Geology topics

Research about Missouri River

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Missouri River.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Geomorphic change on the Missouri River during the flood of 2011

The 2011 flood on the Missouri River was one of the largest floods since the river became regulated by a series of high dams in the mid-20th century (greater than 150,000 cubic feet per second during the peak). The flood persisted through most of the summer, eroding river banks, adding sand to sandbars, and moving the thalweg of the channel in many places. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored and assessed the changes in two reaches of the Missouri River: the Garrison Reach in North Dakota, bounded by the Garrison Dam and the Lake Oahe Reservoir, and the Recreational Reach along the boundary of South Dakota and Nebraska bounded upstream by the Gavins Point Dam and extending downstream from Ponca, Nebraska. Historical cross-section data from the Garrison Dam closure until immediately before the flood indicate that the upper reaches of the river near the dam experienced rapid erosion, channel incision, and island/sandbar loss following the dam closure. The erosion, incision, and land loss lessened with time. Conversely, the lower reach near the Lake Oahe Reservoir slackwaters became depositional with channel in-filling and sandbar growth through time as the flow slowed upon reaching the reservoir. Preliminary post-flood results in the Garrison Reach indicate that the main channel has deepened at most cross-sections whereas sandbars and islands have grown vertically. Sandbars and the thalweg migrated within the Recreational Reach, however net scouring and aggradation was minimal. Changes in the two-dimensional area of sandbars and islands are still being assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. A sediment balance can be constructed for the Garrison Reach using cross-sections, bathymetric data, sand traps for wind-blown material, a quasi-three-dimensional numerical model, and dating of sediment cores. Data collection and analysis for a reach-scale sediment balance and a concurrent analysis of the effects of riparian and island vegetation on sediment deposition currently (2014) is ongoing.

Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2014

Repeated multibeam echosounder hydrographic surveys of 15 selected bridge crossings along the Missouri River from Niobrara to Rulo, Nebraska, during the flood of 2011

In 2011, unprecedented flooding in the Missouri River prompted transportation agencies to increase the frequency of monitoring riverbed elevations near bridges that cross the Missouri River. Hydrographic surveys were completed in cooperation with the Nebraska Department of Roads, using a multibeam echosounder at 15 highway bridges spanning the Missouri River from Niobrara to Rulo, Nebraska during and after the extreme 2011 flood. Evidence of bed elevation change near bridge piers was documented. The greatest amount of bed elevation change during the 2011 flood documented for this study occurred at the Burt County Missouri River Bridge at Decatur, Nebraska, where scour of about 45 feet, from before flooding, occurred between a bridge abutment and pier. Of the remaining sites, highway bridges where bed elevation change near piers appeared to have exceeded 10 feet include the Abraham Lincoln Memorial Bridge at Blair, Nebr., Bellevue Bridge at Bellevue, Nebr., and Nebraska City Bridge at Nebraska City, Nebr. Hydrographic surveys at 14 of the 15 sites were completed in mid-July and again in early October or late-November 2011. Near three of the bridges, the bed elevation of locations surveyed in July increased by more than 10 feet, on average, by late October or early November 2011. Bed elevations increased between 1 and 10 feet, on average, near six bridges. Near the remaining four bridges, bed elevations decreased between 1 and 4 feet, on average, from July to late October or early November.

Nebraska↗

USGS2014

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, April-May, 2013

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, in the vicinity of 10 bridges at 9 highway crossings of the Missouri River between Lexington and Washington, Missouri, from April 22 through May 2, 2013. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches ranging from 1,640 to 1,840 feet longitudinally and extending laterally across the active channel between banks and spur dikes in the Missouri River during low- to moderate-flow conditions. These bathymetric surveys indicate the channel conditions at the time of the surveys and provide characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in the development of predictive guidelines or equations for scour holes. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation to assess the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every pier that was in water, except those at the edge of water or in very shallow water (less than about 6 feet). Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except at piers on channel banks, near or embedded in lateral or longitudinal spur dikes, and on exposed bedrock outcrops. Scour holes observed at the surveyed bridges were examined with respect to depth and shape. Although exposure of parts of foundational support elements was observed at several piers, at most sites the exposure likely can be considered minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried in channel-bed material; however, there were several notable exceptions where the bed material thickness between the bottom of the scour hole and bedrock was less than 6 feet. Such substantial exposure of usually buried substructural elements may warrant special observation in future flood events. Previous bathymetric surveys had been done at all of the sites in this study during the flood of 2011. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of this study generally indicate a consistent increase in the elevation of the bed and decrease in the size of scour holes at these sites, both likely caused by a substantial decrease in discharge and water-surface elevation compared to the 2011 surveys at most sites. However, multiple surveys at one of the sites indicate that the flow condition is not the sole variable in the determination of the size of scour holes at sites with a dual bridge configuration. Furthermore, another site had a smaller and shallower scour hole even though the discharge in this study was slightly greater than in 2011. Pier size, nose shape, and alignment to flow also had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed.

