Geology topics

Research about San Francisco Bay

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including San Francisco Bay.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Sand sources and transport pathways for the San Francisco Bay coastal system, based on X-ray diffraction mineralogy

The mineralogical compositions of 119 samples collected from throughout the San Francisco Bay coastal system, including bayfloor and seafloor, area beaches, cliff outcrops, and major drainages, were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Comparison of the mineral concentrations and application of statistical cluster analysis of XRD spectra allowed for the determination of provenances and transport pathways. The use of XRD mineral identifications provides semi-quantitative compositions needed for comparisons of beach and offshore sands with potential cliff and river sources, but the innovative cluster analysis of XRD diffraction spectra provides a unique visualization of how groups of samples within the San Francisco Bay coastal system are related so that sand-sized sediment transport pathways can be inferred. The main vector for sediment transport as defined by the XRD analysis is from San Francisco Bay to the outer coast, where the sand then accumulates on the ebb tidal delta and also moves alongshore. This mineralogical link defines a critical pathway because large volumes of sediment have been removed from the Bay over the last century via channel dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining, with comparable volumes of erosion from the ebb tidal delta over the same period, in addition to high rates of shoreline retreat along the adjacent, open-coast beaches. Therefore, while previously only a temporal relationship was established, the transport pathway defined by mineralogical and geochemical tracers support the link between anthropogenic activities in the Bay and widespread erosion outside the Bay. The XRD results also establish the regional and local importance of sediment derived from cliff erosion, as well as both proximal and distal fluvial sources. This research is an important contribution to a broader provenance study aimed at identifying the driving forces for widespread geomorphic change in a heavily urbanized coastal-estuarine system.

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USGS2013

Sub-tidal benthic habitats of central San Francisco Bay and offshore Golden Gate area: A review

Deep-water potential estuarine and marine benthic habitat types were defined from a variety of new and interpreted data sets in central San Francisco Bay and offshore Golden Gate area including multibeam echosounder (MBES), side-scan sonar and bottom grab samples. Potential estuarine benthic habitats identiﬁed for the ﬁrst time range from hard bedrock outcrops on island and mainland ﬂanks and some Bay ﬂoor regions, to soft, very dynamic bedforms consisting of sediment waves and ripples. Soft sediment ranges from mud and sand to bimodal (two or more grain sizes) sediment of gravel, pebbles, and cobbles. In addition, considerable anthropogenic features (i.e., pipelines, bridge abutments, dredged channels, dump sites) were distinguished. Of the 52 potential benthic habitat types mapped (compressed to 14 types for this paper), 24 were of un-consolidated sediment with five of these comprised of dynamic bedforms or sediment waves and dunes, five of mixed (soft over hard) substrate type, six of hard substrate or rock outcrop, 13 of anthropogenically disturbed areas and four hard anthropogenic features. Rock outcrops and rubble are considered the primary habitat type for rockfish ( Sebastes spp. ), lingcod ( Ophiodon elongatus ) and in shallow water for herring ( Clupea pallasii ) spawning. Dynamic bedforms such as sand waves are considered potential foraging habitat for juvenile lingcod, may be sub-tidal habitat for the Paciﬁc sand lance ( Ammodytes hexapterus ) forage ﬁsh, and possibly resting habitat for migratory ﬁshes such as sturgeon ( Acipenser medirostris ). The potential marine benthic habitats identiﬁed in San Francisco Bay are not unlike those found in other estuaries around the world and this study should contribute signiﬁcant information that will be of interest to scientists, managers and ﬁshers investigating and utilizing bay and estuarine resources. As described in the many papers of this special issue, the understanding of the interrelationship of geology and ecology is critical to the identiﬁcation of essential habitats and the sustainability of a healthy ecosystem.

