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Research about Parkfield, California

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Parkfield, California.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Probing lower-crustal fault properties with frequency-dependent tidal tremor triggering

The way seismicity responds to periodic stress perturbations offers crucial insights into the processes that can trigger an earthquake. Laboratory and theoretical analyses have shown that the period of imposed forcing and source properties affect the sensitivity to triggering, but frequency-dependent triggering of tectonic faults is poorly understood. The rate of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near Parkfield, California has been found to be strongly correlated with solid earth tides. Tidal forcing acts over multiple frequencies, and the sensitivity to tidal triggering of LFEs therefore provides a unique opportunity to probe the physics of earthquake triggering and underlying fault properties. Here, we find that the response of LFEs to solid earth tides at diurnal and semi-diurnal frequencies is highly variable but spatially coherent along the San Andreas Fault. Using rate-state friction modeling, we find that the variation of the amplitude of tidal modulation is mainly affected by the spatial variation of the background effective normal stress, whereas the spatially varied tidal modulation at diurnal and semi-diurnal frequencies is mainly affected by the fault frictional property. The spatial variations of the LFE response reveal a heterogeneous lower-crustal geologic structure and complex physical faulting processes below the rupture zone of eventual great earthquakes.

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USGS2024

Seismic attenuation and stress on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield: Are we critical yet?

The Parkfield transitional segment of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) is characterized by the production of frequent quasi-periodical M6 events that break the very same asperity. The last Parkfield mainshock occurred on 28 September 2004, 38 years after the 1966 earthquake, and after the segment showed a ∼22 years average recurrence time. The main reason for the much longer interevent period between the last two earthquakes is thought to be the reduction of the Coulomb stress from the M6.5 Coalinga earthquake of 2 May 1983, and the M6 Nuñez events of June 11th and 22 July 1983. Plausibly, the transitional segment of the SAF at Parkfield is now in the late part of its seismic cycle and current observations may all be relative to a state of stress close to criticality. However, the behavior of the attenuation parameter in the last few years seems substantially different from the one that characterized the years prior to the 2004 mainshock. A few questions arise: (i) Does a detectable preparation phase for the Parkfield mainshocks exist, and is it the same for all events? (ii) How dynamically/kinematically similar are the quasi-periodic occurrences of the Parkfield mainshocks? (iii) Are some dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the next mainshock predictable from the analysis of current data? (e.g., do we expect the epicenter of the next failure to be co-located to that of 2004?) (iv) Should we expect the duration of the current interseismic period to be close to the 22-year “undisturbed” average value? We respond to the questions listed above by analyzing the non-geometric attenuation of direct S-waves along the transitional segment of the SAF at Parkfield, in the close vicinity of the fault plane, between January 2001 and November 2023. Of particular interest is the preparatory behavior of the attenuation parameter as the 2004 mainshock approached, on both sides of the SAF. We also show that the non-volcanic tremor activity modulates the seismic attenuation in the area, and possibly the seismicity along the Parkfield fault segment, including the occurrence of the mainshocks.

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USGS2016

3-D P- and S-wave velocity structure and low-frequency earthquake locations in the Parkfield, California region

To refine the 3-D seismic velocity model in the greater Parkfield, California region, a new data set including regular earthquakes, shots, quarry blasts and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) was assembled. Hundreds of traces of each LFE family at two temporary arrays were stacked with time–frequency domain phase weighted stacking method to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We extend our model resolution to lower crustal depth with LFE data. Our result images not only previously identified features but also low velocity zones (LVZs) in the area around the LFEs and the lower crust beneath the southern Rinconada Fault. The former LVZ is consistent with high fluid pressure that can account for several aspects of LFE behaviour. The latter LVZ is consistent with a high conductivity zone in magnetotelluric studies. A new Vs model was developed with S picks that were obtained with a new autopicker. At shallow depth, the low Vs areas underlie the strongest shaking areas in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We relocate LFE families and analyse the location uncertainties with the NonLinLoc and tomoDD codes. The two methods yield similar results.