Missouri↗

USGS2013

Spawning related movement of shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River above Fort Peck Reservoir, Montana

The hypotheses of this study were (i) that shovelnose sturgeon would make upstream movements to spawn, (ii) movement of spawning fish would be greater in a year with higher discharge, and (iii) that spawning fish would have greater movements than reproductively inactive fish. Shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus (Rafinesque, 1820) in five reproductive categories (e.g. males, confirmed spawning females, potentially spawning females, atretic females, and reproductively inactive females) were tracked in 2008 and 2009. All reproductive categories, except reproductively inactive females, exhibited large-scale movements and had omnidirectional movements. No differences in movement rates were observed in confirmed spawning females between years despite a 45% higher peak discharge in 2008 (839 m 3 s −1 ) than in 2009 (578 m 3 s −1 ). A peak discharge was obtained at a faster rate in 2008 (165 m 3 s −1 day −1 ) than in 2009 (39 m 3 s −1 day −1 ), and high discharge was of greater duration in 2008. Reproductively inactive females did not exhibit large-scale movements and their movement rate differed from other reproductive categories. Shovelnose sturgeon spawned in both years, despite highly varying hydrographs between years.

Montana↗

USGS2013

Consequences of least tern ( Sternula antillarum ) microhabitat nest-site selection on natural and mechanically constructed sandbars in the Missouri River

Nest-habitat selection in colonial species has rarely been assessed at multiple spatial scales to evaluate its fitness consequences. Management for the federally endangered U.S. Interior population of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) has focused on maintenance of breeding habitats, including mechanical construction of sandbars from dredged material. Least Terns are attracted to large areas of unvegetated substrate, yet small-scale habitat features are thought to trigger selection for nesting. We evaluated nest-scale habitat selection to determine (1) whether selection differs between constructed and natural sandbars and (2) the subsequent consequences of habitat selection on nest success. During 2006–2008, we examined 869 Least Tern nest sites on constructed and natural sandbars in the Missouri River for evidence of microhabitat selection at the nest in relation to habitat within the surrounding 3-m area. Least Tern nest sites had coarser and larger substrate materials at the nest, more debris, and less vegetation than the surrounding area. Nests in constructed habitats had a greater percentage of coarse substrates and less vegetation or debris than nests in naturally created habitats. Apparent nest success was 1.8× greater on constructed than on natural sandbars. Nest success was best predicted by models with two spatial scales of predictors, including substrates (nest) and vegetation and debris (nest or surrounding area). Our results indicate that Least Terns select nest microhabitat characteristics that are associated with wind- and water-scoured habitats, and that nest success increases when these habitats are selected.

Nebraska;South Dakota↗

USGS2013

Characteristics of sediment transport at selected sites along the Missouri River during the high-flow conditions of 2011