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USGS2013

A sediment budget for the southern reach in San Francisco Bay, CA: Implications for habitat restoration

The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project is overseeing the restoration of about 6000 ha of former commercial salt-evaporation ponds to tidal marsh and managed wetlands in the southern reach of San Francisco Bay (SFB). As a result of regional groundwater overdrafts prior to the 1970s, parts of the project area have subsided below sea-level and will require between 29 and 45 million m 3 of sediment to raise the surface of the subsided areas to elevations appropriate for tidal marsh colonization and development. Therefore, a sufficient sediment supply to the far south SFB subembayment is a critical variable for achieving restoration goals. Although both major tributaries to far south SFB have been seasonally gaged for sediment since 2004, the sediment flux at the Dumbarton Narrows, the bayward boundary of far south SFB, has not been quantified until recently. Using daily suspended-sediment flux data from the gages on Guadalupe River and Coyote Creek, combined with continuous suspended-sediment flux data at Dumbarton Narrows, we computed a sediment budget for far south SFB during Water Years 2009–2011. A Monte Carlo approach was used to quantify the uncertainty of the flux estimates. The sediment flux past Dumbarton Narrows from the north dominates the input to the subembayment. However, environmental conditions in the spring can dramatically influence the direction of springtime flux, which appears to be a dominant influence on the net annual flux. It is estimated that up to several millennia may be required for natural tributary sediments to fill the accommodation space of the subsided former salt ponds, whereas supply from the rest of the bay could fill the space in several centuries. Uncertainty in the measurement of sediment flux is large, in part because small suspended-sediment concentration differences between flood and ebb tides can lead to large differences in total mass exchange. Using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the random error associated with this uncertainty provides a more statistically rigorous method of quantifying this uncertainty than the more typical “sum of errors” approach. The results of this study reinforce the need for measurement of estuarine sediment fluxes over multiple years (multiple hydrologic conditions) to adequately detail the variability in flux. Additionally, the timing of breaching events for the restoration project could be tied to annual hydrologic conditions to capitalize on increased regional sediment supply.

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USGS2013

Influence of history and environment on the sediment dynamics of intertidal flats

Morphological trends of three distinct intertidal environments in South San Francisco Bay were investigated using a combination of measurement and modeling tools. Because of the inherent relationship between the physical environment and the sediment properties, the sediment properties provide a good indicator of morphologic trends. A significant finding of this study is that surface sediment erodibility increases as the energy level in the environment increases. Conversely subsurface sediment erodibility shows a strong relationship to the long-term history of the site. The combination of the measured sediment properties, the history of deposition and erosion, and simple modeling of the physical environment illustrate the interaction of these properties such that an understanding of intertidal flat behavior is developed.

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USGS2013

The use of modeling and suspended sediment concentration measurements for quantifying net suspended sediment transport through a large tidally dominated inlet

Sediment exchange at large energetic inlets is often difficult to quantify due complex flows, massive amounts of water and sediment exchange, and environmental conditions limiting long-term data collection. In an effort to better quantify such exchange this study investigated the use of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) measured at an offsite location as a surrogate for sediment exchange at the tidally dominated Golden Gate inlet in San Francisco, CA. A numerical model was calibrated and validated against water and suspended sediment flux measured during a spring–neap tide cycle across the Golden Gate. The model was then run for five months and net exchange was calculated on a tidal time-scale and compared to SSC measurements at the Alcatraz monitoring site located in Central San Francisco Bay ~ 5 km from the Golden Gate. Numerically modeled tide averaged flux across the Golden Gate compared well (r 2 = 0.86, p-value < 0.05) with 25 h low-pass filtered (tide averaged) SSCs measured at Alcatraz over the five month simulation period (January through April 2008). This formed a basis for the development of a simple equation relating the advective flux at Alcatraz with suspended sediment flux across the Golden Gate. Utilization of the equation with all available Alcatraz SSC data resulted in an average export rate of 1.2 Mt/yr during water years 2004 through 2010. While the rate is comparable to estimated suspended sediment inflow rates from sources within the Bay over the same time period (McKee et al., 2013-this issue), there was little variation from year to year. Exports were computed to be greatest during the wettest water year analyzed but only marginally so.

