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Research about Chesapeake Bay

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Chesapeake Bay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Probabilistic forecasting of coastal wetland elevation and soil carbon response to sea-level rise

Tidal wetlands build soil as a dynamic response to inundation, resulting in carbon sequestration and resilience to sea-level rise. Process models can be used to make site-specific forecasts, anticipate future changes, and plan management responses. But to be actionable, forecasts from these models need to be accompanied by descriptions of their confidence. In this study, we demonstrate the application of ecological forecasting principles to the unique case of tidal wetland vulnerability and carbon storage, given accelerating and uncertain sea-level rise. We present a case study using the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model at the Global Change Research Wetland in Maryland, USA. We used meta-analyses to quantify lab- and sample-level measurement uncertainties for common soil measurements and to develop Bayesian model priors. Reanalysis of previous literature supported predictive relationships between belowground turnover and mean annual temperature, as well as between soil erodibility and suspended sediment concentration that could be transferable to other locations. The model forecasted a likely conversion of low-elevation marsh to open water by the 2060s, accompanied by a decrease in marsh carbon storage capacity. Forecasted uncertainty in elevation was dominated by structural uncertainty in the model, while carbon accumulation rates were more influenced by parameter uncertainty. After 2050, and increasingly as the forecast approached 2100, uncertainty in sea-level rise projections contributed to uncertainty in both forecasts. Forecasts were most sensitive to processes related to organic matter preservation, plant productivity (maximum aboveground biomass and belowground turnover), and organic soil packing density. The soil formed was an organic-rich peat (>70% organic matter according to the data), and model predictions were insensitive to parameters associated with mineral sedimentation. We identify additional field data collection, such as on decomposition trajectories and plant productivity, and data-model coupling of near-term elevation records as the most impactful strategies for reducing uncertainties in future forecasting efforts. Future work can build on this forecasting framework in other locations, using it for adaptive management, identifying appropriate interventions to mitigate wetland loss, and projecting future carbon removal capacity in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Maryland↗
USGS2026

Widespread reproductive deficits in Chesapeake Bay ospreys

Introduction: Ospreys ( Pandion haliaetus ) are well-known sentinels of aquatic ecosystem health and are indicators of both environmental contaminants and fish stocks. The Chesapeake Bay supports one of the largest osprey breeding populations in the world, but recent studies have documented declining reproductive performance and increasing food stress in some portions of the estuary. Methods: We monitored osprey nests (N = 571) throughout the Chesapeake Bay during the 2024 breeding season and compared breeding metrics between high-salinity (>10 parts per thousand [ppt]) and low-salinity (<5 ppt) study areas. We also compared contemporary breeding performance within four high-salinity sites to historical data collected during the 1980s. Results: Salinity was strongly associated with breeding performance and the likelihood that pairs achieved productivity levels required for population maintenance. All high-salinity study areas functioned as demographic sinks, whereas low-salinity areas functioned as demographic sources. Breeding metrics including the proportion of pairs breeding, clutch size, nesting failure, brood reduction, and nestling loss all suggested greater food stress within high-salinity areas. Temporal comparisons documented substantial declines in reproductive performance between the 1980s and 2024 within high-salinity study sites. High-salinity sites during the 1980s exhibited breeding performance comparable to low-salinity sites in 2024. Discussion: Although several factors may influence osprey productivity within the Chesapeake Bay, we suggest that reduced availability of Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ) is a primary driver of poor reproductive performance within high-salinity waters.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2026

Changes in suspended sediment concentration along tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay: The tidal freshwater “sediment shadow”

Transport of terrigenic sediment from nontidal watersheds into estuaries has important impacts on coastal habitat quality, pollutant transport, and resilience to sea-level rise. However, relatively little is known about changes in suspended sediment as nontidal rivers encounter tide, transition into tidal rivers through the tidal freshwater zone (TFZ), and enter saline portions of estuaries. The goal of this paper is to identify spatial and temporal patterns in suspended sediment concentration (SS) changes across tidal and salinity gradients over multiple tidal rivers, using a robust monitoring long-term dataset from the Chesapeake Bay. The multiple TFZs in the Chesapeake Bay consistently have a “sediment shadow” shown by a local spatial minimum in SS compared to upstream nontidal and downgradient oligohaline river reaches. Similarly, freshwater inputs from nontidal rivers have diminishing influence on tidal SS temporal dynamics with distance downstream from the head-of-tide. Therefore, little of the contemporary watershed sediment load is likely transported past the TFZ except during extreme floods when some sediment may be delivered to saline portions of the estuary. Tidal freshwater and brackish portions of the estuary have spatially variable trends in SS over time, both increases and decreases. However, the more saline downstream ends of tidal rivers and the mainstem of the Chesapeake Bay have had a consistent average 25% decline in SS over the past decades. In summary, the presence of “sediment shadows” suggests watershed loads of sediment are currently mostly not transported through the TFZ into the saline estuary, and likely generate sediment deficits for tidal freshwater wetlands.

Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2025

A simple predictive model for salt marsh internal deterioration under sea-level rise and sediment deficits: Application to Chesapeake Bay

Salt marshes are dynamic biogeomorphic systems reliant on autochthonous and allochthonous input to maintain their three-dimensional configuration. Sea-level rise, subsidence, and sediment deficits can lead to submergence, open-water expansion, and ultimately loss of the vegetated marsh plain and associated ecosystem services. Widely used management-focused models focus on vegetation zonation in response to sea level but neglect sediment transport processes and geomorphic change. Process-based research models attempt to represent complex physical and biogeomorphic interactions but operate on spatiotemporal scales that are not directly transferable to restoration or management. Here we bridge these two paradigms and present a novel geomorphic model (UBMorph) based on the sediment-based lifespan concept that accounts for sea-level rise and open-water expansion to predict changes in salt marsh area in Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters such as surface accretion rate and elevation-to-areal loss fraction are selected using a separate, fully coupled biogeomorphic model (MarshMorpho2D) and the predicted lifespan is then compared with high marsh coverage from a zonation model (SLAMM). Across all of Chesapeake Bay, UBMorph estimates an overall loss of 404 km 2 (37%) of vegetated marsh area under a dynamic 3–12 mm/y sea-level rise scenario (between 2010 and 2110). We then demonstrate a management-focused application of UBMorph and SLAMM used in tandem, for developing both a marsh condition and restoration model of the Chesapeake Bay portion of Maryland. The restoration model, which includes hydrologic intervention and sediment placement actions, indicates that ~ 400 km 2 of marsh require either no intervention or low effort hydrologic intervention presently, whereas if no action is taken, over 700 km 2 will require high effort intervention by 2070. This synthesis of research models with management-focused decision models demonstrates a tangible advance in bridging the gap between process-based research and restoration needs.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2025

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in double-crested cormorants (Nannopterum auritum) of the Chesapeake Bay, USA

Double-crested Cormorants ( Nannopterum auritum ) have historically exhibited low levels of infection and antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV). The recent global expansion of clade 2.3.4.4b A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza virus H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) has resulted in large-scale mortalities across diverse waterbird taxa including cormorants. We sampled 32 and 29 Double-crested Cormorants breeding in the Chesapeake Bay, US, during the summers of 2023 and 2024, respectively, to assess HPAI H5N1 infection and AIV antibodies. Although no mortality was observed in the area, one bird sampled in 2023 was infected with HPAI H5N1. Additionally, 21/31 individuals in 2023 and 10/25 individuals in 2024 for which sera were collected had AIV antibodies. Based on additional testing using hemagglutination inhibition, virus neutralization, and an enzyme-linked lectin assay, 94 and 100% (2023 and 2024, respectively) of the seropositive birds tested positive for antibodies to both H5 and N1, suggesting previous infection with HPAI H5N1. These results are consistent with survival and limited clinical effects related to HPAI H5N1 infections. Furthermore, these results suggest that population immunity to HPAI H5N1 within the Chesapeake Bay might reduce future infections and potential population impacts should HP H5N1 remain on the landscape, though immunity may be waning across time. Because results are based on a single population, additional testing for both infection and antibodies as well as continued monitoring could enhance understanding of antibody persistence.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2025

Leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to advance Chesapeake Bay research and management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities

