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Research about Colorado

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Colorado.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Hatchery rearing density affects poststocking survival

Objective Research has indicated that salmonids raised in a hatchery and stocked into the wild have lower future survival and reproductive success than wild fish. Understanding whether hatchery rearing practices affect populations after stocking can help to maximize the quality, quantity, and economic value of fish stocked for conservation and recreational purposes. The goal of our study was to test whether and to what extent rearing density affects poststocking survival of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss when stocked into a put-grow-and-take fishery. Methods Rainbow Trout were raised for 3 months in the hatchery at two densities (high = 51,948–13,072 fish/m 3 , rearing index 2.0, 1,260 metric units; low = 12,987–3,268 fish/m 3 , rearing index 0.5, 315 metric units). A subset of the fish were PIT-tagged and stocked into Parvin Lake, Red Feather Lakes, Colorado. Recaptures of tagged fish occurred every 2 weeks for the first 2 months poststocking and at 7 and 12 months poststocking. Results At the time of stocking, there were no statistical differences in Fulton’s condition factor, total length, weight, or hepatosomatic index for each treatment. Recapture data indicated that there was no difference in Fulton’s condition factor and hepatosomatic index after stocking. Apparent poststocking survival was higher for fish raised at low density in the hatchery compared with those raised at high density. Conclusions Our study suggests that rearing density affects fingerling Rainbow Trout poststocking survival. Stocking more fish due to fish being reared at higher densities within the hatchery did not result in more total fish remaining after a year in the lake compared with the low-density treatment. Rearing fish at high densities does not provide a benefit of more fish after stocking and may result in more disease risk in the hatchery.

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Quantifying groundwater response and uncertainty in beaver-influenced mountainous floodplains using machine learning-based model calibration

Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model-data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver-induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning-based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down-valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down-valley underflow, from 2% during dry pond periods to 20% during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down-valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver-induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field-scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response.

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Characterization of suspended sediment flux and streamflow trends in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1998 through 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated long-term suspended sediment flux and streamflow datasets for temporal trends (monotonic and step trends) at 10 streamgage sites within the Fountain Creek watershed in central Colorado using the Mann-Kendall test (monotonic trend) and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (step trend). Data were collected in cooperation with Colorado Springs Stormwater Enterprise. In this study, 10 sites with long-term suspended sediment records were evaluated during their operational periods, which ranged from 1998 through 2022. To assess how stream behavior might relate to shifts in suspended sediment transport, the Richards-Baker flashiness index, a measure of flashiness, was evaluated for each site. The Richards-Baker flashiness index was calculated for the same months as streamflow and suspended sediment (April through September) using all available streamflow data for a given site. Additionally, cumulative double-mass curves were developed to define temporal variation in the relation between streamflow and suspended sediment loads. This was completed by assessing differences in slopes before and after an observed break in the double-mass curve plots. Five streamgage sites showed statistically significant ( p <0.05) negative trends for suspended sediment flux, and nonsignificant decreases were indicated at the other five sites. The statistically significant negative trends are distributed across the watershed and include smaller tributaries and the main stem of Fountain Creek closer to its confluence with the Arkansas River. Such a broad distribution of negative trends is most likely an indication of improved water quality in the watershed with regards to suspended sediment. Assessing causes for the decreases in suspended sediment loads is beyond the scope of this report; however, spatially distributed bank erosion control projects, stormflow retention projects in the watershed, and changes in climate and storm patterns could be some of the potential drivers of the suspended sediment load trends in this watershed. The flashiness of the streamflow was assessed and can be dismissed on the basis of this study as a potential driver of trends in suspended sediment flux because the magnitude of changes was found to be negligible at all sites.