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USGS2013

Factors controlling floc settling velocity along a longitudinal estuarine transect

A 147 km longitudinal transect of flocculated cohesive sediment properties in San Francisco Bay (SFB) was conducted on June 17th, 2008. Our aim was to determine the factors that control floc settling velocity along the longitudinal axis of the estuary. The INSSEV-LF video system was used to measure floc diameters and settling velocities at 30 stations at a distance of 0.7 m above the estuary bed. Floc sizes (D) ranged from 22 μm to 639 μm and settling velocities (Ws) ranged between 0.04 mm·s − 1 and 15.8 mm·s − 1 during the longitudinal transect. Nearbed turbulent shear stresses throughout the transect duration were within the 0.2–0.5 Pa range which typically stimulates flocculation growth. The individual D–Ws–floc density plots suggest the suspended sediments encountered throughout SFB were composed of both muddy cohesive sediment and mixed sediments flocs. Mass-weighted population mean settling velocity (Ws mass ) ranged from 0.5 mm·s − 1 to 10 mm·s − 1 . The macrofloc and microfloc (demarcation at 160 μm) sub-populations demonstrated parameterised settling velocities which spanned nearly double the range of the sample mean settling velocities (Ws mean ). The macroflocs tended to dominate the suspended mass (up to 77% of the ambient suspended solid concentration; SSC) from San Pablo Bay to Carquinez Strait (the vicinity of the turbidity maximum zone). Microfloc mass was particularly significant (typically 60–100% of the SSC) in the northern section of South Bay and most of Central Bay. The transect took eleven hours to complete and was not fully synoptic. During slack tide, larger and faster settling flocs deposited, accounting for most of the longitudinal variability. The best single predictor of settling velocity was water velocity 39 min prior to sampling, not suspended-sediment concentration or salinity. Resuspension and settling lags are likely responsible for the lagged response of settling velocity to water velocity. The distribution of individual floc diameters and settling velocities indicates that floc density for a given floc diameter varies greatly. A small portion (a few percent) of suspended sediment mass in SFB is sand-sized and inclusion of sand in flocs appears likely. Fractal theory for cohesive sediment assumes that there is a single primary particle size that flocculates, which is not the case for these types of mixed sediment flocs. The wide variability in the physical, biological and chemical processes which contribute to flocculation within SFB means that spatial floc data is required in order to accurately represent the diverse floc dynamics present in the Bay system. The importance in determining accurate estimates of floc density has been highlighted by the SFB data, as these provide the basis for realistic distributions of floc dry mass and the mass settling flux across a floc population. However, although video floc sampling devices can produce the various floc property trends observed in SFB, good survey practice is still paramount. One can see that if the sampling coverage (i.e. data collection frequency) is poor, this could lead to potential mis-interpretations of the data and only limited conclusions may be drawn from such a restricted survey. For example, a limited survey (i.e. only 3 stations, compared to the 10 stations in the full survey) in South Bay produces an under-estimate in both the macrofloc SSC macro distribution by a factor of four and the Ws macro by a factor of two. To develop sediment transport numerical models for SFB, high quality floc size and settling data are needed to understand and simulate the depositional qualities of both suspended cohesive sediment and mixed sediments in San Francisco Bay. This study has shown that the most pragmatic solution is a physically-based approach, whereby the detailed flocs D vs. Ws spectra are parameterised in terms of their macrofloc and microfloc properties. This aids in model calibration, whilst retaining more of the dynamical aspects of the floc populations. All forms of flocculation are dynamically active processes, therefore it is important to also include both SSC and turbulence functions together with the floc data.

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USGS2013

Changes in surfzone morphodynamics driven by multi-decadal contraction of a large ebb-tidal delta

