Geology topics

Research about Chesapeake Bay watershed

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Chesapeake Bay watershed.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2022

The statistical power to detect regional temporal trends in riverine contaminants in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Chemical contamination of riverine ecosystems is largely a result of urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural activities occurring on adjacent terrestrial landscapes. Land management activities (e.g., Best Management Practices) are an important tool used to reduce point and non-point sources of pollution. However, the ability to confidently make inferences about the efficacy of land management activities on reducing in-stream chemical concentrations is poorly understood. We estimated regional temporal trends and components of variation for commonly used herbicides (atrazine and metolachlor), total estrogenicity, and riverine sediment concentrations of total PCBs for rivers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We then used the estimated variance components to perform a power analysis and evaluated the statistical power to detect regional temporal trends under different monitoring scenarios. Scenarios included varying the magnitude of the annual contaminant decline, the number of sites sampled each year, the number of years sampled, and sampling frequency. Monitoring for short time periods (e.g., 5 years) was inadequate for detecting regional temporal trends, regardless of the number of sites sampled or the magnitude of the annual declines. Even when monitoring over a 20-year period, sampling a relatively large number of sites each year was required (e.g., > 50 sites) to achieve adequate statistical power for smaller trend magnitudes (declines of 5 – 7%/year). Annual sampling frequency had little impact on power for any monitoring scenario. All sampling scenarios were underpowered for sediment total PCBs. Power was greatest for total estrogenicity, suggesting that this aggregate measure of estrogenic activity may be a useful indicator. This study provides information that can be used to help (1) guide the development of monitoring programs aimed at detecting regional declines in riverine chemical contaminant concentrations in response to land management actions, and (2) set expectations for the ability to detect changes over time.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

Quantifying the response of nitrogen speciation to hydrology in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using a multilevel modeling approach

Excessive nitrogen (N) inputs to coastal waters can lead to severe eutrophication and different chemical forms of N exhibit varying levels of effectiveness in fueling primary production. Efforts to mitigate N fluxes from coastal watersheds are often guided by models that predict changes in N loads as a function of changes in land use, management practices, and climate. However, relatively little is known on the impacts of such changes on the relative fractions of different N forms. We leveraged a long-term dataset of N loads from over 100 river stations to investigate how the fraction, that is, the ratio of to total N ( /TN), changes as a function of spatio-temporal changes in TN loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We built a hierarchical model that separates the response of to changes in TN load occurring at different scales: Across river stations, where differences in TN loads are largely driven by spatial differences in anthropogenic inputs, and within stations, where inter-annual variability in hydrology is a key driver of changes in TN loads. Results suggest that while increases in TN loads resulting from changes in anthropogenic inputs lead to an increase in the fraction, a decrease in the fraction may occur when increases in TN loads are driven by increased streamflow. These results are especially relevant in watersheds that may experience changes in N loads due to both management decisions and climate-driven changes in hydrology.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

USGS Chesapeake Science Strategy 2021-2025

The Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is a national treasure that provides almost $100 billion annually of goods and services. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), is one of the largest federal-state restoration partnerships in the United States and is underpinned by rigorous science. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a pivotal role as a science provider for assessing ecosystem condition and response in the Chesapeake watershed. Despite significant CBP accomplishments, the pressures of climate change and competing demands on land use and change require an acceleration of progress towards the 10 goals in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. USGS Chesapeake studies are increasing efforts to provide integrated science and are engaging stakeholders to inform the multi-faceted restoration and conservation decisions to improve habitat for fish and waterfowl, and socio-economic benefits to the 18 million people living in the watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2021

Perfluoroalkyl substances in plasma of smallmouth bass from the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu is an economically important sportfish and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed has experienced a high prevalence of external lesions, infectious disease, mortality events, reproductive endocrine disruption and population declines. To date, no clear or consistent associations with contaminants measured in fish tissue or surface water have been found. Therefore, plasma samples from two sites in the Potomac River and two in the Susquehanna River drainage basins, differing in land-use characteristics, were utilized to determine if perfluoroalkyl substances were present. Four compounds, perfluorooctane sulphonic acid (PFOS), perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluorododecanoic acid (PFDoA), were detected in every fish. Two additional compounds, perfluorooctane sulphonamide (PFOSA) and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), were less commonly detected at lower concentrations, depending on the site. Concentrations of PFOS (up to 574 ng/mL) were the highest detected and varied significantly among sites. No seasonal differences (spring versus fall) in plasma concentrations were observed. Concentrations of PFOS were not significantly different between the sexes. However, PFUnA and PFDoA concentrations were higher in males than females. Both agricultural and developed land-use appeared to be associated with exposure. Further research is needed to determine if these compounds could be affecting the health of smallmouth bass and identify sources.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2021

