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Research about San Francisco Bay

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including San Francisco Bay.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large‐scale climate forcing over the North Pacific

Long‐term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large‐scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record‐high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two‐thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

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USGS2010

Anthropogenic influence on recent bathymetric change in west-central San Francisco Bay

Two multibeam sonar surveys of west-central San Francisco Bay, California, were conducted in 1997 and 2008. Bathymetric change analysis between the two surveys indicates a loss of 14.1 million cubic meters (-3.1 cm/yr) of sediment during this time period, representing an approximately three-fold acceleration of the rate that was observed from prior depth change analysis from 1947 to 1979 for all of Central Bay, using more spatially coarse National Ocean Service (NOS) soundings. The portions of the overlapping survey areas between 1997 and 2008 designated as aggregate mining lease sites lost sediment at five times the rate of the remainder of west-central San Francisco Bay. Despite covering only 28% of the analysis area, volume change within leasing areas accounted for 9.2 million cubic meters of sediment loss, while the rest of the area lost 4.9 million cubic meters of sediment. The uncertainty of this recent analysis is more tightly constrained due to more stringent controls on vertical and horizontal position via tightly coupled, inertially aided differential Global Positioning Systems (GPS) solutions for survey vessel trajectory that virtually eliminate inaccuracies from traditional tide modeling and vessel motion artifacts. Further, quantification of systematic depth measurement error can now be calculated through comparison of static surfaces (e.g., bedrock) between surveys using seafloor habitat maps based on acoustic backscatter measurements and ground-truthing with grab samples and underwater video. Sediment loss in the entire San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half-century, as estimated from a series of bathymetric change studies, is 240 million cubic meters, and most of this is believed to be coarse sediment (i.e., sand and gravel) from Central Bay and the San Francisco Bar, which is likely to limit the sand supply to adjacent, open-coast beaches. This hypothesis is supported by a calibrated numerical model in a related study that indicates that there is a potential net export of sand-sized sediment across the Golden Gate, suggesting that a reduction in the supply of sand-sized sediment within west-central San Francisco Bay will limit transport to the outer coast.

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USGS2010

Spring climate and salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary

Salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary almost always experiences its yearly maximum during late summer, but climate variability produces marked interannual variations. The atmospheric circulation pattern impacts the estuary primarily through variations of runoff from rainfall and snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada and, secondarily, through variations in the near-surface salinity in the coastal ocean. While winter precipitation is the primary influence upon salinity in the estuary, spring climate variations also contribute importantly to salinity fluctuations. Spring atmospheric circulation influences both the magnitude and the timing of freshwater flows, through anomalies of precipitation and temperature. To help discriminate between the effects of these two influences, the record is divided into subsets according to whether spring conditions in the region are cool and wet, warm and wet, cool and dry, or warm and dry. Warm springs promote early snowmelt-driven flows, and cool springs result in delayed flows. In addition to effects of winter and spring climate variability operating on the watershed, there are more subtle effects that are transmitted into the estuary from the coastal ocean. These influences are most pronounced in cool and dry springs with high surface salinity (SS) in the coastal ocean versus cool and wet springs with low SS in the coastal ocean. A transect of SS records at stations from the mouth to the head of the bay suggests that the coastal ocean anomaly signal is attenuated from the mouth to the interior of the estuary. In contrast, a delayed, postsummer signal caused by winter and spring runoff variations from the upstream watershed are most pronounced at the head of the estuary and attenuate toward the mouth.

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USGS2010

Accuracy of an estuarine hydrodynamic model using smooth elements

A finite element model which uses triangular, isoparametric elements with quadratic basis functions for the two velocity components and linear basis functions for water surface elevation is used in the computation of shallow water wave motions. Specifically addressed are two common uncertainties in this class of two-dimensional hydrodynamic models: the treatment of the boundary conditions at open boundaries and the treatment of lateral boundary conditions. The accuracy of the models is tested with a set of numerical experiments in rectangular and curvilinear channels with constant and variable depth. The results indicate that errors in velocity at the open boundary can be significant when boundary conditions for water surface elevation are specified. Methods are suggested for minimizing these errors. The results also show that continuity is better maintained within the spatial domain of interest when ‘smooth’ curve-sided elements are used at shoreline boundaries than when piecewise linear boundaries are used. Finally, a method for network development is described which is based upon a continuity criterion to gauge accuracy. A finite element network for San Francisco Bay, California, is used as an example.

