Erupted volume during the 2014–2023 Semisopochnoi unrest and eruption constrained by multi-platform InSAR and volcanic gas observations
Volcano deformation data provide important constraints on magma dynamics during volcanic unrest and eruptions. From these observations, we can estimate subsurface pressure changes and relate them to volume change in the reservoir. However, because magma and rock are compressible, this volume change cannot be directly equated with eruptive volume. When we combine geodetic analyses with gas observations, petrologic constraints, volatile solubility modeling, and magma compressibility equations, however, we can estimate realistic lower and upper bounds of eruptive volume. Leveraging multi‐platform InSAR time series and satellite SO 2 data, we apply these methods to the 2014–2023 unrest and eruption of Semisopochnoi, Alaska. We find that this phreatomagmatic eruption sequence was fed by a spherical magma source at 6.5–7.5 km depth bsl, centered beneath the caldera, ∼5 km offset to the east from the vent. Volatile solubility modeling indicates that ∼50% of the initial dissolved CO 2 has exsolved at depths consistent with the geodetic source depth, increasing the magma compressibility. Combining geodetic model constraints with SO 2 observations, petrologic constraints, solubility models, and magma compressibility findings yields 12–32 Mm 3 as the most‐likely juvenile, dense‐rock equivalent eruptive volume, with a best estimate of 20 Mm 3 . Stress change modeling suggests that the local stress field encouraged conduit formation west of the pre‐eruptive inflation center, and that the 2014 M7.9 Rat Island earthquake, ∼65 km to the west of Semisopochnoi, reduced the compressive stress underneath the volcano, supporting prolonged eruptive activity.