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Research about Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Applying a metapopulation model to compare native and invasive fish passage scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River

The U.S. Geological Survey assessed the ability of metapopulation models to evaluate population-level effects of fish passage projects in the Upper Mississippi River for six native species: Ictalurus furcatus (Valenciennes in Cuvier and Valenciennes, 1840; blue catfish), Ictiobus cyprinellus (Valenciennes in Cuvier and Valenciennes, 1844; bigmouth buffalo), Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon), Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792; American paddlefish [paddlefish]), Ictiobus bubalus (Rafinesque, 1818; smallmouth buffalo), Scaphirhynchus platorynchus (Rafinesque, 1818; shovelnose sturgeon), and one invasive species: Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes in Cuvier and Valenciennes, 1844; silver carp). The study had four objectives: to (1) compile parameter values and identify gaps, (2) parameterize species-specific models, (3) apply the models to multiple scenarios, and (4) develop a point-and-click interface. The literature review revealed a paucity of data, for all species except silver carp and paddlefish; however, length–weight relations, female length–maturity curves, growth curves, spawning and recruitment estimates, and movement data among pools were identified. These data allowed the parameterization of native species metapopulation models, in addition to the use of an existing silver carp model. The models were applied to scenarios representing increased passage, decreased passage, combined passage and deterrents effects, and increased native passage with decreased invasive passage. Increased passage scenarios (depicting potential passage projects) produced greater movement and larger upriver populations. Decreased passage scenarios (depicting potential deterrent projects) yielded reduced movement. Similar population dynamic patterns were observed across species for each scenario because of a lack of species-specific empirical movement data. Simulations for longer lived, slow growing species required longer response times, including time to reach equilibria. A point-and-click model was created to allow others to use the model. Data availability for movement limited the ability of the model to be used to understand fish-movement biology and thereby inform management strategies. More fish-movement data could improve model projections of these scenarios.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Decision analysis of long-term research and monitoring investments for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program

Congressional authorization of the Water Resource Development Act of 2020 increased funding for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program and its Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element. With adequate resources there is an opportunity for LTRM to expand its understanding of the Upper Mississippi River System, address unmet partner information needs, and better inform restoration and management of the Upper Mississippi River System. Additional information needs will need to be identified and prioritized in a manner that accounts for potential tradeoffs among the preferences of UMRR partners for long-term commitments of effort. In this report, we describe a decision analysis process used by UMRR partners to develop a comprehensive framework for prioritizing and selecting the information needs they would address in the event of changes in available resources. The partners of the UMRR formed a “planning team” with members representing the UMRR partner agencies to work through the decision analysis process. This team included two facilitators who led the decision analysis process. The planning team began this process by articulating a consensus understanding of the specific decisions to be made and identifying a set of decision outcomes (objectives) the UMRR partners wanted to achieve. Next, they identified information needs not being addressed by ongoing monitoring and research, developed criteria for assessing the expected benefit of addressing each information need, and estimated the costs of addressing each information need. They then used an optimization approach to identify the portfolio of information needs that would produce the most benefit for a given cost if they were effectively addressed. Originally, the planning team expected this analysis to inform a project plan that would start in 2024, but in recognition of financial uncertainties, we refer to planning dates as the number of years after resources become available (for example, “year 1,” “year 2,” and so on).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Patterns of floodplain forest mortality and recruitment along the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Associations with forest fragmentation and flood inundation