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USGS2010

On Lagrangian residual currents with applications in south San Francisco Bay, California

The Lagrangian residual circulation has often been introduced as the sum of the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift. Unfortunately, this definition of the Lagrangian residual circulation is conceptually incorrect because both the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift are Eulerian variables. In this paper a classification of various residual variables are reviewed and properly defined. The Lagrangian residual circulation is then studied by means of a two-stage formulation of a computer model. The tidal circulation is first computed in a conventional Eulerian way, and then the Lagrangian residual circulation is determined by a method patterned after the method of markers and cells. To demonstrate properties of the Lagrangian residual circulation, application of this approach in South San Francisco Bay, California, is considered. With the aid of the model results, properties of the Eulerian and Lagrangian residual circulation are examined. It can be concluded that estimation of the Lagrangian residual circulation from Eulerian data may lead to unacceptable error, particularly in a tidal estuary where the tidal excursion is of the same order of magnitude as the length scale of the basin. A direction calculation of the Lagrangian residual circulation must be made and has been shown to be feasible.

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USGS2010

On tide-induced Lagrangian residual current and residual transport: 2. Residual transport with application in south San Francisco Bay, California

The transports of solutes and other tracers are fundamental to estuarine processes. The apparent transport mechanisms are convection by tidal current and current-induced shear effect dispersion for processes which take place in a time period of the order of a tidal cycle. However, as emphasis is shifted toward the effects of intertidal processes, the net transport is mainly determined by tide-induced residual circulation and by residual circulation due to other processes. The commonly used intertidal conservation equation takes the form of a convection-dispersion equation in which the convective velocity is the Eulerian residual current, and the dispersion terms are often referred to as the phase effect dispersion or, sometimes, as the “tidal dispersion.” The presence of these dispersion terms is merely the result of a Fickian type hypothesis. Since the actual processes are not Fickian, thus a Fickian hypothesis obscures the physical significance of this equation. Recent research results on residual circulation have suggested that long-term transport phenomena are closely related to the Lagrangian residual current or the Lagrangian residual transport. In this paper a new formulation of an intertidal conservation equation is presented and examined in detail. In a weakly nonlinear tidal estuary the resultant intertidal transport equation also takes the form of a convection-dispersion equation without the ad hoc introduction of phase effect dispersion in a form of dispersion tensor. The convective velocity in the resultant equation is the first-order Lagrangian residual current (the sum of the Eulerian residual current and the Stokes drift). The remaining dispersion terms are important only in higher-order solutions; they are due to shear effect dispersion and turbulent mixing. There exists a dispersion boundary layer adjacent to shoreline boundaries. An order of magnitude estimate of the properties in the dispersion boundary layer is given. The present treatment of intertidal transport processes is illustrated by an analytical solution for an amphidromic system and by a numerical application in South San Francisco Bay, California. The present formulation reveals that the mechanism for long-term transport of solutes is mainly convection due to the Lagrangian residual current in the interior of a tidal estuary. This result also points out the weakness in the tidal dispersion formulation, and explains the large variability of the observed values for tidal dispersion coefficients. Further research on properties of the dispersion boundary layer is needed.

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USGS2010

Predicting the vertical structure of tidal current and salinity in San Francisco Bay, California

A two-dimensional laterally averaged numerical estuarine model is developed to study the vertical variations of tidal hydrodynamic properties in the central/north part of San Francisco Bay, California. Tidal stage data, current meter measurements, and conductivity, temperature, and depth profiling data in San Francisco Bay are used for comparison with model predictions. An extensive review of the literature is conducted to assess the success and failure of previous similar investigations and to establish a strategy for development of the present model. A σ plane transformation is used in the vertical dimension to alleviate problems associated with fixed grid model applications in the bay, where the tidal range can be as much as 20–25% of the total water depth. Model predictions of tidal stage and velocity compare favorably with the available field data, and prototype salinity stratification is qualitatively reproduced. Conclusions from this study as well as future model applications and research needs are discussed.

