A shared vision for enhancing ecological resilience in the U.S. - Mexico borderlands: The Sky Island Restoration Collaborative
No abstract available.
Arizona, Chihuahua, New Mexico, Sonora↗
Geology topics
Research about Mexico, United States
Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Mexico, United States.
Section 5: Remote sensing of vegetation in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River’s delta 2013-2018
This remote sensing section is based on Nagler et al. (in preparation for the journal Hydrological Processes) and is a summary of the USGS preliminary findings to date. This report documents the changes in green foliage density (greenness) as measured by satellite vegetation index (VI) data and corresponding evapotranspiration (ET) in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River delta associated with the Minutes 319 and 323 environmental water deliveries using time-series data from 2013 through 2018. The report focuses on what happened only within the riparian corridor’s seven reaches since the 2014 flows, and despite being a continuation of measuring greenness and ET after the 2017 end of Minute 319, this study continued the tracking of these two variables, greenness and ET, in these original riparian corridor focal areas. Two spatial scales are used here: (1) Landsat satellite imagery at 30 m pixels and (2) the EOS-1 satellite sensor the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) with a resolution of 250 m pixels. The focal period includes 2013 (prepulse flow) and the years 2014-2018, with a focus on imagery collected from the Summer growing seasons 2014 through 2018 (one-year, pre-pulse and several post-pulse years, respectively). This report re-creates the 2013-2017 Landsat-based results from Jarchow et al. (2017a, b) by using the same region of interest (ROI). The report now provides revised and re-created results using all new imagery acquisition and processing techniques, as well as extraction code, created by the Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab of the Biosystems Engineering Department of the University of Arizona (UofA). In 2018, methods employed by the VIP lab (and not ArcGIS) were used. ArcGIS was only used in the newly processed data to display the final difference maps. The entire spatial tile data from NASA was downloaded and processed at the VIP Lab using satellite imagery at two resolutions: 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat using three sensors, Landsat 5, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), with added scenes for each year based on new clear atmosphere requirements. The VIP lab clipped the river boundary and seven riparian reaches from the previously existing ROI used in Jarchow et al. (2017 a, b) for the analyses done under Minute 319. The NASA image datasets for this riparian corridor ROI in seven reaches were re-processed to produce additional vegetation index (VI) information for years 2013 to 2018 for this report. At the same time, the report acquired and processed imagery from 2000- 2018 (data outside the scope of this report and data not shown here). The additional VIs (NDVI, scaled NDVI, EVI, EVI2) were analyzed so that new assessments of greenness and ET could be produced from the imagery datasets following methods in Nagler et al. (2013). These VI choices were based on previous performance comparisons between biophysical ground-based data and radiometric satellite-based data collected from this riparian ecosystem (Nagler et al., 2001) as well as performance related to ET estimation (Nagler et al., 2005a, b) and current advancements in VIs such as EVI2.
Colorado River Delta↗
Influence of surface- and ground-water hydrology on riparian tree growth and mortality in the Limitrophe segment of the Colorado River
Branch sections and cores of cottonwood and willow trees were collected from two sites in the Limitrophe. Tree-ring analyses may reveal the relationships among tree growth, streamflow and groundwater.
Arizona, Baja California↗
Vegetation monitoring
Sonoran Institute, Pronatura Noroeste, and University of Arizona conducted vegetation monitoring in riparian restoration sites and control sites along the Colorado River corridor in Mexico during the fall (end of the growing season) of 2018. The overall goal of the vegetation monitoring program was to quantify impacts of restoration actions on the extent, composition, and structure of riparian habitat and to relate habitat characteristics to bird abundance and diversity. Specific monitoring objectives were to measure the vegetation vertical structure, density, and cover by species in active riparian restoration sites that had been planted prior to 2017 (> 2 years of growth) in Laguna Grande (CILA, Herradura, and Cori sites) and Miguel Alemán (Fig. 3-1) and to compare vegetation metrics in the restoration sites to the control sites to assess impacts of restoration. The Chaussé restoration site is scheduled for initial monitoring in 2021. This report chapter summarizes 2018 results from the restoration and control sites and compares restoration site results between 2017 and 2018.