The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed (hereafter “Chesapeake Bay region”) have been the focus of extensive restoration efforts for several decades. These restoration efforts are guided by the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (Chesapeake Executive Council 2014) which outlines 10 goals and 31 measurable outcomes. The Chesapeake Bay is globally recognized as a model for coastal restoration due to long-term investments in monitoring, modeling, implementation and research by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) partnership. These monitoring network spans tidal and non-tidal regions and provides data across multiple scales. Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine-learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), has emerged as a powerful tool for analyzing large, complex datasets. These techniques have gained widespread adoption across various disciplines, including ecology, hydrology, and environmental science. In the Bay context, AI/ML is increasingly being used to explore drivers of environmental change, analyze system dynamics, and predict conditions in areas with limited monitoring. The CBP partnership, particularly its Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), has increasingly recognized the growing role of AI/ML in watershed and estuarine management. Recent Chesapeake Community Research Symposium sessions and initiatives such as the Chesapeake Global Collaboratory highlight increasing regional momentum to apply big data and AI/ML for environmental solutions. Together, these developments underscore the timely need to explore how AI/ML can help advance Chesapeake Bay restoration and management. This STAC workshop, titled “Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning to Advance Chesapeake Bay Research and Management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities,” was held from February 24-25, 2025, in Edgewater, Maryland to bring together over 50 federal, state, and academic scientists and partners to synthesize the current state of AI/ML applications and identify research gaps in Chesapeake Bay research and management. The workshop focused on three main objectives: 1. Summarize recent AI/ML applications and lessons learned in both tidal and nontidal areas of the Chesapeake Bay region. 2. Identify challenges and gaps in applying AI/ML approaches to Chesapeake Bay data. Such challenges and gaps may include data limitations, harmonization issues, ineffective communication of AI/ML insights, and a lack of coordination among research and management institutions. 3. Develop recommendations and identify opportunities for leveraging AI/ML to address issues across the Chesapeake Bay region. Key areas of focus may include generating new information to support watershed management, delivering AI/MLgenerated insights to managers in a clear and actionable way, and fostering greater collaboration among stakeholders within the CBP Partnership. Workshop participants engaged in science presentations and breakout sessions to develop recommendations for advancing the integration of AI/ML techniques into research and management across the Chesapeake Bay region. By synthesizing current applications, identifying challenges, and exploring new opportunities, the workshop has provided valuable insights and recommendations for better leveraging AI/ML approaches to support the success of Bay restoration efforts. Together, these recommendations provide a roadmap for enhancing data-driven, science-based decision making aligned with the goals and outcomes of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2024

Identifying the forage base and critical forage taxa for Chesapeake waterbirds

To effectively maximize the conservation value of management plans intended to capture ecosystem-wide health, it is essential to obtain an understanding of emergent patterns in dietary dynamics spanning many species. Chesapeake Bay, USA, is a critical ecosystem used annually by a diverse assortment of waterbird species, including several of conservation concern. However, the ecosystem is threatened by many ecological pressures driven largely by the dense human population of the surrounding region. These issues necessitate proactive monitoring and management efforts to track the health of ecosystems like the Chesapeake Bay. Such monitoring efforts of population dynamics require adequate data on the connections between trophic levels to understand how changes to the forage base might influence higher trophic levels, such as these diverse avian predators. However, we have historically lacked standardized quantitative data drawing these connections at the community level, as well as the relative importance of these taxa in the diet of such predators. We collated existing quantitative data on avian dietary composition to construct a database on the diets of 58 waterbird species that make use of the Chesapeake Bay. From this database, we quantified the relative importance of forage taxa to the diet of each waterbird species. Such data can enable managers to develop a comprehensive suite of forage taxa indicators whose abundance and distributions can be monitored as a proxy for ecosystem health. It is our goal that this database be harnessed as a tool to enable conservation practitioners to prioritize indicator taxa for monitoring purposes, contributing towards conservation plans that best address the health of the ecosystem at large.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2024

Invasive blue catfish in the Chesapeake Bay: A risk to realizing Bay restoration investments

Introduction The partners of the Chesapeake Bay are investing billions of dollars in the restoration of critical habitats to improve conditions for people and living resources throughout the Bay and its watershed. However, the recent proliferation of invasive Ictalurus furcatus (blue catfish) in the Chesapeake Bay’s major rivers has the potential to disrupt these restoration efforts and limit the full potential improvement of the ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey can help respond to this management challenge in the Nation’s largest estuary by leveraging its leadership and technical capabilities to work with resource managers, academics, and other stakeholders.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2023

Recognizing political influences in participatory social-ecological systems modeling