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USGS2010

Geophysical framework of the northern San Francisco Bay region, California

We use geophysical data to examine the structural framework of the northern San Francisco Bay region, an area that hosts the northward continuation of the East Bay fault system. Although this fault system has accommodated ∼175 km of right-lateral offset since 12 Ma, how this offset is partitioned north of the bay is controversial and important for understanding where and how strain is accommodated along this stretch of the broader San Andreas transform margin. Using gravity and magnetic data, we map these faults, many of which influenced basin formation and volcanism. Continuity of magnetic anomalies in certain areas, such as Napa and Sonoma Valleys, the region north of Napa Valley, and the region south of the Santa Rosa Plain, preclude significant (>10 km) offset. Much of the slip is partitioned around Sonoma and Napa Valleys and onto the Carneros, Rodgers Creek, and Green Valley faults. The absence of correlative magnetic anomalies across the Hayward–Rodgers Creek–Maacama fault system suggests that this system reactivated older basement structures, which appear to influence seismicity patterns in the region.

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USGS2010

Biogeochemical processes in an urban, restored wetland of San Francisco Bay, California, 2007-2009: Methods and data for plant, sediment and water parameters

The restoration of 18 acres of historic tidal marsh at Crissy Field has had great success in terms of public outreach and visibility, but less success in terms of revegetated marsh sustainability. Native cordgrass (Spartina foliosa) has experienced dieback and has failed to recolonize following extended flooding events during unintended periodic closures of its inlet channel, which inhibits daily tidal flushing. We examined the biogeochemical impacts of these impoundment events on plant physiology and on sulfur and mercury chemistry to help the National Park Service land managers determine the relative influence of these inlet closures on marsh function. In this comparative study, we examined key pools of sulfur, mercury, and carbon compounds both during and between closure events. Further, we estimated the net hydrodynamic flux of methylmercury and total mercury to and from the marsh during a 24-hour diurnal cycle. This report documents the methods used and the data generated during the study.

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USGS2009

Organochlorine and PBDE concentrations in relation to cytochrome P450 activity in livers of Forster’s Terns ( Sterna forsteri ) and Caspian Terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ), in San Francisco Bay, California

We measured halogenated organic contaminants (HOCs) [polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT)] and P450 [e.g., ethoxyresorufin- O -dealkylase (EROD)] stress in livers from Caspian tern ( Hydroprogne caspia ) adults and Forster’s tern ( Sterna forsteri ) adults and chicks in San Francisco Bay (SFB). Penta BDEs and tetra PBDEs composed 46–66% of ∑PBDE in terns. PCB homologues di, tri, penta, hexa, and hepta composed 93–95% of ∑PCBs and p ′ p -DDE composed 82–98% of all ∑DDTs. We found similar concentrations of ∑PBDEs [mean micrograms per gram wet weight (ww) ± standard error = 0.4 ± 0.1], ∑PCBs (5.9 ± 1.6), and ∑DDTs (0.6 ± 0.1) among species, sexes, and regions. However, concentrations were higher in Forster’s tern adults than chicks (∑PBDEs = 0.4 ± 0.1 and 0.1 ± 0.1; ∑PCBs = 7.08 ± 2.4 and 2.4 ± 1.4; ∑DDTs = 0.5 ± 0.1 and 0.1 ± 0.1; respectively), and there was a nonsignificant trend of elevated ∑PBDEs and ∑PCBs for adult Forster’s terns in the Central South Bay and Lower South Bay portions of SFB. Combined Forster’s tern and Caspian tern ∑DDTs bioaccumulated similarly to selenium, but not mercury, and there was a nonsignificant but positive trend for ∑PBDEs and ∑PCBs bioaccumulation with mercury. P450 protein activity was higher in adult Forster’s terns than Caspian terns, higher in Central South Bay than in Lower South Bay, and higher in adult Forster’s terns than in chicks.

