Geology topics

Research about Oklahoma

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Oklahoma.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Streamflow, base-flow, and precipitation trends and simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer on base flows upgradient from Lake Altus, western Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used five scenarios created from a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model (1980–2013) and historical streamflow records (1980–2022) to investigate the relation between groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer and inflows to Lake Altus from the North Fork Red River in western Oklahoma. The five scenarios were (1) a scaled-equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (2) a study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (3) a zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (4) a historical drought-threshold scenario, and (5) a base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario. For the scaled-EPS groundwater-withdrawal scenario, EPS groundwater withdrawals were often much higher than reported groundwater withdrawals and greatly decreased base flows for most scale factors. For the study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, base flows were reduced more but by smaller percentages during wet periods than during dry periods when scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals. For the zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals within selected zones with more groundwater withdrawals did not always affect base flows more than scaling reported groundwater withdrawals within zones with less groundwater withdrawals. For the historical drought-threshold scenario, curtailing groundwater withdrawals at the drought thresholds increased annual base flows to Lake Altus by about 1,169 to 3,665 acre-feet. For the base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario, the distance between a groundwater well and a stream was a major factor affecting base flow to the North Fork Red River when increasing groundwater withdrawals; however, spatially variable hydrologic properties and saturated-zone evapotranspiration could also affect the relation between base flows and groundwater withdrawals.

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USGS2026

3D Elevation Program—Oklahoma

Using 3D Elevation Program data, a modern illustration of each State's landscape showcases its elevation differences in vivid detail. Each State has been consistently adjusted and colorized according to its highest and lowest elevations, accentuating differences even in States with low relief. To further emphasize landforms, shaded relief has been added on top of the elevation colors.

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USGS2026

Toxicity of synergized permethrin residues in cattle dung to two temperate dung beetle species after application of common livestock pour-on treatment

Essential to pasture health, dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) provide key ecosystem services across natural and managed rangeland habitats. Insecticide residues in livestock dung can negatively impact dung beetle populations, and synergized pyrethroid products are commonly used to combat resistant pest fly populations. Here, permethrin residues were measured by GC-MS/MS in fresh cattle feces on Days −2 (pretreatment), 4, 8, 16, and 30 after the label rate application of a formulated pour-on treatment (a.i. 5% permethrin, 5% piperonyl butoxide [PBO]). Mean (± SE) measured permethrin concentrations were the highest on Day 4 at 1400 ± 360 ng of permethrin/g of dung (dry weight) with a maximum concentration of 2200 ng/g. Approximately, 99% of applied permethrin was excreted by Day 16, with no detection by Day 30. Field-collected dung was used in a 48-hour toxicity test and with three treatment groups (control [Day −2], low risk [Day 16], and high risk [Day 4]). Two temperate dung beetle species were tested: Onthophagus pennsylvanicus Harold and Canthon chalcites Haldeman. Mean (± SE) mortality of O. pennsylvanicus was 28 ± 5% and 58 ± 13% for low and high risk treatments, respectively. Mean (± SE) mortality of C. chalcites was lower than O. pennsylvanicus with 10 ± 4% and 40 ± 10% for low and high risk treatments, respectively. PBO was detected on Days 4 and 8, and the permethrin:PBO ratio was 10:1 on Day 4, i.e., high risk treatment. Data presented highlight episodic risks of pour-on products and support threshold-based, integrated pest management approaches.

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USGS2026

Biological and environmental drivers of early life fawn survival in a declining pronghorn population

