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Research about Mauna Loa

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo 78.2–89.2 ; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo 89 cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo 80 are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

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Geochemistry of the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption: A comparison with earlier historical summit reservoir eruptions, with implications for magma supply and recharge

On November 28th, 2022, following a record historical repose period of 38 years, Mauna Loa erupted about 145 × 10 6 m 3 of lava and tephra over a 15-day period. The eruption was confined to the summit caldera region and the upper Northeast Rift Zone and is remarkably homogeneous in composition in both time and space. In these respects, it is typical of prior shallow summit reservoir magma bodies, recently estimated to be at a depth of around 1–2 km beneath the caldera. In contrast with these earlier magma bodies, which typically contain 6.7–7.1% MgO and are perched at the low-MgO end of olivine-control trends, the 2022 lava and tephra are more evolved with 6.24 + / − 0.03% MgO. This implies a temperature difference of around 11 °C with the prior 1984 magma. The simplest explanation is that over 38 years, cooling and crystallization of the remaining 1984 magma body has significantly exceeded magma recharge, giving rise to the evolved 2022 magma. The problem with this model is that we know from a variety of geophysical observations that in those 38 years, Mauna Loa has been erratically inflating, with heightened periods since around 2000 attributed to magma recharge. To reconcile these differences, we suggest instead that the 1984 magma cooled and crystallized much more extensively, from 1166 °C to around 1106 °C, co-crystallizing plagioclase, clinopyroxene, pigeonite and subsequently enstatite instead of pigeonite. At this point, the residual 1984 magma would have an MgO content around 4.2% and been about 50% solidified. Subsequent recharge and mixing by dominantly reservoir magmas, derived from a deeper 3–4-km intermediate magma reservoir, eventually produced the 2022 magma.

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Lava flow emplacement dynamics during the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa erupted for the first time in 38 years, threatening a major highway on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The opening phases of the eruption were focused at the volcano’s summit, before magma propagated into the upper Northeast Rift Zone to erupt at four fissure segments that localized at fissure 3 by December 2. This fissure produced a braided ʻaʻā flow that traversed the steep north flank at >1 km/hr, before slowing as slopes shallowed. Effusion rates peaked in the early hours of the eruption and then steadied at around 100 m3/s at fissure 3. Lava effusion became variable and dropped abruptly on December 7. The eruption ended on December 10 with a final flow length of 18 km. We tracked lava effusion rates, flow advance, channel dynamics, and 3-D flow field development with field and remote sensing observations throughout this eruption to inform lava flow forecasts and investigate ʻaʻā flow dynamics. Flows were mapped using optical and infrared imagery, uncrewed aircraft systems, and airborne single-pass InSAR. Video- and time-lapse cameras were deployed to record lava fountaining and channelized flow at frequent intervals, supplemented by field measurements. Analyses of these data built a detailed record of effusion rates and associated flow dynamics. We combine these high frequency observations of the proximal flow field with broader thermal and 3-D mapping of the evolution in the medial and distal flow field to examine ʻaʻā flow dynamics from source to toe. Within the steep, medial section of the flow field, channel blockages caused back-ups and overflows as the eruption progressed. Disrupted lava supply to the distal flow field and low slopes resulted in stalling, widening, and thickening at the toe. Overall, 142 million m3 of lava covered 36 km2 over 13 days. Our results inform the controls on development and evolution of lava flow fields, with implications for forecasting primary flow advance and secondary flow field growth.

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Syn-emplacement crystallization of Mauna Loa 2022 lava flows, Hawaiʻi

Advances in near-real-time forecasts of lava flow advance rates, final travel distance, and areal coverage are transforming hazard response, particularly in locations such as Hawaiʻi that experience frequent lava flow activity. The most severe threats are posed by rapidly advancing channelized ʻaʻā flows, such as those that characterized the November–December 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa volcano. To constrain rheological inputs to flow forecasting models during the eruption, samples were collected from the two most persistent lava flows and rapidly assessed for downflow changes in crystallinity and vesicularity. As observed in other channelized lava flows, the lava lost bubbles and cooled during transport, with consequent increases in groundmass crystallinity and bulk viscosity. Lava rheology, however, is controlled by more than bulk bubble and crystal contents; also important are the melt viscosity and the size and shape distributions of bubbles and crystals. Here we further interrogate the sample suite to document a down flow increase of almost two orders of magnitude in melt viscosity alone (a function of cooling combined with compositional change) and assess the extreme anisotropy of the plagioclase crystals as a function of size and flow type (pāhoehoe or ʻaʻā). When combined with previous studies, these data constrain observed relations between surface morphology, flow temperature and crystal content and indicate that remote assessments of morphological transitions and core lava temperature could be used for channel-wide monitoring of rheological evolution for assimilation into flow models.