Linking altered flow regimes to biological condition: An example using benthic macroinvertebrates in small streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Regionally scaled assessments of hydrologic alteration for small streams and its effects on freshwater taxa are often inhibited by a low number of stream gages. To overcome this limitation, we paired modeled estimates of hydrologic alteration to a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity data for 4522 stream reaches across the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Using separate random-forest models, we predicted flow status (inflated, diminished, or indeterminant) for 12 published hydrologic metrics (HMs) that characterize the main components of flow regimes. We used these models to predict each HM status for each stream reach in the watershed, and linked predictions to macroinvertebrate condition samples collected from streams with drainage areas less than 200 km 2 . Flow alteration was calculated as the number of HMs with inflated or diminished status and ranged from 0 (no HM inflated or diminished) to 12 (all 12 HMs inflated or diminished). When focused solely on the stream condition and flow-alteration relationship, degraded macroinvertebrate condition was, depending on the number of HMs used, 3.8–4.7 times more likely in a flow-altered site; this likelihood was over twofold higher in the urban-focused dataset (8.7–10.8), and was never significant in the agriculture-focused dataset. Logistic regression analysis using the entire dataset showed for every unit increase in flow-alteration intensity, the odds of a degraded condition increased 3.7%. Our results provide an indication of whether altered streamflow is a possible driver of degraded biological conditions, information that could help managers prioritize management actions and lead to more effective restoration efforts.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary . The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2021

Groundwater discharges as a source of phytoestrogens and other agriculturally derived contaminants to streams

Groundwater discharge zones in streams are important habitats for aquatic organisms. The use of discharge zones for thermal refuge and spawning by fish and other biota renders them susceptible to potential focused discharge of groundwater contamination. Currently, there is a paucity of information about discharge zones as a potential exposure pathway of chemicals to stream ecosystems. Using thermal mapping technologies to locate groundwater discharges, shallow groundwater and surface water from three rivers in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA were analyzed for phytoestrogens, pesticides and their degradates, steroid hormones, sterols and bisphenol A. A Bayesian censored regression model was used to compare groundwater and surface water chemical concentrations. The most frequently detected chemicals in both ground and surface water were the phytoestrogens genistein (79%) and formononetin (55%), the herbicides metolachlor (50%) and atrazine (74%), and the sterol cholesterol (88%). There was evidence suggesting groundwater discharge zones could be a unique exposure pathway of chemicals to surface water systems, in our case, metolachlor sulfonic acid (posterior mean concentration = 150 ng/L in groundwater and 4.6 ng/L in surface water). Our study also demonstrated heterogeneity of chemical concentration in groundwater discharge zones within a stream for the phytoestrogen formononetin, the herbicides metolachlor and atrazine, and cholesterol. Results support the hypothesis that discharge zones are an important source of exposure of phytoestrogens and herbicides to aquatic organisms. To manage critical resources within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, more work is needed to characterize exposure in discharge zones more broadly across time and space.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

USGS2021

Chesapeake Bay: A case study in resiliency and restoration

Chesapeake Bay (“mother of waters” or the “great shellfish Bay” in Algonquin), is the largest estuary in the United States and arguably the best studied estuary in the world. Chesapeake Bay is immense, with the main stem stretching 200 nautical miles (315 km) from the mouth of the Susquehanna River to its terminus at the Atlantic Ocean and an overall watershed encompassing 64,000 mi2 (165,000 km2). The mainstem, tributaries, and Bay islands form thousands of miles of coastline (Figure 1). Because of its prominence in estuarine science and ecosystem restoration, developing a working knowledge of Chesapeake Bay science and restoration is important. Hopefully, this overview will whet the appetite to learn more from information available both in the scientific literature and on the Chesapeake Bay Program website www.chesapeakebay.net

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Factors affecting nitrate concentrations in stream base flow