Pronghorn Antilocapra americana occupy only a portion of their historical range and in Oklahoma occur at the eastern edge of the species' contemporary distribution. Monitoring has suggested pronghorn populations in Oklahoma have declined in recent years. We captured and collared 125 adult females across two winters, monitored them for signs of parturition during each subsequent spring, and then captured and radio-collared 70 fawns ≤ 4 days old. We assessed cause-specific mortality, estimated proportional survival, and visualized survival of fawns through 60 days of life with Kaplan–Meier curves. Nearly 87% of fawn mortalities were attributed to predation, with > 77% of predations attributed to coyotes Canis latrans . Our results indicated that fawn survival was lowest during the first 15 days of life, with 33% of fawns surviving to 15 days and 12% surviving to 60 days. We used known-fate models to evaluate the influence of biological factors (i.e. sex, mass, birth timing), environmental factors (i.e. ambient temperature, precipitation, vegetation), and temporal variation on the probability of early life (i.e. the first 15 days) survival. For each adult female with a collared fawn, we used female space-use patterns for 30 days before and 15 days after parturition to collect environmental covariates. Early life probability of survival was lower for larger fawns, those born earlier in the parturition period (i.e. earlier in the year relative to the range of parturition days), and those with higher pre-parturition temperatures; daily probability of survival decreased with time-since-parturition within the first 15 days of life. Our results indicate poor fawn survival, highlight a potential limitation of population growth, and can inform population management by identifying factors influencing early life fawn survival.

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USGS2026

Experimental lure design reveals the best attractants for increasing detection of multiple mesocarnivores

Many mesocarnivores have low detection rates that hinder practitioners' abilities to implement effective monitoring strategies. Using olfactory attractants (i.e. lures) may increase detection rates, but variation in effects among species is not well understood. Thus, investigating factors influencing detection of mesocarnivores, can inform and improve monitoring efforts. We evaluated the effects of lures and environmental covariates on the detection of plains spotted skunks Spilogale interrupta , striped skunks Mephitis mephitis , northern raccoons Procyon lotor , gray foxes Urocyon cinereoargenteus , coyotes Canis latrans , bobcats Lynx rufus and Virginia opossums Didelphis virginiana . We conducted surveys during January–May 2023 in southeast Oklahoma using motion-triggered cameras at randomly selected sites. We surveyed sites using a 4-camera cluster and leave-one-out lure design, where 3 cameras were randomly assigned 1 of 4 lures (i.e. skunk-based lure, fatty acid tablets, sweet lure or sardines) and 1 camera was a control (i.e. no lure). We analyzed species-specific detection data within an occupancy framework to determine the influence of lure combinations and environmental covariates (i.e. temperature, precipitation and moon illumination) on site-level detection patterns for each species. When lures influenced detection, we assessed species-specific preference among lures (and the control) within sites by comparing camera-level independent detections with Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn's tests at sites where the species was detected. The effect of lures varied among species; lure combinations influenced site-specific daily detection of plains spotted skunks, striped skunks, gray foxes, raccoons and bobcats, but did not affect detection of coyotes or opossums. One environmental covariate influenced detection of striped skunks (i.e. moon illumination), bobcats (i.e. temperature), and gray foxes (i.e. precipitation). Within sites, lure preference varied among species. Spotted skunks, gray foxes and raccoons preferred sardines whereas striped skunks preferred the skunk-based lure. Identifying lure preferences and effects of environmental factors can help optimize sampling and improve mesocarnivore monitoring efforts.

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USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates

The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in part because of uncertainty in lithology. Here, we study the 2011 Prague earthquake sequence, which includes repeating earthquakes in the Arbuckle group and the granitic basement, and compare them to laboratory experiments on samples of the Arbuckle and Troy granite (representative of the basement rock) (Okamoto et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030573 ). We find three spatially distinct groups of repeating earthquakes with different moment-recurrence behavior: (a) constant moment-recurrence time in the Arbuckle group, (b) scattered moment-recurrence time at the intersection of the foreshock-mainshock fault in the granitic basement, and (c) moment-predictable behavior outside of the foreshock-mainshock fault intersection also in the granitic basement. Our observation of stagnant healing for repeating sequences in the Arbuckle group is consistent with laboratory observations of low healing rates for moderately high pore fluid pressures in Arbuckle samples. For the moment-predictable group, the source radius that is required in order to match healing rates is consistent with source radius estimations when taking into account reasonable attenuation of the P- pulse width. Overall, we observe diverse healing behaviors in the seismic families that are consistent with laboratory healing rates, providing seismic evidence that contact-scale frictional mechanisms are relevant to large-scale earthquake dynamics.