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USGS2009

Home range, habitat selection, and movements of California Black Rails at tidal marshes at San Francisco Bay, California

Little is known about the movements and habitat selection of California Black Rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus ) in coastal California. We captured 130 Black Rails, of which we radio-marked 48, in tidal marshes in San Francisco Bay during 2005 and 2006. Our objective was to examine their home ranges, movements, and habitat selection to improve the species' conservation. The mean fixed-kernel home range was 0.59 ha, the mean core area was 0.14 ha. Home ranges and core areas did not differ by year or site. Males had significantly larger home ranges and core areas than did females. All sites combined, Black Rails used areas with ≥94% total vegetative cover, with perennial pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica ) the dominant plant. The rails' habitat selection varied by year and site but not by sex. A multivariate analysis of variance indicated that Black Rails selected areas with pickleweed taller and denser than average, greater cover and height of alkali bulrush ( Bolboschoenus maritimus ) and common saltgrass ( Distichlis spicata ), more stems between 20 and 30 cm above the ground, maximum vegetation height, and shorter distance to refugia. On average, Black Rails moved 27.6 ±1.8 (SE) m daily and 38.4 ± 5.5 m during extreme high tides. Understanding the California Black Rail's movements, home range, and habitat use is critical for management to benefit the species.

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USGS2009

Data from theodolite measurements of creep rates on San Francisco Bay region faults, California

Introduction Our purpose is to annually update our creep-data archive on San Francisco Bay region active faults for use by the scientific research community. Earlier data (1979-2001) were reported in Galehouse (2002) and were analyzed and described in detail in a summary report (Galehouse and Lienkaemper, 2003). A complete analysis of our earlier results obtained on the Hayward Fault was presented in Lienkaemper, Galehouse and Simpson (2001) and updated in Lienkaemper and others (2012). Lienkaemper and others (2014) provide a new overview and analysis of fault creep along all sections of the northern San Andreas Fault system, from which they estimate by how much fault creep reduces the seismic hazard for each fault section. From 1979 until his retirement from the project in 2001, Jon Galehouse of San Francisco State University (SFSU) and many student research assistants measured creep (aseismic slip) rates on these faults. The creep measurement project, which was initiated by Galehouse, continued through the Geosciences Department at SFSU from 2001-2006 under the direction of Karen Grove and John Caskey (Grove and Caskey, 2005) and since 2006 under Caskey (2007). Forrest McFarland has managed most of the technical and logistical project operations, as well as data processing and compilation since 2001. Data from 2001-2007 are found in McFarland and others (2007). From 2009 onward, we have released the raw data annually using this report (OF2009-1119) as a permanent publication link, while publishing more detailed analyses of these data in the scientific literature, such as Lienkaemper and others (2014). We maintain a project Web site (http://funnel.sfsu.edu/creep/) that includes the following information: project description, project personnel, creep characteristics and measurement, map of creep-measurement sites, creep-measurement site information, and links to data plots for each measurement site. Our most current, annually updated results are, therefore, accessible to the scientific community and to the general public. Information about the project can currently be requested by the public by an email link ( fltcreep@sfsu.edu) found on our project Web site.

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USGS2009

Benthic oxygen demand in three former salt ponds adjacent to south San Francisco Bay, California

