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Research about Gulf of Alaska

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Gulf of Alaska.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Constraining sources of mid-Pleistocene to present explosive volcanism in the Gulf of Alaska using machine learning and compositional data analysis

The long-term eruptive record of a region helps better elucidate magmatic processes at depth as well as volcanic hazards at the surface. Typically, reconstructing such records is done using proximal tephrostratigraphy and linking individual tephras to source volcanoes. These records, however, can only be accurately constructed if they are both well preserved and correctly linked to source volcanoes—not a trivial task, especially in areas such as Alaska that have experienced numerous glaciation events since the Pleistocene. This ultimately necessitates another way of assessing the long-term volcanic record such that these histories may be better discerned. Here we present data from 70 marine core tephras from the Gulf of Alaska, which have a virtually uninterrupted depositional record going back through the mid-Pleistocene. We utilize compositional data analysis techniques to quantify 37 eruptions over the span of eight cores, machine learning classification and conformal prediction algorithms to assign the most probable volcanic source(s) to each eruption, and multivariate distance-based metrics when machine learning classification algorithms are inappropriate. We find that the Mount Katmai magmatic system is the most probable volcanic source for analyzed tephras and that large volcanic centers such as Mount Katmai, Fisher Caldera, and Emmons Lake volcanic center have produced nearly invariant incompatible trace element ratio magmas, allowing for them to be confidently identified in long-term tephra records. This highlights the utility of trace elements for tephra studies, especially when paired with compositional data analysis, multivariate statistical tests, and petrologically informed discriminants.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

n the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Migratory strategies across an ecological barrier: Is the answer blowing in the wind?

Background: Ecological barriers can shape the movement strategies of migratory animals that navigate around or across them, creating migratory divides. Wind plays a large role in facilitating aerial migrations, and can temporally or spatially change the challenge posed by an ecological barrier, with beneficial winds potentially converting a barrier to a corridor. Here, we explore the role wind plays in shaping initial southbound migration strategy between two populations departing from different locations along an ecological barrier. Methods: Using GPS satellite transmitters, we tracked the southbound migration of two populations of Short-billed Dowitchers ( Limnodromus griseus caurinus ) from breeding grounds in Alaska to wintering sites in coastal Mexico. The breeding grounds were positioned in distinct regions along an ecological barrier, the Gulf of Alaska. Between the two populations, we compared migratory timing, wind availability at, and tailwind support en route across the Gulf of Alaska. Results: Route choice and arrival timing to wintering sites differed markedly between the two populations: individuals departing from the more westerly site (King Salmon) left at the same time as those from further east (Beluga) but crossed the Gulf of Alaska farther west and arrived along the Pacific coast of Mexico an average of 19 days earlier than their counterparts. Dowitchers from both sites used a slight tailwind to cue departure, but once aloft over the Gulf of Alaska, birds from the more westerly site had up to ten times more tailwind assistance than birds from the more easterly one. Conclusions: The distinct migration strategies, and degree of wind assistance experienced, of these two populations demonstrates how differences in wind availability along migratory routes may form the basis for intraspecific variation in migration strategies with potential carryover effects. Future changes in wind regimes may therefore interact with changes in habitat availability to influence migration patterns and migratory bird conservation.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Alaskan glacial dust is an important iron source to surface waters of the Gulf of Alaska

This work evaluates glacial dust as a source of sediment, and associated iron (Fe), to the Fe-limited Gulf of Alaska (GoA). A reanalysis of GoA sediment data, using rare earth elements and thorium as provenance tracers, suggests a flux to the ocean surface of Copper River (AK) glacial dust, and associated Fe, that is comparable to the flux of dust from Asia, at least 1,000 km from the narrow mountain valley glacial dust source area. This work suggests dust from Asia may not be the largest source of Fe to the GoA. Dust models fail to accurately simulate this glacial dust transport because their coarse resolution underestimates wind speeds, and the dust flux. This work suggests that glacial dust fluxes may have been important in the geologic past (e.g., the last glacial maximum) from locations where there was more extensive coverage by glaciers than at present.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Capelin on the rebound: Using seabird diets to track trends in forage fish populations

