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Research about Ethiopia

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Ethiopia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2026

Advances in volcano monitoring driven by the first decade of Sentinel-1 observations

Sentinel-1 has transformed how satellite radar data (SAR and InSAR) are used in volcanology. The systematic, long-term archive and open-access policy means that volcano observatories and research organisations have invested in integrating Sentinel-1 datasets into their monitoring systems. We identify 233 high priority volcanoes and estimate that Sentinel-1 data has been used in peer-reviewed publications for 90 of them. We examine a global archive of 3.3 million automatically processed Sentinel-1 interferograms of volcanoes and use machine learning methods to identify eruptions and periods of unrest. We then review the ways in which InSAR data are being used in different contexts. At frequently erupting basaltic systems in Iceland, Hawaiʻi, the Galápagos , and Piton de la Fournaise, InSAR has become an effective monitoring tool and is integrated with other datasets and models to forecast magma pathways. For large explosive eruptions, deformation measurements often remain challenging, but SAR backscatter is increasingly used to map damaging flows and measure the changing shape of ocean islands. Sentinel-1's long archive provides critical baseline measurements that are vital for measuring slow deformation, capturing new periods of unrest and providing fresh insights into subsurface dynamics. Understanding the drivers of deformation remains challenging and typically relies on integration with external datasets. Future European Space Agency missions have the potential to improve both resolution and coverage providing an even richer dataset to further enhance global volcano monitoring

Erta Ale volcano↗
USGS2023

Using an open-source tool to develop a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework of the Kobo Valley, Ethiopia

Groundwater resource management requires understanding the groundwater basin’s hydrogeology and would be improved with the development of a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model (HFM). A wide range of methods and software exist to quantify the extent, structure, and properties of geologic systems. However, most geologic software is proprietary and cost-prohibitive for use in developing countries. GemPy is a Python-based, open-source (no-cost) tool for generating three-dimensional geological models. This study uses available data and GemPy to develop the Kobo Valley Hydrogeologic Framework Model (KV-HFM), a three-dimensional HFM for Kobo Valley in northern Ethiopia, which is part of the East African Rift System. The KV-HFM is a conceptual model that comprises the hydrostratigraphy, structural features, and hydraulic properties of the Kobo Valley groundwater system. The limited data described the extent and altitude of the hydrostratigraphic units using the GemPy implicit potential–field interpolation. The KV-HFM showed the existence of an east-to-west, structural-based groundwater divide composed of volcanic rock and clay. This divide splits the catchment into two groundwater systems with limited interconnected flow. This study illustrates the use of open-source software for developing an HFM using sparse, existing geologic data.

Afar Depression, Kobo Valley catchment↗
USGS2023

Recharge estimation approach in a data-scarce semi-arid region, Northern Ethiopian Rift Valley

Sustainable management of groundwater resources highly relies on the accurate estimation of recharge. However, accurate recharge estimation is a challenge, especially in data-scarce regions, as the existing models are data-intensive and require extensive parameterization. This study developed a process-based hydrologic model combining local and remotely sensed data for characterizing recharge in data-limited regions using a Basin Characterization Model (BCM). This study was conducted in Raya and Kobo Valleys, a semi-arid region in Northern Ethiopia, considering both the structural basin and the surrounding mountainous recharge areas. Climatic Research Unit monthly datasets for 1991 to 2020 and WaPOR actual evapotranspiration data were used. The model results show that the average annual recharge and surface runoff from 1991 to 2020 were 73 mm and 167 mm, respectively, with a substantial portion contributed along the front of the mountainous parts of the study area. The mountainous recharge occurred along and above the valleys as mountain-block and mountain-front recharge. The long-term estimates of the monthly recharge time series indicated that the water balance components follow the temporal pattern of rainfall amount. However, the relation of recharge to precipitation was nonlinearly related, showing the episodic nature of recharge in semi-arid regions. This study informed the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge and runoff hydrologic variables at fine spatial scales for each grid cell, allowing results to be summarized for various planning units, including farmlands. One third of the precipitation in the drainage basin becomes recharge and runoff, while the remaining is lost through evapotranspiration. The current study’s findings are vital for developing plans for sustainable management of water resources in semi-arid regions. Also, monthly groundwater withdrawals for agriculture should be regulated in relation to spatial and temporal recharge patterns. We conclude that combining scarce local data with global datasets and tools is a useful approach for estimating recharge to manage groundwater resources in data-scarce regions.

