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Research about Southern California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Southern California.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

ETAS-positive: Extracting unbiased epidemic-type aftershock models from incomplete earthquake catalogs

Earthquake catalogs are inherently incomplete, and short-term fluctuations in catalog completeness can strongly bias estimates of seismicity parameters. Here, we extend the positive statistics framework recently introduced for estimating Gutenberg–Richter a and b values to the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The approach focuses on complete magnitude–time intervals defined by pairs of earthquakes in which the second event is larger than the first. Comprehensive synthetic tests demonstrate that the proposed ETAS + method retrieves nearly unbiased parameter estimates even from highly incomplete catalogs, whereas parameters obtained using classical estimation approaches are strongly biased. Application to Southern California reveals a similar trend, with the productivity scaling parameter α approaching the b value, consistent with self-similar earthquake triggering within estimation uncertainties. Owing to its robustness against catalog incompleteness and computational efficiency, the ETAS + method provides a powerful new tool for seismicity analysis and earthquake forecasting.

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USGS2024

Methods to evaluate and improve the modeling of rupture directivity in assessment of seismic hazard

In recent years, there have been several advancements related to the modelling of near-source effects of earthquake rupture on strong ground shaking, leading to an improved characterization of ground motions and resulting seismic hazard. Some of these modifications have stemmed from physics-based numerical modelling of the earthquake rupture process, using physics-based dynamic rupture simulations. These contributions have led to a better understanding of how fault rupture characteristics, geometry, and the style of faulting can interact with the hypocenter-dependence on the path from source to site that may ultimately guide the development of seismic directivity models. Moving forward, the application of modern techniques can be used to incorporate these source characteristics and near-fault ground motion behavior that contribute to the azimuthally varying effects that result in rupture directivity. One example is the application of machine learning methods to support more automated integration of new predictor variables in model development and open more evaluation opportunities to access residuals. Here, we utilize several techniques to take advantage of the plethora of synthetic data and its ability to supplement preexisting trends observed in data. We showcase two examples of how models can be either developed, expanded upon, or constrained using artificial neural network model (ANNs). We evaluate the performance of the ANN with existing methods, comparing misfit, potential limitations, and ability to continue to improve upon these methods in the future. One approach uses a set of simulations with corresponding synthetic ground motions from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) CyberShake study to develop a ground motion model adapted to incorporate seismic directivity information using an ANN. This large database (TBs) enables us to train the model to capture magnitude, period, and distance variations and how these parameters relate to amplification from hypocenters located along finite-faults. In some cases, there is reduced misfit from better representing source features that aren’t included in base ground motion models that neglect hypocenter location (e.g. azimuthal variation, source-to-site terms). Another ANN method uses a shallow-layered neural network model to better fit a hypocenter-independent model. This method adjusts the median and aleatory variability to account for the averaged impact of various hypocenter distributions to fit the underlying directivity adjustment model. This method serves as a template to apply to other directivity models, improving computational efficiency and more readily enabling integration in hazard codes.

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USGS2022

Debris flows originating from soil slips during rainstorms in Southern California

Debris flows generated during rainstorms present a greater risk of death and injury to southern California residents than all other kinds of slope failure combined. During the years 1962-1971, twenty-three people in the greater Los Angeles area died from being buried or struck by debris flows, all of which probably originated as soil slips. Soil slips and debris flows are recurring major natural geomorphological processes in the region. Soil slips are reconstituted into debris flows when the initial movement (sliding failure) of slabs of soil and wedges of ravine fill causes remoulding of the saturated moving mass into viscous, debris-laden mud, which then flows down available drainage courses. This change of state results in a marked reduction in resistance to shear, permitting masses to accelerate down the same slopes on which, only moments earlier, the slabs of soil mantle had barely overcome the resistance to sliding. Many flows reach avalanche speeds and do not begin to deposit significant amounts of detritus until they reach lower gradients far from their sources. The deposits form steep ‘alluvial’ fans at the mouths of short, steep drainage basins tributary to broad valleys, and form debris trains in and along narrow trunk canyons below the mouths of short, steep tributaries. The exceptional storm period of January 18th to 26th, 1969, was accompanied by thousands of soil slips and provided an unusual opportunity to determine the times of occurrence of numerous debris flows, establish their origin from soil slips, and compare the times of those events with rainfall records from an extensive network of continuously recording rain gauges and a sequential set of radar weather maps. An empirical association between soil slips and rainfall suggests that a 10 inch antecedent rainfall is required to bring most of the colluvial soil of the area to field capacity, and 0.25 inch-per-hour is the minimum rate at which surface infiltration exceeds subsoil drainage for most of the colluvial soils of the area so that pore pressures are raised in a zone above the less permeable parent materials. Soil moisture of this level also appears to be sufficient so that most of the colluvial soils of the area will become at least partly liquid when disturbed. GeoRef Subject