The impact of multi-decadal, large-scale deflation (76 million m 3 of sediment loss) and contraction (~ 1 km) of a 150 km 2 ebb-tidal delta on hydrodynamics and sediment transport at adjacent Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA), is examined using a coupled wave and circulation model. The model is forced with representative wave and tidal conditions using recent (2005) and historic (1956) ebb-tidal delta bathymetry data sets. Comparison of the simulations indicates that along north/south trending Ocean Beach the contraction and deflation of the ebb-tidal delta have resulted in significant differences in the flow and sediment dynamics. Between 1956 and 2005 the transverse bar (the shallow attachment point of the ebb-tidal delta to the shoreline) migrated northward ~ 1 km toward the inlet while a persistent alongshore flow and transport divergence point migrated south by ~ 500 m such that these features now overlap. A reduction in tidal prism and sediment supply over the last century has resulted in a net decrease in offshore tidal current-generated sediment transport at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, and a relative increase in onshore-directed wave-driven transport toward the inlet, accounting for the observed contraction of the ebb-tidal delta. Alongshore migration of the transverse bar and alongshore flow divergence have resulted in an increasing proportion of onshore migrating sediment from the ebb-tidal delta to be transported north along the beach in 2005 versus south in 1956. The northerly migrating sediment is then trapped by Pt. Lobos, a rocky headland at the northern extreme of the beach, consistent with the observed shoreline accretion in this area. Conversely, alongshore migration of the transverse bar and divergence point has decreased the sediment supply to southern Ocean Beach, consistent with the observed erosion of the shoreline in this area. This study illustrates the utility of applying a high-resolution coupled circulation-wave model for understanding coastal response to large-scale bathymetric changes over multi-decadal timescales, common to many coastal systems adjacent to urbanized estuaries and watersheds worldwide.

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USGS2013

Post-release survival of surf scoters following an oil spill: an experimental approach to evaluating rehabilitation success

Birds are often the most numerous vertebrates damaged and rehabilitated in marine oil spills; however, the efficacy of avian rehabilitation is frequently debated and rarely examined experimentally. We compared survival of three radio-marked treatment groups, oiled, rehabilitated (ORHB), un-oiled, rehabilitated (RHB), and un-oiled, non-rehabilitated (CON), in an experimental approach to examine post-release survival of surf scoters ( Melanitta perspicillata ) following the 2007 M/V Cosco Busan spill in San Francisco Bay. Live encounter-dead recovery modeling indicated that survival differed among treatment groups and over time since release. The survival estimate (±SE) for ORHB was 0.143 ± 0.107 compared to CON (0.498 ± 0.168) and RHB groups (0.772 ± 0.229), suggesting scoters tolerated the rehabilitation process itself well, but oiling resulted in markedly lower survival. Future efforts to understand the physiological effects of oil type and severity on scoters are needed to improve post-release survival of this species.

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USGS2013

Groundwater quality in the San Francisco Bay groundwater basins, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Selected groundwater basins of the San Francisco Bay area constitute one of the study units being evaluated.

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USGS2013

Sediment geochemistry of Corte Madera Marsh, San Francisco Bay, California: have local inputs changed, 1830-2010?

Large perturbations since the mid-1800s to the supply and source of sediment entering San Francisco Bay have disturbed natural processes for more than 150 years. Only recently have sediment inputs through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) decreased to what might be considered pre-disturbance levels. Declining sediment inputs to San Francisco Bay raise concern about continued tidal marsh accretion, particularly if sea level rise accelerates in the future. The aim of this study is to explore whether the relative amount of local-watershed sediment accumulating in a tidal marsh has changed as sediment supply from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers has decreased. To address this question, sediment geochemical indicators, or signatures, in the fine fraction (silt and clay) of Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, San Francisco Bay, and Corte Madera Creek sediment were identified and applied in sediment recovered from Corte Madera Marsh, one of the few remaining natural marshes in San Francisco Bay. Total major, minor, trace, and rare earth element (REE) contents of fine sediment were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass and atomic emission spectroscopy. Fine sediment from potential source areas had the following geochemical signatures: Sacramento River sediment downstream of the confluence of the American River was characterized by enrichments in chromium, zirconium, and heavy REE; San Joaquin River sediment at Vernalis and Lathrop was characterized by enrichments in thorium and total REE content; Corte Madera Creek sediment had elevated nickel contents; and the composition of San Francisco Bay mud proximal to Corte Madera Marsh was intermediate between these sources. Most sediment geochemical signatures were relatively invariant for more than 150 years, suggesting that the composition of fine sediment in Corte Madera Marsh is not very sensitive to changes in the magnitude, timing, or source of sediment entering San Francisco Bay through the Delta. Nor does there appear to be a ubiquitous increase in the proportion of fine sediment from Corte Madera watershed accumulating in the marsh during the last 20 years when sediment inflows through the Delta have decreased to pre-disturbance levels. We conclude that a large, well-mixed reservoir, such as the transportable fine sediment pool in San Francisco Bay, is the primary source of sediment to Corte Madera Marsh, and this source buffers the marsh against changes in sediment supply from the Delta and local watersheds. This study also found that Corte Madera Marsh sediment between about 10-30 centimeters depth is highly contaminated with lead, likely a legacy of lead smelter operations near Carquinez Strait and leaded gasoline use.