Elevated nitrogen concentrations in streams and rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have adversely affected the ecosystem health of the bay. Much of this nitrogen is derived as nitrate from groundwater that discharges to streams as base flow. In this study, boosted regression trees (BRTs) were used to relate nitrate concentrations in base flow ( n = 156) to explanatory variables describing nitrogen sources, geology, and soil and catchment characteristics. From these relations, a BRT model was developed to predict base flow nitrate concentrations in streams throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The highest base flow nitrate concentrations were associated with intensive agricultural land use, carbonate geology, and sparse riparian canopy, which suggested that reduced nitrogen inputs, particularly over carbonate terrane, are critical for limiting nitrate concentrations. The lowest nitrate concentrations in the BRT model were associated with extensive riparian canopy, high levels of organic carbon in soils, and suboxic conditions at shallow depths, which suggested that denitrification in the subsurface, particularly in the riparian zone, is limiting base flow nitrate concentrations. Nitrate transport from aquifers to streams can take decades to occur, resulting in decades-long lag times between the time when a land-use activity is implemented and when its effects are fully observed in streams. Predictive models of base flow nitrate concentrations in streams will help identify which portions of a watershed are likely to have large fractions of total stream nitrogen load derived from pathways with significant lag times.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, North Carolina, Penn↗

USGS2020

Spatial and temporal patterns of low streamflow and precipitation changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Spatial and temporal patterns in low streamflows were investigated for 183 streamgages located in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed for the period 1939–2013. Metrics that represent different aspects of the frequency and magnitude of low streamflows were examined for trends: (1) the annual time series of seven‐day average minimum streamflow, (2) the scaled average deficit at or below the 2% mean daily streamflow value relative to a base period between 1939 and 1970, and (3) the annual number of days below the 2% threshold. Trends in these statistics showed spatial cohesion, with increasing low streamflow volume at streamgages located in the northern uplands of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and decreasing low streamflow volume at streamgages in the southern part of the watershed. For a small subset of streamgages (12%), conflicting trend patterns were observed between the seven‐day average minimum streamflow and the below‐threshold time series and these appear to be related to upstream diversions or the influence of reservoir‐influenced streamflows in their contributing watersheds. Using multivariate classification techniques, mean annual precipitation and fraction of precipitation falling as snow appear to be broad controls of increasing and decreasing low‐flow trends. Further investigation of seasonal precipitation patterns shows summer rainfall patterns, driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as the main driver of low streamflows in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2020

Effects of early life stage exposure of largemouth bass to atrazine or a model estrogen (17α-ethinylestradiol)

Endocrine disrupting contaminants are of continuing concern for potentially contributing to reproductive dysfunction in largemouth and smallmouth bass in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) and elsewhere. Exposures to atrazine (ATR) have been hypothesized to have estrogenic effects on vertebrate endocrine systems. The incidence of intersex in male smallmouth bass from some regions of CBW has been correlated with ATR concentrations in water. Fish early life stages may be particularly vulnerable to ATR exposure in agricultural areas, as a spring influx of pesticides coincides with spawning and early development. Our objectives were to investigate the effects of early life stage exposure to ATR or the model estrogen 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) on sexual differentiation and gene expression in gonad tissue. We exposed newly hatched largemouth bass (LMB, Micropterus salmoides ) from 7 to 80 days post-spawn to nominal concentrations of 1, 10, or 100 µg ATR/L or 1 or 10 ng EE2/L and monitored histological development and transcriptomic changes in gonad tissue. We observed a nearly 100% female sex ratio in LMB exposed to EE2 at 10 ng/L, presumably due to sex reversal of males. Many gonad genes were differentially expressed between sexes. Multidimensional scaling revealed clustering by gene expression of the 1 ng EE2/L and 100 µg ATR/L-treated male fish. Some pathways responsive to EE2 exposure were not sex-specific. We observed differential expression in male gonad in LMB exposed to EE2 at 1 ng/L of several genes involved in reproductive development and function, including star , cyp11a2 , ddx4 (previously vasa ), wnt5b , cyp1a and samhd1 . Expression of star , cyp11a2 and cyp1a in males was also responsive to ATR exposure. Overall, our results confirm that early development is a sensitive window for estrogenic endocrine disruption in LMB and are consistent with the hypothesis that ATR exposure induces some estrogenic responses in the developing gonad. However, ATR-specific and EE2-specific responses were also observed.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, V↗

