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Research about Delaware Bay

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Delaware Bay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Stopover population estimate and migration ecology of Red Knots C. c. rufa at Delaware Bay, USA, 2025

Red Knots( Calidris canutus rufa ) rely on Atlantic horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) eggs in the Delaware Bay to refuel during northward migration. Intensive harvest of horseshoe crabs in the 1990s contributed to declines in Red Knot numbers. In 2013, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission adopted an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework to balance sustainable horseshoe crab harvest with ecosystem integrity and Red Knot recovery, requiring annual stopover population estimates. We estimated the 2025 passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay using a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly–Seber mark–resight model which accounts for population turnover and imperfect detection. We also evaluated change in migration timing between 2011 and 2025 with model-derived estimates of arrival at the Delaware Bay each year. The 2025 passage population was 54,043 individuals (95% credible interval: 47,926–61,928), an increase of approximately 17% over 2024 and only the second year since 2011 to exceed 50,000 individuals. Despite the increase, overlapping credible intervals across years indicate a stable stopover population. Migration timing has remained consistent, with 50% of the population typically arriving by 18 May and no evidence of advancement since 2011. These findings provide meaningful input for the ARMframework, supporting sustainable harvest of horseshoe crabs while maintaining adequate foraging opportunities for Red Knots and other shorebirds.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2025

Recovery of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs following harvest reductions

Objective Horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus play a vital role in the Delaware Bay ecosystem. The migratory stopover of several shorebird species occurs during the horseshoe crab spawning season, and the eggs of horseshoe crabs provide an essential food source to fuel their northward migration to breeding areas. High commercial fishery use of horseshoe crabs as bait during the 1990s coincided with a decline in crabs and shorebirds, particularly the red knot Calidris canutus rufa , which has been listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act since 2015. In response to the population decline of shorebirds, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission began reducing the harvest of horseshoe crabs in 2000 with a goal of rebuilding the population of horseshoe crabs and shorebirds that depend upon them. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether horseshoe crab harvest management in the Delaware Bay region has increased the abundance of the species in recent years. Methods We analyzed data from fisheries-independent trawl surveys of horseshoe crab relative abundance using a Bayesian hierarchical model to determine whether harvest management has resulted in the rebuilding of the horseshoe crab population to levels seen in 1990—a period before the overuse of horseshoe crabs and the decline in the population of red knots. Results Data from multiple surveys showed that the horseshoe crab population in Delaware Bay declined from the 1990s through approximately 2005, was relatively low and stable until 2010, and then increased through 2023, with a 0.38 probability of exceeding the 1990 level. Conclusions The results of this analysis support the effectiveness of management decisions related to horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region. In response to harvest restrictions, the abundance of horseshoe crabs has neared levels observed in the early 1990s—a period prior to high commercial use and a decline in both horseshoe crabs and shorebirds that depend on them for food during annual migrations.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey↗
USGS2024

Stopover population estimate and migration ecology of Red Knots C. c. rufa at Delaware Bay, USA, 2024

Red Knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ). Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) and whelk ( Busycotypus canaliculatus and Busycon carica ) fisheries since at least 1990. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots counted during aerial surveys at Delaware Bay declined, leading to conservation concern for Red Knots and shorebirds at Delaware Bay. In 2013, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission began using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework to manage the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat. The ARM framework thus requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and Red Knot stopover population size to recommend annual harvest quotas. We estimated the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2024 using a mark-recapture-resight investigation. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The estimated passage population size in 2024 was 46,127 (95% credible interval: 39,286–57,799), an increase from 2023 (39,361 [33,724–47,556]). Since 2019, the stopover population has fluctuated between approximately 39,000 and 46,000, and appears stable given the broad overlap in the confidence intervals of the annual population estimates. The 2024 Red Knot stopover population estimate will inform decision making in the next horseshoe crab management cycle of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Quantifying salinity in the layered coastal aquifers underlying and adjacent to Delaware Bay USA using AEM-derived resistivity

Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) methods are particularly well suited to coastal aquifer salinity studies, yet the quantitative translation from bulk resistivity to fluid salinity carries uncertainty that can impact mapped salinity distributions and interpretations of the freshwater-saline interface and hydrostratigraphic layers. A recent AEM survey of the region near the Delaware Bay, USA highlights several challenges common to coastal hydrogeologic settings that may influence both qualitative and quantitative interpretation. We use a Bayesian inversion to estimate geophysical parameter uncertainty, and results are integrated with hydrogeologic measurements to develop quantitative interpretations of salinity across the freshwater-saline interface in stacked aquifers.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Application of a catch multiple survey analysis for Atlantic horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay