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USGS2013

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21 st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

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USGS2013

Near-field receiving water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California, 2012

Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Macoma petalum (formerly reported as Macoma balthica), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in South San Francisco Bay, Calif. This report includes the data collected by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists for the period January to December 2012. These data serve as the basis for the City of Palo Alto’s Near-Field Receiving Water Monitoring Program, initiated in 1994. Following significant reductions in the late 1980s, silver (Ag) and copper (Cu) concentrations in sediment and in M. petalum appear to have stabilized. Data for other metals, including chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), and zinc (Zn), have been collected since 1994. Over this period, concentrations of these elements have remained relatively constant, aside from seasonal variation that is common to all elements. In 2012, concentrations of Ag and Cu in M. petalum varied seasonally in response to a combination of site-specific metal exposures and annual growth and reproduction, as reported for previous time periods. Seasonal patterns for other elements, including Cr, Ni, Zn, Hg, and Se were generally similar in timing and magnitude as those for Ag and Cu. In 2012, metal concentrations in both sediments and clam tissue were among the lowest concentrations on record. This record suggests that regional-scale factors now largely control sedimentary and bioavailable concentrations of Ag and Cu, as well as other elements of regulatory interest, at the Palo Alto site. Analyses of the benthic community structure of a mudflat in South San Francisco Bay over a 39-year period show that changes in the community have occurred concurrent with reduced concentrations of metals in the sediment and in the tissues of the biosentinel clam, M. petalum, from the same area. Analysis of the M. petalum community shows increases in reproductive activity concurrent with the decline in metal concentrations in the tissues of this organism. Reproductive activity is presently stable (2012), with almost all animals initiating reproduction in the fall and spawning the following spring. The community has shifted from being dominated by several opportunistic species to a community where the species are more similar in abundance, a pattern that indicates a more stable community that is subjected to fewer stressors. In addition, two of the opportunistic species (Ampelisca abdita and Streblospio benedicti) that brood their young and live on the surface of the sediment in tubes have shown a continual decline in dominance coincident with the decline in metals; both species had short-lived rebounds in abundance in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Heteromastus filiformis (a subsurface polychaete worm that lives in the sediment, consumes sediment and organic particles residing in the sediment, and reproduces by laying its eggs on or in the sediment) showed a concurrent increase in dominance and, in the last several years before 2008, showed a stable population. H. filiformis abundance increased slightly in 2011–2012. An unidentified disturbance occurred on the mudflat in early 2008 that resulted in the loss of the benthic animals, except for those deep-dwelling animals like Macoma petalum. Animals immediately returned to the mudflat in 2008, which was the first indication that the disturbance was not due to a persistent toxin or to anoxia. The reproductive mode of most species present in 2012 is reflective of the species that were available either as pelagic larvae or as mobile adults. Although oviparous species were lower in number in this group, the authors hypothesize that these species will return slowly as more species move back into the area. The use of functional ecology was highlighted in the 2012 benthic community data, which show that the animals that have now returned to the mudflat are those that can respond successfully to a physical, nontoxic disturbance. Today, community data show a mix of animals that consume the sediment, filter feed, have pelagic larvae that must survive landing on the sediment, and brood their young. USGS scientists continue to observe the community’s response to the 2008 defaunation event because it allows them to examine the response of the community to a natural disturbance (possible causes include sediment accretion or freshwater inundation) and compare this recovery to the long-term recovery observed in the 1970s when the decline in sediment pollutants was the dominating factor.