Sampling trips were coordinated in the second half of 2008 to examine the interstitial water in the sediment and the overlying bottom waters of three shallow (average depth <1 meter) ponds adjacent to the southern reach of San Francisco Bay (herein referred to as South Bay), which were previously used in commercial salt production. In recent years, the ponds were modified for wetland restoration and management as part of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project. A pore-water profiler, modified for dissolved-oxygen sampling, was used to obtain the first centimeter-scale estimates of the vertical concentration gradients for diffusive-flux determinations. This study, a collaboration between scientists from two disciplines within the U.S. Geological Survey (Water Resources and Biological Resources), provides information necessary for developing and refining pond-management strategies and supports efforts to monitor changes in fish and wildlife assemblages associated with the habitat-restoration program. Between August 27 and September 30, 2008, pore-water profilers were successfully deployed in the South Bay salt ponds A16, A14, and A3W (fig. 1; fig. 2; table1), measuring the concentration gradient of dissolved oxygen near the sediment-water interface. In each pond, profilers were deployed in triplicate at two sites: a shallow site (< 1 meter) and a deep site (> 2 meters). The water column at all deployment sites was monitored with dataloggers for ancillary water-quality parameters (including dissolved oxygen, salinity, specific conductance, temperature, and pH) to facilitate the interpretation of benthic-flux results. Calculated diffusive benthic flux of dissolved (0.2-micron filtered) oxygen was consistently negative (that is, drawn from the water column into the sediment) and ranged between -0.5 x 10-6 and -37 x 10-6 micromoles per square centimeter per second (site averages depicted in table 2). Assuming pond areas of 1.0, 1.4, and 2.3 square kilometers for ponds A16, A14, and A3W, respectively, this converts to an oxygen mass flux into the ponds' sediment ranging from -1 to -72 kilograms per day. Diffusive oxygen flux into the benthos (listed as negative) was lowest in pond A14 (-0.5 x 10-6 to -1.8 x 10-6 micromoles per square centimeter per second) compared with diffusive flux estimates for ponds A16 and A3W (site averages -26 x 10-6 to -35 x 10-6 and -34 x 10-6 to -37 x 10-6 micromoles per square centimeter per second, respectively). These initial diffusive-flux estimates are of the order of magnitude of those measured in the South Bay using core-incubation experiments (Topping and others, 2004), which include bioturbation and bioirrigation effects. Estimates of benthic oxygen demand reported herein, based on molecular diffusion, serve as conservative estimates of benthic flux because solute transport across the sediment-water interface can be enhanced by multidisciplinary processes including bioturbation, bioirrigation, ground-water advection, and wind resuspension (Kuwabara and others, 2009).

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USGS2008

Primary production and carrying capacity of former salt ponds after reconnection to San Francisco Bay

Over 6,110 ha of the commercial production salt ponds surrounding South San Francisco Bay, CA, have been decommissioned and reconnected to the bay, most as part of the largest wetlands restoration program in the western United States. These open water ponds are critical habitat for millions of birds annually and restoration program managers must determine the appropriate balance between retention of ponds versus re-conversion to tidal salt marsh, knowing that both are essential ecosystems for endangered bird species. Our study describes the ecological value of the new open water pond ecosystems as feeding habitats for birds. We used the oxygen rate of change method to determine ecosystem metabolic parameters from high resolution time-series of dissolved oxygen concentration. Areal gross primary production (8.17 g O 2 m −2 d −1 ) was roughly double the world’s most productive estuaries. High rates of phytoplankton photosynthesis were balanced by equally high rates of community respiration (8.25 g O 2 m −2 d −1 ). Metabolic equilibrium was delicately poised: sharp irradiance and temperature shifts triggered short term photosynthesis reduction resulting in oxygen depletion. We converted net primary production (NPP) into potential carrying capacity of the forage biota that support targeted pond waterbirds. NPP was processed through both a pelagic food web, resulting in forage biota for piscivorous birds and a benthic food web, resulting in forage biota for shorebirds and diving benthivores. Both food webs included efficient algal-based and inefficient detrital trophic pathways. The result of all primary production being routed through simple food webs was high potential forage production and energy supply to waterbirds, equivalent to 11–163 million planktivorous fish or 19–78 billion small estuarine clams within the 330-ha pond between May and October. Food quantity does not necessarily equal quality and these systems have the potential to produce toxic or inedible algae. Our study provides the first measurement of primary production in the open water ponds of San Francisco Bay and presents a novel approach for transforming primary production into forage production as a metric of an ecosystem’s energetic carrying capacity.