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USGS2021

Detrital signals of coastal erosion and fluvial sediment supply during glacio-eustatic sea-level rise, Southern California, USA

Coastal erosion, including sea-cliff retreat, represents both an important component of some sediment budgets and a significant threat to coastal communities in the face of rising sea level. Despite the importance of predicting future rates of coastal erosion, few prehistoric constraints exist on the relative importance of sediment supplied by coastal erosion versus rivers with respect to past sea-level change. We used detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology as a provenance tracer of river and deep-sea fan deposits from the Southern California Borderland (United States) to estimate relative sediment contributions from rivers and coastal erosion from late Pleistocene to present. Mixture modeling of submarine canyon and fan samples indicates that detrital zircon was dominantly (55%–86%) supplied from coastal erosion during latest Pleistocene (ca. 13 ka) sea-level rise, with lesser contributions from rivers, on the basis of unique U-Pb age modes relative to local Peninsular Ranges bedrock sources. However, sediment that was deposited when sea level was stable at its highest and lowest points since the Last Glacial Maximum was dominantly supplied by rivers, suggesting decreased coastal erosion during periods of sea-level stability. We find that relative sediment supply from coastal erosion is strongly dependent on climate state, corroborating predictions of enhanced coastal erosion during future sea-level rise.

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USGS2015

Crustal-scale tilting of the central Salton block, southern California

The southern San Andreas fault system (California, USA) provides an excellent natural laboratory for studying the controls on vertical crustal motions related to strike-slip deformation. Here we present geologic, geomorphic, and gravity data that provide evidence for active northeastward tilting of the Santa Rosa Mountains and southern Coachella Valley about a horizontal axis oriented parallel to the San Jacinto and San Andreas faults. The Santa Rosa fault, a strand of the San Jacinto fault zone, is a large southwest-dipping normal fault on the west flank of the Santa Rosa Mountains that displays well-developed triangular facets, narrow footwall canyons, and steep hanging-wall alluvial fans. Geologic and geomorphic data reveal ongoing footwall uplift in the southern Santa Rosa Mountains, and gravity data suggest total vertical separation of ∼5.0–6.5 km from the range crest to the base of the Clark Valley basin. The northeast side of the Santa Rosa Mountains has a gentler topographic gradient, large alluvial fans, no major active faults, and tilted inactive late Pleistocene fan surfaces that are deeply incised by modern upper fan channels. Sediments beneath the Coachella Valley thicken gradually northeast to a depth of ∼4–5 km at an abrupt boundary at the San Andreas fault. These features all record crustal-scale tilting to the northeast that likely started when the San Jacinto fault zone initiated ca. 1.2 Ma. Tilting appears to be driven by oblique shortening and loading across a northeast-dipping southern San Andreas fault, consistent with the results of a recent boundary-element modeling study.

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USGS2014

Natural water losses in mountain drainage areas of southern California

For twenty‐five small mountain drainage areas of Southern California, natural water losses are shown to vary with basin altitude, and with estimated absorptive and retentive characteristics of the drainage areas. Among other relationships demonstrated is the increase of the annual natural water loss with increased annual precipitation to an optimum, beyond which the loss is about uniform regardless of increased precipitation.

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USGS2012

Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years

Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ± 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ≥ 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred off of the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ≥ 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ± 27% (95% confidence interval).

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USGS2012

The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California

There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is \$9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be \$84.42 per exposed person per day.