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Detecting volcanic deformation in Hawaii using trustworthy multimodal deep learning techniques

Monitoring volcanoes involves a variety of data sources and methods to maintain complete continuity of coverage. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) are commonly used complementary methods to assess the deformation state of a volcano as magma migrates beneath the surface. The amount of data these methods produce, however, is growing rapidly beyond human analysis capabilities and is becoming difficult to manage. Here, we create a novel multimodal deep learning framework to ingest InSAR and GNSS data simultaneously and classify the deformation state of the system. We apply this methodology to Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i given its wealth of InSAR and GNSS data as well as its propensity to deform on multiple timescales. Our model performs with high accuracy and is able to identify both slow and fast deformation from 2015 to 2023. The multimodal nature of our model also allows us to identify the presence of atmospheric noise in InSAR data. Furthermore, we employ explainability algorithms to show that our model is making decisions for the right reasons and to connect complex black-box machine learning mappings to current real-world geodetic interpretations of the Mauna Loa magmatic system.

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Comprehensive characterization of Mauna Loa basalt rheology based on the 2022 eruption

Rheological data are crucial for the understanding of storage, transport, eruption, and emplacement of magma and lava. While viscosity estimates for lavas from Mauna Loa, the largest active volcano on Earth, exist, no direct rheological measurements have been done to date. This is especially surprising given the role Mauna Loa lavas and resulting landforms play in the interpretation of volcanic processes across our solar system and beyond. We present the first complete rheological characterization of Mauna Loa lava, based on the 2022 eruption. We constrain the melt viscosity and map the lava's rheology during crystallization at isothermal subliquidus conditions and at cooling at rates between 0.25 and 3.00 °C/minute. These experiments were performed at oxygen fugacities relevant to storage and eruption conditions at Mauna Loa (log fO 2 = -8.7). We integrate textural and thermal characteristics obtained from the experiments with those from water quenched natural samples (i.e. sampled from actively flowing lava and quenched within seconds to preserve the textural state of the lava while flowing) to reconstruct the evolution of lava rheology during emplacement. This integration suggests that the Mauna Loa lavas were emplaced at viscosities between 10 1.5 to 10 4.5 Pa s over the temperature range of 1150 – 1090 °C before entering a region of rapid viscosity increase and effective solidification caused by groundmass crystallization. We provide a detailed comparison of our data to rheological reconstructions of the 1984 eruption. The resulting rheological map can help guide physical property-based magma ascent and lava emplacement models, as well as the interpretation of flow morphologies and the conditions of formation of basaltic landforms on other planets.

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Utilizing crystal records to determine the underlying architecture and timescales of magmatic processes during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption

Details of Mauna Loa’s plumbing system and magma storage dynamics are relatively poorly constrained, relative to nearby Kīlauea volcano. Recent studies have begun to address this gap in knowledge using geophysical imaging or olivine-focused petrology. Here, we use the crystal cargo from the 2022 summit and Northeast Rift Zone eruption to advance our understanding of Mauna Loa’s storage regions and pre˗eruptive processes. We identify textural and geochemical populations of olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase macrocrysts as well as evolved glomerocrysts consisting of orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase. Summit versus rift zone trends can be distinguished between specific crystal populations and are used to infer magma transfer pathways. Melt inclusion barometry from three orthopyroxene populations indicate crystallization depths of ~2–3 km which coincide with previous olivine˗hosted fluid inclusion barometry across Mauna Loa’s recent 200˗yr eruptive history. We combine orthopyroxene˗hosted melt inclusion barometry with diffusion chronometry on the same crystals using Fe˗Mg interdiffusion to estimate timescales of mixing and recharge prior to the eruption. Summit orthopyroxene yield timescales of weeks to months, aligning with geophysically recognized pre˗eruptive intrusion events and previously determined olivine timescales. Northeast Rift Zone orthopyroxene crystals have resorbed cores and yield short pre˗eruptive mixing timescales on the order of hours to days. Chemistry and timescales from the orthopyroxene populations suggest some of the 2022 magmas may have bypassed the shallowest portions of the summit reservoir system and were transferred directly into the rift zone syn˗eruptively.