Kobo Valley, Riya Valley↗
USGS2023

Kesem-Kebena-Dulecha study area, Ethiopia

In 1988 and 1989, the Paleoanthropological Inventory of Ethiopia (PIE) field expedition discovered numerous localities of prehistoric significance across Ethiopia (WoldeGabriel et al., 1992). One of the regions surveyed by the Inventory team was the Dulecha administrative district (Gabi Rasu), Afar Zone (Fig. 1). The surveyed area (geographic reference: 9.407° N, 40.057° E) includes the watershed vicinity of the Kesem and Kebena Rivers (tributaries of the Awash River) where Plio-Pleistocene outcrops flank the Awash floodplain parallel to the river and west of the Dofan Volcano. The Fentale Vlcano lies SSW of the Kesem-Kebena-Dulecha area, immediately south of where the Main Ethiopian Rift opens into a floodplain, and offset drainages north of the Dulecha River delimit the area on the north. The Kesem-Kebena-Dulecha area was unknown paleoanthropologically prior to the PIE’s fieldwork, which designated localities with KK (Kesem Kebena) and a unique integer for the locality. The PIE named localities from KK 1 to KK 7, ranging in age from Pliocene (KK 1 and KK 2) through later Pleistocene. Localities are identified by the white, numbered circles on Fig. 1. We continue to follow the nomenclature established by the PIE for consistency’s sake. The most significant discovery of the PIE was the Acheulean lithic and faunal assemblages at the KK 6 locality (Table 1). The PIE took several geological samples, and those from the KK 6 area date to c. 1.0 million years ago (Ma), nearly identical in age to the Harreya Pumice Unit of the Daka Member of the Bouri Formation (Gilbert & Asfaw, 2008).

Book chapter↗
USGS2021

The 2008-2010 subsidence of Dallol volcano on the 2 spreading Erta Ale ridge: InSAR observations and source models

In this work, we study the subsidence of Dallol, an explosive crater and hydrothermal area along the spreading Erta Ale ridge of Afar (Ethiopia). No volcanic products exist at the surface. However, a diking episode in 2004, accompanied by dike-induced faulting, indicates that Dallol is an active volcanic area. The 2004 diking episode was followed by quiescence until subsidence started in 2008. We use InSAR to measure the deformation, and inverse, thermoelastic and poroelastic modelling to understand the possible causes of the subsidence. Analysis of InSAR data from 2004–2010 shows that subsidence, centered at Dallol, initiated in October 2008, and continued at least until February 2010 at an approximately regular rate of up to 10 cm/year. The inversion of InSAR average velocities finds that the source causing the subsidence is shallow (depth between 0.5 and 1.5 km), located under Dallol and with a volume decrease between −0.63 and −0.26 × 10 6 km 3 /year. The most likely explanation for the subsidence of Dallol volcano is a combination of outgassing (depressurization), cooling and contraction of the roof of a shallow crustal magma chamber or of the hydrothermal system.

Dallol volcano↗
USGS2020

He-CO2-N2 isotope and relative abundance characterization of geothermal fluids from the Ethiopian Rift

We report He-CO 2 -N 2 isotopic and relative abundances in free gases and dissolved gas phase of geothermal fluids from the Ethiopian Rift. Fluid samples were collected from ~30 geothermal localities from three key regions throughout rifted and non-rifted areas of Ethiopia. The majority of samples, including off-rift samples, indicate a strong contribution of mantle-derived He-C-N to the fluid samples. Helium ( 3 He/ 4 He) and δ15N-(N 2 ) isotope anomalies are highest (> 15.9RA and > +5.0‰, respectively) at a single locality in south Afar (Sodere), but the maximum δ13C-(CO 2 ) (-0.78‰) is found east of Lake Shalla in the Lake District of the Main Ethiopian Rift. High 3 He/ 4 He values, consistent with mantle plume contributions, are also evident in fluids from the Lake District, where fluids from the Lake Shalla site extend up to 15.5RA. CO 2 / 3 He values span over four orders of magnitude while δ13C-(CO 2 ) values cluster mostly between mantle-like values of -4 and -7‰; only samples east of Lake Shalla display more positive values. Atmospheric-derived nitrogen has likely influenced a number of measured δ15N-(N 2 ) values but following a correction for atmospheric-contamination, the majority of samples reveal positive values (up to 6.5‰) which appear to be coupled to high 3 He/ 4 He values. In regions affected by upwelling mantle plumes, such high values have been interpreted to reflect deep mantle inputs of recycled nitrogen.