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USGS2011

Terrestrial source to deep-sea sink sediment budgets at high and low sea levels: Insights from tectonically active Southern California

Sediment routing from terrestrial source areas to the deep sea influences landscapes and seascapes and supply and filling of sedimentary basins. However, a comprehensive assessment of land-to-deep-sea sediment budgets over millennia with significant climate change is lacking. We provide source to sink sediment budgets using cosmogenic radionuclide–derived terrestrial denudation rates and submarine-fan deposition rates through sea-level fluctuations since oxygen isotope stage 3 (younger than 40 ka) in tectonically active, spatially restricted sediment-routing systems of Southern California. We show that source-area denudation and deep-sea deposition are balanced during a period of generally falling and low sea level (40–13 ka), but that deep-sea deposition exceeds terrestrial denudation during the subsequent period of rising and high sea level (younger than 13 ka). This additional supply of sediment is likely owed to enhanced dispersal of sediment across the shelf caused by seacliff erosion during postglacial shoreline transgression and initiation of submarine mass wasting. During periods of both low and high sea level, land and deep-sea sediment fluxes do not show orders of magnitude imbalances that might be expected in the wake of major sea-level changes. Thus, sediment-routing processes in a globally significant class of small, tectonically active systems might be fundamentally different from those of larger systems that drain entire orogens, in which sediment storage in coastal plains and wide continental shelves can exceed millions of years. Furthermore, in such small systems, depositional changes offshore can reflect onshore changes when viewed over time scales of several thousand years to more than 10 k.y.

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USGS2010

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center’s (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.

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USGS2009

Task 1: Whole-body concentrations of elements in kelp bass ( Paralabrax clathratus ), kelp rockfish ( Sebastes atrovirens ), and Pacific sanddab ( Citharichthys sordidus ) from offshore oil platforms and natural areas in the Southern California Bight

Resource managers are concerned that offshore oil platforms in the Southern California Bight may be contributing to environmental contaminants accumulated by marine fishes. To examine this possibility, 18 kelp bass ( Paralabrax clathratus ), 80 kelp rockfish ( Sebastes atrovirens ), and 98 Pacific sanddab ( Citharichthys sordidus ) were collected from five offshore oil platforms and 10 natural areas during 2005-2006 for whole-body analysis of 63 elements. The natural areas, which served as reference sites, were assumed to be relatively uninfluenced by contaminants originating from platforms. Forty-two elements were excluded from statistical comparisons for one of three reasons: they consisted of major cations that were unlikely to accumulate to potentially toxic concentrations under ambient exposure conditions; they were not detected by the analytical procedures; or they were detected at concentrations too low to yield reliable quantitative measurements. The remaining 21 elements consisted of aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gallium, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, mercury, nickel, rubidium, selenium, strontium, tin, titanium, vanadium, and zinc. Statistical comparisons of these 21 elements indicated that none consistently exhibited higher concentrations at oil platforms than at natural areas. Eight comparisons yielded significant interaction effects between total length (TL) of the fish and the two habitat types (oil platforms and natural areas). This indicated that relations between certain elemental concentrations (i.e., copper, rubidium, selenium, tin, titanium, and vanadium) and habitat type varied by TL of affected fish species. To better understand these interactions, we examined elemental concentrations in very small and very large individuals of affected species. Although significant interactions were detected for rubidium, tin, and selenium in kelp rockfish, the concentrations of these elements did not differ significantly between oil platforms and natural areas over the TL range of sampled fish. However, for selenium, titanium, and vanadium in Pacific sanddab, small individuals (average TL, 13.0 cm) exhibited significantly lower concentrations at oil platforms than at natural areas, whereas large individuals (average TL, 27.5 cm) exhibited higher concentrations at oil platforms than at natural areas. For copper in Pacific sanddab, small individuals did not exhibit differences between oil platforms and natural areas, whereas large individuals exhibited significantly higher concentrations at oil platforms than at natural areas. On the other hand, for tin in Pacific sanddab, small individuals did not exhibit differences between oil platforms and natural areas, whereas large individuals exhibited significantly lower concentrations at oil platforms than at natural areas. Although concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, and selenium in fishes from some platforms and natural areas equaled or exceeded literature-based toxicity thresholds for fish and fish-eating wildlife, studies are still needed to document evidence of toxicity from these elements. When estimates of elemental concentrations in skinless fillets were compared to risk-based consumption limits for humans, the concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and tin in fish from a mix of oil platforms and natural areas were sufficiently elevated to suggest a need for further study of inorganic arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and tributyltin.