Objective This paper applies a catch multiple survey analysis (CMSA) to Atlantic horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay to generate robust population estimates for harvest management. Currently, horseshoe crabs along the U.S. Atlantic coast are harvested as bait for other fisheries and collected for their blood, which is used in a biomedical industry. The Delaware Bay is home to the largest population of horseshoe crabs and is a significant stopover for shorebirds to rebuild energy by consuming horseshoe crab eggs prior to completing their northward migration. To address this interrelationship, the Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) Framework has been used since 2013 to ensure that horseshoe crab harvest within the region takes into account the forage needs of migratory birds. Since its inception, the ARM Framework has used a single trawl survey's swept area-based population estimates of horseshoe crab relative abundance and a theoretical population model developed primarily from literature-derived values. With more data collected in the region in recent years and other sources of mortality that can now be quantified, a catch survey model can provide horseshoe crab population estimates going forward. Methods A CMSA was used to estimate male and female horseshoe crab population size for 2003–2021 using all quantifiable sources of mortality and three fishery-independent indices of abundance. Result The CMSA results indicated that adult abundance of male and female horseshoe crabs was stable from 2003 to 2013 and then began to increase through 2017, a result that is consistent with stock rebuilding following a period of harvest restrictions as recommended by the ARM Framework. Population estimates were lower in recent years but remained above the levels estimated before implementation of the ARM Framework. In 2021, the CMSA estimated that there were over 6 million mature females and nearly 16 million mature male horseshoe crabs in the region. Conclusion The CMSA provides the best and most comprehensive population estimates of horseshoe crabs in Delaware Bay and will improve modeling efforts within the ARM Framework going forward.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model

Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migratory stopover or at nonbreeding sites, and the recruitment rate of new breeding adults can be difficult to estimate directly. Here, we present an integrated population model that uses mark-resight and count data to estimate survival probability, population growth rate, and recruitment rate for an Arctic-breeding shorebird of conservation concern, the red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ), from data collected during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA, from 2005 to 2018. At this site, red knots feed primarily on the eggs of spawning horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ), a legally harvested species. We used this model to estimate the relationship between horseshoe crab abundance and red knot demographics, which informed a recent revision to the framework used to establish horseshoe crab harvest regulations. Our analysis indicates that the red knot population was most likely stable from 2005 to 2018 (average λ = 1.03, 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.961, 1.15) despite low recruitment rates (average ρ = 0.088, 95% CRI: 0.012, 0.18). Adult survival probability was positively associated with horseshoe crab abundance in the same year (β = 0.35, 95% CRI: 0.09, 0.63), but we found no effect of horseshoe crab abundance two years previously on recruitment of new adults (β = −0.08, 95% CRI: −0.41, 0.38). Our approach demonstrates the utility of integrated population models for understanding population dynamics, even when data are only available from migratory stopover monitoring.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Red Knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2023

Red Knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ). We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2023. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2023 passage population size was estimated at 39,361 (95% credible interval: 33,724–47,556). Although there is broad overlap in the credible intervals for population estimates from 2020–2023, the population estimate for 2023 was below 40,000 birds for only the second time since 2011. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) and whelk ( Busycon ) fisheries since at least 1990. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots counted during aerial surveys at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000 and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the Arctic breeding grounds, reproduction, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. The 2023 population size estimate will inform harvest recommendations in the next management cycle for decision making by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2022

An evaluation of the reliability of plumage characters for sexing adult Ruddy Turnstones Arenaria interpres morinella during northward passage in eastern North America

We used two datasets to investigate the reliability of plumage for sexing adult Ruddy Turnstones Arenaria interpres of the morinella subspecies during May and early June in Delaware Bay, on the Mid-Atlantic Coast of the United States (39.1202°N, 75.2479°W). We first examined 23 years of data on the capture and recapture of 1,818 individual Ruddy Turnstones to assess the consistency of observers with varying levels of expertise in assigning sex using plumage criteria. Among birds recaptured once, the sex recorded for about 10% differed between captures. This increased to about 16% among birds recaptured more than once. Significantly more birds sexed as females early in the season (during 1–12 May) were later sexed as males than vice versa . This suggests that early-season captures may include birds still in non- (or partial) breeding plumage, which can be confused with female breeding plumage. Second, we compared plumage-based and genetic assessments of sex for 66 Ruddy Turnstones captured in Delaware Bay on 29 May 2016 and 19 May 2017; these individuals were sexed in the hand by an expert on shorebird plumages. Plumage-based and molecular assessments differed in only one case. This suggests that fewer birds will be wrongly sexed on plumage if more care is taken and better instruction is given to observers (including how to distinguish non- breeding plumage from female breeding plumage). We suggest simple procedures to reduce field-sexing errors for Ruddy Turnstones based on plumage.

Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2022

Red knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2022

Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots found at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon) fisheries since at least 1990, and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the breeding grounds, nesting, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2022. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2022 Red Knot mark-resight dataset

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2021

Species-specific demographic and behavioral responses to food availability during migratory stopover

Understanding the effects of migratory stopover site conditions on both demographic rates and migratory behaviors is critical for interpreting changes in passage population sizes at stopover sites and predicting responses to future changes and conservation actions. We used a Bayesian formulation of the open robust design model to analyze mark-resight observations of three migratory shorebird species using Delaware Bay, USA during spring stopover from 2005 to 2018. We tested for an effect of stopover food availability and weather conditions on survival probability and the probability of returning to this site in the next year and found species differences in these relationships. After years with greater food availability, red knot Calidris canutus rufa had higher survival probability but ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres were more likely to return to the site. Estimates of within-year probabilities of arrival and persistence at the stopover site showed relatively consistent migration schedules for ruddy turnstone, but more interannual variation for red knot and sanderling Calidris alba . Shorebird use of this site typically peaked during May 26–28, but the estimated proportion of the population present during this period varied dramatically among years for red knot (range: 0.07–0.59) but less so for ruddy turnstone and sanderling. This demonstrates that both the proportion of the flyway population using this stopover site and the proportion present during a given sampling period vary among years, and both should be considered in analyzing and interpreting monitoring data. Stopover conditions can influence both migratory behavior and demographics, underscoring the importance of flyway-wide monitoring.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2020

The Long-term effect of bleeding for Limulus amebocyte lysate on annual survival and recapture of tagged horseshoe crabs

In the U.S., 525,000 horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus ) per year have been captured during 2013–2017, brought to biomedical facilities, and bled to produce Limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL), then mostly released to the area of capture. The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission estimates short-term bleeding-induced mortality to be 15% (4% to 30%), resulting in mortality of approximately 78,750 horseshoe crabs annually in recent years comprising a minor portion (<13%) of the up to one million annual coastwide landings dominated by harvest for bait. However, the long-term effect of bleeding for LAL on annual survival and spawning behavior is unknown; thus, results from short-term studies alone might underestimate bleeding effects at the population level. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife horseshoe crab tagging database to estimate the differences in survival and recapture rates of bled and not bled horseshoe crabs tagged in the same years and geographic area. Contrary to expectation, survival was not lower for bled crabs compared to unbled crabs. Differences varied, but survival estimates tended to be higher for bled crabs than for unbled crabs. However, biomedical culling and selection for younger or healthier animals could have resulted in biomedically tagged individuals representing a healthier subset of the overall population with subsequent higher survival. Furthermore, the tagging analysis revealed a post-bleeding reduction in capture probability, which could indicate decreased spawning activity, evident in males more than females. Continued tagging of bled and unbled crabs in the same geographic area while recording age class and sex will contribute to the further resolution of LAL production’s effect on horseshoe crab populations.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia↗
USGS2020

Field observations of wind waves in Upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Constructed oyster reefs (CORs) provide shore protections and habitats for fish and shellfish communities via wave energy attenuation. However, the processes and mechanism of CORs on wave attenuation remain unclear, thus limiting the effective assessment of CORs for shoreline protection. This paper presents results of a field investigation on wave characteristics and wave spectral variations along a shoreline with CORs in an estuary with a large tidal range as well as large wind waves and swell energy. Six pressure transducers were deployed from January 31 to April 2, 2018, in Gandy’s Beach, New Jersey, in upper Delaware Bay. CORs were constructed at the study site in 2016 as living shoreline structures after Hurricane Sandy. The data collected from the study site exhibits the wave variations and spectral characteristics over the span of 2 months, including four winter storms (i.e., nor’easters). The spatial variations of wave heights measured on both sides of CORs show a strong dependence on the ratio between the freeboard of CORs and the offshore wave heights. Due to the large tidal range (> 2 m), the crests of CORs remain submerged over 85% of the time. The submerged CORs only provide partial attenuation of wave energy. The wave environment in the estuary is complex, especially during nor’easters. For instance, winds with rapid changing fetches could lead to bi-modal wind seas. Due to the complex wave spectra, the bulk wave heights such as the significant wave heights cannot be adopted to adequately reveal the capacity of CORs to attenuate wave energy. Spectral analysis is conducted to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of wave energy in targeted frequency bins. The spectral analysis results reveal the energy transfer from the primary waves to the high harmonics after waves propagate over the submerged CORs. Moreover, it is found that swell energy originated from the Atlantic Ocean can penetrate CORs without any dampening even when CORs are emergent. This study could help resource managers for in-depth evaluation of living shoreline effectiveness and improvement of living shoreline structures such as CORs.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2019

