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Research about Puerto Rico

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Puerto Rico.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Potentiometric surface and hydrologic conditions of the South Coast aquifer, Santa Isabel area, Puerto Rico, March–April, 2014

A potentiometric surface map of the South Coast aquifer near Santa Isabel, Puerto Rico, was created from data collected during a synoptic survey of groundwater levels at 55 wells from March 31 to April 17, 2014. Measured groundwater level values ranged from −22.8 to 185.4 feet above mean sea level. During the study period, cumulative rainfall of 0.65 inch was recorded in the study area. Measurements of instantaneous streamflow at 15 locations in streams and irrigation canals, and locations of irrigation ponds, provide additional information about the hydrologic setting. Results of the study indicate a cone of depression was present near the center and eastern parts of the Santa Isabel area of southern Puerto Rico, and a small, deeper cone of depression existed west of Santa Isabel and Rio Coamo. These cones of depression represent areas where the potentiometric surface was below mean sea level. The long-term persistence of such conditions could result in seawater intrusion and an increase in concentrations of total dissolved solids within the South Coast aquifer.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Bathymetric survey and sedimentation analysis of Lago Carite, Puerto Rico, January 2018

During January 23–30, 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, conducted a bathymetric survey of Lago Carite primarily to update estimates of the contemporary reservoir storage capacity and sedimentation rate. Previously designated transect lines were surveyed by using a depth sounder coupled to a differential Global Positioning System to generate a bottom contour map and, ultimately, the stage-storage relation for Lago Carite. Survey results indicated that the storage capacity was 10.0 million cubic meters in 2018; no substantial sedimentation has occurred since the last survey in 1999 and the annual capacity loss is about 0.20 percent of the original reservoir capacity. The useful life of Lago Carite is projected to be 397 years, ending in 2415.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Altered climate leads to positive density‐dependent feedbacks in a tropical wet forest

Climate change is predicted to result in warmer and drier Neotropical forests relative to current conditions. Negative density‐dependent feedbacks, mediated by natural enemies, are key to maintaining the high diversity of tree species found in the tropics, yet we have little understanding of how projected changes in climate are likely to affect these critical controls. Over 3 years, we evaluated the effects of a natural drought and in situ experimental warming on density‐dependent feedbacks on seedling demography in a wet tropical forest in Puerto Rico. In the +4°C warming treatment, we found that seedling survival increased with increasing density of the same species (conspecific). These positive density‐dependent feedbacks were not associated with a decrease in aboveground natural enemy pressure. If positive density‐dependent feedbacks are not transient, the diversity of tropical wet forests, which may rely on negative density dependence to drive diversity, could decline in a future warmer, drier world.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Map depicting susceptibility to landslides triggered by intense rainfall, Puerto Rico

Landslides in Puerto Rico range from nuisances to deadly events. Centuries of agricultural and urban modification of the landscape have perturbed many already unstable hillsides on the tropical island. One of the main triggers of mass wasting on the island is the high-intensity rainfall that is associated with tropical atmospheric systems. Puerto Rico’s geographic position and rugged topography render millions of residents vulnerable to widespread landslide events. In this study, a high-resolution (5 meters), high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility model was produced using the frequency-ratio method. Datasets utilized in the model included a complete-island landslide inventory created from imagery obtained after Hurricanes Irma and María impacted the island during September 2017, slope inclination, land-surface curvature, soil type, geologic terrane, mean annual precipitation, land use, soil moisture, and distance to roadways and streams. The final data product (plate 1) is a statistically viable representation of where landslides are likely to initiate during or soon after intense rainfall, with a robust receiver operating characteristic area-under-curve value of 0.87. The model output raster pixel values were binned into 100 equal-area quantiles and then classified into Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extremely High classes of susceptibility. The Extremely High susceptibility classification represents the most vulnerable 1 percent of the island, whereas Very High, High, Moderate, and Low classifications cover 9, 20, 30, and 40 percent of the island, respectively. The susceptibility map is intended to assist in planning future development, mitigation measures, and post-event emergency response; however, it is not a substitute for site-specific, slope-stability assessments performed by licensed geologists and engineers. Additionally, the map does not portray locations where landslide material may travel after mobilization, and which may be at extreme risk; nor does it necessarily portray where landslides may occur during earthquakes or mass wasting triggered by prolonged, relatively low-intensity rainfall.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Potential duration of aftershocks of the 2020 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake