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USGS2013

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Francisco Bay groundwater basins, 2007—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 620-square-mile (1,600-square-kilometer) San Francisco Bay study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in the Southern Coast Ranges of California, in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, and Contra Costa Counties. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA San Francisco Bay study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated groundwater within the primary aquifer system, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality throughout the State. The assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected by the USGS from 79 wells in 2007 and is supplemented with water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer system is defined by the depth interval of the wells listed in the CDPH database for the San Francisco Bay study unit. The quality of groundwater in shallower or deeper water-bearing zones may differ from that in the primary aquifer system; shallower groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The first component of this study, the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource, was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. Water- quality data from the CDPH database also were incorporated for this assessment. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources within the primary aquifer system of the San Francisco Bay study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California benchmarks. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark, and a relative-concentration less than or equal to (≤) 1.0 indicates a concentration equal to or less than a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic and special-interest constituents were classified as low (relative- concentration ≤ 0.1), moderate (0.1 < relative- concentration ≤ 1.0), or high (relative-concentration > 1.0). Inorganic constituent relative- concentrations were classified as low (relative-concentration ≤ 0.5), moderate (0.5 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or high (relative- concentration > 1.0). A lower threshold value of relative-concentration was used to distinguish between low and moderate values of organic constituents because organic constituents are generally less prevalent and have smaller relative-concentrations than naturally occurring inorganic constituents. Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the metric for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the percentage of the primary aquifer system that has relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; proportion is based on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the percentages of the primary aquifer system that have moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportion for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable in the San Francisco Bay study unit (90-percent confidence intervals). Inorganic constituents with health-based benchmarks were present at high relative-concentrations in 5.1 percent of the primary aquifer system, and at moderate relative-concentrations in 25 percent. The high aquifer-scale proportion of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of barium (3.0 percent) and nitrate (2.1 percent). Inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels were present at high relative-concentrations in 14 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate relative-concentrations in 33 percent. The constituents present at high relative-concentrations included total dissolved solids (7.0 percent), chloride (6.1 percent), manganese (12 percent), and iron (3.0 percent). Organic constituents with health-based benchmarks were present at high relative-concentrations in 0.6 percent and at moderate relative-concentrations in 12 percent of the primary aquifer system. Of the 202 organic constituents analyzed for, 32 were detected. Three organic constituents were frequently detected (in 10 percent or more of samples): the trihalomethane chloroform, the solvent 1,1,1-trichloroethane and the refrigerant 1,1,2-trichlorotrifluoroethane. One special-interest constituent, perchlorate, was detected at moderate relative-concentrations in 42 percent of the primary aquifer system. The second component of this work, the understanding assessment, identified some of the primary natural and human factors that may affect groundwater quality by evaluating land use, physical characteristics of the wells, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Results from these evaluations were used to explain the occurrence and distribution of constituents in the study unit.

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USGS2012

Ancient blue oaks reveal human impact on San Francisco Bay salinity

San Francisco Bay is one of the most important estuaries on the west coast of the Americas. Its water quality is controlled primarily by streamflow from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers. In fact, freshwater inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta explains 86% of the salinity variability at the mouth of the San Francisco Bay estuary [ Peterson et al ., 1989]. The massive diversion of streamflow by the California State Water Project and the Central Valley Project, part of the largest manmade water control system on Earth [ Reisner , 1988], has raised salinity in the estuary on daily, seasonal, and annual timescales [ Nichols et al., 1986; Peterson et al., 1989].

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USGS2012

GPS measured rates of deformation in the northern San Francisco Bay Region, California, 1990–1993

A 100-km-long, 13-station profile extending across the San Andreas fault system north of San Francisco Bay was measured 7 times between March 1990 and January 1993 with the Global Positioning System (GPS). The data have been processed using the Bernese Version 3.2 software. Data from a continental-scale fiducial network were included in the solutions to aid orbit improvement and provide a consistent reference frame. We find 33 ± 2 mm/yr of fault-parallel (N33°W) shear evenly distributed southwest and northeast of the Rodgers Creek fault and a near linear velocity gradient across the profile. The profile spans most of the zone of active deformation associated with the San Andreas fault system. Shear is negligible at the east end of the profile near the Great Valley. Additional shear of a few millimeters per year is likely beyond Point Reyes Head, the west end of the profile. We observe no systematic convergence upon the fault. The GPS measured velocities are similar to those derived previously from trilateration. The velocity change across the GPS profile (31–35 mm/yr) plus that west of the profile (0–3 mm/yr) and that observed with VLBI east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (∼10–12 mm/yr) accounts for the North American-Pacific plate rate (46–47 mm/yr).