Context Different rates of floodplain forest recruitment and mortality can reveal important changes in ecosystem processes that drive forest dynamics, resulting in net changes in forest cover, thereby influencing a wide range of river habitat and morphological characteristics. Objectives We evaluated characteristics of forest change areas in the Upper Mississippi River System. Methods An overlay technique was used to map patches of forest loss, gain, and persistence between 2010 and 2020 in relation to a series of explanatory variables. Results We quantified a net decline in forest cover ranging from 3.2 to 16.8% in the uppermost five study reaches, and a net increase in forest cover ranging from 0.5 to 4.6% in the southernmost three reaches. Patches of forest loss and persistence were similarly tall (> 15 m), dense (> 90% cover), silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) dominated forests, whereas forest gain patches were short (< 15 m), less dense (< 66% cover) and more likely to be dominated by willow ( Salix) species. Both forest loss and gain patches were smaller than forest persistence patches and were typically found in areas with low neighborhood forest density (< 50% forested 10 ha neighborhood). Areas that experienced more than three flood events per growing season, more than 100 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event, and more than 60 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020 showed a net loss of forest cover in all study reaches. In contrast, net increases in forest cover were restricted to areas that experienced less than a single flood event per growing season, less than 40 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event and less than 30 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020. Conclusions Forest mortality along these river reaches is associated with forest fragmentation and an increasingly wetter hydrological regime.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum across large river gradients

Objective Monitoring and assessment of nongame native fishes is limited, but conservation interest in these species is growing. Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens are a wide-ranging species that serve important functional roles and could serve as an indicator for similar but less common species. Our overall objectives were to quantify and compare population dynamic rates and life history of Freshwater Drum among study reaches in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers and relate these metrics to hypothesized environmental and anthropogenic factors. Methods We integrated recently collected age data with monitoring data to estimate age and size distributions, growth curves, maturation schedules, mortality rates, and young-to-adult ratios of Freshwater Drum in six study reaches spanning 1,500 km of river. Principal component analyses and linear regression were used to relate environmental and anthropogenic gradients (latitude, commercial harvest, hydrologic dynamics, primary productivity) to life history traits and population dynamic rates. Results We found latitudinal gradients in life history traits and population dynamic rates whereby Freshwater Drum in upstream, higher-latitude study reaches generally exhibited later maturity, slower growth, smaller maximum size, and lower mortality rates compared with those in lower-latitude study reaches. Further, young-to-adult ratios positively corresponded with chlorophyll- a concentration. No clear relationships were apparent between population dynamic rates and hydrologic variation or commercial harvest. Conclusions Latitude is an important structuring component of life history traits and population dynamics of Freshwater Drum in the upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers likely due to both temperature seasonality and disturbance regimes. The presence of demographic structure in a widespread, common species such as Freshwater Drum suggests similar patterns likely exist in other long-lived native fishes.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Proceedings of the Floodplain Vegetation Monitoring Workshop for the Long Term Resource Monitoring Element of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program, January 7–8, 2025, Moline, Illinois

Preface In anticipation for increased funding made possible by the Water Resources Development Act of 2020, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program identified a need to conduct river-wide assessments of floodplain vegetation. In January 2025, we assembled a group of subject matter experts to perform the following tasks: Review Upper Mississippi River Restoration’s current floodplain vegetation research portfolio, Identify important features and goals for long-term floodplain vegetation monitoring, Evaluate the suitability of existing datasets for system-wide vegetation assessments, and Discuss emerging opportunities to learn about floodplain vegetation dynamics from local-scale restoration and management projects. This document is a summarization of what occurred at the meeting and provides suggested next steps toward developing the capacity to conduct routine long-term monitoring and assessment of floodplain vegetation as part of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Big River bluegill: Combining vital rates and long-term monitoring to understand population dynamics in large rivers

