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Research about New Mexico

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including New Mexico.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Mapping tree density in forests of the southwestern USA using Landsat 8 data

The increase of tree density in forests of the American Southwest promotes extreme fire events, understory biodiversity losses, and degraded habitat conditions for many wildlife species. To ameliorate these changes, managers and scientists have begun planning treatments aimed at reducing fuels and increasing understory biodiversity. However, spatial variability in tree density across the landscape is not well-characterized, and if better known, could greatly influence planning efforts. We used reflectance values from individual Landsat 8 bands (bands 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) and calculated vegetation indices (difference vegetation index, simple ratios, and normalized vegetation indices) to estimate tree density in an area planned for treatment in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, characterized by multiple vegetation types and a complex topography. Because different vegetation types have different spectral signatures, we derived models with multiple predictor variables for each vegetation type, rather than using a single model for the entire project area, and compared the model-derived values to values collected from on-the-ground transects. Among conifer-dominated areas (73% of the project area), the best models (as determined by corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc)) included Landsat bands 2, 3, 4, and 7 along with simple ratios, normalized vegetation indices, and the difference vegetation index ( R 2 values for ponderosa: 0.47, piñon-juniper: 0.52, and spruce-fir: 0.66). On the other hand, in aspen-dominated areas (9% of the project area), the best model included individual bands 4 and 2, simple ratio, and normalized vegetation index ( R 2 value: 0.97). Most areas dominated by ponderosa, pinyon-juniper, or spruce-fir had more than 100 trees per hectare. About 54% of the study area has medium to high density of trees (100–1000 trees/hectare), and a small fraction (4.5%) of the area has very high density (>1000 trees/hectare). Our results provide a better understanding of tree density for identifying areas in need of treatment and planning for more effective treatment. Our analysis also provides an integrated method of estimating tree density across complex landscapes that could be useful for further restoration planning.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Geomorphic processes responsible for decadal-scale arroyo changes, Rio Puerco, New Mexico

The channel and arroyo of the Rio Puerco have continued to evolve since incision in the late 1800s. Resurveys of channel cross sections and aerial imagery over time indicate that between the 1970s and 1990s, the upstream reaches (type 1 morphology) of the Rio Puerco have continued to undergo construction of an incipient inner floodplain by means of vertical aggradation while simultaneously developing a narrower, but relatively shallow, channel. Downstream reaches (type 2 morphology) also show progressive channel width decrease, construction of a well-vegetated and mature inner floodplain, and deposition in the active channel, leading to an increase in the streambed elevation. Trends in rainfall and streamflow cannot explain the observed decadal patterns in sediment deposition in the Rio Puerco. Analysis of streamflow shows that a large percentage of runoff originating in the upper watershed is entirely infiltrated into the streambed and floodplains between upstream and downstream reaches. With suspended-sediment concentrations reaching 500,000 mg/L, the loss of streamflow results in sediment deposition. Peak streamflows are decreasing in the Rio Puerco near its mouth at Bernardo, New Mexico. Hydrographs were modeled using a 71-yr-old monumented channel cross section in the lower reaches (Highway 6) surveyed in 1936 and resurveyed in 2007. Model outputs show that attenuation of peak flow can occur from progressive changes in channel morphology and vegetation. Decreasing peak flows, transmission losses, and development of an inner floodplain within the widened arroyo all interact to increase sediment deposition over time. Consequently, increased sediment deposition has resulted in decreased sediment loads and sediment concentrations in downstream reaches. Resurveys of channels in downstream reaches confirm that the channel bed is aggrading. At the oldest surveyed cross section (Highway 6 surveyed in 1936 and resurveyed in 2007), the channel bed has aggraded 6 m, and at its long-term rate of filling, deposition of sediment could fill the entire arroyo cross section in 150 yr. The Rio Puerco has incised and aggraded several times in the late Quaternary. Results of this study show that the twentieth-century aggradation of the Rio Puerco is driven by intrinsic processes that involve a positive feedback relation among channel morphology, vegetation, climate, streamflow, infiltration, and sediment loads.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico

Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

A shifting rift—Geophysical insights into the evolution of Rio Grande rift margins and the Embudo transfer zone near Taos, New Mexico