Capelin are cold-water forage fish that respond rapidly to fluctuating ocean temperatures. They are prized food for seabirds and other marine predators in Alaska. Researchers have monitored seabird diets at Middleton Island for decades to make connections between changes in abundance of predators and their prey. During a prolonged marine heatwave in the Gulf of Alaska, seabird diets and limited trawl surveys showed that capelin populations collapsed from record high abundance during the 2007–2013 cool period (Hatch 2013) to record lows in 2016 (Arimitsu et al. 2021). Capelin occurrence in diets had previously oscillated out of phase with Pacific sand lance numbers during cold and warm years (Sydeman et al. 2017), however, the occurrence of both prey species in seabird diets fell below average during 2014–2022 (Fig. 1). Following a period of cooler ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, during 2023 we began to see signs of capelin stock recovery, with a moderate increase in occurrence in spring and summer seabird diets (Fig. 1, Hatch et al. 2023). Continued monitoring of seabird diets can help track capelin populations and other key forage fish to inform ecosystem-based management in 2024 and beyond.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Glacial meltwater and sediment resuspension can be important sources of dissolved and total dissolvable aluminum and manganese to coastal ocean surface waters

The supply of aluminum (Al) and manganese (Mn) to the Gulf of Alaska from coastal sources is poorly constrained. Here, we investigate the seasonality of sources to better constrain Al and Mn cycling in the coastal Gulf of Alaska region and add to our understanding of seasonal and interannual inputs. We examine Mn and Al behavior over the shelf to distinguish between redox-induced release of dissolved trace metals (i.e., diffusion from sediments), sediment resuspension, and meltwater release. Data suggest that, prior to the onset of stratification in the spring, shelf sediment resuspension from deep mixing is an important mechanism for trace metal delivery to surface waters. As spring and summer ensue, increased meltwater discharge coupled with increased surface water temperatures result in stratification of the water column within the coastal Gulf of Alaska, and meltwater becomes a more important source of Al and Mn to the surface waters. The limited data available suggest that a redox-driven flux of Mn from shelf sediments is not as important as the meltwater flux during the summer. In addition, dissolved trace metal concentrations in meltwater-influenced plumes over the shelf exhibit conservative mixing, while particulate trace metal concentrations do not behave conservatively. This indicates that there are different physical controls (particle settling vs. mixing) on the spatial distributions of dissolved and particulate Al and Mn in coastal waters, the manifestation of which are likely highly variable and dependent on the trace metal composition of the river and the hydrodynamics governing this interaction at any given time.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across synoptic to century-long time scales

Surface and subsurface moored buoy, ship-based, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets are used to investigate thermal variability of northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) nearshore, coastal, and offshore waters over synoptic to century-long time scales. NGA sea surface temperature (SST) showed a larger positive trend of 0.22 ± 0.10 °C per decade over 1970–2021 compared to 0.10 ± 0.03 °C per decade over 1900–2021. Over synoptic time scales, SST covariance between two stations is small (<10%) when separation exceeds 100 km, while stations separated by 500 km retain 50% of their co-variability for seasonal and longer fluctuations. Relative to in situ sensor data, remotely sensed SST data has limited accuracy in some NGA settings, capturing 60–70% of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, but often <25% nearshore. North Pacific and NGA leading modes of SST variability leave 25–50% of monthly variance unresolved. Analysis of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave shows that NGA coastal surface temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through 2013, but deep inner shelf waters (200–250 m) exhibited delayed warming. Offshore surface waters cooled from 2014 to 2016, while shelf waters continued to warm from the combined effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes. We find that annually averaged Sitka air temperature is a leading predictor (r 2 = 0.37, p < 0.05) for following-year NGA coastal water column temperature. Our results can inform future environmental monitoring designs, assist forward-looking projections of marine conditions, and show the importance of in situ measurements for nearshore studies that require knowledge of thermal conditions over time scales of days and weeks.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Dissolved Fe supply to the central Gulf of Alaska is inferred to be derived from Alaskan glacial dust that is not resolved by dust transport models