Long-term monitoring indicates bluegill catch rates are relatively stable in some reaches of the Upper Mississippi River and highly variable in others, whereas in the Illinois River, catch rates have decreased. A lack of age structure information precludes understanding population processes responsible for patterns in catch rates. To build a better understanding of why catch rates have changed over time, we integrated short-term age structure information with long-term monitoring data to quantify and assess spatial patterns in bluegill population dynamics across six study reaches of these two rivers. Specifically, we estimated and compared age and size structure, growth, maturity, mortality, and recruitment. We used quantile regressions to apply age estimates to long-term data for investigating trends in age-based catch rates reflective of recruitment (age-1 catch rates), mortality (using age-1 and age-2+ catch rates), and spawning stock (age-2+). Our findings indicate trends in bluegill age-2+ catch rates increased and then stabilized across upstream study reaches, but dynamic rates, size structure, and age at maturity varied among reaches. Bluegill populations in downstream study reaches had low maximum size, early maturation, low mean age, low proportional stock density, declining recruitment, and declining age-2+ catch rates. An insufficient number of bluegills were collected from the study reach furthest downstream to adequately quantify dynamic rates. Our results support life history theory in that bluegill respond to unstable environmental conditions through life history adaptations. These findings show how integrating periodic age structure information with long-term monitoring can enhance population assessments.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Quantifying floodplain forest community change following large-scale flood events in the Upper Mississippi River System

Effects of large-scale flooding on forest composition and structure are a function of flood duration, depth, timing, and frequency. Throughout the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), floods in 1993 and 2019 were record-setting events followed by high rates of tree mortality. These events generated interest in species adaptations to flood event characteristics and how forest communities have changed in response to large-scale floods. We investigated associated tree mortality, how the floods differed spatially, and how floodplain forest communities have changed since 1993. Eight UMRS reaches were surveyed in a 1995 study, documenting vegetation species composition, size, and abundance. In 2021, a selection of plots (63%) were revisited and surveyed to quantify 2019 flood effects. For each site, we extracted daily inundation data for flood years and preceding decades from a surface water inundation model. We found post-flood mortality varied spatially and generally reflected inundation duration patterns. Lower latitude reaches experienced longer inundation durations and greater tree mortality in 1993 than in 2019, while higher latitude reaches experienced similar inundation duration and depth and similar mortality between events. Decadal inundation attributes also differed. During 2009–2018, inundation duration was greater and events occurred later than during 1983–1992 in all reaches. Most forest trajectories were Acer saccharinum -dominated and changed relatively little in species composition and structure. The greatest change in composition occurred at plots with high mortality from the 1993 flood, particularly in more flood-prone locations or where there were many small-diameter individuals. In plots dominated by either Quercus spp. or Populus deltoides , species importance shifted toward more shade and flood-tolerant species after 1995 surveys. Self-replacement of these species may be limited by a change in regeneration conditions resulting from an ongoing inundation regime shift in the case of Quercus spp., or succession to more shade-tolerant species in the case of Populus communities. Overall, effects on floodplain forests from the two flood events were heterogeneous. In some cases, forest change was likely just as influenced by shifts in flood regime as it was from singular flood events.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Long Term Resource Monitoring procedures—Aquatic vegetation monitoring

This standard operating procedure (SOP) manual describes the collection of standardized, long-term data for aquatic vegetation communities in selected study pools of the Upper Mississippi River System in the United States. The primary intent of the data collection is to assess the status and trends that aid in understanding the unique river ecosystem and to guide large-scale ecological restoration of the river and its biological communities, like aquatic plants and their dependent wildlife. This SOP is an update to the version published in 2000 and reflects modifications to sample sizes and additions of new data collection procedures. All long-term monitoring programs and their SOPs must be adapted to changing conditions and be improved through learning, and this SOP clarifies procedures and adds new elements since the initial SOP was written more than 25 years ago. The SOP is intended for multiple audiences, including vegetation specialists through the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program, data analysts using the publicly available data generated through this SOP, and natural resource managers and restoration practitioners who need data and science to guide some decisions. This SOP may be transferable and adaptable to other ecosystems when the aquatic plant community is the focus.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Upper Mississippi River Restoration future hydrology meeting series

The Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program, a broad partnership of State and Federal agencies administered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, integrates ecosystem monitoring, research, and modeling to rehabilitate habitat and evaluate ecosystem trends over time in the Upper Mississippi River System. Hydrologic data are integral to the UMRR program because they are used in scientific research, decision-making, and restoration project planning. However, a lack of quantitative hydrologic data representing potential future conditions limits the ability to complete informative research on how future conditions may affect river ecology, achieve management goals, and design restoration projects for 50-year horizons. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led a series of workshops with UMRR partners to (1) prioritize needs for understanding future hydrology, (2) discuss appropriate datasets that could address these needs, and (3) develop a plan for acquiring and distributing a hydrologic dataset of potential future conditions. Agency priorities for understanding future hydrology were broad, spanning ecologic, geomorphic, resource management, and engineering disciplines, and were identified for a range of spatial (project site, navigation pool, reach, system) and temporal (daily, seasonal, annual) scales. The LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products were identified as a potential source of off-the-shelf data to meet UMRR priority needs but warranted a robust quantitative evaluation. The final meeting in the series scoped a proposal to evaluate the LOcalized Constructed Analogs-Variable Infiltration Capacity-mizuRoute hydrologic data products for use in UMRR applications, including contingencies if the data were determined to be unreliable.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Variation and controls of sediment oxygen demand in backwater lakes of the Upper Mississippi River during winter

Many ecological processes affect the availability of winter dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in rivers, a key feature of overwintering fish habitat. Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) contributes to DO depletion, particularly during ice-covered periods, and may cause hypoxic conditions in backwater lakes, affecting the availability of suitable overwintering habitat. Understanding the drivers of SOD on habitat conditions during winter is critical for the management of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). We measured SOD rates in three different habitat types (shallow, non-vegetated; deep, non-vegetated; and vegetated) within 12 backwater lakes in Pools 4, Pool 8, and Pool 13 of the UMRS in January and February 2022. Sediment physicochemical characteristics were measured to identify potential drivers of winter SOD rates. Measured SOD rates ranged from 0.04–0.44 g O 2 /(m 2 d) at in situ temperatures, and 0.14–1.46 g O 2 /(m 2 d) when corrected to 20°C. There were no statistically significant relations between in situ SOD and most sediment characteristics. SOD was positively associated with aquatic vegetation presence and negatively associated with sediment pH, water depth, flow velocity, and ice depth. SOD was typically higher at vegetated sites with lower flow velocity, with four of the five highest SOD rates measured at vegetated sites. Vegetation presence, depth, and flow velocity played greater roles in controlling SOD rates than sediment characteristics. Additionally, DO concentrations near the sediment–water interface at deep sites (> 1.5 m) were much lower than DO concentrations 0.2 m under the water surface, indicating that SOD was influencing DO concentrations and may be affecting overwintering habitat in backwater lakes.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Exploring the importance of metapopulation dynamics with population control strategies for invasive silver carp in the upper Mississippi River

Invasive bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis , Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix , and their hybrids Hypophthalmichthys spp.) currently infest the Mississippi River Basin. Bigheaded carps can outcompete native species in invaded waters and can also transform the surrounding environment. Currently, resource managers seek to limit the population abundance of bigheaded carps and their range expansion into additional regions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) but lack a tool to evaluate different control strategies. Here, we present an application of a Silver Carp spatial population model in the UMR to fill this gap. We used the model to explore how simulated control strategies could affect Silver Carp metapopulation dynamics. More specifically, we assessed and compared the importance of movement deterrents, removal locations, and recruitment areas on Silver Carp population abundances across the UMR. Strategies that included a combination of removal efforts and deterrents resulted in the largest decreases in Silver Carp abundance in the upper pools of the UMR. Furthermore, scenarios that targeted source populations of Silver Carp rather than sink populations resulted in larger decreases in Silver Carp abundance at the invasion front. The effectiveness of these combined simulated strategies also depended on the location of Silver Carp recruitment. Our work suggests that an understanding of Silver Carp metapopulation dynamics may be important for control efforts and could help to inform the management of Silver Carp in the UMR.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Smallmouth buffalo (Ictiobus bubalus Rafinesque) population trends and demographics in the Upper Mississippi River System