We present a detailed example of how a subbasin develops adjacent to a transfer zone in the Rio Grande rift. The Embudo transfer zone in the Rio Grande rift is considered one of the classic examples and has been used as the inspiration for several theoretical models. Despite this attention, the history of its development into a major rift structure is poorly known along its northern extent near Taos, New Mexico. Geologic evidence for all but its young rift history is concealed under Quaternary cover. We focus on understanding the pre-Quaternary evidence that is in the subsurface by integrating diverse pieces of geologic and geophysical information. As a result, we present a substantively new understanding of the tectonic configuration and evolution of the northern extent of the Embudo fault and its adjacent subbasin. We integrate geophysical, borehole, and geologic information to interpret the subsurface configuration of the rift margins formed by the Embudo and Sangre de Cristo faults and the geometry of the subbasin within the Taos embayment. Key features interpreted include (1) an imperfect D-shaped subbasin that slopes to the east and southeast, with the deepest point ∼2 km below the valley floor located northwest of Taos at ∼36° 26′N latitude and 105° 37′W longitude; (2) a concealed Embudo fault system that extends as much as 7 km wider than is mapped at the surface, wherein fault strands disrupt or truncate flows of Pliocene Servilleta Basalt and step down into the subbasin with a minimum of 1.8 km of vertical displacement; and (3) a similar, wider than expected (5–7 km) zone of stepped, west-down normal faults associated with the Sangre de Cristo range front fault. From the geophysical interpretations and subsurface models, we infer relations between faulting and flows of Pliocene Servilleta Basalt and older, buried basaltic rocks that, combined with geologic mapping, suggest a revised rift history involving shifts in the locus of fault activity as the Taos subbasin developed. We speculate that faults related to north-striking grabens at the end of Laramide time formed the first west-down master faults. The Embudo fault may have initiated in early Miocene southwest of the Taos region. Normal-oblique slip on these early fault strands likely transitioned in space and time to dominantly left-lateral slip as the Embudo fault propagated to the northeast. During and shortly after eruption of Servilleta Basalt, proto-Embudo fault strands were active along and parallel to the modern, NE-aligned Rio Pueblo de Taos, ∼4–7 km basinward of the modern, mapped Embudo fault zone. Faults along the northeastern subbasin margin had northwest strikes for most of the period of subbasin formation and were located ∼5–7 km basinward of the modern Sangre de Cristo fault. The locus of fault activity shifted to more northerly striking faults within 2 km of the modern range front sometime after Servilleta volcanism had ceased. The northerly faults may have linked with the northeasterly proto-Embudo faults at this time, concurrent with the development of N-striking Los Cordovas normal faults within the interior of the subbasin. By middle Pleistocene(?) time, the Los Cordovas faults had become inactive, and the linked Embudo–Sangre de Cristo fault system migrated to the south, to the modern range front.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Characterizing local variability in long‐period horizontal tilt noise

Horizontal seismic data are dominated by atmospherically induced tilt noise at long periods (i.e., 30 s and greater). Tilt noise limits our ability to use horizontal data for sensitive seismological studies such as observing free earth modes. To better understand the local spatial variability of long‐period horizontal noise, we observe horizontal noise during quiet time periods in the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) underground vault using four small‐aperture array configurations. Each array comprises eight Streckeisen STS‐2 broadband seismometers. We analyze the spectral content of the data using power spectral density and magnitude‐squared coherence (γ2‐coherence). Our results show a high degree of spatial variability and frequency dependence in the long‐period horizontal wavefield. The variable nature of long‐period horizontal noise in the ASL vault suggests that it might be highly local in nature and not easily characterized by simple physical models when overall noise levels are low, making it difficult to identify locations in the vault with lower horizontal noise. This variability could be limiting our ability to apply coherence analysis for estimating horizontal sensor self‐noise and could also complicate various indirect methods for removing long‐period horizontal noise (e.g., collocated rotational sensor or microbarograph).

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization and evaluation of two arroyos for managed aquifer recharge by surface infiltration in the Pojoaque River Basin, Santa Fe County, New Mexico, 2014–15