Arizona, Baja California↗
Salinity contributions from geothermal waters to the Rio Grande and shallow aquifer system in the transboundary Mesilla (United States)/Conejos-Médanos (Mexico) Basin
Freshwater scarcity has raised concerns about the long-term availability of the water supplies within the transboundary Mesilla (United States)/Conejos-Médanos (Mexico) Basin in Texas, New Mexico, and Chihuahua. Analysis of legacy temperature data and groundwater flux estimates indicates that the region’s known geothermal systems may contribute more than 45,000 tons of dissolved solids per year to the shallow aquifer system, with around 8500 tons of dissolved solids being delivered from localized groundwater upflow zones within those geothermal systems. If this salinity flux is steady and eventually flows into the Rio Grande, it could account for 22% of the typical average annual cumulative Rio Grande salinity that leaves the basin each year—this salinity proportion could be much greater in times of low streamflow. Regional water level mapping indicates upwelling brackish waters flow towards the Rio Grande and the southern part of the Mesilla portion of the basin with some water intercepted by wells in Las Cruces and northern Chihuahua. Upwelling waters ascend from depths greater than 1 km with focused flow along fault zones, uplifted bedrock, and/or fractured igneous intrusions. Overall, this work demonstrates the utility of using heat as a groundwater tracer to identify salinity sources and further informs stakeholders on the presence of several brackish upflow zones that could notably degrade the quality of international water supplies in this developed drought-stricken region.
Chuhuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗
Streamflow response to potential changes in climate in the Upper Rio Grande Basin
The Rio Grande is a vital water source for the southwestern States of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas and for northern Mexico. The river serves as the primary source of water for irrigation in the region, has many environmental and recreational uses, and is used by more than 13 million people including those in the Cities of Albuquerque and Las Cruces, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. However, concern is growing over the increasing gap between water supply and demand in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. As populations increase and agricultural crop patterns change, demands for water are increasing, at the same time the region is undergoing a decrease in supply due to drought and climate change. Quantifying the impact of projected climate change on Rio Grande streamflow is difficult because of numerous anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic system. The conveyance and use of surface water in the Upper Rio Grande Basin are achieved through an engineered system of reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation canals designed to deliver water to agricultural, municipal, and industrial users, who greatly reduce the cumulative volume of water in the river. For example, streamflow at Fort Quitman, Tex., the southernmost point of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, has undergone a 95-percent reduction in flow relative to the river’s native state, and some stretches of the river can intermittently go dry. Because streamflow in the basin is highly altered, disentangling the impacts of climate change and changes in streamflow due to anthropogenic influences such as dams, diversions, and other forms of water use is difficult. Therefore, a model of naturalized flow was developed to determine to what degree changes in streamflow can be attributed to potential changes in future temperature and precipitation without quantifying future changes in anthropogenic influences. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included the development and calibration of a watershed model of the Upper Rio Grande Basin using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate naturalized streamflow conditions for historical and future time periods.
Colorado, New Mexico, Texas↗
Redefining the age of the lower Colorado River, southwestern United States: Reply
Crow et al. (2021) report new geochronologic and paleomagnetic data indicating that the lower Colorado River (CR) became integrated to the proto–Gulf of California (GOC) between 4.8 and 4.62 Ma instead of at ca. 5.3 Ma, as suggested by Dorsey et al. (2007, 2018). Dorsey et al. (2021) dispute this new chronology but offer no alternative explanation for one of the key data sets requiring it, new detrital sanidine (DS) geochronology. This accurate and precise constraint agrees with detrital zircon results on separate samples (Cloos, 2014) and is tied through magnetostratigraphy to the first known CR sands in the GOC.
Arizona, California, Nevada↗
A river of change—The Rio Grande in the Big Bend region
The Big Bend region is located within the heart of the Chihuahan Desert of North America. Within this region, the Rio Grande, referred to as the Rio Bravo in Mexico, is the international border between the United States and Mexico. The area known as the Big Bend is named after the large northerly bend that the river makes before flowing southeast to the Gulf of Mexico. This region is environmentally protected by both countries. Although large binational conservation efforts exist, the physical and ecological characteristics of the river have been substantially altered. Changes in Rio Grande hydrology (the seasonality, magnitude, duration, and variability in streamflow) have resulted in the widespread physical transformation of the river, resulting in the loss of important habitat for native and endangered fish and increased flood risk. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists, in cooperation with many other government agencies, universities, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are working to better understand these changes to inform management of the Rio Grande.