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USGS2008

Sediment deposition, erosion, and bathymetric change in central San Francisco Bay: 1855-1979

Central San Francisco Bay is the hub of a dynamic estuarine system connecting the San Joaquin and Sacramento River Deltas, Suisun Bay, and San Pablo Bay to the Pacific Ocean and South San Francisco Bay. To understand the role that Central San Francisco Bay plays in sediment transport throughout the system, it is necessary to first determine historical changes in patterns of sediment deposition and erosion from both natural and anthropogenic forces. The first extensive hydrographic survey of Central San Francisco Bay was conducted in 1853 by the National Ocean Service (NOS) (formerly the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS)). From 1894 to 1979, four additional surveys, composed of a total of approximately 700,000 bathymetric soundings, were collected within Central San Francisco Bay. Converting these soundings into accurate bathymetric models involved many steps. The soundings were either hand digitized directly from the original USCGS and NOS hydrographic sheets (H-sheets) or obtained digitally from the National Geophysical Data Center's (NGDC) Geophysical Data System (GEODAS) (National Geophysical Data Center, 1996). Soundings were supplemented with contours that were either taken directly from the H-sheets or added in by hand. Shorelines and marsh areas were obtained from topographic sheets. The digitized soundings, depth contours, shorelines, and marsh areas were entered into a geographic information system (GIS) and georeferenced to a common horizontal datum. Using surface modeling software, bathymetric grids with a horizontal resolution of 25 m were developed for each of the five hydrographic surveys. Before analyses of sediment deposition and erosion were conducted, interpolation bias was removed and all of the grids were converted to a common vertical datum. These bathymetric grids were then used to develop bathymetric change maps for subsequent survey periods and to determine long-term changes in deposition and erosion by calculating volumes and rates of net sediment change. Central San Francisco Bay experienced periods of both deposition and erosion, but overall experienced a net gain in sediment from 1855 to 1979 of approximately 42x10 6 m 3 (0.33x10 6 m 3 / yr). Over this same time period, 92 percent of the tidal marsh and 69 percent of the intertidal mudflats were lost as human activity increased and the shorefront was developed. During the first time period, from 1855 to 1895, Central San Francisco Bay was erosional, losing roughly 2x10 6 m 3 / yr of sediment. The next time period was depositional, with a net gain of approximately 3x10 6 m 3 / yr of sediment from 1895 to 1947. The last time period, from 1947 to 1979, was erosional again, losing roughly 2x10 6 m 3 / yr of sediment. Sedimentation patterns also varied spatially. The northern part of Central San Francisco Bay was depositional during all change periods while the eastern region alternated between erosional and depositional. Central San Francisco Bay sedimentation patterns have also been strongly impacted by anthropogenic activities, such as dredging and dredge disposal, borrow pits, and sand mining. For example, bathymetric change at a borrow pit created near Bay Farm Island sometime between the 1947 and 1979 surveys indicates roughly 25x10 6 m 3 of sediment was removed from the system

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USGS2008

Landslide risk in the San Francisco Bay region

We have used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms, and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES), to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region. The estimated annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $15 million (year 2000 $). The estimated annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.32 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). Normalizing costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal or greater than about 10&deg; indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,400), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($230). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared to landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

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USGS2008

Mercury bioaccumulation and effects on birds in San Francisco Bay

Highlights San Francisco Bay is an important wintering and breeding ground for more than 1 million waterbirds annually Mercury concentrations are highest in birds that eat fish and that reside in the Lower South Bay When Forster&rsquo;s terns arrive in the Bay in spring to breed, mercury concentrations in their blood increase by four-fold in a six week period Based on mercury concentrations in blood, nearly 60% of all breeding Forster&rsquo;s terns sampled in the Bay are at high risk of toxic effects One important piece of evidence of impairment of reproduction in Forster&rsquo;s terns is that average mercury concentrations in failed to-hatch eggs were statistically significantly higher than in randomly selected eggs Avian eggs represent an ideal matrix for assessing bioaccumulation because they are indicative of short-term, localized exposure and are central to predicting risk in multiple lifestages

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