Stakeholder participation in social-ecological systems (SES) modeling is increasingly considered a desirable way to elicit diverse sources of knowledge about SES behavior and to promote inclusive decision-making in SES. Understanding how participatory modeling processes function in the context of long-term adaptive management of SES may allow for better design of participatory processes to achieve the intended outcomes of inclusionary knowledge, representativeness, and social learning, while avoiding unintended outcomes. Long-term adaptive management contexts often include political influences -- attempts to shift or preserve power structures and authority, and efforts to represent the political and economic interests of stakeholders -- in the computer models that are used to shape policy making and implementation. In this research, we examine a period that included a major transition in the watershed model used for management of the Chesapeake Bay in the United States. The Chesapeake Bay watershed model has been in development since the 1980s, and is considered by many to be an exemplary case of participatory modeling. We use documentary analysis and interviews with participants involved in the model application and development transition to reveal a variety of ways in which participatory modeling may be subject to different kinds of political influences, some of which resulted in unintended outcomes, including: perceptions of difficulty updating the model in substantive ways, “gaming” of the model/participatory process by stakeholders, and increasing resistance against considering uncertainty in the system not captured by the model. This research suggests unintended or negative outcomes may be associated with both participatory decision-making and stakeholder learning even though they are so often touted as the benefits of participatory modeling. We end with a hypothesis that further development of a theory of computer model governance to bridge model impact and broader theories of environmental governance at the science-policy interface may result in improved SES modeling outcomes.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2023

A comparison of direct & indirect survey methods for estimating colonial nesting waterbird populations

Population estimates derived from monitoring efforts can be sensitive to the survey method selected, potentially leading to biased estimates and low precision relative to true population size. While small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) present a unique opportunity to survey avian populations while limiting disturbance, relatively little is known about how this method compares with more traditional approaches. In this study we compared population estimates of Snowy ( Egretta thula ) and Cattle Egrets ( Bubulcus ibis ) in a mixed-species colony in the Chesapeake Bay (Maryland, USA) derived from UAS photo counts, flush counts, flight-line surveys, and in-colony nest counts along with the time required to derive an estimate via each approach. We found that UAS counts and flush counts produced lower pair estimates than nest counts and flight-line surveys ( P < 0.05), and required dramatically less time (x̄ = 6, 8, 84 and 90 min, respectively). These results suggest that while UAS have the potential to collect valuable survey data from breeding colonies that are hard to reach or are especially sensitive to the disturbance inherent in other methods, inherent biases should be considered and caution should be used when comparing results between survey types.

Maryland↗
USGS2023

Achieving water quality goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A comprehensive evaluation of system response

A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: A Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) includes an evaluation of why progress toward meeting the TMDL and water quality standards has been slower than expected and offers options for how progress can be accelerated. This report is a summation of a three year investigation into the 40 year effort to reduce nutrient loads to Chesapeake Bay. History The effort began as a STAC independent initiative in March 2019, after Kurt Stephenson, Zach Easton, and Brian Benham proposed the idea of a report that would identify gaps and uncertainties in system response—physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic—that impact efforts designed to attain water quality standards in Chesapeake Bay. As STAC Chair at the time, Benham facilitated the development of a collaborative process that would engage the entire committee. As a first step in approaching the long causal chain that links management actions to their eventual impact on water quality and living resources, workgroups were formed around the subsystems of this chain: nutrient and sediment reductions (watershed), water quality response to nutrient and sediment reductions (estuary) and living resource response to water quality (living resources). Each of these workgroups generated an independent document with a self-determined scope (i.e., workgroups were afforded flexibility to address issues beyond the original objectives). Because the content of each document was both unique and substantial, STAC chose to publish them as stand-alone documents with authorship attribution. In the second step, a steering committee developed a series of framing questions to guide the preparation of this report that would meet the objective of identifying gaps and uncertainties in achieving the Bay TMDL and water quality standards. Coeditors Stephenson and Wardrop, supported to great extent by a subgroup of the Steering Committee (Leonard Shabman, Zach Easton, Jeremy Testa, William Dennison, Kenny Rose, and Mark Monaco) were tasked with assembling ideas and contributions to write a single draft text, drawing material from the aforementioned resource documents, STAC and Chesapeake Bay Program reports, the scientific literature, and a limited amount of additional analyses performed in collaboration with Bay Program scientists. The resulting report was then submitted for several reviews by both steering committee members and the membership at-large to produce a consensus report.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2022

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes) , two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2022

Poplar Island: Understanding the development of a beneficial use restoration site

Poplar Island, like many other islands throughout the Chesapeake Bay, eroded from 460 hectares in 1847 to only 1.5 hectares by the 1990’s. However, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland Department of Transportation, and numerous other state and federal agencies selected this site as the location of a beneficial use project aimed at restoring remote island habitat in the Chesapeake Bay using clean dredge material. While monitoring efforts since the beginning of restoration efforts have documented extensive use of Poplar Island by numerous species across multiple taxa, these efforts have previously lacked context regarding underlying habitat patterns. However, such information is especially important on a site like Poplar Island where habitat distribution and availability can change dramatically between years due to ongoing construction efforts. To address this information gap we digitized annual aerial imagery of Poplar Island from 2006-2017 into 20 habitat classes. The resulting data layers demonstrate the transition of cells along the eastern side of the island from undeveloped cells to planted marsh cells, which matches trends seen in avian monitoring data. Similarly, our data display changes in the distribution of specific resources such as sand across the island, and how individual locations of interest such as constructed habitat islands have evolved over time. We believe that these data will provide critical insight into the factors influencing wildlife distribution patterns on Poplar Island, and will allow for the identification of management actions that may either be targeted or avoided in the planning of future beneficial use projects.