Smallmouth buffalo ( Ictiobus bubalus Rafinesque) are a large-bodied fish highly valued and commercially exploited across most of their range. Despite this, relatively little is known of their population demographics compared to other exploited species. To fill these knowledge gaps, we analyzed two independent long-term datasets (30 and 57 years, respectively) and population demographic data (age structure, growth, mortality, age at maturity, and recruitment) from multiple pools of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) and Illinois River (Illinois, USA). Long-term data (30-year dataset) generally show downward trends or significant declines in catch per unit effort in the UMRS, while the 57-year dataset shows a stable trend or a significant increase in the Illinois River. The oldest smallmouth buffalo were estimated to be 39 years old, with nearly every pool sampled having individuals estimated to exceed 30 years of age. Except for Pool 13 of the UMRS, 90% of smallmouth buffalo were estimated to mature between 411 and 470 mm in length or between 8.7 and 11.2 years old. Recruitment was variable: strong year classes were generally preceded by multiple years of weak year classes. Our results indicate that the smallmouth buffalo population may be stable in portions of the UMRS and Illinois River systems, but significant declines in the northern extent of the UMRS may warrant conservation concern. Recent research into ages of buffalofishes shows that consideration should be given to the idea that the UMRS population could be age truncated. Results also emphasize the importance of long-term data and the ability to show changes in exploited populations over time.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

The where and why of large wood occurrence in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

Large wood (LW) plays important geomorphic and ecological roles in rivers and is widely used as a restoration tool. Changes to floodplain land use and historical removal have altered wood dynamics in fluvial systems globally. We know little about the distribution and dynamics of LW in great rivers (approximately >10 5 km 2 ) like the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers despite its ecosystem importance and use in restoration projects. We assessed LW occurrence data collected by the fisheries component of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program's Long Term Resource Monitoring element. We analysed 25 years of data collected across six reaches of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers that represented contrasting physiographic settings, and across four aquatic area types comprising gradients of hydrology, connectivity and geomorphology. We tested hypotheses on drivers of LW occurrence using generalised linear mixed effects models, where occurrence was predicted by reach- and local-scale environmental variables. Occurrence varied significantly across reaches and aquatic area types. In general, wood occurred more frequently upriver and in side channels compared to other aquatic areas. Large wood was most strongly predicted systemically by reach identity but not local-scale variables, underscoring the importance of broad-scale physiographic gradients in defining hydrogeomorphic processes. Floodplain forests and shoreline revetment were consistently important predictors across reaches. Our findings show that the spatial variability of LW occurrence reflects the physical variability of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. They also reveal the value in using geomorphic classifications as frameworks for understanding physical processes like LW dynamics because of their ability to contextualise site-scale conditions. The baseline understanding of LW abundance across different hydrogeomorphic gradients and scales presented here can give insight into how to more effectively target restoration efforts in great rivers and contribute to a broader understanding of LW dynamics where such studies have been lacking.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Network connectivity contributes to native small-bodied fish assemblages in the upper Mississippi River system

