Research about Popocatépetl Volcano

USGS2013

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Popocatépetl Volcano↗

USGS2005

Source mechanism of Vulcanian degassing at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico, determined from waveform inversions of very long period signals

The source mechanism of very long period (VLP) signals accompanying volcanic degassing bursts at Popocatépetl is analyzed in the 15–70 s band by minimizing the residual error between data and synthetics calculated for a point source embedded in a homogeneous medium. The waveforms of two eruptions (23 April and 23 May 2000) representative of mild Vulcanian activity are well reproduced by our inversion, which takes into account volcano topography. The source centroid is positioned 1500 m below the western perimeter of the summit crater, and the modeled source is composed of a shallow dipping crack (sill with easterly dip of 10°) intersecting a steeply dipping crack (northeast striking dike dipping 83° northwest), whose surface extension bisects the vent. Both cracks undergo a similar sequence of inflation, deflation, and reinflation, reflecting a cycle of pressurization, depressurization, and repressurization within a time interval of 3–5 min. The largest moment release occurs in the sill, showing a maximum volume change of 500–1000 m 3 , pressure drop of 3–5 MPa, and amplitude of recovered pressure equal to 1.2 times the amplitude of the pressure drop. In contrast, the maximum volume change in the dike is less (200–300 m 3 ), with a corresponding pressure drop of 1–2 MPa and pressure recovery equal to the pressure drop. Accompanying these volumetric sources are single-force components with magnitudes of 10 8 N, consistent with melt advection in response to pressure transients. The source time histories of the volumetric components of the source indicate that significant mass movement starts within the sill and triggers a mass movement response in the dike within a few seconds. Such source behavior is consistent with the opening of a pathway for escape of pent-up gases from slow pressurization of the sill driven by magma crystallization. The opening of this pathway and associated rapid evacuation of volcanic gases induces the pressure drop. Pressure recovery in the magma filling the sill is driven by diffusion of gases from the resulting supersaturated melt into bubbles. Assuming a penny-shaped crack at ambient pressure of 40 MPa, the observed pressure and volume variations can be modeled with the following attributes: crack radius (100 m), crack aperture (5 m), bubble number density (10 10 –10 12 m −3 ), initial bubble radius (10 −6 m), final bubble radius (&sim;10 −5 m), and net decrease of gas concentration in the melt (0.01 wt %).

Popocatépetl Volcano↗