During 2011, many tributaries in the Missouri River Basin experienced near record peak streamflow and caused flood damage to many communities along much of the Missouri River from Montana to the confluence with the Mississippi River. The large runoff event in 2011 provided an opportunity to examine characteristics of sediment transport in the Missouri River at high-magnitude streamflow and for a long duration. The purpose of this report is to describe sediment characteristics during the 2011 high-flow conditions at six selected sites on the Missouri River, two in the middle region of the basin between Lake Sakakawea and Lake Oahe in North Dakota, and four downstream from Gavins Point Dam along the Nebraska-South Dakota and Nebraska-Iowa borders. A wider range in suspended-sediment concentration was observed in the middle segment of the Missouri River compared to sites in the lower segment. In the middle segment of the Missouri River, suspended-sediment concentrations increased and peaked as flows increased and started to plateau; however, while flows were still high and steady, suspended-sediment concentrations decreased and suspended-sediment grain sizes coarsened, indicating the decrease possibly was related to fine-sediment supply limitations. Measured bedload transport rates in the lower segment of the Missouri River (sites 3 to 6) were consistently higher than those in the middle segment (sites 1 and 2) during the high-flow conditions in 2011. The median bedload transport rate measured at site 1 was 517 tons per day and at site 2 was 1,500 tons per day. Measured bedload transport rates were highest at site 3 then decreased downstream to site 5, then increased at site 6. The median bedload transport rates were 22,100 tons per day at site 3; 5,640 tons per day at site 4; 3,930 tons per day at site 5; and 8,450 tons per day at site 6. At the two sites in the middle segment of the Missouri River, the greatest bedload was measured during the recession of the streamflow hydrograph. A similar pattern was observed at sites 3–5 in the lower segment of the Missouri River, where the greatest bedload was measured later in the event on the recession of the streamflow hydrograph, although the change in bedload was not as dramatic as observed at the sites in the middle segment of the Missouri River. With the exception of site 3, the total-sediment load on the Missouri River was highest at the beginning of the high-flow event and decreased as streamflow decreased. In the middle segment of the Missouri River, measured total-sediment load ranged from 2,320 to 182,000 tons per day at site 1 and from 3,190 to 279,000 tons per day at site 2. In the lower segment of the Missouri River, measured total-sediment load ranged from 50,600 to 223,000 tons per day at site 4; from 23,500 to 403,000 tons per day at site 5; and from 52,700 to 273,000 tons per day at site 6. The total-sediment load was dominated by suspended sediment at all of the sites measured on the Missouri River in 2011. In general, the percentage of total-sediment load that was bedload increased as the streamflow decreased, although this pattern was more prevalent at sites in the middle segment than those in the lower segment. The suspended-sediment load comprised an average of 93 percent of the total load, with the exception of site 3, where the suspended-sediment load comprised only 72 percent of the total-sediment load.

Missouri River↗

USGS2013

Results of repeat bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at the Amelia Earhart Bridge on U.S. Highway 59 over the Missouri River at Atchison, Kansas, 2009-2013

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected six times by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Transportation, in the vicinity of Amelia Earhart Bridge on U.S. Highway 59 over the Missouri River at Atchison, Kansas. A multibeam echosounder mapping system and an acoustic Doppler current meter were used to obtain channel-bed elevations and depth-averaged velocities for a river reach approximately 2,300 feet long and extending across the active channel of the Missouri River. The bathymetric and velocimetric surveys provide a “snapshot” of the channel conditions at the time of each survey, and document changes to the channel-bed elevations and velocities during the course of construction of a new bridge for U.S. Highway 59 downstream from the Amelia Earhart Bridge. The baseline survey in June 2009 revealed substantial scour holes existed at the railroad bridge piers upstream from and at pier 10 of the Amelia Earhart Bridge, with mostly uniform flow and velocities throughout the study reach. After the construction of a trestle and cofferdam on the left (eastern) bank downstream from the Amelia Earhart Bridge, a survey on June 2, 2010, revealed scour holes with similar size and shape as the baseline for similar flow conditions, with slightly higher velocities and a more substantial contraction of flow near the bridges than the baseline. Subsequent surveys during flooding conditions in June 2010 and July 2011 revealed substantial scour near the bridges compared to the baseline survey caused by the contraction of flow; however, the larger flood in July 2011 resulted in less scour than in June 2010, partly because the removal of the cofferdam for pier 5 of the new bridge in March 2011 diminished the contraction near the bridges. Generally, the downstream part of the study reach exhibited varying amounts of scour in all of the surveys except the last when compared to the baseline. During the final survey, velocities throughout the study area were the lowest of all the surveys, resulting in overall deposition throughout the reach compared to the baseline survey—despite the presence of the trestle in the final survey. The multiple surveys at the Amelia Earhart Bridge document the effects of moderate- to high-flow conditions on scour, compounded by the effects of adding and removing a constriction in the channel. Additional factors such as pier shape and angle of approach flow also were documented.