Texas↗
Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater characterization in selected alluvial basins in the upper Rio Grande basin, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, United States, and Chihuahua, Mexico, 1980 to 2015
Increasing demand for the limited water resources of the United States continues to put pressure on resource management agencies to balance the competing needs of ecosystem health with municipal, agricultural, and other uses. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a multiyear study to evaluate water resources in the upper Rio Grande Basin in the southwestern United States. The upper Rio Grande Basin extends from south-central Colorado, through New Mexico, into west Texas near Fort Quitman, including parts of Chihuahua, Mexico. The upper Rio Grande Basin consists of a sequence of alluvial basins that formed in the Rio Grande rift approximately 30 million years ago. This report describes the hydrogeology of the upper Rio Grande Basin and how the groundwater resources in the basin have changed from 1980 to 2015. The hydrogeologic framework includes the horizontal delineation of the alluvial basins within the upper Rio Grande Basin from the headwaters in Colorado to Fort Quitman, Texas, including part of Mexico. Groundwater-level measurements from existing State and Federal data were used to construct groundwater-level altitude and groundwater-level change maps. Of the 2,699 wells with groundwater-level data used in this study, 1,055 wells had data for only a single 5-year period, 703 wells had data for 50 percent or more of the 35 years of the study, and only 57 wells have 5-year groundwater-level data for the entire study period. The median decline in water levels in the upper Rio Grande Basin was 0.13 foot (ft) per 5-year period, and declines were measured in 53 percent of the 703 wells that contained data for 50 percent or more of the study period. Rates of groundwater-level decline greater than 1 ft per 5-year period were measured in 17 percent of the wells, greater than 2 ft per 5-year period, in 3 percent of the wells, and greater than 3 ft per 5-year period, in 1 percent of the wells. Overall, groundwater levels rose in 6 percent of the 703 wells that contained data for 50 percent or more of the study period, and in 4 percent of the wells, groundwater levels rose by 1 ft or more per 5-year period. Groundwater-level changes in wells with consecutive 5-year measurement periods exhibited the most variability in the Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos alluvial basins. The largest declines in groundwater-level altitudes in individual wells were observed in the Española alluvial basin during 1995–2000, in the Palomas alluvial basin during 2010–2015, and in the Jornada del Muerto alluvial basin during 2005–10. The largest rises in groundwater-level altitudes in individual wells were observed in the Española alluvial basin during 2005–10, in the Middle Rio Grande alluvial basin during 1995–2000, and in the Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos alluvial basin during 1980–85. Changes in groundwater storage throughout the study period varied by alluvial basin, likely based largely on changes in groundwater withdrawals because of increased demands during drier periods and population growth. All alluvial basins except the Tularosa-Hueco alluvial basin were evaluated for changes in groundwater storage from 1980 to 2015. Extremely limited data availability in 2010–15 for the Tularosa-Hueco alluvial basin led to this 5-year period being dropped from the groundwater-level change map and storage analysis for this basin. In the San Luis Valley in southern Colorado, efforts to reverse groundwater depletion in the unconfined aquifer recovered approximately 250,000 acre-feet in storage between late 2013 and early 2018, following the implementation of a “pay-to-pump” groundwater program. However, severe drought that persists in the upper Rio Grande Basin, particularly in southern Colorado, has undone some of the conservation efforts. Within the Española alluvial basin, groundwater storage varied because municipal demand increased the demand on groundwater resources and conservation efforts were implemented. A groundwater-flow model evaluated for the Española alluvial basin indicated declines in groundwater storage from 1947 through 1982. Groundwater storage decreased in the Española alluvial basin in 1980–85, 1985–90, 1990–95, 1995–2000, and 2005–10 and increased in 2000–05 and 2010–15 leading to groundwater storage in 2015 about even with that in 1985. Based on gridded groundwater-level altitudes, groundwater storage decreased in the Middle Rio Grande Basin from 1980 to 2015, except for during the 1980–85, 2000–05, and 2010–15 periods with an overall cumulative storage decrease from 1980 to 2015. Groundwater-flow models evaluated for the Middle Rio Grande alluvial basin showed groundwater storage in the Middle Rio Grande alluvial basin has been reduced since the mid-1950s through the end of the study period except for a brief recovery (reduction in storage outflow) in the mid-1980s. Simulated groundwater storage has also decreased in parts of the Palomas and Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos alluvial basins, and the northern part of the Conejos-Médanos alluvial basin starting in 1995 (excluding 2005 and 2007) and in the Tularosa-Hueco alluvial basin from the early 1940s to the end of the study period. Groundwater storage increased in the Mesilla/Conejos-Médanos alluvial basin during 1980–85 and slightly during 1990–95 and then decreased in the other 5-year periods. Groundwater storage in the Tularosa-Hueco alluvial basin increased from 1985 to 1990, but otherwise decreased, leading to an overall net groundwater-level decline in this part of the basin from 1980 to 2010.
Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Chihuahua↗
Editorial: Combining the science and practice of restoration ecology-Case studies of a grassroots binational restoration collaborative in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion (2014- 2019)
The Sky Island Restoration Collaborative (SIRC) is a growing partnership between government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and private landowners in southeast Arizona, the United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Starting in 2014 as an experiment to cultivate restoration efforts by connecting people across vocations and nations, SIRC has evolved over 5 years into a flourishing landscape-restoration initiative. The group is founded on the concept of developing a restoration economy, where ecological and socioeconomic benefits are interconnected and complimentary. The variety of ideas, people, field sites, administration, and organizations promote learning and increase project success through iterative adaptive management, transparency, and sharing. The collaborative seeks to make restoration self-sustaining and improve quality of life for citizens living along the US-Mexico border. Research and experiments are developed between scientists and practitioners to test hypotheses, qualify procedures, and quantify impacts on shared projects. Simultaneously, partners encourage and facilitate connecting more people to the landscape—via volunteerism, internships, training, and mentoring. Through this history, SIRC’s evolution is pioneering the integration of community and ecological restoration to protect biodiversity in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion. This editorial introduces SIRC as a unique opportunity for scientists and practitioners looking to engage in binational partnerships and segues into this special journal issue we have assembled that relates new findings in the field of restoration ecology.
Arizona, New Mexico↗
Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures
Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape‐scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change‐induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.
Global Change Biology↗
Redefining the age of the lower Colorado River, southwestern United States
Sanidine dating and magnetostratigraphy constrain the timing of integration of the lower Colorado River (southwestern United States and northern Mexico) with the evolving Gulf of California. The Colorado River arrived at Cottonwood Valley (Nevada and Arizona) after 5.24 Ma (during or after the Thvera subchron). The river reached the proto–Gulf of California once between 4.80 and 4.63 Ma (during the C3n.2r subchron), not at 5.3 Ma and 5.0 Ma as previously proposed. Duplication of section across newly identified strands of the Earthquake Valley fault zone (California) probably explains the discrepancy. The data also imply the start of focused plate motion and basin development in the Salton Trough (California) at 6–6.5 Ma and relative tectonic stability of the southernmost part of the lower Colorado River corridor after its integration. After integration, the Colorado River quickly incised through sediment-filled basins and divides between them as it also likely excavated Grand Canyon (Arizona). The liberated sediment from throughout the system led to deposition of hundreds of meters of Bullhead Alluvium downstream of Grand Canyon after 4.6 Ma as the river adjusted to its lower base level.