In order to provide long-term storage of diverted surface water from the Rio Grande as part of the Aamodt water rights settlement, managed aquifer recharge by surface infiltration in Pojoaque River Basin arroyos was proposed as an option. The initial hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization of two arroyos located within the Pojoaque River Basin was performed in 2014 and 2015 in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation to evaluate the potential suitability of these two arroyos as sites for managed aquifer recharge through surface infiltration. The selected reaches were high-gradient (average 3.0–3.5 percent) braided channels filled with unconsolidated sand and gravel-sized deposits that were generally 30–50 feet thick. Saturation was not observed in the unconsolidated channel sands in four subsurface borings but was found at 7–60 feet below the contact between the unconsolidated channel sands and the bedrock. The poorly to well-cemented alluvial deposits that make up the bedrock underlying the unconsolidated channel material is the Tesuque Formation. The individual beds of the Tesuque Formation are reported to be highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and the bedrock at the site was observed to have variable moisture and large changes in lithology. Surface electrical-resistivity geophysical survey methods showed a sharp contrast between the electrically resistive unconsolidated channel sands and the highly conductive bedrock; however, because of the high conductivity, the resistivity methods were not able to image the water table or preferential flow paths (if they existed) in the bedrock. Infiltration rates measured by double-ring and bulk infiltration tests on a variety of channel morphologies in the study reaches were extremely large (9.7–94.5 feet per day), indicating that the channels could potentially accommodate as much as 6.6 cubic feet per second of applied water without generating surface runoff out of the reach; however, the small volume available for storage in the unconsolidated channel sands (about 410 acre-feet in the east arroyo and about 190 acre-feet in the west arroyo) and the potential for the infiltrating water to preferentially flow over the bedrock contact and out of the reach present a challenge for storing water. Although a detailed assessment of the infiltration rate of the Tesuque Formation is beyond the scope of this investigation, one double-ring infiltrometer test was conducted on an outcrop, resulting in an estimated infiltration rate of about 4 feet per day. The shallow groundwater observed in this investigation was determined to be recharged locally on the basis of groundwater elevations and geochemical and isotopic signatures. The channel sands and shallow bedrock were observed to be weathered, indicating contact with oxic groundwater following deposition. This observation was supported by whole-rock elemental analysis and mineralogy of several core samples. The downward groundwater gradient between the shallow wells and those wells screened at greater depths suggests that the shallow groundwater is recharged by local precipitation and has the potential to migrate to the deeper aquifer units. The two age-dating tracers measured in this investigation, however, demonstrate that the shallow groundwater flow paths are very slow and that the deeper flow paths are likely part of a larger regional system. The composition of the shallow, native groundwater suggests that storing water diverted from the Rio Grande is not likely to leach constituents of concern that would cause the stored water to exceed health-based U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Rates of sediment supply to arroyos from upland erosion determined using in situ produced cosmogenic 10 Be and 26 Al

Using 10 Be and 26 Al measured in sediment and bedrock, we quantify rates of upland erosion and sediment supply to a small basin in northwestern New Mexico. This and many other similar basins in the southwestern United States have been affected by cycles of arroyo incision and backfilling several times in the past few millennia. The sediment generation (275 ± 65 g m −2 yr −1 ) and bedrock equivalent lowering rates (102 ± 24 m myr −1 ) we determine are sufficient to support at least three arroyo cycles in the past 3,000 years, consistent with rates calculated from a physical sediment budget within the basin and regional rates determined using other techniques. Nuclide concentrations measured in different sediment sources and reservoirs suggest that the arroyo is a good spatial and temporal integrator of sediment and associated nuclide concentrations from throughout the basin, that the basin is in steady-state, and that nuclide concentration is independent of sediment grain size. Differences between nuclide concentrations measured in sediment sources and reservoirs reflect sediment residence times and indicate that subcolluvial bedrock weathering on hillslopes supplies more sediment to the basin than erosion of exposed bedrock.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

A non-destructive method for dating human remains

The skeletal remains of several Native Americans were recovered in an eroded state from a creek bank in northeastern New Mexico. Subsequently stored in a nearby museum, the remains became lost for almost 36 years. In a recent effort to repatriate the remains, it was necessary to fit them into a cultural chronology in order to determine the appropriate tribe(s) for consultation pursuant to the Native American Grave Protection and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA). Because the remains were found in an eroded context with no artifacts or funerary objects, their age was unknown. Having been asked to avoid destructive dating methods such as radiocarbon dating, the authors used Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) to date the sediments embedded in the cranium. The OSL analyses yielded reliable dates between A.D. 1415 and A.D. 1495. Accordingly, we conclude that the remains were interred somewhat earlier than A.D. 1415, but no later than A.D. 1495. We believe the remains are from individuals ancestral to the Ute Mouache Band, which is now being contacted for repatriation efforts. Not only do our methods contribute to the immediate repatriation efforts, they provide archaeologists with a versatile, non-destructive, numerical dating method that can be used in many burial contexts.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon ( Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores ( I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO 2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO 2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Impacts of mesquite distribution on seasonal space use of lesser prairie-chickens