Effective management and conservation of fishes requires understanding habitat use across multiple life stages while ensuring necessary habitats are both available and accessible. Tributary habitats may play an important role in recruitment and dispersal of fishes in anthropogenically modified rivers such as the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers of the Midwest U.S.A. Identifying source locations that contribute to recruitment of fish populations can determine the importance of connectivity within river networks and pinpoint critical habitats that sustain fish populations. In the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), the environments that fish use in early life stages (i.e., natal origin) can be identified using otolith trace element analysis due to stability and distinctness in water chemistry (strontium: calcium [Sr:Ca]) among water bodies that is reflected in otoliths. Here, we used trace element analysis to determine natal origin of six small-bodied fishes including bullhead minnow ( Pimephales vigilax ), emerald shiner ( Notropis atherinoides ), gizzard shad ( Dorosoma cepedianum ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), orangespotted sunfish ( Lepomis humilis ), and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) across six reaches of the UMRS (Pools 4, 8, 13, 26, the Open River of the Middle Mississippi River, and the La Grange Pool of the Illinois River). Otolith core Sr:Ca for fishes was quantified using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Using the resulting Sr:Ca chemical signatures of otolith cores, natal origin (tributary, immigrant, or potential resident) was determined for individual fish based on family-specific relationships between otolith and water chemistries. We found that all species originated from tributaries and other reaches (i.e., were immigrants) to varying extents, which acted as evidence for network connectivity. Specifically, tributaries contributed up to 48% of individuals at a given reach. In certain reaches, Pool 26 and the Open River reach, up to 80% of individuals in a species immigrated from another mainstem river reach. Network connectivity was also important in both upstream and downstream directions. Contributions from network connectivity varied among species: bullhead minnow used less whereas orangespotted sunfish used more network connectivity than when all species were combined. Further, the use of network connectivity varied spatially where individuals captured in Pool 8 and the La Grange Pool less often and those from Pool 26 and the Open River more often originated from network connectivity compared to the whole assemblage across reaches. These results indicate that species' life history traits probably interacted with the physical environment, which differs spatially, to yield observed recruitment source patterns. Our results show that network connectivity contributes to established assemblages of native small-bodied fishes throughout the UMRS and underscore the role of interjurisdictional management in maintaining network connectivity to sustain fish populations.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

Low-complexity floodplain inundation model performs well for ecological and management applications in a large river ecosystem

Flooding is a dominant physical process that drives the form and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Efficiently characterizing flooding dynamics can be challenging, especially over geographically broad areas or at spatial and temporal scales relevant for ecosystem management activities. Here, we empirically evaluated a low-complexity geospatial model of floodplain inundation in six study segments of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) by pairing spatially extensive, temporally limited and spatially limited, temporally extensive sampling designs. We found little evidence of systematic bias in model performance although discrepancies between model predictions and empirical data did occur locally. Assessments of model predictions revealed low segment-wide discrepancies of wetted extent under contrasting flow conditions and agreement for inundation event detection and duration. Model performance for predicting event frequency and duration was similar among sites expected to exhibit contrasting patterns of hydrologic connectivity with the main channel. Our results suggest that low-complexity models can efficiently characterize a critical physical process across geographically broad, complex river-floodplain ecosystems. Such tools have the potential for advancing scientific understanding of landscape-scale ecological patterns and for prioritizing management actions in large, complex river-floodplain ecosystems like the UMRS.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2023

Reconstructing missing data by comparing interpolation techniques: Applications for long-term water quality data

Missing data are typical yet must be addressed for proper inferences or expanding datasets to guide our limnological understanding and management of aquatic systems. Interpolation methods (i.e., estimating missing values using known values within the dataset) can alleviate data gaps and common problems. We compared seven popular interpolation methods for predicting substantial missingness in a long-term water quality dataset from the Upper Mississippi River, U.S.A. The dataset included 80,000 sampling sites collected over 30 yr that had substantial missingness for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and water velocity. For all three interpolated water quality variables, random forests had very high prediction accuracy and outperformed the methods of ordinary kriging, polynomial regressions, regression trees, and inverse distance weighting. TP had a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.03 mg (L-TP) −1 , TN had a MAE of 0.39 mg (L-TN) −1 , and water velocity had a MAE of 0.10 m s −1 . The random forests' error rates were mapped and showed low spatiotemporal variability across the riverscape, indicating high model performance across many habitat types and large spatial scales. In the current era of “big data,” interpolation becomes an imperative step prior to ecological analyses yet remains unfamiliar and underutilized. Our research briefly describes the importance of addressing missingness and provides a roadmap to conduct model intercomparisons of other big datasets. We also share adaptable data analysis scripts, which allows others to readily conduct interpolation comparisons for many limnology applications and contexts.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