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USGS2015

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

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USGS2014

Frequency-dependent effects of rupture for the 2004 Parkfield mainshock, results from UPSAR

The frequency-dependent effects of rupture propagation of the Parkfield, California earthquake (Sept. 28, 2004, M6) to the northwest along the San Andreas fault can be seen in acceleration records at UPSAR (USGS Parkfield Seismic Array) in at least two ways. First, we can see the effects of directivity in the acceleration traces at UPSAR, which is about 11.5 km from the epicenter. Directivity or the seismic equivalent of a Doppler shift has been documented in many cases by comparing short duration, high-amplitude pulses (P or S) in the forward direction with longer duration body waves in the backward direction. In this case we detect a change from a relatively large amplitude, coherent, high-frequency signal at the start of rupture to a low-amplitude, low-coherent, low-frequency signal at about the time the rupture front transfers from the forward azimuth to the back azimuth at about 34-36 s (time is UTC and are the seconds after day 272 and 17 hours and 15 minutes. S arrival is just after 30s) for rays leaving the fault and propagating to UPSAR. The frequency change is obvious in the band about 5 to 30 Hz, which is significantly above the corner frequency of the earthquake (about 0.11Hz). From kinematic source models, the duration of faulting is about 9.2 s and the change in frequency is during faulting as the rupture extends to the northwest. Understanding the systematic change in frequency and amplitude of seismic waves in relation to the propagation of the rupture front is important for predicting strong ground motion. Second, we can filter the acceleration records from the array to determine if the low frequency energy emerges from the same part of the fault as the high frequency signal (e.g. has the same back azimuth and apparent velocity at UPSAR) an important clue to the dynamics of rupture. Analysis of sources of strong motion (characterized by relatively high frequencies) compared to kinematic slip models (relatively low frequency) for the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake as well as Maule (Feb. 27, 2010) and Chi-Chi (Sept. 20, 1999) earthquakes show that high- and low-frequency sources do not have the same locations on the fault. In this paper we filter the accelerograms from UPSAR for the 2004 mainshock in various passbands and then re-compute the cross correlations to determine the vector slowness of the incoming waves. At Parkfield, it appears that for seismic waves with frequencies above 1 Hz there is no discernible frequency-dependent difference in source position (up to 8 Hz) based on estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity. However at lower frequencies, sources appear to be from shallower depths and trail the high frequencies as the rupture proceeds down the fault. This result is greater than one standard deviation of an estimate of error, based on a new method of estimating error that is a measure of how broad the peak in correlation is and an estimate of the variance of the correlation values. These observations can be understood in terms of a rupture front that is more energetic and coherent near the front of rupture (radiating higher frequencies) and less coherent and less energetic (radiating in a lower frequency band) behind the initial rupture front. This result is a qualitative assessment of changes in azimuth and apparent velocity with frequency and time and does not include corrections to find the source location on the fault.

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USGS2012

Improved stability of a deeply anchored geodetic monument for deformation monitoring

A test of two different monument designs used in geodetic networks shows that monuments installed to depths of 5 to 10 meters, and laterally braced, exhibit less environmentally caused displacement than those installed to 2 meters depth. At Parkfield, California, we have been monitoring the lengths of 17 baselines over the past decade with a 2 to 3 day interval between measurements using a two-color geodimeter with a nominal precision of 0.5 mm over 5 km long baselines. Significant variations are observed on many of these baselines which appear to be related to the seasonally occurring rainfall, with the larger variations approaching 10 mm over the past decade. To test whether we could improve upon the measurements on some of the more susceptible lines, at two sites we installed new monuments within about 30 meters of the original monuments. After 1.5 years of measurements it is evident that the new monuments significantly attenuate the seasonal displacements to less than 1 mm. The use of deeply anchored monuments should improve the ability of fault-scale geodetic monitoring arrays to detect small tectonic displacements.

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USGS2012

Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition

Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down to near the base of the crust. The deep families that have high sensitivity to both shear and tensile normal stress perturbations may be indicative of an increase in effective fault contact area with depth. Synthesizing our observations with those of other LFE-hosting localities will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of transient fault slip below the “seismogenic zone” by providing constraints on parameters in physical models of slow slip and LFEs.

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USGS2011

Earthquake prediction lessons from Parkfield Experiment

In 1985, the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), and later its California counterpart (CEPEC), approved an earthquake prediction for the first time. This was the Bakun and Lindh [1985] forecast, with 95% confidence, that an M = 5.5 to 6 earthquake would rupture along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield before 1993. This forecast was an important factor in selecting the Parkfield area for a major geophysical and geological monitoring study. The experiments installed there are aimed at producing a better understanding of the earthquake generation process and earthquake effects, gaining experience with real-time monitoring of a variety of geophysical data, and, if possible, making a short-term prediction of the future earthquake. Twenty-eight different observational networks now exist in the Parkfield area. The forecast also generated interest that led researchers to reexamine past Parkfield earthquakes with current knowledge and to develop new models of the earthquake cycle.