Loss of native grasslands by anthropogenic disturbances has reduced availability and connectivity of habitat for many grassland species. A primary threat to contiguous grasslands is the encroachment of woody vegetation, which is spurred by disturbances that take on many forms from energy development, fire suppression, and grazing. These disturbances are exacerbated by natural- and human-driven cycles of changes in climate punctuated by drought and desertification conditions. Encroachment of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) into the prairies of southeastern New Mexico has potentially limited habitat for numerous grassland species, including lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) . To determine the magnitude of impacts of distribution of mesquite and how lesser prairie-chickens respond to mesquite presence on the landscape in southeastern New Mexico, we evaluated seasonal space use of lesser prairie-chickens in the breeding and nonbreeding seasons. We derived several remotely sensed spatial metrics to characterize the distribution of mesquite. We then used these data to create population-level resource utilization functions and predict intensity of use of lesser prairie-chickens across our study area. Home ranges were smaller in the breeding season compared with the nonbreeding season; however, habitat use was similar across seasons. During both seasons, lesser prairie-chickens used areas closer to leks and largely avoided areas with mesquite. Relative to the breeding season, during the nonbreeding season habitat use suggested a marginal increase in mesquite within areas of low intensity of use, yet aversion to mesquite was strong in areas of medium to high intensity of use. To our knowledge, our study is the first to demonstrate a negative behavioral response by lesser prairie-chickens to woody encroachment in native grasslands. To mitigate one of the possible limiting factors for lesser prairie-chickens, we suggest future conservation strategies be employed by land managersto reduce mesquite abundance in the southern portion of their current range.

New Mexico↗
USGS2017

Diet composition, quality and overlap of sympatric American pronghorn and gemsbok

Species with a long evolutionary history of sympatry often have mechanisms for resource partitioning that reduce competition. However, introduced non-native ungulates often compete with native ungulates and competitive effects can be exacerbated in arid regions due to low primary productivity. Our objectives were to characterize diet composition, quality, and overlap between American pronghorn Antilocapra americana and introduced non-native gemsbok Oryx gazella in southcentral New Mexico, USA. Severe drought occurred between 2010 and 2011, which allowed us to evaluate drought impacts on diet composition, quality, and overlap. Using feces collected from each species, we assessed diet composition and overlap with microhistological analysis and diet quality using fecal nitrogen (FN) and fecal 2,6-diaminopimelic acid (FDAPA). Pronghorn diet was primarily composed of shrubs in the cool—dry season (64.5%) then shifted to forbs in the warm—dry (64.7%) and warm—wet (54.1%) seasons. Pronghorn diet also shifted to shrubs during drought (50.7%). Gemsbok diets were evenly distributed across forage types. Fifty-three percent of the species of plants consumed by pronghorn and gemsbok were shared; diet overlap averaged 0.44 ± 0.06 (SE) and 0.49 ± 0.06 during the warm—dry seasons of 2010 and 2011, respectively. During drought, key forage species shared between pronghorn and gemsbok included yucca Yucca spp., prickly pear Opuntia spp., globemallow Sphaeralcea coccinea and horsenettle Solanum elaeagnifolium, comprising 50% of the pronghorn and 40% of the gemsbok diets. Fecal nitrogen and FDAPA decreased in pronghorn by 26% and 27% between the warm—dry season of 2010 (non-drought) and the warm—dry season of 2011 (drought), respectively. Drought had little effect on dietary quality for gemsbok. Gemsbok can use forage with lower nutritional content giving them an advantage over pronghorn, particularly during drought periods. Pronghorn are more dependent upon precipitation, which may be important to consider in light of increasing drought frequency associated with climate change.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Application of activity sensors for estimating behavioral patterns

The increasing use of Global Positioning System (GPS) collars in habitat selection studies provides large numbers of precise location data points with reduced field effort. However, inclusion of activity sensors in many GPS collars also grants the potential to remotely estimate behavioral state. Thus, only using GPS collars to collect location data belies their full capabilities. Coupling behavioral state with location data would allow researchers and managers to refine habitat selection models by using diel behavioral state changes to partition fine-scale temporal shifts in habitat selection. We tested the capability of relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors to estimate behavior throughout diel periods using free-ranging female elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, USA, 2013–2014. Collars recorded cumulative number of movements (hits) per 15-min recording period immediately preceding GPS fixes at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 hr. We measured diel behavioral patterns of focal elk, categorizing active (i.e., foraging, traveling, vigilant, grooming) and inactive (i.e., resting) states. Active behaviors (foraging, traveling) produced more average hits (0.87 ± 0.69 hits/min, 4.0 ± 2.2 hits/min, respectively; 95% CI) and inactive (resting) behavior fewer hits (−1.1 ± 0.61 95% CI). We differentiated active and inactive behavioral states with a bootstrapped threshold of 5.9 ± 3.9 hits/15-min recording period. Mean cumulative activity-sensor hits corresponded with observed diel behavioral patterns: hits increased during crepuscular (0600, 1800 hr) observations when elk were most active (0000–0600 hr: d = 0.19; 1200–1800 hr: d = 0.64) and decreased during midday and night (0000 hr, 1200 hr) when elk were least active (1800–0000 hr: d = −0.39; 0600–1200 hr: d = −0.43). Even using relatively unsophisticated GPS-collar activity sensors, managers can remotely estimate behavioral states, approximate diel behavioral patterns, and potentially complement location data in developing habitat selection models.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Water-level data for the Albuquerque Basin and adjacent areas, central New Mexico, period of record through September 30, 2015