Re-examination of previously published dissolved iron time-series data from Ocean Station Papa in the central Gulf of Alaska (GoA) reveals 33-70% increases in the dissolved iron inventories occurring between September and February of successive years, implying a source of Fe to this region during autumn or early winter. Because I can virtually rule out many possible iron sources at this time of year, I suggest Alaskan glacial dust is the likely iron source. Large plumes of such dust are known to be generated regularly in the autumn by anomalous offshore winds and channelled through mountain gaps, simultaneously from several locations spanning ∼1000 km of the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline. Large dust flux events occur when below-freezing, low-humidity air temperatures persist for many days during the autumn. I suggest that existing state-of-the-art global dust models fail to reproduce this Alaskan dust flux because the model spatial resolution is too coarse to resolve the high winds through the narrow mountain gaps that generate the dust. Future work that could help to confirm this Fe source to the central GoA includes time-series profiles of iron concentrations, and ancillary information from sensor-equipped profiling floats. If this mechanism of Fe supply to the central GoA were confirmed, it would imply this Alaskan dust is transported ≥ 1100 km from the coast, more than twice as far as has been visually documented from satellite observations.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Heatwave-induced synchrony within forage fish portfolio disrupts energy flow to top pelagic predators

During the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016, abundance and quality of several key forage fish species in the Gulf of Alaska were simultaneously reduced throughout the system. Capelin ( Mallotus catervarius ), sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ), and herring ( Clupea pallasii ) populations were at historically low levels, and within this community abrupt declines in portfolio effects identify trophic instability at the onset of the heatwave. Although compensatory changes in age‐structure, size, growth or energy content of forage fish were observed to varying degrees among all these forage fish, none were able to fully mitigate adverse impacts of the heatwave, which likely included both top‐down and bottom‐up forcing. Notably, changes to the demographic structure of forage fish suggested size‐selective removals typical of top‐down regulation. At the same time, zooplankton community structure may have driven bottom‐up regulation as copepod community structure shifted towards smaller, warm‐water species, and euphausiid biomass was reduced owing to the loss of cold‐water species. Mediated by these impacts on the forage fish community, an unprecedented disruption of the normal pelagic food web was signaled by higher trophic level disruptions during 2015–2016, when seabirds, marine mammals, and groundfish experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortalities, and reproductive failures. Unlike decadal‐scale variability underlying ecosystem regime shifts, the heatwave appeared to temporarily overwhelm the ability of the forage fish community to buffer against changes imposed by warm water anomalies, thereby eliminating any ecological advantages that may have accrued from having a suite of coexisting forage species with differing life history compensations.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Reduced quality and synchronous collapse of forage species disrupts trophic transfer during a prolonged marine heatwave

The Gulf of Alaska forage fish community includes a few key species that differ markedly in their timing of spawning, somatic growth and lipid storage, and in their migration behavior. This diversity in life history strategies facilitates resilience in marine food webs because it buffers predators against the naturally high variance in abundance of pelagic forage fish populations by decreasing the likelihood that all species will be scarce at the same time. During the prolonged North Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016, the availability and quality of at least three key forage species with different life history strategies were reduced simultaneously in the system. Capelin and sand lance occurrence in predator diets declined abruptly, and Prince William Sound herring spawning biomass declined to historically low levels. Biomass of euphausiids was also reduced, in part due to the loss of a cold-water species. Changes in age structure, growth, and energy content of capelin, sand lance, and herring were also associated with warming during the heatwave, but not all species responded in the same way. For example, spawning capelin grew faster and matured at a younger age but were shorter in length than usual, while sand lance in Prince William Sound experienced anomalously low growth rates and lipid storage in 2015-2016. Changes in forage fish populations had immediate impacts on predator populations in 2015-2016, when seabirds and marine mammals experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortality, and reproductive failures in the Gulf of Alaska. In contrast, copepod abundance increased on the shelf and in some coastal regions during the heatwave, suggesting that food availability was not a primary factor limiting forage fish populations at this time. The reduced quality and collapse of multiple forage fish populations reduced the efficiency of energy transfer through the middle trophic level of pelagic food webs, disrupting energy flow to piscivorous pelagic predators and causing abrupt and extreme reductions in their numbers and productivity.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