USGS2020

Aquatic invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay drainage—Research-based needs and priorities of U.S. Geological Survey partners and collaborators

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is revising the Chesapeake Bay-based science plan to align it with recent U.S. Department of Interior and USGS science priorities that include, as stated in the plan, providing “an integrated understanding of the factors affecting fish habitat, fish health, and landscape conditions” in Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. A report of partner agencies’ needs and priorities related to aquatic invasive species (AIS) science was identified as an informational gap; a report would help to further development of the science program related to aquatic animal health and habitat. This objective was addressed through review of pertinent documentation and conversations with representatives of State, Federal, and regional agencies with vested interests in AIS management in Chesapeake Bay and the Chesapeake Bay drainage area, and this document was produced to summarize the related findings. All agencies and organizations (13) reported that AIS are of general concern, with most stakeholder groups reporting AIS-related issues to be of high priority, including invasive fishes and invertebrates, invasive plants, and microbes including aquatic animal pathogens. Invasive fishes are of great concern to all partner agencies. Channa argus (northern snakehead) and Ictalurus furcatus (blue catfish) are high priority and represent the two most named AIS of concern for these agencies. Nine of 10 stakeholder groups listed northern snakehead as a high priority species, and 6 listed blue catfish as a high priority species as well. Pylodictis olivaris (flathead catfish), invasive crayfish species , and dressenid mussels were also prioritized by multiple partner groups, each receiving specific mention by at least 3 of the 10 stakeholder groups in discussions or documents. Invasive carp, such as Hypophthalmichthys molatrix (silver carp), also received mention by multiple agencies (3 of the 10 stakeholder groups) because these fish represent priority AIS in nearby watersheds and a threat for introduction and dissemination within the Chesapeake Bay watershed from these neighboring regions. Invasive plants are among priority species, and Hydrilla verticillata (hydrilla) topped the list. Hydrilla was reported as a priority species by 5 of the stakeholder groups queried. Trapa natans and T. bispinosa (water chestnut), Phragmites australis (common reed), and Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) were also among the aquatic invasive plants that were prioritized by multiple partner agencies. Multiple stakeholder groups (5 of the 10 groups) also considered Didymosphenia geminata (didymo) and various aquatic animal pathogens among their priority AIS for management considerations. Science needs that were recurrently indicated by stakeholders to support management of invasive species include Technology to enhance biosurveillance capability, such as reliable environmental DNA based detection methodology; Risk assessment modeling to forewarn of and prioritize AIS-related threats; Increased information and intervention methods related to vectors and pathways of AIS introductions; Increased information about the biology and life history of AIS, including information related to trophic interactions, health and disease, and distribution and abundance; and Potential applications of mitigation strategies, including genetically based biocontrol mechanisms. Potential next steps to address the science needs include Development of biosurveillance and risk assessment tools for identification of AIS in proactive management; Development of proactive management techniques to prevent AIS introductions through recognized vectors and pathways; Development of interagency biosurveillance programs to best utilize personnel, funds, and other resources among interested agencies and organizations; Investigations to address life history, consequences, and movement/dissemination of top priority invasive species in the region; Investigations to determine the potential for novel mitigation technologies, such as the application of synthetic biological (genetic) control methods; and Investigations with focus on emerging and high priority AIS in the region, including fishes (blue catfish, flathead catfish, northern snakehead), invertebrates (invasive crayfish and mollusks) and plants (hydrilla, water chestnut, phragmites).

Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, Penns↗

USGS2020

Factors driving nutrient trends in streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although water-quality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2020

Sediment dynamics and implications for management: State of the science from long‐term research in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