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USGS2012

Teleseismic tomography of the Loma Prieta Earthquake Region, California: Implications for strain partitioning

From teleseismic travel times we derive three-dimensional velocity models of the upper 71 km in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake region, central California. Shallow crustal structure is consistent with local-earthquake tomography. Horizontal velocity gradients at all depths suggest that the San Andreas fault was a deep shear locus, at least at one time. A large low-velocity feature near the Moho beneath Loma Prieta probably is caused by a crustal root. Two low-velocity features at about 45–70 km depth are offset right-laterally along the San Andreas by about 45 km. Cooling of this portion of the upper mantle [ Furlong et al., 1989] could have frozen in displacements in this region within a few million years after passage of the Mendocino Triple Junction. These results are consistent with Furlong et al.'s model.

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USGS2012

Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A north San Francisco Bay estuary case study

We modeled the hydrology of basins draining into the northern portion of the San Francisco Bay Estuary (North San Pablo Bay) using a regional water balance model (Basin Characterization Model; BCM) to estimate potential effects of climate change at the watershed scale. The BCM calculates water balance components, including runoff, recharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and stream flow, based on climate, topography, soils and underlying geology, and the solar-driven energy balance. We downscaled historical and projected precipitation and air temperature values derived from weather stations and global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to a spatial scale of 270 m. We then used the BCM to estimate hydrologic response to climate change for four scenarios spanning this century (2000–2100). Historical climate patterns show that Marin’s coastal regions are typically on the order of 2 °C cooler and receive five percent more precipitation compared to the inland valleys of Sonoma and Napa because of marine influences and local topography. By the last 30 years of this century, North Bay scenarios project average minimum temperatures to increase by 1.0 °C to 3.1 °C and average maximum temperatures to increase by 2.1 °C to 3.4 °C (in comparison to conditions experienced over the last 30 years, 1981–2010). Precipitation projections for the 21st century vary between GCMs (ranging from 2 to 15% wetter than the 20th-century average). Temperature forcing increases the variability of modeled runoff, recharge, and stream discharge, and shifts hydrologic cycle timing. For both high- and low-rainfall scenarios, by the close of this century warming is projected to amplify late-season climatic water deficit (a measure of drought stress on soils) by 8% to 21%. Hydrologic variability within a single river basin demonstrated at the scale of subwatersheds may prove an important consideration for water managers in the face of climate change. Our results suggest that in arid environments characterized by high topo-climatic variability, land and water managers need indicators of local watershed hydrology response to complement regional temperature and precipitation estimates. Our results also suggest that temperature forcing may generate greater drought stress affecting soils and stream flows than can be estimated by variability in precipitation alone.

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USGS2012

Drivers of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems: Discoveries from four decades of study in San Francisco Bay

Poised at the interface of rivers, ocean, atmosphere and dense human settlement, estuaries are driven by a large array of natural and anthropogenic forces. San Francisco Bay exemplifies the fast-paced change occurring in many of the world's estuaries, bays and inland seas in response to these diverse forces. We use observations from this particularly well-studied estuary to illustrate responses to six drivers that are common agents of change where land and sea meet: water consumption and diversion; human modification of sediment supply; introduction of non-native species; sewage input; environmental policy; and climate shifts. In San Francisco Bay, responses to these drivers include, respectively, shifts in the timing and extent of freshwater inflow and salinity intrusion; decreasing turbidity; restructuring of plankton communities; nutrient enrichment; elimination of hypoxia and reduced metal contamination of biota; and food web changes that decrease resistance of the estuary to nutrient pollution. Detection of these changes and discovery of their causes through environmental monitoring have been essential for establishing and measuring outcomes of environmental policies that aim to maintain high water quality and sustain services provided by estuarine-coastal ecosystems. The wide range of variability time scales and the multiplicity of interacting drivers place heavy demands on estuarine monitoring programs. But the San Francisco Bay case study illustrates why the imperative for monitoring has never been greater.

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