailings were compared to sewage-sludge biosolid amended tailings over 2 years. An application of a 0.2 m single-layer sewage-sludge amendment was unsuccessful at preventing oxygen ingress to underlying tailings. It merely slowed the sulfide-oxidation rate by 20%. In addition, sludge-derived metals (Cu, Ni, Fe, and Zn) migrated and precipitated at the tailings-to-sludge interface. By using an additional 0.6 m thick fly-ash sealing layer underlying the sewage sludge layer, a solution to mitigate oxygen transport to the underlying tailings and minimize sulfide-oxidation was found. The fly-ash acted as a hardened physical barrier that prevented oxygen diffusion and provided a trap for sludge-borne metals. Nevertheless, the biosolid application hampered the application, despite the advances in the effectiveness of the fly-ash layer, as sludge-borne nitrate leached through the cover system into the underlying tailings, oxidizing pyrite. This created a 0.3 m deep oxidized zone in 6-years. This study highlights that using sewage sludge in unconventional cover systems is not always a practical solution for the remediation of sulfide-bearing mine tailings to mitigate against sulfide weathering and acid rock drainage formation.

Skellefteï¿½;Stockholm↗

USGS2014

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Krycklan River↗

USGS2013

Tree growth and competition in an old-growth Picea abies forest of boreal Sweden: influence of tree spatial patterning

Question: What factors best characterize tree competitive environments in this structurally diverse old-growth forest, and do these factors vary spatially within and among stands? Location: Old-growth Picea abies forest of boreal Sweden. Methods: Using long-term, mapped permanent plot data augmented with dendrochronological analyses, we evaluated the effect of neighbourhood competition on focal tree growth by means of standard competition indices, each modified to include various metrics of trees size, neighbour mortality weighting (for neighbours that died during the inventory period), and within-neighbourhood tree clustering. Candidate models were evaluated using mixed-model linear regression analyses, with mean basal area increment as the response variable. We then analysed stand-level spatial patterns of competition indices and growth rates (via kriging) to determine if the relationship between these patterns could further elucidate factors influencing tree growth. Results: Inter-tree competition clearly affected growth rates, with crown volume being the size metric most strongly influencing the neighbourhood competitive environment. Including neighbour tree mortality weightings in models only slightly improved descriptions of competitive interactions. Although the within-neighbourhood clustering index did not improve model predictions, competition intensity was influenced by the underlying stand-level tree spatial arrangement: stand-level clustering locally intensified competition and reduced tree growth, whereas in the absence of such clustering, inter-tree competition played a lesser role in constraining tree growth. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that competition continues to influence forest processes and structures in an old-growth system that has not experienced major disturbances for at least two centuries. The finding that the underlying tree spatial pattern influenced the competitive environment suggests caution in interpreting traditional tree competition studies, in which tree spatial patterning is typically not taken into account. Our findings highlight the importance of forest structure – particularly the spatial arrangement of trees – in regulating inter-tree competition and growth in structurally diverse forests, and they provide insight into the causes and consequences of heterogeneity in this old-growth system.

Vï¿½sterbotten County↗

USGS2013

Brine intrusion by upconing for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Forsmark: Scoping calculations

SSM currently reviews a license application for a spent nuclear fuel repository that is proposed to be located at Forsmark, Sweden. The repository is to be situated at 500 m depth in the rock and copper canisters are deposited in holes excavated from the tunnel system. To protect the canisters they are surrounded by a bentonite clay buffer, which is to swell when getting in contact with water. The swelling properties are dependent on the salt content of the water and excessively high salt contents may inhibit the swelling. Thus it is important to ensure that the bentonite is not subjected to water with too high salt contents. The salt content of the groundwater increases with depth and is expected to reach levels that may affect buffer performance at large depths. When excavating the repository very high hydraulic gradients are established and water and salt movement from the depth to the repository, so-called ‘upconing’, could possibly occur. The objective of this study is to evaluate the possibility of salt-water migration to the repository. This objective is motivated by the adverse impacts of water with too high salinity entering the repository and by the uncertainty of the relevant hydraulic and hydrogeochemical conditions at the Forsmark site at great depths. To analyse density dependent flow and salt transport at the Forsmark site the USGS’ SUTRA code is used. This study proceeds by finding critical model cases for which upconing does or does not occur, while assessing whether the parameterizations of these cases are realistic for the Forsmark site. In addition, the fall of the upconed salt mound (i.e. downconing) following closure of the repository is also evaluated. In particular the objectives are (1) to determine the factors that control saltwater upconing in a hydrogeological setting representative of Forsmark; (2) to relate these factors to the plausible conditions prevailing at the repository site; (3) to investigate whether the proposed repository is likely to generate saltwater upconing, given the range of uncertainty in hydrogeologic structure and parameter values; and (4) to evaluate the timing of upconing (salinization) and the timing of downconing (freshening) following repository closure for cases where upconing occurs. The results of this simulation analysis show that upconing behavior is strongly affected by the ratio of permeability to porosity in any zone in which upconing might occur. Within the full range of parameters that are likely to occur at the Forsmark site, the model yields either no significant upconing at all during the operational period of the repository or intrusion of brine-type waters after only one to a few decades.

Forsmark↗