A study of marine temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across years of marine heatwaves and cold spells

We use over 100 in situ and remotely sensed temperature datasets to investigate thermal variability within and across the intertidal nearshore, coastal and offshore waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska. For the years 1970 through 2019 we document a warming trend of 0.24±0.10 °C per decade for the coastal northern shelf (0-250 m depth average) and a Gulf-wide sea surface temperature (SST) trend of 0.25±0.11 °C per decade. The Gulf-wide SST trend in the last halfcentury is more than twice that of the 0.11±0.003 °C warming rate computed for 1900-2019. Decorrelation length scales vary regionally and correlation of synoptic scale fluctuations (less than one month) between two stations rapidly degrades with increasing station distance, accounting for less than 10% of the covariance for separations exceeding 100 km. In contrast, stations separated by as much as 500 km retain 50% of their covariance in common for seasonal and sub-seasonal fluctuations. While satellite-based measures often capture most of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, a significant portion of the variance (30-40%) can remain unresolved, even exceeding 75% in the nearshore realm. Similarly, the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska leading modes of SST variability leave large fractions (25-50%) of the subseasonal thermal variance unresolved. These evaluations show the importance of in situ temperature records for studies that seek to understand mechanistic responses of marine organisms to habitat variability at biologically important time and space scales. We find that near-bottom temperature anomalies on the outer shelf vary inversely with surface temperatures and with near-bottom salinity, suggesting that thermal anomalies are also linked with nutrient flux anomalies. A case study of the recent Pacific marine heatwave and transition out of preceding cool years shows that the northern Gulf of Alaska surface temperatures (0-50 m) were elevated from 2014 to 2019 relative to the long-term record. Coastal temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through the 2013 calendar year. In contrast, deep inner shelf waters (200-250 m) exhibited delayed warming relative to the surface and relative to deep waters offshore at the same depth. While offshore surface waters cooled from early 2014 into 1-2 Science Synthesis Final Report Gulf Watch Alaska, 2021 early 2016, the shelf continued to warm over this time as the effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes continued to permeate across the northern Gulf. These results highlight the importance of different heating mechanisms for surface and near-bottom waters across the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Spatial and temporal dynamics of Pacific capelin Mallotus catervarius in the Gulf of Alaska: Implications for ecosystem-based fisheries management

Pacific capelin Mallotus catervarius are planktivorous, small pelagic fish that serve an intermediate trophic role in marine food webs. Due to the lack of a directed fishery or monitoring of capelin in the Northeast Pacific, there is limited information on their distribution and abundance, and how spatio-temporal fluctuations in capelin density affects their availability as prey. To provide information on life history, spatial patterns, and population dynamics of capelin in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), we modeled distributions of spawning habitat and larval dispersal, and synthesized spatially-indexed data from multiple, independent sources from 1996 to 2016. Potential capelin spawning areas were broadly distributed across the GOA. Models of larval drift show the GOA’s advective circulation patterns disperse capelin larvae over the continental shelf and upper slope, indicating potential connections between spawning areas and observed offshore distributions that are influenced by the location and timing of spawning. Spatial overlap in composite distributions of larval and age-1+ fish was used to identify core areas where capelin consistently occur and concentrate. Capelin primarily occupy shelf waters near the Kodiak Archipelago, and are patchily distributed across the GOA shelf and inshore waters. Interannual variations in abundance along with spatio-temporal differences in density indicates the availability of capelin to predators and monitoring surveys is highly variable in the GOA. We demonstrate that the limitations of individual data series can be compensated for by integrating multiple data sources to monitor fluctuations in distributions and abundance trends of an ecologically important species across a large marine ecosystem.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Using the Delphi process to gather information from a Bald Eagle expert panel

Bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) populations are classified by the Southwest Alaska Network (SWAN) of the National Park Service as a vital sign of biological integrity, largely because of their importance as an indicator species for environmental contaminants and human disturbance. Though Bald Eagles are plentiful in Alaska, it is still imperative to have a monitoring plan that allows for the estimation of population sizes and detection of significant changes in populations. Currently, Bald Eagles are monitored in Kenai Fjords National Park, Katmai National Park and Preserve, Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, and Wrangell – St. Elias National Park, but each park uses different monitoring procedures and evaluation criteria. This makes it difficult for scientists and managers to compare data, detect changes in overall populations, and make effective management decisions. Our research is using a formal structured decision-making process to ensure that the Bald Eagle monitoring conducted by the parks is standardized and meets programmatic goals and objectives. We implemented a Delphi process, which is an iterative survey technique that is used to gather expert opinion. We used online questionnaires to gather information and opinions from National Park Service scientists and managers, eagle experts, and other interested parties. We identified important stressors and feasible monitoring metrics, which were tied to the means objectives for the Bald Eagle monitoring program: minimize cost, minimize effort, maximize ability to detect change in populations, and maximize accurate information about Bald Eagles. We will also analyze monitoring metrics using a consequence table, which determines the performance of each objective in terms of the means objectives chosen by expert panelists. This information will help to create a more accurate conceptual model of the system to guide development of a Bald Eagle monitoring program that can be standardized among Southwest Alaska National Parks.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Late Miocene to Pleistocene source to sink record of exhumation and sediment routing in the Gulf of Alaska from detrital zircon fission-track and U-Pb double dating

We investigate the late Miocene‐Pleistocene offshore sedimentary record of the Yakutat microplate to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations in rock exhumation and sediment routing patterns at the heavily glaciated and actively converging plate boundary in southeast Alaska. We present 1,456 new fission track ages and 1,372 new U‐Pb ages from double‐dated detrital zircons derived from fourteen samples collected from offshore. We integrate our results with published geochronology and thermochronology data onland and offshore in order to constrain grain provenance. We find that offshore strata deposited east of the fold and thrust belt are sourced from the rapidly exhuming areas along the entire Fairweather Fault, the northeastern part of the syntaxial region, as well as the slowly exhuming Insular superterrane. In contrast, the western strata are sourced from the emerging fold and thrust belt and the Chugach Metamorphic Complex located north of the plate boundary. In these samples we identified a change in sediment provenance, which we suggest marks the capture of the Bagley Ice Valley by the proto‐Bering Glacier at the transition from the early to late Pliocene. This implies that the modern Bagley‐Bering Glacier System is much older than previously known. Strata deposited at ~8.6 Ma suggest that extreme rapid exhumation was already ongoing in the late Miocene, which supports previous findings in deep‐sea deposits. Overall, the data help discern several stages in the evolution of sediment routing patterns in response to dynamic tectonic and surficial processes along this active convergent margin.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Effects of ocean climate on the length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska

Climatic drivers of the size and body condition of forage fish in the North Pacific are poorly known. We hypothesized that length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) should vary in relation to ocean temperature on multiple scales. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed morphometric data for capelin (Mallotus catervarius) and Pacific sand lance (PSL; Ammodytes personatus) sampled by a seabird (Cerorhinca monocerata) in two regions of the GoA, 1993–2016. Based on previous studies, we predicted specifically that capelin length and body condition (Fulton’s K) would be negatively related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea surface temperature (SST), whereas PSL length and condition would be positively related. Interannual variation in length and body condition was evaluated relative to seasonal values of ocean climate using regression. Forage fish length and condition varied interannually, between sampling regions, and were dependent on the size/age class of the fish sampled. As predicted, length and body condition of capelin (mostly age 1+) were negatively related to the PDO and SST. Relationships with ocean climate for PSL varied by size/age class: positive for putative age-0 fish and negative for putative age-1+ fish. We conclude that our hypothesis was supported for capelin and partially supported for PSL. This study demonstrates that ocean climate determines key morphometric characteristics of forage fish that may relate to interannual variation in the energetic value of prey, and provides an example of how seabirds can be used to obtain specimens for evaluations of potential prey quality.

Alaska↗