Arizona, California, Nevada↗
Hypogenic karst of the Great Basin
Discoveries in the 1980s greatly expanded speleologists’ understanding of the role that hypogenic groundwater flow can play in developing caves at depth. Ascending groundwater charged with carbon dioxide and, especially, hydrogen sulfide can readily dissolve carbonate bedrock just below and above the water table. Sulfuric acid speleogenesis, in which anoxic, rising, sulfidic groundwater mixes with oxygenated cave atmosphere to form aggressive sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) formed spectacular caves in Carlsbad Caverns National Park, USA. Cueva de Villa Luz in Mexico provides an aggressively active example of sulfuric acid speleogenesis processes, and the Frasassi Caves in Italy preserve the results of sulfuric acid speleogenesis in its upper levels while sulfidic groundwater currently enlarges cave passages in the lower levels. Many caves in east-central Nevada and western Utah (USA) are products of hypogenic speleogenesis and formed before the current topography fully developed. Wet climate during the late Neogene and Pleistocene brought extensive meteoric infiltration into the caves, and calcite speleothems (e.g., stalactites, stalagmites, shields) coat the walls and floors of the caves, concealing evidence of the earlier hypogenic stage. However, by studying the speleogenetic features in well-established sulfuric acid speleogenesis caves, evidence of hypogenic, probably sulfidic, speleogenesis in many Great Basin caves can be teased out. Compelling evidence of hypogenic speleogenesis in these caves include folia, mammillaries, bubble trails, cupolas, and metatyuyamunite. Sulfuric acid speleogenesis signs include hollow coralloid stalagmites, trays, gypsum crust, pseudoscallops, rills, and acid pool notches. Lehman Caves in Great Basin National Park is particularly informative because a low-permeability capstone protected about half of the cave from significant meteoric infiltration, preserving early speleogenetic features.
New Mexico, Nevada↗
Contemporary fire regimes provide a critical perspective on restoration needs in the Mexico-United States borderlands
The relationship between people and wildfire has always been paradoxical: fire is an essential ecological process and management tool, but can also be detrimental to life and property. Consequently, fire regimes have been modified throughout history through both intentional burning to promote benefits and active suppression to reduce risks. Reintroducing fire and its benefits back into the Sky Island mountains of the United States-Mexico borderlands has the potential to reduce adverse effects of altered fire regimes and build resilient ecosystems and human communities. To help guide regional fire restoration, we describe the frequency and severity of recent fires over a 32-year period (1985-2017) across a vast binational region in the United States-Mexico borderlands and assess variation in fire frequency and severity across climate gradients and in relation to vegetation and land tenure classes. We synthesize relevant literature on historical fire regimes within 9 major vegetation types and assess how observed contemporary fire characteristics vary from expectations based on historical patterns. Less than 28% of the study area burned during the observation period, excluding vegetation types in warmer climates that are not adapted to fire (eg, Desertscrub and Thornscrub). Average severity of recent fires was low despite some extreme outliers in cooler, wetter environments. Midway along regional temperature and precipitation gradients, approximately 64% of Pine-Oak Forests burned at least once, with fire frequencies that mainly corresponded to historical expectations on private lands in Mexico but less so on communal lands, suggesting the influence of land management. Fire frequency was higher than historical expectations in extremely cool and wet environments that support forest types such as Spruce-Fir, indicating threats to these systems possibly attributable to drought and other factors. In contrast, fires were absent or infrequent across large areas of Woodlands (~73% unburned) and Grasslands (~88% unburned) due possibly to overgrazing, which reduces abundance and continuity of fine fuels needed to carry fire. Our findings provide a new depiction of fire regimes in the Sky Islands that can help inform fire management, restoration, and regional conservation planning, fostered by local and traditional knowledge and collaboration among landowners and managers.