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USGS2025

To heal or not to heal?: 1. The effect of pore fluid pressure on the frictional healing behavior of lithologies in Oklahoma

The competition between fault healing (i.e., re-strengthening) and fault loading determines the timing and magnitude of fault failure within the seismic cycle. Repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates, however, it is difficult to link laboratory studies of frictional healing and observed healing rates from repeating earthquakes in part because of uncertainty in lithology at depth. Due to well-constrained and relatively simple geology, earthquakes in Oklahoma can be linked to the granitic basement rock and to the Arbuckle Group, which is primarily composed of dolomite at earthquake depths. Here, we conduct friction experiments to measure healing rates of the two earthquake-bearing lithologies at confining pressures representative of earthquake depths and pore pressures ranging from 0% to 80% of the confining pressure. We measure frictional healing by executing slide-hold-slide tests with hold times ranging from 3 s to 3000 s. The friction experiments on the Troy Granite indicate that pore fluid pressure does not greatly affect healing rate. On the other hand, the dolomite of the Arbuckle Group exhibits decreased healing with increased pore fluid pressure, with weakening at the highest pore pressure. We hypothesize that this is due to an increase in dissolution of dolomite at high pore pressures/low effective normal stress. These healing rates are used in the companion paper to understand the moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in Prague, Oklahoma. This work has implications for possible enhanced dissolution and weakening behavior of the Arbuckle Group during wastewater injection activities.

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USGS2025

Harmless tags or hazardous ads? Investigating the potential for ear tags to increase predation on neonatal ungulates

Studies involving individually marked animals provide insights predicated on the assumption marked individuals are accurate models of their unmarked counterparts. Taxa-specific and marker-specific examinations are needed to determine if marked animals are suitable models for the parameter(s) being measured. Our objective was to determine if brightly colored ear tags influenced the probability of predation for neonatal ungulates. We captured 94 neonatal pronghorn (Antilocapra americana (Ord, 1815)), fitted each neonate with a tracking collar, and attached a yellow ear tag to 49 (52.1%) of the captured neonates. We monitored the survival of each neonate during 2023–2024 in Oklahoma, USA. Predation was the leading cause of mortality during our monitoring period and accounted for 29 (82.9%) of the 35 mortalities with a known cause. Coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) were the predominant predator of neonatal pronghorn in our study area. Presence of a yellow ear tag seemingly did not influence the probability of predation, even though coyotes can distinguish yellow objects from most natural backgrounds. A larger sample size may be needed to validate our results, but neonatal ungulates with an ear tag appear to be accurate models of neonatal ungulates without an ear tag when examining predation risk.

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USGS2025

Land application of drill waste: A scope analysis

Drilling fluid waste land application, a process where drilling wastes are spread and tilled into the land surface, has become common in some petroleum-producing states, however, the potential benefits and risks of this practice are not well studied. Drilling fluids can be water- or oil-based and can have high concentrations of total soluble salts and total petroleum hydrocarbons. Comprehensive chemical characterization of these fluids is not well documented in the literature, and the extent of land application is largely unknown. We hypothesized that the land application of drill waste would fluctuate over time due to economic factors. To begin to understand the extent of historical and potential future land application, we analyzed data from over 5,800 drilling fluid land application permits collected by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission for years 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015–2020. During the years studied, drilling fluid wastes were applied to more than 250,000 acres in Oklahoma, with over 54,000 thousand barrels (Mbbl) of liquids and nearly 21,000 Mbbl of solids applied. Land application is widespread (occurring in 59/77 counties), however recent drilling activity, land availability, and the economics of transportation have created conditions favorable for land application specifically in the Anadarko Basin. Land application can co-occur with sensitive areas, such as important groundwater and surface-water drinking sources and agricultural fields used for subsistence or feed crop production. Our approach for quantifying the extent of land application, along with further chemical characterization studies, can aid operators and land managers who are considering this practice in assessing the associated benefits and risks.