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Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part I: Lavas and tephras

There are few petrological constraints on magma storage depths at Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i. Yet understanding the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system is critical for interpreting geophysical signals of unrest at this very high-threat volcano. We address this gap by examining CO₂-rich fluid inclusions (FI) in lava and tephra from seven eruptions (8870 ± 56 14C yr BP, 1852, 1855, 1868, 1949, 1950, and 1984), supplemented with published data from 2022. Raman spectroscopy was used to determine FI densities, from which entrapment pressures were calculated using a CO₂-H₂O equation of state. Most FI record pressures of ~ 0.25–1.25 kbar (~ 2–5 km depth below the summit), consistent with geophysical estimates from the past 40 years. In summit eruptions, FI hosted in more evolved olivine and orthopyroxene clots (Fo and Mg# < 84) record slightly shallower pressures than those in more primitive olivines (Fo > 84) from rift zone eruptions, suggesting a crystal-poor evolved cap near the top of the reservoir (~ 2 km). The similarity in storage depths across all eight eruptions indicates that Mauna Loa’s magmas have tapped a quasi-stable reservoir over the past two centuries, and possibly over 10 kyr. Electron backscatter diffraction reveals deformations to the crystal lattice in Fo82-83 olivines, likely due to deformation during storage in mush piles. The intensity of deformation is comparable to that seen at Kīlauea, implying that mush pile stress may be decoupled from edifice size or longevity. Finally, SO₂ contents in FI increase from ~ 2 mol% at 2 kbar to ~ 15 mol% at 0.5 kbar, suggesting sulphur degassing begins far deeper than the 0.2–0.3 kbar commonly assumed for Hawaiian systems. This validates the newest generation of S degassing models (e.g., Sulfur_X), and explains precursory SO2 emissions in the ~3 hours prior to the onset of the 2022 eruption (Esse et al. 2025).

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Fluid inclusion constraints on the geometry of the magmatic plumbing system beneath Mauna Loa – Part 2: Xenoliths

Mauna Loa volcano erupts crystal-poor material at its summit and more crystal-rich material on its rift zones. Some of the more olivine-rich lava flows contain xenoliths with diverse mineralogy, including cumulate harzburgites with high-Mg# orthopyroxenes and high-Fo olivines (both > 84). Previous experimental work and thermodynamic modelling has proposed that high-Mg# orthopyroxenes only crystallize from Mauna Loa melts at high pressures (> 6 kbar, > 20 km), leading to suggestions that there is a region of sub-Moho magma storage at Mauna Loa in addition to the geophysically imaged magma reservoir at 2–5 km depth below the summit. We use melt and fluid inclusion barometry combined with thermodynamic models to further investigate this suggestion. Fluid inclusion data from harzburgites and dunitic xenoliths yield storage depths remarkably similar to those found in non-xenolithic crystals from lavas and tephras, with a clear peak at ~ 2–3 km (below the summit). Depths from melt inclusions in these xenoliths overlap with fluid inclusion pressures, ruling out the possibility of fluid inclusion re-equilibration during a period of stalling in a shallower reservoir. We examine five different thermodynamic models and find that the minimum pressure of olivine-orthopyroxene co-saturation varies by ~ 4 kbar (~ 12 km). These models also fail to predict that orthopyroxene is stable in ~ 15–80% of compositionally relevant experimental charges which grew orthopyroxene. Overall, this shows that phase stability modelling is an unreliable method of determining magma storage depth at Mauna Loa. We suggest that model discrepancies reflect a lack of experimental constraints on orthopyroxene stability at > 1200 ℃ and 0.01–5 kbar. Based on the presence of large oikocrystic orthopyroxenes completely enclosing rounded olivine chadacrysts, we suggest that these harzburgitic xenoliths formed through the reaction of intruding melts with olivine mush piles within the Mauna Loa edifice at ~ 3 km depth below the summit, with no need for a deeper storage reservoir. The predominance of pre-eruptive shallow storage means that there is more chance of detecting reservoir destabilization with geophysical monitoring techniques compared to a scenario where melts are supplied from sub-Moho reservoirs.