Arizona, Sonora↗
Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability
Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019) precipitation and temperature data for the upper and lower Colorado River Basins were analyzed to better understand recent trends in climate data that may affect groundwater resources in the area. Historical data indicate multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in precipitation in both the upper and lower basins. Although upper basin precipitation had no statistical trend over the recent historical period, the lower basin had a weak negative trend over this period. Multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in temperature also are observed in historical climate data in both the upper and lower basins, at least until the early 1970s. Beginning at that time, both the upper and lower basins experienced strong, monotonic positive trends in temperature. Basic principles of hydrology indicate that periods of decreasing precipitation as well as increasing temperature would have a negative effect, that is, reduction in groundwater infiltration and hence, reduced recharge of aquifer systems. Projected climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble members across the full range of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) from water years 1951 through 2099 were evaluated to understand what current global climate models are projecting about future conditions in the Colorado River Basin, and what this might mean for groundwater systems in the region. Precipitation in the upper basin is projected to increase throughout the rest of the century, rising to 6 percent above the 1951–2015 historical period by mid-century and to 9 percent above the historical period by the end of the century. Temperature in the upper basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century, with steady warming in decadal average temperatures expected until the last quarter of this century. In contrast to projected precipitation in the upper basin, precipitation in the lower basin is projected to be the same as, or slightly less than, the historical period throughout most of the rest of this century. Like projected temperature in the upper basin, temperature in the lower basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century. Comparing median projections for all future decades with median results from all historical decades, future precipitation is expected to be greater than that of the past in the upper basin, though no significant difference is projected for precipitation in the lower basin. Significant increases (p-value<0.05) are expected in temperature in both the upper and lower basins. To estimate the effects of projected precipitation and temperature on groundwater systems in the region, results from the 97 member CMIP5 climate projection ensemble were used as input in a Soil-Water Balance (SWB) groundwater infiltration model for the Colorado River Basin. SWB simulation results indicate that the upper Colorado River Basin is expected to experience decades of above-historical-average groundwater infiltration through the end of the century. For the lower Colorado River Basin, simulated groundwater infiltration is projected to be consistently less than the recent (1951–2015) historical period for most of the remaining century. A comparison of the distribution of all median simulated groundwater infiltration results between recent historical and future periods indicates projected groundwater infiltration in the upper basin is significantly (p-value<0.05) greater over the combined 2020–2099 future period than the recent (1951–2015) historical period. Moreover, in 41 of 71 (58 percent) possible future decades in this century, groundwater infiltration is projected to be greater than the 75th percentile of historical simulated groundwater infiltration. Projected groundwater infiltration in the lower Colorado River Basin across all future decades is significantly less than in the historical period. Of the 71 future decades in the century, projected groundwater infiltration in the lower basin is expected to be less than the 25th percentile of historical infiltration in 55 (77 percent) of the 10-year periods. Important differences in projected precipitation between the upper (increasing precipitation) and lower (decreasing precipitation) basins largely drive the different responses of simulated groundwater infiltration in the upper (increasing infiltration) and lower (decreasing infiltration) basins. It will be useful to revisit projections in groundwater infiltration in the Colorado River Basin when more up-to-date projections of precipitation become available from the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases or by using climate input developments through Regional Climate Modeling efforts and stochastic weather generators.
Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE
Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
Gulf of Mexico↗
Ecohydrological responses to surface flow across borders: Two decades of changes in vegetation greenness and water use in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River Delta
Hydrological and bioclimatic processes that lead to drought may stress plants and wildlife, restructure plant community type and architecture, increase monotypic stands and bare soils, facilitate the invasion of non‐native plant species and accelerate soil erosion. Our study focuses on the impact of a paucity of Colorado River surface flows from the United States (U.S.) to Mexico. We measured change in riparian plant greenness and water use over the past two decades using remotely sensed measurements of vegetation index (VI), evapotranspiration (ET), and a new annualized Phenology Assessment Metric (PAM) for ET. We measure these long‐term (2000‐2019) metrics and their short‐term (2014‐2019) response to an environmental, pulse flow in 2014, as prescribed under Minute 319 of the 1944 Water Treaty between the two nations. In subsequent years, small directed flows were provided to restoration areas under Minute 323. We use 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat imagery to evaluate three vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, EVI2). We select EVI2 to parameterize an optical‐based ET algorithm and test the relationship between ET from Landsat and MODIS by regression approaches. Our analyses show significant decreases in VIs and ET for both the 20‐year and post‐pulse 5‐year periods. Over the last 20 years, EVI Landsat declined 34% (30% by EVI MODIS ) and ET Landsat‐EVI declined 38% (27% by ET MODIS‐EVI ), overall ca. 1.61 mmd ‐1 or 476 mmyr ‐1 drop in ET. Over the 5 years since the 2014 pulse flow, EVI Landsat declined 20% (13% by EVI MODIS ) and ET Landsat‐EVI declined 23% (4% by ET MODIS‐EVI ) with a 0.77 mmd ‐1 or a 209 mmyr ‐1 5‐year drop in ET. Data and change maps show the pulse flow contributed enough water to slow the rate of loss, but only for the very short‐term (1‐2 years). These findings are critically important as they suggest further deterioration of biodiversity, wildlife habitat and key ecosystem services due to anthropogenic diversions of water in the U.S. and Mexico and from land clearing, fires, and plant‐related drought which affect hydrological processes.
Colorado River delta↗