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USGS2025

Characterization of the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater-flow system, geochemistry, and aquifer hydraulic properties of the shallow groundwater system in the Wilcox and Lorraine process areas of the Wilcox Oil Company Superfund site near Bristow, Oklahoma, 2022

The Wilcox Oil Company Superfund site (hereinafter referred to as “the site”) was formerly an oil refinery northeast of Bristow in Creek County, Oklahoma. Historical refinery operations contaminated the soil, surface water, streambed sediments, alluvium, and groundwater with refined and stored products at the site. The Wilcox and Lorraine process areas are where the highest concentrations of volatile organic compounds, semivolatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and trace elements (including metals) (collectively hereinafter referred to as “contaminants”) were measured in a local shallow perched groundwater system within the alluvium (hereinafter referred to as the “alluvial aquifer”) at the site during previous site assessments. In order to understand the potential migration of contaminants through the soil and groundwater in these areas, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, investigated aquifer characteristics of the alluvial aquifer in the Wilcox and Lorraine process areas of the site to (1) document hydraulic conductivity and other aquifer characteristics of the alluvial aquifer that govern contaminant fate and transport, (2) describe the geospatial extent and concentration of the contaminants in the alluvial aquifer in the Wilcox and Lorraine process areas, and (3) describe the geochemical controls pertaining to oxidation and reduction governing the fate and transport and the degradation potential of contaminants in the groundwater. Various data were compiled and collected to evaluate the aquifer characteristics at the site including the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater-flow system, geochemistry, and hydraulic properties of the aquifer. A total of 20 new (2022) groundwater monitoring wells were installed at the site to collect data used to supplement groundwater-level altitude and groundwater-quality data collected from older, existing groundwater monitoring wells and piezometers. Data compiled and collected for the study were used to evaluate the characteristics of the alluvial aquifer at the site. These aquifer characteristics are defined by the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater-flow system, geochemistry, and hydraulic properties of the aquifer.

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USGS2025

Hydrogeology, water budget, and simulated groundwater availability in the Salt Fork Arkansas River and Chikaskia River alluvial aquifers, northern Oklahoma, 1980–2020

The 1973 Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute §82–1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations of the State’s aquifers to determine the maximum annual yield for each groundwater basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an updated hydrologic investigation of the Salt Fork Arkansas River and Chikaskia River alluvial aquifers in northern Oklahoma for the study period spanning 1980–2020 and evaluated the simulated effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater flow and availability in the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. A hydrogeologic framework and conceptual model were developed to guide the development of a numerical model. Three groundwater-availability scenarios were evaluated by using the calibrated numerical model, which was focused on the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates for the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer under normal recharge conditions were about 0.63, 0.58, and 0.57 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Projected 50-year groundwater withdrawal scenarios were used to simulate the effects of modified well withdrawal rates. Because well withdrawals were less than 2 percent of the calibrated numerical-model water budget, changes to the well groundwater withdrawal rates had little effect on simulated Salt Fork Arkansas River base flows and groundwater storage in the Salt Fork Arkansas River alluvial aquifer. A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the potential effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage. Groundwater storage at the end of the hypothetical drought period was 14.5 percent less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model without the simulated drought.

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USGS2025

Interspecific effects of invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) on native nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus)