The Albuquerque Basin, located in central New Mexico, is about 100 miles long and 25–40 miles wide. The basin is hydrologically defined as the extent of consolidated and unconsolidated deposits of Tertiary and Quaternary age that encompasses the structural Rio Grande Rift between San Acacia to the south and Cochiti Lake to the north. Drinking-water supplies throughout the basin were obtained solely from groundwater resources until December 2008, when the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA) began treatment and distribution of surface water from the Rio Grande through the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project. A 20-percent population increase in the basin from 1990 to 2000 and a 22-percent population increase from 2000 to 2010 may have resulted in an increased demand for water in areas within the basin. An initial network of wells was established by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Albuquerque from April 1982 through September 1983 to monitor changes in groundwater levels throughout the Albuquerque Basin. In 1983, this network consisted of 6 wells with analog-to-digital recorders and 27 wells where water levels were measured monthly. The network currently (2015) consists of 124 wells and piezometers. (A piezometer is a specialized well open to a specific depth in the aquifer, often of small diameter and nested with other piezometers open to different depths.) The USGS, in cooperation with the ABCWUA, currently (2015) measures and reports water levels from the 124 wells and piezometers in the network; this report presents water-level data collected by USGS personnel at those 124 sites through water year 2015 (October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2015).

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Efficacy of GPS cluster analysis for predicting carnivory sites of a wide-ranging omnivore: the American black bear

The capacity to describe and quantify predation by large carnivores expanded considerably with the advent of GPS technology. Analyzing clusters of GPS locations formed by carnivores facilitates the detection of predation events by identifying characteristics which distinguish predation sites. We present a performance assessment of GPS cluster analysis as applied to the predation and scavenging of an omnivore, the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), on ungulate prey and carrion. Through field investigations of 6854 GPS locations from 24 individual bears, we identified 54 sites where black bears formed a cluster of locations while predating or scavenging elk ( Cervus elaphus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), or cattle ( Bos spp.). We developed models for three data sets to predict whether a GPS cluster was formed at a carnivory site vs. a non-carnivory site (e.g., bed sites or non-ungulate foraging sites). Two full-season data sets contained GPS locations logged at either 3-h or 30-min intervals from April to November, and a third data set contained 30-min interval data from April through July corresponding to the calving period for elk. Longer fix intervals resulted in the detection of fewer carnivory sites. Clusters were more likely to be carnivory sites if they occurred in open or edge habitats, if they occurred in the early season, if the mean distance between all pairs of GPS locations within the cluster was less, and if the cluster endured for a longer period of time. Clusters were less likely to be carnivory sites if they were initiated in the morning or night compared to the day. The top models for each data set performed well and successfully predicted 71–96% of field-verified carnivory events, 55–75% of non–carnivory events, and 58–76% of clusters overall. Refinement of this method will benefit from further application across species and ecological systems.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris - flow hazards in the event of a large - scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris - flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100 - year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km 2 ), with an average area of 0.29 km 2 , and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m 3 ), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 . The rankings of integrated relative debris - flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris - flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km 2 . Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

New Mexico↗
USGS2016

Multiscale perspectives of fire, climate and humans in western North America and the Jemez Mountains, USA

Interannual climate variations have been important drivers of wildfire occurrence in ponderosa pine forests across western North America for at least 400 years, but at finer scales of mountain ranges and landscapes human land uses sometimes over-rode climate influences. We reconstruct and analyse effects of high human population densities in forests of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico from ca 1300 CE to Present. Prior to the 1680 Pueblo Revolt, human land uses reduced the occurrence of widespread fires while simultaneously adding more ignitions resulting in many small-extent fires. During the 18th and 19th centuries, wet/dry oscillations and their effects on fuels dynamics controlled widespread fire occurrence. In the late 19th century, intensive livestock grazing disrupted fuels continuity and fire spread and then active fire suppression maintained the absence of widespread surface fires during most of the 20th century. The abundance and continuity of fuels is the most important controlling variable in fire regimes of these semi-arid forests. Reduction of widespread fires owing to reduction of fuel continuity emerges as a hallmark of extensive human impacts on past forests and fire regimes.

New Mexico↗