Abstract Aftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these aftershocks by incorporating observations of aftershocks as of January 17, 2020, into a well-established statistical model of how earthquake sequences behave. Aftershocks will persist for years to decades, although with decreasing frequency, and earthquakes will likely be felt on a daily basis for up to several months. These estimates have significant uncertainty owing to different scenarios of how the earthquake sequence may evolve over time and could also change if a new large aftershock occurs. This report also estimates the amount of time remaining until the annual probability of magnitude 5, 6, and 7 or greater aftershocks—which could cause additional damage—decreases to 50, 25, 10, 5, and 1 percent. As of this writing, the chance of having a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake within a given year, going forward, will not fall below 25 percent for another 3 months to 3 years. The chance of having a magnitude 5 or greater earthquake will not fall below 25 percent for a decade or more. The aftershocks discussed in this report would be located in the same general area as the aftershocks that have already occurred. Our results do not imply a change in the risk of earthquakes in other parts of Puerto Rico. Resumen Las réplicas (terremotos agrupados espacial y cronológicamente cerca de la ocurrencia de un terremoto causante) están en curso en el suroeste de Puerto Rico después de una serie de terremotos, que incluyen un terremoto de magnitud 6.4, ocurrido cerca del Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, el 7 de enero de 2020 y que afectaron las áreas circundantes. Este informe estima la duración esperada de las réplicas incorporando observaciones de réplicas a partir del 17 de enero de 2020 en un modelo estadístico bien establecido de cómo se comportan las secuencias de terremotos. Las réplicas persistirán durante años o décadas, aunque con una frecuencia decreciente, y los terremotos probablemente se sentirán a diario durante varios meses. Estos estimados tienen una incertidumbre significativa debido a diferentes escenarios de cómo la secuencia del terremoto puede evolucionar con el tiempo y también podrían cambiar si ocurre una nueva réplica grande. Este informe también estima la cantidad de tiempo restante hasta que la probabilidad anual de réplicas de magnitud 5, 6 y 7 o más - que podría causar daños adicionales- disminuya a un 50, 25, 10, 5 y 1 por ciento. Al momento de escribir este artículo, la posibilidad de tener un terremoto de magnitud 6 en un año determinado, en el futuro, no caerá por debajo del 25 por ciento durante otros 3 meses a 3 años. La probabilidad de tener un terremoto de magnitud 5 o mayor no será inferior al 25 por ciento durante una década o más. Las réplicas discutidas en este informe se ubicarían en la misma área general que las réplicas que ya han ocurrido. Nuestros resultados no implican un cambio en el riesgo de terremotos en otras partes de Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Factors that influence participation of Puerto Rican coffee farmers in conservation programs

Sustainable, conservation-oriented agricultural practices like shade coffee and agroforestry can enhance conservation objectives in tropical landscapes. Adoption of these practices, however, is influenced by numerous factors. We conducted a survey of 89 coffee farmers in Puerto Rico to understand their farming practices, experience with existing incentives, and willingness to participate in conservation programs. Quantitative analysis showed that current farming practices, farm size, and annual income from farming were associated with willingness to participate in conservation programs. Qualitative results suggested that financial considerations, conflicting state and federal incentives, lack of information about conservation programs, distrust in government, and land use restrictions might hinder participation. Some farmers perceived that sun farming—a practice incompatible with sustainable conservation—was required to be eligible for state agricultural incentives. The way some farmers practiced shade farming differed from the way suggested for conservation purposes, particularly in the type of shade trees and their cover density. Farmers highlighted the need for financial incentives to encourage adoption of shade farming. They also expressed concerns that participation in conservation programs could limit their land management autonomy. We suggest that availability of financial incentives, reconciliation of institutional barriers, increased outreach, and involvement of farmers in design of conservation programs can increase adoption and retention of conservation practices.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2020

Soil biogeochemical responses of a tropical forest to warming and hurricane disturbance

Tropical forests represent <15% of Earths terrestrial surface yet support >50% of the planets species and play a disproportionately large role in determining climate due to the vast amounts of carbon they store and exchange with the atmosphere. Currently, disturbance patterns in tropical ecosystems are changing due to factors such as increased land use pressure and an occurrence of hurricanes. At the same time, these regions are expected to experience unprecedented warming before 2100. Despite the importance of these ecosystems for forecasting the global consequences of multiple stressors, our understanding of how projected changes in climate and disturbance will affect the biogeochemical cycling of tropical forests remains in its infancy. Until now, no studies to our knowledge have evaluated forest recovery following hurricane disturbance within the context of concurrent climatic change. Here, we present soil biogeochemical results from a tropical forest field warming experiment in Puerto Rico where, a year after experimental warming began, Hurricanes Irma and Mara greatly altered the forest, allowing a unique opportunity to explore the interacting effects of hurricane disturbance and warming. We tracked post-hurricane forest recovery for a year without warming to assess legacy effects of prior warming on the disturbance response, and then reinitiated warming treatments to further evaluate interactions between forest recovery and warmer temperatures. The data showed that warming affected multiple aspects of soil biogeochemical cycling even in the first year of treatment, with particularly large positive effects on soil microbial biomass pools (e.g., increases of 54, 43, and 46% relative to the control plots were observed for microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively after 6 months of warming). We also observed significant effects of the hurricanes on soil biogeochemical cycling, as well as interactive controls of warming and disturbance. Taken together, our results showed dynamic soil responses that suggest the future of biogeochemical cycling in this tropical wet forest will be strongly shaped by the directional effects of warming and the episodic effects of hurricanes.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Spatiotemporal modeling of dengue fever risk in Puerto Rico