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Bears avoid residential neighborhoods in response to the experimental reduction of anthropogenic attractants

Introduction: Urbanization is an extreme form of land use alteration, with human development driving changes in the distribution of resources available to wildlife. Some large carnivores have learned to exploit anthropogenic food resources in urban development, resulting in human-carnivore conflict that can have detrimental impacts to people and carnivores, as exemplified by American black bears. Management agencies commonly promote the use of bear-resistant garbage containers for reducing conflicts, but little is known about the actual behavioral responses of bears to this intervention. Methods: To understand whether black bears alter their behavior in response to changes in residential waste management, we investigated patterns of bear behavior in Durango, Colorado, where anthropogenic attractants were experimentally manipulated. Using location data from collared black bears, we modeled resource selection and movement in response to areas that had received bear-resistant garbage containers compared to those that did not. Results: Bears avoided residential areas where garbage availability had been reduced, and this avoidance response increased over subsequent years, potentially suggesting that bears were learning from the management intervention. Bear movement rates, however, were not notably affected by the garbage reduction. Discussion: Our findings highlight the importance of reducing the availability of anthropogenic attractants for changing bear behavior and reducing risk of urban human-bear conflict, and that these responses can strengthen over time as bears learn from the management intervention.

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Summary of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado—Information and data gaps

The Cretaceous Mancos Shale is a geologic source of selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin. Natural weathering processes and human activity mobilize selenium from the Mancos Shale and derived materials, and surface water, groundwater, and sediment all affect the transport of selenium from source areas to receiving streams and biota. Selenium accumulates through the aquatic food chain, and its toxic effects can result in invertebrate mortality and mortality, decreased reproduction, and deformities to fish and birds. The Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the State of Colorado and Gunnison River Basin water users, is implementing a Selenium Management Program to reduce selenium concentrations in the lower Gunnison River Basin of Colorado. Goals of the Selenium Management Program are to (1) achieve compliance with the State of Colorado chronic aquatic-life standard for dissolved selenium (4.6 micrograms per liter) in the Gunnison River near Grand Junction, Colorado; (2) sufficiently improve water-quality conditions to assist in the recovery of endangered species in the Gunnison and Colorado Rivers by reducing selenium concentrations; and (3) support continued water uses in the basin. Many previous studies have contributed to the understanding of selenium in the environment; however, monitoring and research data gaps exist in the lower Gunnison River Basin. The purpose of this report is to summarize information regarding selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin and describe strategies for scientific research and monitoring to potentially improve understanding of selenium sources; processes affecting the mobilization, transport, and fate of selenium; and the effects of selenium-mitigation projects in the lower Gunnison River Basin. Monitoring and research data gaps discussed in this report include geologic mapping and geochemical source characterization, long-term and ongoing monitoring of the surface-water and groundwater networks, developing and refining statistical models, characterizing selenium on suspended sediment, modeling selenium in the food web, evaluating best management practices, and more.

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Non-lethal detection of Renibacterium salmoninarum in Greenback Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias comparing mucus, blood, and ovarian fluid samples to kidney tissues

Objective Renibacterium salmoninarum , the causative agent of bacterial kidney disease, poses a major threat to both wild and aquaculture salmonid populations. Traditional detection methods typically involve lethal sampling to collect kidney tissues but are often impractical for species of conservation concern. This study evaluates nonlethal sampling techniques for detecting R. salmoninarum in Greenback Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias by comparing mucus, blood, and ovarian fluid samples to conventional kidney tissue. Methods During the 2019 spawning season, we collected samples from 781 adult fish and tested for R. salmoninarum via direct fluorescent antibody test (DFAT) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Results A total of 25 and 256 kidney tissues were positive by DFAT and qPCR, respectively. Of the three nonlethal samples tested, mucus swabs showed the highest percent correlation for detection with positive kidney tissues (DFAT = 47.6%, qPCR = 41.7%). Blood and ovarian fluid samples showed a lower percent correlation with positive kidney tissues (blood: DFAT = 12.0%, qPCR = 1.2%; ovarian fluid: DFAT = 12.5%, qPCR = 21.4%). Conclusions Our results suggest that nonlethal mucus swabbing could serve as a practical alternative for monitoring R. salmoninarum, especially in conservation efforts where minimizing fish mortality is critical.