Kansas;Missouri↗

USGS2013

Size-dependent trophic patterns of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in a large river system

This study compared patterns of δ 15 N and δ 13 C enrichment of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus and shovelnose sturgeon S. platorynchus in the Missouri River, United States, to infer their trophic position in a large river system. We examined enrichment and energy flow for pallid sturgeon in three segments of the Missouri River (Montana/North Dakota, Nebraska/South Dakota, and Nebraska/Iowa) and made comparisons between species in the two downstream segments (Nebraska/South Dakota and Nebraska/Iowa). Patterns in isotopic composition for pallid sturgeon were consistent with gut content analyses indicating an ontogenetic diet shift from invertebrates to fish prey at sizes of >500-mm fork length (FL) in all three segments of the Missouri River. Isotopic patterns revealed shovelnose sturgeon did not experience an ontogenetic shift in diet and used similar prey resources as small (<500-mm FL) pallid sturgeon in the two downstream segments. We found stable isotope analysis to be an effective tool for evaluating the trophic position of sturgeons within a large river food web.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Location and timing of Asian carp spawning in the Lower Missouri River

We sampled for eggs of Asian carps, (bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis, silver carp H. molitrix , and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in 12 sites on the Lower Missouri River and in six tributaries from the months of May through July 2005 and May through June 2006 to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of spawning activity. We categorized eggs into thirty developmental stages, but usually they could not be identified to species. We estimated spawning times and locations based on developmental stage, temperature dependent rate of development and water velocity. Spawning rate was higher in the daytime between 05:00 and 21:00 h than at night. Spawning was not limited to a few sites, as has been reported for the Yangtze River, where these fishes are native, but more eggs were spawned in areas of high sinuosity. We employ a sediment transport model to estimate vertical egg concentration profiles and total egg fluxes during spawning periods on the Missouri River. We did not identify substantial spawning activity within tributaries or at tributary confluences examined in this study.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Optimum swimming pathways of fish spawning migrations in rivers

Fishes that swim upstream in rivers to spawn must navigate complex fluvial velocity fields to arrive at their ultimate locations. One hypothesis with substantial implications is that fish traverse pathways that minimize their energy expenditure during migration. Here we present the methodological and theoretical developments necessary to test this and similar hypotheses. First, a cost function is derived for upstream migration that relates work done by a fish to swimming drag. The energetic cost scales with the cube of a fish's relative velocity integrated along its path. By normalizing to the energy requirements of holding a position in the slowest waters at the path's origin, a cost function is derived that depends only on the physical environment and not on specifics of individual fish. Then, as an example, we demonstrate the analysis of a migration pathway of a telemetrically tracked pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River (USA). The actual pathway cost is lower than 10 5 random paths through the surveyed reach and is consistent with the optimization hypothesis. The implication—subject to more extensive validation—is that reproductive success in managed rivers could be increased through manipulation of reservoir releases or channel morphology to increase abundance of lower-cost migration pathways.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Travel times, streamflow velocities, and dispersion rates in the Missouri River upstream from Canyon Ferry Lake, Montana

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a dye-tracer study to determine travel times, streamflow velocities, and longitudinal dispersion rates for the Missouri River upstream from Canyon Ferry Lake. For this study, rhodamine WT (RWT) dye was injected at two locations, Missouri River Headwaters State Park in early September and Broadwater-Missouri Dam (Broadwater Dam) in late August 2010. Dye concentrations were measured at three sites downstream from each dye-injection location. The study area was a 41.2-mile reach of the Missouri River from Trident, Montana, at the confluence of the Jefferson, Madison, and Gallatin Rivers (Missouri River Headwaters) at river mile 2,319.40 downstream to the U.S. Route 12 Bridge (Townsend Bridge), river mile 2,278.23, near Townsend, Montana. Streamflows were reasonably steady and ranged from 3,070 to 3,700 cubic feet per second. Mean velocities were calculated for each subreach between measurement sites for the leading edge, peak concentration, centroid, and trailing edge at 10 percent of the peak concentration of the dye plume. Calculated velocities for the centroid of the dye plume ranged from 0.80 to 3.02 feet per second within the study reach from Missouri River Headwaters to Townsend Bridge, near Townsend. The mean velocity of the dye plume for the entire study reach, excluding the subreach between the abandoned Milwaukee Railroad bridge at Lombard, Montana (Milwaukee Bridge) and Broadwater-Missouri Dam (Broadwater Dam), was 2.87 feet per second. The velocity of the centroid of the dye plume for the subreach between Milwaukee Bridge and Broadwater Dam (Toston Reservoir) was 0.80 feet per second. The residence time for Toston Reservoir was 8.2 hours during this study. Estimated longitudinal dispersion rates of the dye plume for this study ranged from 0.72 feet per second for the subreach from Milwaukee Bridge to Broadwater Dam to 2.26 feet per second for the subreach from the U.S. Route 287 Bypass Bridge over the Missouri River north of Toston, Montana to Yorks Islands. A relation was determined between travel time of the peak concentration and the time for the dye plume to pass a site (duration of the dye plume). This relation can be used to estimate when the decreasing concentration of a potential contaminant is reduced to 10 percent of its peak concentration for accidental (contaminant or chemical) spills into the upper Missouri River.