Dengue Fever (DF) is a mosquito vector transmitted flavivirus and a reemerging global public health threat. Although several studies have addressed the relation between climatic and environmental factors and the epidemiology of DF, or looked at purely spatial or time series analysis, this article presents a joint spatio-temporal epidemiological analysis. Our approach accounts for both temporal and spatial autocorrelation in DF incidence and the effect of temperatures and precipitation by using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We fitted several space-time areal models to predict relative risk at the municipality level and for each month from 1990 to 2014. Model selection was performed according to several criteria: the preferred models detected significant effects for temperature at time lags of up to four months and for precipitation up to three months. A boundary detection analysis is incorporated in the modeling approach, and it was successful in detecting municipalities with historically anomalous risk.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Influence of habitat structure and prey abundance on cccupancy and abundance of two anole ecomorphs, Anolis cristatellus and Anolis krugi, in secondary karst forests in northern Puerto Rico

Ecological studies strive to identify factors that explain patterns of species distribution and abundance. In lizards, competition and predation are major forces influencing distribution and abundance, but there is also increasing evidence pointing at the influence of habitat structure and prey abundance. Our work explored the latter further by quantifying the effects of vegetation and prey abundance on occupancy and abundance (i.e., estimated probability of detecting more than two individuals) of two sympatrically occurring species in the northern karst belt of Puerto Rico. We hypothesized that Anolis cristatellus would occur in trunk–ground substrates and Anolis krugi on grass–bush substrates according to their ecomorphological classification. We also hypothesized that prey abundance, a component of habitat quality, would have a positive and strong effect on occupancy and abundance. Anolis cristatellus exhibited high occupancy rates (>0.80), influenced by mid-story tree size. A. cristatellus abundance fluctuated over time, with highest probability of detecting two or more individuals in January–March and July–September when prey abundance transitioned from low to high levels. Occupancy of A. krugi was positively influenced by sapling density and prey abundance. Prey abundance exerted a stronger influence on occupancy, but its influence on abundance was negative and strong. Biological interactions and the type of understory substrates may explain the negative relationship. Our study supported predicted relationships between ecomorphology and habitat, but also showed that higher prey abundance may not always translate to higher local abundance. We shed light on these interactions, knowledge needed to advance anole conservation in the advent of land use and climate change.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Debris-flow growth in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Maria: Preliminary results from analyses of pre- and post-event lidar data

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria triggered widespread debris flows in Puerto Rico. We used field observations and pre- and post-Maria lidar to study the volumetric growth of long-travelled (>400 m) debris flows in four basins. We found overall growth rates that ranged from 0.7 to 30.4 m 3 per meter of channel length. We partitioned the rates into two growth mechanisms, aggregation of multiple landslides, or erosion and entrainment of channel sediment. In three basins, landslides accounted for more than 80% of the total debris-flow volumes. In one basin, entrainment accounted for 96% of the volume. These results indicate that forecasting volumes for regional debris-flow inundation modeling is more complicated than estimating the number and volume of contributing landslide source areas, although this task is difficult by itself. In this preliminary analysis, we did not find geologic, topographic, or morphometric variables that correlated with the growth observations. We suspect that the observed growth rates were heavily influenced by local variations in environmental conditions, including antecedent soil moisture conditions, duration and intensity of rainfall, and availability of channel material. Given these considerations, regional debris-flow inundation modeling may be best achieved by using a suite of scenarios that capture possible mechanisms of debris-flow growth.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2020

Avian community responses to management of vegetation and water levels in restored wetlands at the Humacao Nature Reserve, Puerto Rico