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A decade of precursory seismicity at Mauna Loa: 2013–2022

The 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa was preceded by nearly 10 years of seismic unrest. Using the earthquake catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, we describe and explore many aspects of unrest between January 1, 2013, and the start of the eruption on November 28, 2022 (UTC). Earthquakes associated with unrest occurred above an inflating dike at shallow depths under and to the south of Moku‘āweoweo and in the cluster of seismicity to the west of Moku‘āweoweo associated with a buried rift zone. Earthquakes also occurred in a broad region at the base of the crust, likely associated with a zone of magma accumulation. Unrest is broken down into four phases of increasing intensity with time and into individual geographic regions. While activity occurring at shallow depths under the caldera often alternated with activity on the west flank in the first two phases of unrest, the third phase of unrest featured increased rates of earthquake activity in both areas acting concurrently. We also document a slow shift in seismicity across multiple years from the south of Moku‘āweoweo to an area under the caldera that likely represents a change in the location of the intrusion through time. Broadly speaking, unrest observed in advance of the 2022 eruption occurred in the same areas as the unrest preceding eruptions in 1975 and 1984. Furthermore, precursory unrest prior to eruptions in 1975, 1984 and 2022 lasted years and culminated in an intense phase of seismic activity lasting on the order of hours that represented the final dike propagation to the surface. Concurrent earthquake activity under Moku‘āweoweo and the west flank of Mauna Loa, paired with a shift in earthquakes under Moku‘āweoweo were the two most notable long-term precursors to an eruption; however, neither provided an actionable timeline of an impending eruption. The decade of precursory seismicity prior to the 2022 eruption is similar to long precursory phases prior to eruptions in 1975 and 1984 and underscores the challenges of informing on eruption hazards in a timely manner. By combining seismic activity with other geophysical fields such as geodesy and gravity, we present a conceptual model to aid in the interpretation of future unrest at Mauna Loa.

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Onset and evolution of summit lava fountaining during the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption

The start of the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption in the Mokuʻāweoweo summit caldera was entirely captured through webcam videos. We analyzed footage from the ~ 7-h summit episode, processing > 87,000 frames using a newly automated method to measure fountain heights, fissure lengths, and inflight ejecta volumes. The summit episode comprised four phases. In Phase 1 (~ 1 h ), a ~ 1 km long fissure propagated from southwest to northeast, with steady fountain heights reaching 125 m. In Phase 2 (~ 50 min ), two further fissure segments extended the total length to ~ 2.4 km, with fountains focused into point sources reaching up to 70 m. In Phase 3 (~ 70 min ), the eruption was steady with no major changes in eruptive behavior. In Phase 4 (~ 4 h ), fountains became unsteady and weak (< 30 m). Fissure growth rates varied from ~ 20 to -9 m/min, and bulk magma flux peaked at 2.7 × 10 4 m 3 /s. An inverse relationship between maximum fountain heights and fissure lengths suggests that total magma flux was nearly constant until Phase 4. We propose an interconnected feeding system for the summit episode with a preferential pathway for gas-rich magma in the southwest portion of the caldera. The sustained nature of the episode was likely driven by the fast rise of melt coupled with small bubbles, with trains of decoupled larger bubbles producing pulsations. Webcam videography was an effective tool to quantify early-stage eruption parameters and could be further explored for rapid response and fine-tuning of hazard mitigation strategies on erupting basaltic volcanoes.

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Rhenium-osmium and oxygen isotope homogeneity during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption and implications for basaltic magma storage

Mauna Loa is one of the largest and most active volcanoes on Earth. The most recent eruption of Mauna Loa started on 27 November 2022, lasted for 13 days, and was preceded by the longest repose time of 38 years in its modern history. In this contribution, new trace- and highly siderophile-element (HSE: Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, Pd, Re) abundances, 187 Re- 187 Os, and 18 O/ 16 O data are reported for the 2022 lavas. These lavas have a limited range of MgO (6.2 ± 0.1 wt.%) and Ni (83 ± 2 µg/g), with a broader range of Re (0.3 to 1.3 ng/g) and consistent Os (0.031 to 0.080 ng/g) contents. They have 187 Os/ 188 Os ratios (0.1345 to 0.1385) which are, on average, more radiogenic than Mauna Loa picrites (0.1331 to 0.1349) and are similar in composition to more differentiated Mauna Loa tholeiite lavas (0.1340 to 0.1381). The oxygen isotope compositions of glassy samples are 5.35 ± 0.15‰ ( n = 13) and span a range in δ 18 O of + 5.0 to + 5.5‰, with an average composition 0.2 to 0.3‰ lower than MORB. The δD value is − 81 ± 11‰ ( n = 5) at very low (0.03 ± 0.015 wt.%) H 2 O concentrations. The 2022 Mauna Loa eruption is similar in terms of δ 18 O but contrasts in terms of 187 Os/ 188 Os variability, with the recent longer-lived eruptions on La Palma (Canary Islands; 85 days) in 2021 and on the Reykjanes Peninsula (Iceland) that began in 2021 and are still ongoing. Initial lavas were more fractionated for both the Canary Islands and Iceland eruptions, producing more radiogenic Os isotope compositions than later erupted products. The 2022 Mauna Loa eruption showed no such trends. The limited range in isotope compositions of the 2022 Mauna Loa lavas and their strongly fractioned HSE patterns reflect long-term storage, crystal fractionation, and assimilation of related basaltic volcanic edifice materials by the parent magma beneath the volcano prior to eruption triggering. Eruption of differentiated and homogeneous tholeiite lavas at the summit caldera and high on the volcano’s flank, with emplacement of accumulative picrites lower on the volcano, are consistent with neutral buoyancy arguments.