This review aims to synthesize the current knowledge of sediment dynamics using insights from long‐term research conducted in the watershed draining to the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S., to inform management actions to restore the estuary and its watershed. The sediment dynamics of the Chesapeake are typical of many impaired watersheds and estuaries around the world, and this synthesis is intended to be relevant and transferable to other sediment‐impaired systems. The watershed's sediment sources, transport, delivery, and impacts are discussed with implications for effectively implementing best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate sediment issues. This synthesis revealed three key issues to consider when planning actions to reduce sediment loading: Scale, time, and land use. Geology and historical land use generated a template that current land use and climate, in addition to management, are acting upon to control sediment delivery. Important sediment sources in the Chesapeake include the Piedmont physiographic region, urban, and agricultural land use, and streambank erosion of headwater streams, whereas floodplain trapping is important along larger streams and rivers. Implementation of BMPs is widespread and is predicted to lead to decreased sediment loading; however, reworking of legacy sediment stored in stream valleys, with potentially long residence times in storage, can delay and complicate detection of the effects of BMPs on sediment loads. In conclusion, the improved understanding of sediment sources, storage areas, and transport lag times reviewed here can help target choices of BMP types and locations to better manage sediment problems—for both local streams and receiving waters.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virgin↗

USGS2020

Estimating the effect of winter cover crops on nitrogen leaching using cost-share enrollment data, satellite remote sensing, and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling

This study employed a novel combination of data (winter cover crop cost-share enrollment records, satellite remote sensing of wintertime vegetation, and results of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) water quality simulations) to estimate the environmental performance of winter cover crops (WCC) at the watershed scale, from 2008 through 2017, within the Tuckahoe sub-watershed of the Choptank River. The Choptank is a river basin within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and, as a focus watershed for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), has been the subject of considerable study assessing linkages between land use and water quality. Farm enrollment data from the Maryland Agricultural Cost Share (MACS) program documented a strong increase in the use of WCC within the Tuckahoe watershed during the study period, from 27% of corn fields and 9% of soybean fields in 2008 to 89% of corn fields and 46% of soybean fields in 2016. Satellite remote sensing of wintertime ground cover detected increased wintertime vegetation following corn crops, in comparison to full season and double cropped soybean, consistent with patterns of cover crop implementation. Although inter-annual variation in climate strongly affected observed levels of vegetation, with warm winters resulting in increased vegetative cover, a 30-year analysis of wintertime greenness revealed significant increases in wintertime vegetation associated increased adoption of WCC. The predominant WCC species recorded by the MACS program as planted in the Tuckahoe watershed were wheat (68.1%), barley (16.1%), and rye (7.2%). The MACS WCC enrollment data were combined with output from the SWAT model, calibrated to streamflow and nutrient loading from the Tuckahoe watershed, to estimate water quality impacts based on known distribution of cover crop species and planting dates (2008 to 2017). Results indicated a 25% overall 10-year reduction in nitrate leaching from cropland resulting from cover crop adoption, rising to an estimated 38% load reduction in 2016 when 64% of fields were planted to cover crops. A large portion of WCC (39.3%) were planted late (after October 15) and planted to wheat (68.1%). Increased environmental benefits would be achieved by shifting agronomic methods away from late-planted wheat.

Delaware, Maryland↗

USGS2020

Mercury bioaccumulation in freshwater fishes of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Chemical contaminants are a threat to the Chesapeake Bay watershed, with mercury (Hg) among the most prevalent causes of impairment. Despite this, large-scale patterns of Hg concentrations, and the potential risks to fish, wildlife, and humans across the watershed, are poorly understood. We compiled fish Hg data from state monitoring programs and recent research efforts to address this knowledge gap and provide a comprehensive assessment of fish Hg concentrations in the watershed’s freshwater habitats. The resulting dataset consisted of nearly 8000 total Hg (THg) concentrations from 600 locations. Across the watershed, fish THg concentrations spanned a 44-fold range, with mean concentrations varying by 2.6- and 8.8-fold among major sub-watersheds and individual 8-digit hydrological units, respectively. Although, mean THg concentrations tended to be moderate, fish frequently exceeded benchmarks for potential adverse health effects, with 45, 48, and 36% of all samples exceeding benchmarks for human, avian piscivore, and fish risk, respectively. Importantly, the percentage of fish exceeding these benchmarks was not uniform among species or locations. The variation in fish THg concentrations among species and sites highlights the roles of waterbody, landscape, and ecological processes in shaping broad patterns in Hg risk across the watershed. We outline an integrated Hg monitoring program that could identify key factors influencing Hg concentrations across the watershed and facilitate the implementation of management strategies to mitigate the risks posed by Hg.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virgin↗

USGS2020

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin‐wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land‐use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed‐wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land‐use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed‐wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land‐use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed‐wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%–26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land‐use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land‐use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