Coastal wetlands of the Caribbean have been greatly reduced in area and quality, and information on wildlife responses to management is lacking. We applied wetland management practices (disking, control of water levels) in a site historically disturbed by Saccharum spp. (sugarcane) cultivation at the Humacao Nature Reserve, southeastern Puerto Rico, and evaluated avian community response. We conducted weekly bird surveys and nest searches on disked and non-disked plots within recently constructed impoundments. The avian community shifted from 16 upland dominated species pre-restoration, to 67 wetland-dependent species at the end of our study (2001–2002). Ordination analysis indicated avian guild use of plots varied with environmental variables. Bird species diversity was not influenced by treatment, month, or salinity levels but was influenced by water depth and vegetation cover. Bird abundance was influenced by water depth, but not by treatment, month, salinity or vegetation cover. Furthermore, water depths of 0.10–0.20 m and salinity of ≤15 ppt promoted habitat conditions suitable for a diverse wetland avian community. We located 268 nests of 8 wetland bird species and observed adults with young of various other waterbirds, including species of conservation concern such as Dendrocygna arborea (West Indian Whistling Duck) and Porzana flaviventer (Yellow-breasted Crake). Bird community responses suggest that management practices (i.e., soil disturbance and control of water levels) can improve wetland biodiversity in abandoned sugarcane fields of Puerto Rico. Moreover, these practices may benefit wetland biodiversity in other Caribbean islands with a similar history of land use and habitat degradation.

Humacao Nature Reserve↗
USGS2019

Sedimentation survey of Lago Guayabal, Villalba, Puerto Rico, December 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, conducted a sedimentation survey of Lago Guayabal in 2017 to determine reservoir infill sedimentation rates, generate a bathymetric map of the bottom elevations of the reservoir, and create a stage-volume relation. The original (1913) capacity of Lago Guayabal was 11.82 million cubic meters, and efforts to increase the storage capacity were made in 1950 by the installation of flashboards. The 2017 survey indicated that storage capacity of Lago Guayabal is 4.98 million cubic meters. The estimated full sediment infill of Lago Guayabal is expected in 77 years, based on the long-term sedimentation rate of 0.065 million cubic meters per year determined for the 1972–2017 period.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2019

Resolving a paradox—high mercury deposition, but low bioaccumulation in northeastern Puerto Rico

At a “clean air” trade winds site in northeastern Puerto Rico, we found an apparent paradox: atmospheric total mercury (THg) deposition was highest of any site in the USA Mercury Deposition Network, but assimilation into the local food web was quite low. Avian blood THg concentrations (n = 31, from eight species in five foraging guilds) ranged widely from 0.2 to 32 ng g −1 (median of 4.3 ng g −1 ). Within this population, THg was significantly greater at a low-elevation site near a wetland compared to an upland montane site, even when the comparison was limited to a single species. Overall, however, THg concentrations were approximately an order of magnitude lower than comparable populations in the continental U.S. In surface soil and sediment, potential rates of demethylation were 3 to 9-fold greater than those for Hg(II)-methylation (based on six radiotracer amendment incubations), but rates of change of ambient MeHg pools showed a slight net positive Hg(II)-methylation. Thus, the resolution of the paradox is that MeHg degradation approximately keeps pace with MeHg production in this landscape. Further, any net production of MeHg is subject to frequent flushing by high rainfall on chronically wet soils. The interplay of these microbial processes and hydrology appears to shield the local food web from adverse effects of high atmospheric mercury loading. This scenario may play out in other humid tropical ecosystems as well, but it is difficult to evaluate because coordinated studies of Hg deposition, methylation, and trophic uptake have not been conducted at other tropical sites.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Long-term (37 years) impacts of low-head dams on freshwater shrimp habitat connectivity in northeastern Puerto Rico

Freshwater migratory shrimp in Puerto Rico depend on watershed connectivity, from stream headwaters to the ocean, to complete their life cycle. Moreover, shrimp populations in different watersheds are known to be connected in an island-wide metapopulation. However, low-head dams paired with water intakes on streams draining the El Yunque National Forest (EYNF) reduce streamflow. Here, we examine the cumulative effects of low-head dams on shrimp habitat connectivity over 37-years across seven EYNF watersheds. We calculate total and refugia habitat connectivity (where refugia habitat is defined as predator-free upstream reaches above waterfalls > 5 m in height) at a monthly time step using a habitat-weighted index of longitudinal riverine connectivity, which incorporates location and operation of water intakes and streamflow variability. Findings indicate total and refugia habitat connectivity declined over 37 years (by 27% and 16%, respectively) as additional water intakes have been placed in lower reaches of watersheds. On a monthly time-step, the proportion of streamflow withdrawn has the largest effect on habitat connectivity, with the result that connectivity is ~17% lower during drought years than in non-drought years and ~7% lower in dry compared to wet seasons. Our analysis of this long-term dataset highlights how cumulative effects of low-head dams paired with water intakes have reduced shrimp habitat connectivity. These results underscore the importance of reducing existing withdrawal rates in EYNF, and locating intakes where effects on connectivity are minimal, if conserving shrimp habitat is a management objective.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Hysteretic response of solutes and turbidity at the event scale across forested tropical montane watersheds