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Contribution of traffic emissions to PM2.5 concentrations at bus stops in Denver, Colorado

Individuals are routinely exposed to traffic-related air pollution on their commutes, which has significant health impacts. Mitigating exposure to traffic-related pollution is a key urban sustainability concern. In Denver, Colorado, low-income Americans are more likely to rely on buses and spend time waiting at bus stops. Evaluating the contribution of traffic emissions at bus stops can provide important information on risks experienced by these populations. We measured PM 2.5 constituents at eight bus stops and one background reference site in Denver, in the summer of 2023. Source profiles, including gasoline emissions from traffic, were estimated using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis of PM 2.5 constituents collected at a Chemical Speciation Network site in our study region. The contributions of the different sources at each bus stop were estimated by regressing the vector of species concentrations at each site (dependent variable) on the source-profile matrix from the PMF analysis (independent variables). Traffic-related emissions (~2.5–6.6 μg/m 3 ) and secondary organics (~3–5 μg/m 3 ) contributed to PM 2.5 at the bus stops in our dataset. The highest traffic-related emissions-derived PM 2.5 concentrations were observed at bus stops near local sources: a gas station and a car wash. The contribution of traffic-related emissions was lower at the background site (~1 μg/m 3 ).

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Low genetic diversity in populations of a clonal invasive plant limits sexual reproduction

Premise Clonality, a form of asexual reproduction and spread, is common among invasive plants, though sexual reproduction via seeds is often still important for their long-range dispersal. In small populations, clonality has been hypothesized to interfere with sexual reproduction by limiting outcrossing opportunities of a plant. Methods We developed a structural equation model based on estimates of genetic diversity and seed production of Lepidium draba , a problematic invasive clonal plant, at 26 sites in Colorado to test whether site characteristics relating to small founder populations resulted in low genetic diversity and sexual reproduction. The next year, in pollen supplementation experiments at six sites (three with high genetic diversity, three with low), we tested whether populations with low genetic diversity were limited by non-self pollen. Results Large populations and populations associated with rivers tended to have higher genetic diversity. Percentage seed fill and total seed production were considerably higher at sites with higher genetic diversity. At populations with low genetic diversity, supplementation with pollen from outside of the site, but not from within the site, increased seed production. At populations with high genetic diversity, pollen supplementation from off-site did not increase seed production. Conclusions Our study shows that, in low-diversity populations that are dominated by a few large clones, L. draba produces few seeds compared to high-diversity populations and that this appears to be due to limited availability of non-self pollen. The data indicate that low genetic diversity decreases sexual reproduction, which may greatly reduce long-distance dispersal from these populations.

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Remote sensing of chlorophyll a and temperature to support algal bloom monitoring in Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado

We present methods to reconstruct historical chlorophyll a and surface water temperatures from satellite-based remote sensing products for Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado, to support algal bloom monitoring. A machine learning model was trained to construct chlorophyll a concentrations from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentrations (out of bag RMSE = 1.9 μg/L, R 2 = 0.63) and reconstruct summertime chlorophyll a concentrations over the entire reservoir from 2016 through 2023. Concurrently, we developed an approach to retrieve remotely sensed water temperatures from the Landsat collection 2 provisional surface temperature product (MAE = 0.6°C) and reconstructed summertime surface water temperature records from 2000 through 2023. Finally, we demonstrate how the reconstructed chlorophyll a and temperature records can yield insight on reservoir dynamics. The chlorophyll a records indicate that algal blooms have a consistent spatial pattern across multiple years, initiating in the eastern end of the reservoir and spreading to the west over time. Water temperatures increased at a linearized rate of 0.3°C per decade from 2000 through 2023 and were inversely proportional to reservoir water surface elevation. Finally, mean summer remotely sensed chlorophyll a concentration had a moderately positive correlation with mean summer remotely sensed water temperature.