Montana↗

USGS2012

Groundwater monitoring plan for the Missouri River alluvial aquifer in the vicinity of the City of Independence, Missouri, well field

Source contributions to monitoring and supply wells, contributing recharge areas, groundwater travel times, and current (2012) understanding of alluvial water quality were used to develop a groundwater monitoring plan for the Missouri River alluvial aquifer in the vicinity of the City of Independence, Missouri well field. The plan was designed to evaluate long-term alluvial water quality and assess potential changes in, and threats to, well-field water quality. Source contributions were determined from an existing groundwater flow model in conjunction with particle-tracking analysis and verified with water-quality data collected from 1997 through 2010 from a network of 68 monitoring wells. Three conjunctive factors - well-field pumpage, Missouri River discharge, and aquifer recharge - largely determined groundwater flow and, therefore, source contributions. The predominant source of groundwater to most monitoring wells and supply wells is the Missouri River, and this was reflected, to some extent, in alluvial water quality. To provide an estimate of the maximum potential lead time available for remedial action, monitoring wells where groundwater travel times from the contributing recharge areas are less than 2 years and predominately singular sources (such as the Missouri River or the land surface) were selected for annual sampling. The sample interval of the remaining wells, which have varying travel times and intermediate mixtures of river and land-surface contributions, were staggered on a 2-, 3-, or 4-year rotation. This was done to provide data from similar contributing areas and account for inherent aquifer variability yet minimize sample redundancy.

Missouri↗

USGS2012

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River in and into Missouri during summer flooding, July-August 2011

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas and Missouri Departments of Transportation, in the vicinity of 36 bridges at 27 highway crossings of the Missouri River between Brownville, Nebraska and St. Louis, Missouri, from July 13 through August 3, 2011, during a summer flood. A multibeam echo sounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches ranging from 1,350 to 1,860 feet and extending across the active channel of the Missouri River. These bathymetric scans provide a "snapshot" of the channel conditions at the time of the surveys and provide characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in the development of predictive guidelines or equations for scour holes. These data also may be used by the Kansas and Missouri Departments of Transportation to assess the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every pier that was in water, except those at the edge of water, in extremely shallow water, or surrounded by debris rafts. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except at piers on channel banks, those near or embedded in lateral or longitudinal spur dikes, and those on exposed bedrock outcrops. Scour holes observed at the surveyed bridges were examined with respect to depth and shape. Although exposure of parts of foundational support elements was observed at several piers, at most sites the exposure likely can be considered minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried in bed material; however, there were several notable exceptions where the bed material thickness between the bottom of the scour hole and bedrock was less than 6 feet. Such substantial exposure of usually buried substructural elements may warrant special observation in future flood events. Previous bathymetric surveys had been done at several of the sites, and comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of this study indicate substantial variability in the response of the channel bed to the 2011 summer flood conditions. At sites in Kansas City, there was no consistent deepening of the channel or increase in the size of scour holes, despite substantially more discharge and a higher water-surface elevation in the 2011 surveys, which implies the high-flow conditions during the 2011 surveys created a similar scour scenario to the previous surveys. At Jefferson City and the St. Louis sites, there was a consistent deepening of the channel, and a slight to substantial increase in the depth of scour holes in the 2011 surveys compared to previous surveys, although the effects of the higher flow appeared to be mitigated by the shape and alignment of the piers at most sites in St. Louis. Construction activities related to a new bridge at the Atchison, Kansas, site likely have contributed to the substantial additional scour observed there in a previous survey during the 2010 flooding, and the subsequent aggradation of the channel bed observed in the 2011 survey. Pier size, nose shape, and alignment to flow also had a profound effect on the size of the scour hole observed for a given pier.