Biological invasions pose significant risks to ecosystems and native species. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are a highly detrimental invasive species in North America, directly and indirectly affecting native species. Co-occurrence of wild pigs and native species may lead to interspecific interactions that alter ecological communities. Accordingly, we investigated spatial and temporal factors influencing detection and occupancy of Eurasian Wild Pig and Nine-banded Armadillo ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) before examining interspecific effects. We analyzed camera-trap data collected from August to September 2021 using a hierarchical modeling framework to estimate detection and occupancy of both species individually (single-species analyses) and concurrently (conditional co-occurrence analyses). We observed higher Wild Pig detection rates and space use in late summer and in areas with greater riparian cover, respectively. Armadillo detection increased linearly throughout our sampling season and in response to precipitation. Moreover, armadillo detection was 3.5 to 5.1× higher at sites used by wild pigs, regardless of whether wild pigs were detected during a survey period. Occupancy of armadillo was best explained by a quadratic trend in site elevation but did not depend on the presence of wild pigs. Our results indicate that wild pigs may influence armadillo detection (or site-use intensity), but not occupancy, therefore revealing nuanced interspecific interactions. Between species, we observed high overlap in diel activity but significantly different activity peaks, with armadillos being strictly nocturnal and wild pigs being crepuscular but with more cathemeral activity, suggesting that fine-scale temporal partitioning may have occurred. Our results provide insights into the influence of a large-bodied and destructive invasive species (Wild Pig) on a smaller, ecologically important native species (Nine-banded Armadillo).

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USGS2025

Habitat and predator influences on the spatial ecology of nine-banded armadillos

Mesopredator suppression has implications for community structure, biodiversity, and ecosystem function, but mesopredators with physical defenses may not avoid apex predators. We investigated nine-banded armadillos ( Dasypus novemcinctus ) in southwestern Oklahoma (USA) to evaluate if a species with physical defenses was influenced by a dominant predator, the coyote ( Canis latrans ). We sampled nine-banded armadillos and coyotes with motion-activated cameras. We used single-species and conditional two-species occupancy models to assess the influences of environmental factors and coyotes on nine-banded armadillo occurrence and site-use intensity (i.e., detection). We used camera-based detections to characterize the diel activity of each species and their overlap. Nine-banded armadillo occupancy was greater at sites closer to cover, with lower slopes, and further from water, whereas coyote space use was greater at higher elevations; both species were positively associated with recent burns. Nine-banded armadillo occurrence was not influenced by coyotes, but site-use intensity was suppressed by the presence of coyotes. Nine-banded armadillos (strictly nocturnal) and coyotes (predominantly nocturnal) had a high overlap in summer diel activity. Nine-banded armadillos are ecosystem engineers but are often considered a threat to species of concern and/or a nuisance. Thus, understanding the role of interspecific interactions on nine-banded armadillos has important implications for conservation and management.

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USGS2025

Overwinter and prespawning movements by a vulnerable freshwater pelagophilic minnow

The decline of pelagophil minnows is related to river fragmentation across the southern Great Plains landscape. Because we know little about pelagophil movement patterns and timing, we aimed to quantify the movements of the vulnerable Arkansas River shiner (ARS) during the winter (November–March) and prespawning (April–June) seasons. We tagged 4233 ARS using visible implant elastomer, passive integrated transponder, or p-Chip micro-transponder tags in 2018–2020. We sampled to recapture tagged fish weekly during the winter and biweekly during the spring. Tagged fish exhibited a downstream movement bias and movement was weakly related to increasing temperature, discharge, and photoperiod during winter, however most of the variability was explained by a random individual effect. Larger individuals moved greater distances than smaller fish. Upstream movements by a migratory portion of the population appeared to begin around late February based on the presence of fish at previously unoccupied sites. However, the first long-distance (30-km) upstream movement by a tagged fish was documented in late May. We show evidence that some ARS may be resident fish at sites throughout winter and spring of multiple years. To conserve freshwater pelagophil minnows, our results indicate water management strategies improving river connectivity in late winter through the spawning season may benefit spawning by migratory individuals, whereas lateral connectivity might benefit the resident portion of the population. Research efforts under experimental flows could provide insight to improved recovery options.