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Seismic velocity changes from repetitive seismicity at Mauna Loa prior to and during its 2022 eruption

Mauna Loa’s short-lived eruption from late November to early December 2022 marked the culmination of nearly a decade of elevated seismic activity and geodetic inflation. The volcano has been monitored by a network of permanent, short period and broadband seismometers. I used the continuous waveform data from that network starting in 2012 to generate a catalog of seismicity that enhances the US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s public seismic catalog with four times the number of earthquakes, which were then grouped by waveform similarity. Analysis of subtle delays in the timing of arrivals of scattered waves between pairs of earthquakes in this catalog yields a history of small changes in the shallow seismic velocity structure of the volcano. Seismic velocities have been shown at other volcanoes to change during unrest and eruption. My results show a decrease in seismic velocity centered on the summit beginning in September 2022, corresponding to the onset of a vigorous precursory swarm of seismic activity and shallow inflation. During the eruption itself, I observe large changes due likely to dike opening along the northeast rift zone and deflation of the summit reservoir. However, seismic velocity changes associated with non-volcanic sources such as ground shaking from large earthquakes and meteorological influences at seasonal and diurnal time scales are also observed, and these dominate the velocity changes prior to the eruption. Proper accounting of these effects will be a requirement for use in real-time monitoring, and this work serves as a starting point in that endeavor for Mauna Loa.

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Deformation of Mauna Loa volcano before, during, and after its 2022 eruption

Mauna Loa on the Island of Hawaiʻi erupted on 27 November 2022, the first eruption since 1984, which marked the culmination of decades-long period of non-eruptive unrest and relative quiescence. We briefly describe the evolution of the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s geodetic monitoring network at Mauna Loa and show patterns of deformation as measured by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), and borehole tilt. We highlight the long-term buildup and the imminent pre-eruptive geodetic signals, including subtle changes observed in early 2021 that suggested a potential eruption. We then describe the significant ramp up of activity in September 2022 that provided strong evidence of likely impending eruptive activity. Of particular importance are the first borehole tilt excursions related to magma movement measured at Mauna Loa’s summit, which began in 2021 and were accompanied by increased rates of seismicity. In addition to describing the evolution of surface displacements, we also model the co-eruption deformation, which can be fit by dike-like opening that matches the geometry of the surface eruptive fissures.

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Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa (Hawai‘i) erupted for the first time in 38 years, initially producing lava flows that covered the floor of its summit caldera, Moku‘āweoweo. Over the first 12 h following the summit eruption, four main fissures opened on Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, with “fissure 3” quickly becoming the dominant source of lava flows. For the next 12 days, fissure 3 produced a 19-km-long lava flow to the north, crossing the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory access road and coming within 2.8 km of inundating the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road). Within 40 min of fissure 3 opening, inundation modeling efforts had begun. For the duration of the eruption, the computational fluid dynamics model Lava2d was run in real time, using flow front locations and other field observations to make sequential forecast improvements, eventually producing a set of models which accurately predicted the routing and arrival times of lava from fissure 3. These models were used to inform timing estimates of possible future inundation of the Saddle Road. As the eruption progressed, almost 4000 Lava2d models were made using high-performance computing resources, providing critical information on uncertainty in multi-week forecasts. To our knowledge, this was the first ever real-time physics-based ensemble lava flow modeling and forecasting effort. Here, we present a chronology of these real-time efforts, focusing on the successes and limitations of this approach.

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Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

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Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

Endangered Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas ( Loxops coccineus ) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Kaʻū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ʻĀkepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ʻōhiʻa and koa ( Acacia koa ) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ʻōhiʻa woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.

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