Missouri;Nebraska↗

USGS2012

Habitat and prey availability attributes associated with juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon occurrence in the Missouri River, USA

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a federally endangered species native to the Missouri and lower Mississippi Rivers, USA. As part of recovery efforts, over 360000 pallid sturgeon have been stocked into the Missouri River since 1994, and a standardized, long-term monitoring program was initiated in 2003. Understanding the distribution and habitat requirements of juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon (fork length <720 mm, age <10 yr) is an important goal of the monitoring and recovery programs. In this study, we collected information on habitat characteristics and prey availability from the upper Missouri River along the Nebraska-South Dakota border and compared these attributes between capture (present) and non-capture (absent) locations (N = 59). To evaluate the relative influence of habitat and prey availability on pallid sturgeon occurrence, we examined several candidate models using an information-theoretic approach. A prey availability model had the most support and included site-specific information on Diptera and Ephemeroptera abundance. A habitat-based model showed that juveniles and early adults were found in relatively deeper water and avoided areas where bottom velocities were greater than 1.2 m s −1 . Although not as well supported as the prey-effects model (evidence ratio = 6.4), habitat features also provided a plausible model for predicting occurrence. The models developed here could be used to evaluate pallid sturgeon habitat potential in the Missouri River basin and help guide future monitoring and conservation management of this endangered species.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Extending a prototype knowledge- and object-based image analysis model to coarser spatial resolution imagery: an example from the Missouri River

A prototype knowledge- and object-based image analysis model was developed to inventory and map least tern and piping plover habitat on the Missouri River, USA. The model has been used to inventory the state of sandbars annually for 4 segments of the Missouri River since 2006 using QuickBird imagery. Interpretation of the state of sandbars is difficult when images for the segment are acquired at different river stages and different states of vegetation phenology and canopy cover. Concurrent QuickBird and RapidEye images were classified using the model and the spatial correspondence of classes in the land cover and sandbar maps were analysed for the spatial extent of the images and at nest locations for both bird species. Omission and commission errors were low for unvegetated land cover classes used for nesting by both bird species and for land cover types with continuous vegetation cover and water. Errors were larger for land cover classes characterized by a mixture of sand and vegetation. Sandbar classification decisions are made using information on land cover class proportions and disagreement between sandbar classes was resolved using fuzzy membership possibilities. Regression analysis of area for a paired sample of 47 sandbars indicated an average positive bias, 1.15 ha, for RapidEye that did not vary with sandbar size. RapidEye has potential to reduce temporal uncertainty about least tern and piping plover habitat but would not be suitable for mapping sandbar erosion, and characterization of sandbar shapes or vegetation patches at fine spatial resolution.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Missouri River↗

USGS2012

Extending a prototype knowledge and object based image analysis model to coarser spatial resolution imagery: An example from the Missouri River

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2011

Selection of nest-site habitat by interior least terns in relation to sandbar construction

Federally endangered interior least terns ( Sternula antillarum ) nest on bare or sparsely vegetated sandbars on midcontinent river systems. Loss of nesting habitat has been implicated as a cause of population declines, and managing these habitats is a major initiative in population recovery. One such initiative involves construction of mid-channel sandbars on the Missouri River, where natural sandbar habitat has declined in quantity and quality since the late 1990s. We evaluated nest-site habitat selection by least terns on constructed and natural sandbars by comparing vegetation, substrate, and debris variables at nest sites ( n = 798) and random points ( n = 1,113) in bare or sparsely vegetated habitats. Our logistic regression models revealed that a broader suite of habitat features was important in nest-site selection on constructed than on natural sandbars. Odds ratios for habitat variables indicated that avoidance of habitat features was the dominant nest-site selection process on both sandbar types, with nesting terns being attracted to nest-site habitat features (gravel and debris) and avoiding vegetation only on constructed sandbars, and avoiding silt and leaf litter on both sandbar types. Despite the seemingly uniform nature of these habitats, our results suggest that a complex suite of habitat features influences nest-site choice by least terns. However, nest-site selection in this social, colonially nesting species may be influenced by other factors, including spatial arrangement of bare sand habitat, proximity to other least terns, and prior habitat occupancy by piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). We found that nest-site selection was sensitive to subtle variation in habitat features, suggesting that rigor in maintaining habitat condition will be necessary in managing sandbars for the benefit of least terns. Further, management strategies that reduce habitat features that are avoided by least terns may be the most beneficial to nesting least terns.

Missouri River↗