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USGS2025

Comparison of hydrologic data and water budgets between 2003–08 and 2018–23 for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, south-central Oklahoma

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer is divided spatially into three parts (eastern, central, and western). The largest groundwater withdrawals are from the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, which provides water to approximately 39,000 people in Ada and Sulphur, Oklahoma, and surrounding areas. The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, including the eastern part, is designated a sole source aquifer for its service area. Based primarily on data collected between 2003 and 2008, a series of comprehensive hydrologic studies of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer was published to provide the information necessary to perform groundwater-flow model simulations so that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board could determine how much water could be withdrawn from the aquifer while maintaining flow to springs and streams. As part of the Phase 1 studies, an aquifer water budget was developed from a numerical model for the period 2003–08. For this report, Phase 1 refers to the 2003–08 data collection period, although for some of the analyses, data collected prior to 2003 were used to inform model development work. Allocation of water from this aquifer was then established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in 2013. Additional well-spacing rules were also established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board for sensitive sole source groundwater basins. To determine how the water budget for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer has changed over time, recently collected hydrologic data (2018–23) were compared to data collected during 2003–08. The analysis of changes in the aquifer water budget from 2003–08 to 2018–23 could help resource managers better understand changes in the overall balance of water in storage and the potential effects on streamflow, changes in groundwater levels, and the effects of different water uses in the aquifer area on available water in the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer and streams overlying the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer.

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USGS2025

New distributional record of the federally threatened Rabbitsfoot Mussel (Theliderma cylindrica) in Oklahoma

Sampling conducted from May to August of 2024 yielded new distributional records for the federally threatened Theliderma cylindrica (Rabbitsfoot) in the Caney River, OK. We found 4 live individuals, representing at least 2 age classes, ∼7 km upstream of the confluence with the Verdigris River. This report is the first documentation of live Rabbitsfoot in the Caney River, where the species was previously known only from weathered shells. This finding extends the known distribution of Rabbitsfoot into a system previously unrecognized as part of its range.

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USGS2024

Reduced injection rates and shallower depths mitigated induced seismicity in Oklahoma

The proximity of wastewater disposal to the Precambrian basement is a critical factor influencing induced earthquake rates in the Central United States, but the impact of reducing injection depths has not been widely demonstrated. Beginning in 2015, state regulatory efforts in Oklahoma and Kansas mandated that wells injecting into the lower Arbuckle Group, a basal sedimentary unit, be backfilled with cement (i.e. “plugged back”) so that they inject into shallower formations. This plug back activity gives us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationship between injection depth and induced seismicity rate. To evaluate the impact that decreased injection rates and plug backs had on the seismicity rates, we create a suite of rate-state earthquake models. Observed seismicity rates are best fit when only lower Arbuckle volumes are considered, suggesting the lower Arbuckle injectors were primarily responsible for the seismicity and that plug backs were effective at isolating the injected volumes to shallower formations. Our models demonstrate that if these wells had not been plugged back, seismicity rates would be multiple times larger than they are today. We find that the combination of well plug backs and injection volume decreases can be effective strategies for reducing induced seismicity rates.

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USGS2024

Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma

To better understand the relation between climate variability and future groundwater resources in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir in western Oklahoma, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model and climate-model data to investigate changes in base flow and reservoir storage by evaluating three scenarios. The three projected climate scenarios were (1) a central-tendency scenario, (2) a warmer/drier scenario, and (3) a less-warm/wetter scenario. To estimate future base flow and groundwater availability in western Oklahoma, specifically in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer, downscaled climate-model data from 231 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections coupled with a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model were used to compare the effects of different climate scenarios on the aquifer. Changes in base flow and groundwater-level elevations during a 30-year baseline scenario (1985–2014) and the three 30-year projected climate scenarios (2050–79) under central-tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climatic conditions were assessed by using the calibrated model. In the simulations, the amount of base flow and reservoir storage declined in the central-tendency and warmer/drier scenarios compared to the amount of base flow and reservoir storage under historical climatic conditions (baseline scenario). Mean annual change in reservoir storage decreased from the baseline scenario the most in the warmer/drier scenario, followed by the central-tendency scenario, but increased in the less-warm/wetter scenario compared to the baseline scenario. At the end of the simulation period (2079), the largest magnitude differences in groundwater-level elevations in all three projected climate scenarios relative to the baseline scenario occurred upstream from Foss Reservoir. Results from incorporating downscaled climate projections into localized numerical groundwater-flow models can highlight potential future changes in and implications for groundwater resources and availability.

Oklahoma↗