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Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

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Sinoatrial contracaeciasis in Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum ) and Plains Topminnow ( Fundulus sciadicus ) from the South Platte drainage, Colorado

Intra-sinoatrial nematodes were incidentally recognized in wild-caught Colorado Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum , JD) in 2020–2021 and in Colorado Plains Topminnow ( Fundulus sciadicus , PTM) in 2023-2024. PTM and JD were evaluated histologically. Nematodes dissected from PTM were used for morphologic evaluation and molecular identification. The first and second internal transcribed spacers (ITS1 and ITS2) of ribosomal DNA were sequenced. Sinoatrial nematodes were found in two of 1232 JD (0.2%) and nine of 110 PTM (8.2%). Worms caused dilation or aneurysm of the sinus venosus. One JD had severe sinus venosus phlebitis. Morphologic, histologic and molecular features were diagnostic for Contracaecum spp. This is the first identification of larval Contracaecum in PTM, the first record of an intravascular nematode in this species, and the first documentation of vascular localization of Contracaecum larvae in JD. Vascular pathology could result in increased susceptibility to predation and favour the completion of the nematode life cycle. Parasites could become detrimental to population survival, especially those that are stressed by ecological and anthropogenic factors.

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A method to obtain remotely sensed grain size distributions from nonplanar granular deposits

Constraining the grain size distribution of granular deposits with complex surfaces is difficult with existing approaches. Field and laboratory techniques are time consuming and limited by the maximum grain size that laboratories can accommodate. In this study, we present a new method to identify the coarse fraction of the grain size distribution at a debris-flow fan deposit surveyed with terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA. This method is a novel grain segmentation algorithm developed for application to point cloud data of deposits with complex surfaces and angular grains ranging in size from centimeters to a meter. This approach combines an existing random forest machine learning method with a novel iterative clustering algorithm. We compared the grain size distribution from our algorithm with a Wolman pebble count conducted in the field, and found a root mean squared error of less than 2 cm from the 5th to 95th percentile of the grain size distribution of grains ranging from cobble to boulder sized (6.3–78 cm in our application). Finally, we compared our new algorithm with an existing open-source grain segregation algorithm, and our method outperformed the selected alternative when applied to the debris-flow deposit point cloud.

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Characterizing water-quality response after the 2020 Cameron Peak Fire using a novel application of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method

The frequency and severity of wildfire activity in the western United States emphasises the utility of hydrologic models to predict water-quality response. This study presents a novel application of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge and Season (WRTDS) method to assess potential changes in water quality in two watersheds draining the North Fork Big Thompson River and Buckhorn Creek in Larimer County, Colorado that were affected by the 2020 Cameron Peak Fire. WRTDS models were developed using 12 years of pre-fire data and used to estimate the expected constituent concentrations for each sample collected in the post-fire record. The predicted constituent concentrations modelled in this manner are representative of conditions in the absence of fire and allow pre-fire and post-fire stream chemistry to be quantitatively compared. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations showed the greatest differences between the observed and predicted concentrations, which were up to 153% greater than expected. We linked changes in source inputs and elevation as likely controls on the difference in magnitude and timing of response between the two watersheds. Post-fire arsenic and manganese concentrations were greater than the predicted concentrations in both watersheds, with arsenic up to 42% greater and manganese up to 85% greater than the model predictions. Post-fire calcium, magnesium, chloride and sulphate concentrations were greater than model predictions at the North Fork and less than the predictions at Buckhorn. We argue that greater burn severity at Buckhorn likely reduced soil–water infiltration and led to bypassed subsurface flow paths through a major lithologic source of these constituents. Post-fire changes in total organic carbon and dissolved iron concentrations were weakly supported by the model results, as observed concentrations were largely within the bounds of expected values calculated from the pre-fire model. The novel approach to WRTDS presented in this study could be a useful tool for water-quality assessments after land disturbances in the western United States.