Ethiopian Rift↗
USGS2019

Revisiting Herto: New evidence of Homo sapiens from Ethiopia

Localities in the radiometrically dated Upper Herto Member of Ethiopia’s Bouri Formation continue to produce new data that complement and extend initial reports of fossils and artifacts published in 2003. Results of these revisits are reported here and include the in situ recovery of artifacts from the same sediments containing hominid fossils. We evaluate the absolute and relative temporal placement of the Herto discoveries in light of new field observations and in the context of new data from the Omo Kibish Formation of southern Ethiopia. The Upper Herto Member stone tool assemblage includes artifacts normally typologically attributed to both Acheulean and Middle Stone Age industries or technocomplexes. These discoveries and other aspects of continuing Herto research help to elucidate the timing and patterns of technological, behavioral, and anatomical change in Africa during the evolution of our species.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015

In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall was only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount, with both the “belg” (February–May) and “kiremt” rains (June–September) affected. The timing of the rains that did fall was also erratic. Many crops failed, causing food shortages for many millions of people. The role of climate change in the probability of a drought like this is investigated, focusing on the large-scale precipitation deficit in February–September 2015 in northern and central Ethiopia. Using a gridded analysis that combines station data with satellite observations, it is estimated that the return period of this drought was more than 60 years (lower bound 95% confidence interval), with a most likely value of several hundred years. No trend is detected in the observations, but the large natural variability and short time series means large trends could go undetected in the observations. Two out of three large climate model ensembles that simulated rainfall reasonably well show no trend while the third shows an increased probability of drought. Taking the model spread into account the drought still cannot be clearly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, with the 95% confidence interval ranging from a probability decrease between preindustrial and today of a factor of 0.3 and an increase of a factor of 5 for a drought like this one or worse. A soil moisture dataset also shows a nonsignificant drying trend. According to ENSO correlations in the observations, the strong 2015 El Niño did increase the severity of the drought.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2017

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: Examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions

Ethiopia experiences significant climate-induced drought and stress on crop and livestock productivity, contributing to widespread food insecurity. Here, we present subseasonal crop water stress analyses that indicate degrading, growing conditions along Ethiopia’s eastern highlands, including productive and populated highland regions. These seasonally shifting areas of increasing water stress stretch from the north to south across eastern Ethiopia, intersecting regions of acute food insecurity and/or high population. Crop model simulations indicate that between 1982 and 2014, parts of eastern Amhara and eastern Oromia experienced increasing water deficits during the critical sowing, flowering, and ripening periods of crop growth. These trends occurred while population in these regions increased by 143% between 2000 and 2015. These areas of enhanced crop water stress in south-central Ethiopia coincide with regions of high population growth and ongoing crop extensification. Conversely, large regions of relatively unpopulated western Ethiopia are becoming wetter. These areas may therefore be good targets for agricultural development.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2016

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine ( Cryptostegia grandiflora ) in Ethiopia’s Afar region

The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine) in Ethiopia’s Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80) and the final model (test AUC = 0.96). Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local ecological knowledge with species distribution modeling for early detection and targeted surveying of recently established invasive species.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2015

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation ( R 2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships ( R 2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation ( R 2 ) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2014

Multisensor earth observations to characterize wetlands and malaria epidemiology in Ethiopia

Malaria is a major global public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The spatial heterogeneity of malaria can be affected by factors such as hydrological processes, physiography, and land cover patterns. Tropical wetlands, for example, are important hydrological features that can serve as mosquito breeding habitats. Mapping and monitoring of wetlands using satellite remote sensing can thus help to target interventions aimed at reducing malaria transmission. The objective of this study was to map wetlands and other major land cover types in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and to analyze district-level associations of malaria and wetlands across the region. We evaluated three random forests classification models using remotely sensed topographic and spectral data based on Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) and Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery, respectively. The model that integrated data from both sensors yielded more accurate land cover classification than single-sensor models. The resulting map of wetlands and other major land cover classes had an overall accuracy of 93.5%. Topographic indices and subpixel level fractional cover indices contributed most strongly to the land cover classification. Further, we found strong spatial associations of percent area of wetlands with malaria cases at the district level across the dry, wet, and fall seasons. Overall, our study provided the most extensive map of wetlands for the Amhara region and documented spatiotemporal associations of wetlands and malaria risk at a broad regional level. These findings can assist public health personnel in developing strategies to effectively control and eliminate malaria in the region.

Amhara region↗
USGS2014

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km 2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km 2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora . Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Blending local scale information for developing agricultural resilience in Ethiopia

This brief article looks at the intersection of climate, land cover/land use, and population trends in the world's most food insecure country, Ethiopia. As a result of warming in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans, Ethiopia has experienced substantial drying over the past 20 years. We intersect the spatial pattern of this drying with high resolution climatologies, maps of agricultural expansion, population data, and socioeconomic livelihoods information to suggest that the coincidence of drying and agricultural expansion in south-central Ethiopia is likely adversely affecting a densely populated region with high levels of poverty and low wage levels.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2012

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Fact Sheet↗