Effects of individual misidentification on estimates of survival in long-term mark–resight studies

All ecological measurements are subject to error; the effects of missed detection (false negatives) are well known, but the effects of mistaken detection (false positives) are less understood. Long-term capture–recapture datasets provide valuable ecological insights and baselines for conservation and management, but where such studies rely on noninvasive re-encounters, such as field-readable color bands, there is the potential to accumulate detection errors as the length of the study and number of tags deployed increases. We investigated the prevalence and effects of misreads in a 10-yr dataset of Red Knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) marked with field-readable leg flags in Delaware, USA. We quantified the effects of misreads on survival estimation via a simulation study and evaluated whether removal of individuals only reported once in a year (potential misreads) influenced survival estimation from both simulated datasets and our case study data. We found overall apparent error rates of 0.31% (minimum) to 6.6% (maximum). Observer-specific error rates and the variation among observers both decreased with the number of flags an observer recorded. Our simulation study showed that misreads lead to spurious negative trends in survival over time, particularly for long-term studies. Removing all records in which a flag was only recorded once in a sampling occasion reduced bias and eliminated spurious negative trends in survival but also reduced precision in survival estimates. Without data filtering, we found a slight decrease in Red Knot annual survival probability from 2008 to 2018 (β = −0.043 ± 0.03), but removing all single-observation records resulted in no apparent trend (β = −0.0074 ± 0.02). Spurious trends in demographic rates could influence inference about population trajectories and resultant conservation decision-making. Data filtering could eliminate errors, but researchers should carefully consider the tradeoff between precision obtained by larger sample sizes and potential bias due to misreads in their data.

Delaware↗
USGS2014

Avian influenza virus antibodies in Pacific Coast Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa)

Prevalence of avian influenza virus (AIV) antibodies in the western Atlantic subspecies of Red Knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ) is among the highest for any shorebird. To assess whether the frequency of detection of AIV antibodies is high for the species in general or restricted only to C. c. rufa , we sampled the northeastern Pacific Coast subspecies of Red Knot ( Calidris canutus roselaari ) breeding in northwestern Alaska. Antibodies were detected in 90% of adults and none of the chicks sampled. Viral shedding was not detected in adults or chicks. These results suggest a predisposition of Red Knots to AIV infection. High antibody titers to subtypes H3 and H4 were detected, whereas low to intermediate antibody levels were found for subtypes H10 and H11. These four subtypes have previously been detected in shorebirds at Delaware Bay (at the border of New Jersey and Delaware) and in waterfowl along the Pacific Coast of North America.

Alaska, Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2012

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2011

Beach characteristics mitigate effects of onshore wind on horseshoe crab spawning: Implications for matching with shorebird migration in Delaware Bay

Disruption of food availability by unfavorable physical processes at energetically demanding times can limit recruitment of migratory species as predicted by the match–mismatch hypothesis. Identification and protection of disruption‐resistant habitat could contribute to system resilience. For example, horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus spawning and shorebird stopover must match temporally in Delaware Bay for eggs to be available to shorebirds. Onshore winds that generate waves can create a mismatch by delaying horseshoe crab spawning. We examined effects of beach characteristics and onshore winds on spawning activity at five beaches when water temperatures were otherwise consistent with early spawning activity. Onshore winds resulted in reduced spawning activity during the shorebird stopover, when spawning typically peaks in late May. During the period with high onshore wind, egg density was highest on the foreshore exposed to the lowest wave heights. Onshore wind was low in early June, and spawning and egg densities were high at all sites, but shorebirds had departed. Beaches that can serve as a refuge from wind and waves can be identified by physical characteristics and orientation to prevailing winds and should receive special conservation status, especially in light of predicted increases in climate change‐induced storm frequency. These results point to a potential conservation strategy that includes coastal management for adapting to climate change‐induced mismatch of migrations.

Delaware↗