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Assessing nonpoint-source uranium pollution in an irrigated stream-aquifer system

Uranium (U) in rocks and soils of arid and semi-arid environments can be mobilized by irrigation and fertilization, posing environmental and health risks. Elevated U, along with selenium (Se) and nitrate (NO 3 ) co-constituents, necessitates careful monitoring and management. We developed a distributed-parameter numerical model to assess U pollution in an irrigated stream-aquifer system, applying it to a 552 km 2 region in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV) over 14 years. A MODFLOW model, describing groundwater and stream flow, was coupled with an RT3D-OTIS model to portray reactive U transport. Calibration using the PESTPP-iES iterative ensemble smoother (iES) software indicated good agreement with observed U concentrations. The model revealed substantial and variable U levels across the LARV, highlighting potential hotspots and possible contributing factors, such as geological composition of the bedrock and near-surface shale and aquifer sediments derived from them, irrigation practices, and riparian landscape. U levels exceed the chronic standard (85th percentile = 30 μg/L, set by the US Environmental Protection Agency), which is the permissible regulatory threshold, in groundwater across 44 % of the region and along the river by an average factor of 2.9. Simulated average U concentrations in the non-riparian aquifer and river are 124 μg/L and 60 μg/L, respectively, compared with 112 μg/L and 62 μg/L for measured values. The average 85th percentile U concentration is 222 μg/L in the aquifer and 82 μg/L in the river. Average simulated U mass loading to the river is 0.17 kg/day per km, compared to an estimated 0.23 kg/day per km. Findings provide a baseline for comparing future simulated outcomes of alternative best management practices (BMPs) for U pollution mitigation and offer a methodology applicable to other irrigated regions.

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Climate-driven sulfate export in alpine watersheds may stimulate methylmercury production

Climate change is increasing sulfate export and changing wetland extent in mountain regions. These changes may increase microbially mediated production of the neurotoxic substance methylmercury due to enhanced sulfate metabolism in mountain environments. Here, we assess methylmercury concentrations and formation rates across high-elevation wetlands in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We also investigate sulfate controls on methylmercury production within subalpine peatlands by amending soils with sulfate to mimic increased stream export of sulfate from the alpine zone and measuring methylmercury formation rates for different sulfate treatments. We found that subalpine peatlands have statistically significant higher methylmercury concentrations and formation rates compared to alpine, mineral-soil wetlands. Methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands also increased significantly ( p < 0.05) following sulfate additions; the highest rates occurred in sediments with intermediate extractable sulfate concentrations (∼0.60–1.4 mg sulfate g −1 dry soil). Our study is the first to identify soil sulfate-related thresholds for methylmercury production and sulfate-limitation of methylmercury production in subalpine peatlands. These findings highlight important linkages between climate-driven mineral weathering and mercury cycling in mountain regions globally.

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Mobile radar provides insights into hydrologic responses in burn areas

Background Wildfires often occur in mountainous terrain, regions that pose substantial challenges to operational meteorological and hydrologic observing networks. Aims A mobile, post-fire hydrometeorological observatory comprising remote-sensing and in situ instrumentation was developed and deployed in a burnt area to provide unique insights into rainfall-induced post-fire hazards. Methods Mobile radar-based rainfall estimates were produced throughout the burn area at 75-m resolution and compared with rain gauge accumulations and basin response variables. Key results The mobile radar was capable of resolving details in intra-basin rain fields as well as detecting storms approaching the burn area with accuracy equivalent to rain gauges. Runoff responses were complex and dependent on spatiotemporal patterns and magnitude of rainfall intensity over the burn area. Conclusions The complement of the mobile radar with the near-field, non-contact instruments measuring the hydrologic response provided valuable information in regions that are difficult to access and are not routinely monitored by conventional observing networks. Implications Post-fire observatories equipped with mobile radars deployed on burn areas provide real-time data, early alerting capabilities and visualizations to potentially guide impact-based decision support for local authorities.