Concentration-discharge relationships are a key tool for understanding the sourcing and transport of material from watersheds to fluvial networks. Storm events in particular provide insight into variability in the sources of solutes and sediment within watersheds, and the hydrologic pathways that connect hillslope to stream channel. Here we examine high-frequency sensor-based specific conductance and turbidity data from multiple storm events across two watersheds (Quebrada Sonadora and Rio Icacos) with different lithology in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico, a forested tropical ecosystem. Our analyses include Hurricane Maria, a category 5 hurricane. To analyze hysteresis, we used a recently developed set of metrics to describe and quantify storm events including the hysteresis index (HI), which describes the directionality of hysteresis loops, and the flushing index (FI), which can be used to infer whether the mobilization of material is source or transport limited. We also examine the role of antecedent discharge to predict hysteretic behavior during storms. Overall, specific conductance and turbidity showed contrasting responses to storms. The hysteretic behavior of specific conductance was very similar across sites, displaying clockwise hysteresis and a negative flushing index indicating proximal sources of solutes and consistent source limitation. In contrast, the directionality of turbidity hysteresis was significantly different between watersheds, although both had strong flushing behavior indicative of transport limitation. Overall, models that included antecedent discharge did not perform any better than models with peak discharge alone, suggesting that the magnitude and trajectory of an individual event was the strongest driver of material flux and hysteretic behavior. Hurricane Maria produced unique hysteresis metrics within both watersheds, indicating a distinctive response to this major hydrological event. The similarity in response of specific conductance to storms suggests that solute sources and pathways are similar in the two watersheds. The divergence in behavior for turbidity suggests that sources and pathways of particulate matter vary between the two watersheds. The use of high-frequency sensor data allows the quantification of storm events while index-based metrics of hysteresis allow for the direct comparison of complex storm events across a heterogeneous landscape and variable flow conditions.

Luquillo Mountains↗
USGS2019

Population estimates of Antillean manatees in Puerto Rico: An analytical framework for aerial surveys using multi-pass removal sampling

Effective management of the threatened Antillean manatee ( Trichechus manatus manatus ) in Puerto Rico requires reliable estimates of population size. Estimates are needed to assess population responses to management actions, and whether recovery objectives have been met. Aerial surveys have been conducted since 1976, but none adjusted for imperfect detection. We summarize surveys since 1976, report on current distribution, and provide population estimates after accounting for apparent detection probability for surveys between June 2010 and March 2014. Estimates in areas of high concentration (hotspots) averaged 317 ± 101, three times higher than unadjusted counts (104 ± 0.56). Adjusted estimates in three areas outside hotspots also differed markedly from counts (75 ± 9.89 versus 19.5 ± 3.5). Average minimum island-wide estimate was 386 ± 89, similar to the maximum estimate of 360 suggested in 2005, but fewer than the 700 recently suggested by the Puerto Rico Manatee Conservation Center. Manatees were more widespread than previously understood. Improving estimates, locally or island-wide, will require stratifying the island differently and greater knowledge about factors affecting detection probability. Sharing our protocol with partners in nearby islands (e.g., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola), whose populations share genetic make-up, would contribute to enhanced regional conservation through better population estimates and tracking range expansion.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Controls on sediment transport over coral reefs off southwest Puerto Rico: Seasonal patterns and Hurricane Maria

Guánica Bay in southwest Puerto Rico is highly turbid and has some of the highest PCB concentrations in the USA. To investigate how and to what extent the bay waters influence coral reef ecosystem health along the coastline, 6 months of hydrodynamic data were collected at 8 sites on the insular shelf. Bed shear stresses were primarily driven by waves and were weakest at the site closest to La Parguera, located downcoast to the west. Due to the prevailing westward shelf currents, suspended particulate material (SPM) exiting the bay likely settles out at these lower energy sites. We postulate the ecosystem in this area was adversely affected immediately after the hurricane because (1) the source concentration of SPM and PCBs in the bay was greatly increased, and (2) regional waves in the months after the hurricane season were less energetic and, thus, less frequently mobilized and flushed the material.

Puerto Rico↗