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USGS2010

Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.

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USGS2010

Analysis of nonvolcanic tremor on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA using U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array

Reports by Nadeau and Dolenc (2005) that tremor had been detected near Cholame Valley spawned an effort to use UPSAR (U. S. Geological Survey Parkfield Seismic Array) to study characteristics of tremor. UPSAR was modified to record three channels of velocity at 40–50 sps continuously in January 2005 and ran for about 1 month, during which time we recorded numerous episodes of tremor. One tremor, on 21 January at 0728, was recorded with particularly high signal levels as well as another episode 3 days later. Both events were very emergent, had a frequency content between 2 and 8 Hz, and had numerous high-amplitude, short-duration arrivals within the tremor signal. Here using the first episode as an example, we discuss an analysis procedure, which yields azimuth and apparent velocity of the tremor at UPSAR. We then provide locations for both tremor episodes. The emphasis here is how the tremor episode evolves. Twelve stations were operating at the time of recording. Slowness of arrivals was determined using cross correlation of pairs of stations; the same method used in analyzing the main shock data from 28 September 2004. A feature of this analysis is that 20 s of the time series were used at a time to calculate correlation; the longer windows resulted in more consistent estimates of slowness, but lower peak correlations. These values of correlation (peaks of about 0.25), however, are similar to that obtained for the S wave of a microearthquake. Observed peaks in slowness were traced back to source locations assumed to lie on the San Andreas fault. Our inferred locations for the two tremor events cluster near the locations of previously observed tremor, south of the Cholame Valley. Tremor source depths are in the 14–24 km range, which is below the seismogenic brittle zone, but above the Moho. Estimates of error do not preclude locations below the Moho, however. The tremor signal is very emergent but contains packets that are several times larger than the background tremor signal and lasts about 5 s. These impulsive wavelets are similar to low-frequency earthquakes signals seen in Japan but appear to be broader band rather than just higher in low-frequency energy. They may be more appropriately called high-energy tremor (HET). HET signals at UPSAR correlate well with the record of this event from station GHIB of the HRSN borehole array at Parkfield and HETs typically have a higher cross-correlation coefficient than the rest of the tremor event. The amplitudes of a large HET are consistent with a magnitude of 0.1 when compared with a M2.3 event that had about the same epicenter. Polarizations of the tremor episode at UPSAR are mostly just north of east. Both linearity and azimuth evolve over time suggesting a change in tremor source location over time and linearity is typically higher at the HETs.

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USGS2010

The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California

Since 1985, a focused earthquake prediction experiment has been in progress along the San Andreas fault near the town of Parkfield in central California. Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. The probability of another moderate earthquake soon appears high, but studies assigning it a 95% chance of occurring before 1993 now appear to have been over-simplified. The identification of a Parkfield fault “segment” was initially based on geometric features in the surface trace of the San Andreas fault, but more recent microearthquake studies have demonstrated that those features do not extend to seismogenic depths. On the other hand, geodetic measurements are consistent with the existence of a “locked” patch on the fault beneath Parkfield that has presently accumulated a slip deficit equal to the slip in the 1966 earthquake. A magnitude 4.7 earthquake in October 1992 brought the Parkfield experiment to its highest level of alert, with a 72-hour public warning that there was a 37% chance of a magnitude 6 event. However, this warning proved to be a false alarm. Most data collected at Parkfield indicate that strain is accumulating at a constant rate on this part of the San Andreas fault, but some interesting departures from this behavior have been recorded. Here we outline the scientific arguments bearing on when the next Parkfield earthquake is likely to occur and summarize geophysical observations to date.

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USGS2008

Strong tremor near Parkfield, CA, excited by the 2002 Denali Fault earthquake

We show clear evidence of non-volcanic tremor triggered by 2002 Mw7.8 Denali Fault earthquake near Parkfield. Triggered tremor is identified as bursts of high-frequency (∼2–8 Hz), non-impulsive seismic energy whose envelope is coherent among many stations and has the same periodicity as the passing surface waves. The tremor originates from at least three hypocenters near the San Andreas fault with differing frictional regimes, two in the creeping section and the other where the San Andreas is transitional between creeping and locked. All the sources originate below the seismogenic zone, suggesting that transitional frictional properties are necessary conditions for tremor generation. Tremor is excited by the Love waves when the San Andreas is sheared in a right-lateral sense, encouraging slip, and is absent when the San Andreas is sheared in a left-lateral sense, consistent with a simple frictional response to the driving stress.