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USGS1999

Cruise report for O1-99-SC Southern California Earthquake Hazards project

The focus of the Southern California Earthquake Hazards project is to identify the landslide and earthquake hazards and related ground-deformation processes occurring in the offshore areas that have significant potential to impact the inhabitants of the Southern California coastal region. The project activity is supported through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the Geologic Division of the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and is a component of the Geologic Division's Science Strategy under Goal 1—Conduct Geologic Hazard Assessments for Mitigation Planning (Bohlen et al., 1998). The project research is specifically stated under Activity 1.1.2 of the Science Strategy: Earthquake Hazard Assessments and Loss Reduction Products in Urban Regions. This activity involves "research, seismic and geodetic monitoring, field studies, geologic mapping, and analyses needed to provide seismic hazard assessments of major urban centers in earthquake-prone regions including adjoining coastal and offshore areas." The southern California urban areas, which form the most populated urban corridor along the U.S. Pacific margin, are among a few specifically designated for special emphasis under the Division's science strategy (Bohlen et al., 1998). The primary objective of the project is to help mitigate the earthquake hazards for the Southern California region by improving our understanding of how deformation is distributed (spatially and temporally) in the offshore with respect to the onshore region. To meet this objective, we are conducting field investigations to observe the distribution, character, and relative intensity of active (i.e., primarily Holocene) deformation within the basins and along the shelf adjacent to the most highly populated areas (Fig. 1). In addition, acoustic imaging should help determine the subsurface dimensions of the faults and identify the size and frequency of submarine landslides, both of which are necessary for evaluating the potential for generating destructive tsunamis in the southern California offshore. In order to evaluate the strain associated with the offshore structures, the initial results from the field mapping under this project will be used to identify possible sites for deployment of acoustic geodetic instruments to monitor strain in the offshore region. A major goal of mapping under this project is to provide detailed geologic and geophysical information in GIS data bases that build on the earlier studies and use the new data to precisely locate active faults and to map recent submarine landslide deposits.

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USGS1989

The Southern California Earthquake Survival Program

In July 1988, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors directed the Chief Administrative Office to develop an educational program aimed at improving earthquake preparedness among Los Angeles County residents. the board recognized that current earthquake education efforts were not only insufficient, but also often confusing and costly. The board unanimously approved the development of a program that would make earthquake preparedness a year-long effort by encouraging residents to take a different precaution each month.

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USGS1983

Strain accumulation in western United States

This review is principally concerned with recent geodetic strain measurements in western United States undertaken by the US Geological Survey as part of the earthquake studies program and, as a consequence, is heavily biased toward the author's own publications. Most of the publications reporting crustal-strain measurements in western United States prior to about 1968 have been compiled in one volume (National Geodetic Survey 1973), and more recent work (with complete bibliographies) is summarized in three successive quadrennial reports to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (Meade 1971, Savage 1975, Thatcher 1979b). The following conventions are employed in this paper: Strain, a dimensionless quantity, is reported in units of 10 6 Extension is taken as positive. To distinguish between engineering and tensor shear strain, we denote the former by γ and quote the units as μr ad, whereas the latter is denoted by e and given the units of μ strain. Uncertainties in all cases are quoted as ± one standard deviation.

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USGS1982

Micronutrients and kelp cultures: Evidence for cobalt and manganese deficiency in Southern California deep seawater

It has been suggested that naturally occurring copper and zinc concentrations in deep seawater are toxic to marine organisms when the free ion forms are overabundant. The effects of micronutrients on the growth of gametophytes of the ecologically and commercially significant giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) were studied in defined media. The results indicate that toxic copper and zinc ion concentrations as well as cobalt and manganese deficiencies may be among the factors controlling the growth of marine organisms in nature.

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USGS1978

Geodimeter measurements and the Southern California uplift

Modern surveying instruments, such as geodimeters, are capable of measuring distances in the range of 1 to 30 kilometers with remarkable precision. Indeed, the present limitation upon the precision of measurement is not the resolution of the instruments themselves but rather the uncertainty introduced by variations in the velocity of light in the atmosphere between the two endpoints of the measured distance. This capability in precise distance measurement can be applied to earthquake studies by using repeated distance measurements to determine changes in the distance between monuments located along the major faults. Such measurements have been made along the San Andreas fault since late 1959, and, as a result, a wealth of data on crustal deformation in that area is now available. In fact, geodimeter measurements of this type furnish a more stable measure of secular strain (change in the ratio of length to length) than any continuously recording strain meter. The superiority of the geodimeter measurement stems principally from the long base line measured which averages over local inhomogeneities (cracks and joints in the rock, inclusions, and so forth). This article describes the important features of the measurement technique as well as some results for the region of the southern California uplift.

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