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The Hardscrabble Creek complex: A newly discovered, mostly buried, Mesoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic pluton in the Wet Mountains, Colorado, USA

The origin of prolific ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism between the southwestern USA and eastern Canada is enigmatic and has been explained by various models, including extensional, mantle plume, and convergent plate-margin models. Rare mafic plutons are associated with the ferroan plutons, which may help constrain their mantle source and tectonic setting. In the southwestern USA, only two such mafic plutons are known to exist. We present the first evidence for a third, mostly buried, potentially layered, mafic-ultramafic Mesoproterozoic pluton, informally referred to as the Hardscrabble Creek complex, in the central Wet Mountains of Colorado, USA. Recent geophysical data show an elliptical magnetic and gravity high spatially coincident with local gabbroic outcrops. New field and petrographic analyses of these exposed rocks reveal that they consist of ultramafic to mafic cumulates, including orthopyroxenite, olivine norite, norite, and anorthosite. High-precision U-Pb dating of zircon from orthopyroxenite and norite yield weighted mean 206 Pb/ 238 U dates of 1352.36 ± 1.60 Ma and 1352.37 ± 1.71 Ma, respectively. These dates indicate that the complex formed over a narrow timeframe, after the adjacent 1362 ± 7 Ma ferroan San Isabel Granite, and during the waning stages of the regional ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism. Whole-rock geochemistry and Nd-Sr-Pb isotope compositions of samples from the Hardscrabble Creek complex are similar to those of the San Isabel Granite, suggesting that they were derived from the same or a similar mantle source. The mineral chemistry of the samples is comparable to Proterozoic massif-type anorthosites and related mafic intrusions, indicating that the Hardscrabble Creek complex and San Isabel Granite together represent a rare anorthosite-mangerite-charnockite-granite (AMCG) suite in the southwestern USA. The Hardscrabble Creek complex is unique because it formed ~80 m.y. after the other few mafic plutons in the southwestern USA, and it contains an ultramafic section that is absent from these plutons and rare to the AMCG suite in general. A combination of arc-like whole-rock geochemistry, chondrite uniform reservoir-like Nd-Sr-Pb isotopes, and ocean island basalt (OIB)-like zircon trace element chemistry suggests that the complex was derived from a partial melt of OIB-like mantle and interacted with metasomatically enriched lithospheric mantle. The enriched lithospheric mantle signature, combined with the long ~160 m.y. duration of magmatism in the region, is consistent with a period of protracted convergent tectonism.

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Fine-resolution satellite remote sensing improves spatially distributed snow modeling to near real time

Given the highly variable distribution of seasonal snowpacks in complex mountainous environments, the accurate snow modeling of basin-wide snow water equivalent (SWE) requires a spatially distributed approach at a sufficiently fine grid resolution (<500 m) to account for the important processes in the seasonal evolution of a snowpack (e.g., wind redistribution of snow to resolve patchy snow cover in an alpine zone). However, even well-validated snow evolution models, such as SnowModel, are prone to errors when key model inputs, such as the precipitation and wind speed and direction, are inaccurate or only available at coarse spatial resolutions. Incorporating fine-spatial-resolution remotely sensed snow-covered area (SCA) information into spatially distributed snow modeling has the potential to refine and improve fine-resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates. This study developed 30 m resolution SnowModel simulations across the Big Thompson River, Fraser River, Three Lakes, and Willow Creek Basins, a total area of 4212 km 2 in Colorado, for the water years 2000–2023, and evaluated the incorporation of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat SCA datasets into the model’s development and calibration. The SnowModel was calibrated spatially to the Landsat mean annual snow persistence (SP) and temporally to the MODIS mean basin SCA using a multi-objective calibration procedure executed using Latin hypercube sampling and a stepwise calibration process. The Landsat mean annual SP was also used to further optimize the SnowModel simulations through the development of a spatially variable precipitation correction field. The evaluations of the SnowModel simulations using the Airborne Snow Observatories’ (ASO’s) light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived SWE estimates show that the versions of the SnowModel calibrated to the remotely sensed SCA had an improved performance (mean error ranging from −28 mm to −6 mm) compared with the baseline simulations (mean error ranging from 69 mm to 86 mm), and comparable spatial patterns to those of the ASO, especially at the highest elevations. Furthermore, this study’s results highlight how a regularly updated 30 m resolution SCA could be used to further improve the calibrated SnowModel simulations to near real time (latency of 5 days or less).

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