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USGS2008

Finite-fault analysis of the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake using P nl waveforms

We apply a kinematic finite-fault inversion scheme to P nl displacement waveforms recorded at 14 regional stations (&Delta;<2&deg;) to recover the distribution of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake using both synthetic Green&rsquo;s functions (SGFs) calculated for one-dimensional (1D) crustal-velocity models and empirical Green&rsquo;s functions (EGFs) based on the recordings of a single M w 5.0 aftershock. Slip is modeled on a rectangular fault subdivided into 2&times;2 km subfaults assuming a constant rupture velocity and a 0.5 sec rise time. A passband filter of 0.1&ndash;0.5 Hz is applied to both data and subfault responses prior to waveform inversion. The SGF inversions are performed such that the final seismic moment is consistent with the known magnitude ( M w 6.0) of the earthquake. For these runs, it is difficult to reproduce the entire P nl waveform due to inaccuracies in the assumed crustal structure. Also, the misfit between observed and predicted vertical waveforms is similar in character for different rupture velocities, indicating that neither the rupture velocity nor the exact position of slip sources along the fault can be uniquely identified. The pattern of coseismic slip, however, compares well with independent source models derived using other data types, indicating that the SGF inversion procedure provides a general first-order estimate of the 2004 Parkfield rupture using the vertical P nl records. The best-constrained slip model is obtained using the single-aftershock EGF approach. In this case, the waveforms are very well reproduced for both vertical and horizontal components, suggesting that the method provides a powerful tool for estimating the distribution of coseismic slip using the regional P nl waveforms. The inferred slip model shows a localized patch of high slip (55 cm peak) near the hypocenter and a larger slip area (~50 cm peak) extending between 6 and 20 km to the northwest.

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USGS2007

Stability and uncertainty of finite-fault slip inversions: Application to the 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake

The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.

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USGS2006

Continuous borehole strain and pore pressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake: Implications for nucleation, fault response, earthquake prediction and tremor

Near-field observations of high-precision borehole strain and pore pressure, show no indication of coherent accelerating strain or pore pressure during the weeks to seconds before the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Minor changes in strain rate did occur at a few sites during the last 24 hr before the earthquake but these changes are neither significant nor have the form expected for strain during slip coalescence initiating fault failure. Seconds before the event, strain is stable at the 10 −11 level. Final prerupture nucleation slip in the hypocentral region is constrained to have a moment less than 2 × 10 12 N m ( M 2.2) and a source size less than 30 m. Ground displacement data indicate similar constraints. Localized rupture nucleation and runaway precludes useful prediction of damaging earthquakes. Coseismic dynamic strains of about 10 microstrain peak-to-peak were superimposed on volumetric strain offsets of about 0.5 microstrain to the northwest of the epicenter and about 0.2 microstrain to the southeast of the epicenter, consistent with right lateral slip. Observed strain and Global Positioning System ( gps ) offsets can be simply fit with 20 cm of slip between 4 and 10 km on a 20-km segment of the fault north of Gold Hill ( M 0 = 7 × 10 17 N m). Variable slip inversion models using gps data and seismic data indicate similar moments. Observed postseismic strain is 60% to 300% of the coseismic strain, indicating incomplete release of accumulated strain. No measurable change in fault zone compliance preceding or following the earthquake is indicated by stable earth tidal response. No indications of strain change accompany nonvolcanic tremor events reported prior to and following the earthquake.

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USGS2005

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

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USGS2005

Preliminary report on the 28 September 2004, M 6.0 Parkfield, California earthquake

The M w 6.0 Parkfield earthquake struck central California at 17:15:14 UTC on 28 September 2004. The epicenter was located 11 km southeast of the rural town of Parkfield, adjacent to Gold Hill and on the San Andreas Fault ( Figure 1 ). The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) reported that the hypocenter was located at 35.819°N, 120.364°W at a depth of 8.8 km. From the distribution of aftershocks and from models of seismograms, strain changes, and geodetic displacements from the earthquake, it appears that the rupture propagated to the northwest along the San Andreas Fault from its hypocenter beneath Gold Hill to Middle Mountain. Because of the earthquake's moderate size and the low population density, only minimal damage was reported, but strong ground motions of approximately 1 g were recorded at a few isolated points (Shakal et al. , 2005, this issue).

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