Maryland↗
USGS2022

A water quality barometer for Chesapeake Bay: Assessing spatial and temporal patterns using long-term monitoring data

This paper develops a barometer that indexes water quality in the Chesapeake Bay and summarizes quality over spatial regions and temporal periods. The barometer has a basis in risk assessment and hydrology, and is a function of three different metrics of water quality relative to numerical criteria: relative frequency of criterion attainment; magnitude of deviation from a numerical criterion; and duration of criterion attainment. Metrics associated with these features are calculated at the station level, allowing flexibility for simultaneously evaluating multiple stressors, different designated uses, and physical characteristics of the water. The barometer score is then created as a geometric mean of the three metrics. The water quality barometer (WQB) station scores may be spatially aggregated to report habitat scores across a spectrum of spatial resolutions (e.g., management segment, tidal subsystem, or the whole tidal bay). Dissolved oxygen measurements in the Chesapeake Bay collected during summer seasons of 1985 to 2020 are used to evaluate water quality. The WQB score and its bootstrapped confidence interval are reported at the station, segment, tidal subsystem and whole tidal bay levels. Notably, water quality interpreted through application of the WQB with dissolved oxygen concentration data and averaged over the 29-year period of record is good (i.e. protects aquatic living resources) in tributaries such as the James River, Rappahannock River and others; but is not as good in areas such as the Upper Tributaries and the York River. Recent summaries indicate that while the water quality is improving in much of the bay and its tidal tributaries, however, there is an indication of decline in quality in the period 20182020, especially in the upper regions of the Bay. The barometer is designed around using the time series data produced by the Chesapeake Bay Programs annual monitoring strategy; the approach has application to other large water bodies with large scale monitoring programs with extended time series or for integrating information from environmental sensor systems.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2022

Review of harmful algal blooms effects on birds with implications for avian wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region

The Chesapeake Bay, along the mid-Atlantic coast of North America, is the largest estuary in the United States and provides critical habitat for wildlife. In contrast to point and non-point source release of pesticides, metals, and industrial, personal care and household use chemicals on biota in this watershed, there has only been scant attention to potential exposure and effects of algal toxins on wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region. As background, we first review the scientific literature on algal toxins and harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in various regions of the world that principally affected birds, and to a lesser degree other wildlife. To examine the situation for the Chesapeake, we compiled information from government reports and databases summarizing wildlife mortality events for 2000 through 2020 that were associated with potentially toxic algae and HAB events. Summary findings indicate that there have been few wildlife mortality incidents definitively linked to HABs, other mortality events that were suspected to be related to HABs, and more instances in which HABs may have indirectly contributed to or occurred coincident with wildlife mortality. The dominant toxins found in the Chesapeake Bay drainage that could potentially affect wildlife are microcystins, with concentrations in water approaching or exceeding human-based thresholds for ceasing recreational use and drinking water at a number of locations. As an increasing trend in HAB events in the U.S. and in the Chesapeake Bay have been reported, additional information on HAB toxin exposure routes, comparative sensitivity among species, consequences of sublethal exposure, and better diagnostic and risk criteria would greatly assist in predicting algal toxin hazard and risks to wildlife.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2022

Data synthesis for environmental management: A case study of Chesapeake Bay

Synthesizing large, complex data sets to inform resource managers towards effective environmental stewardship is a universal challenge. In Chesapeake Bay, a well-studied and intensively monitored estuary in North America, the challenge of synthesizing data on water quality and land use as factors related to a key habitat, submerged aquatic vegetation, was tackled by a team of scientists and resource managers operating at multiple levels of governance (state, federal). The synthesis effort took place over a two-year period (2016–2018), and the results were communicated widely to a) scientists via peer review publications and conference presentations; b) resource managers via web materials and workshop presentations; and c) the public through newspaper articles, radio interviews, and podcasts. The synthesis effort was initiated by resource managers at the United States Environmental Protection Agencys’ Chesapeake Bay Program and 16 scientist participants were recruited from a diversity of organizations. Multiple short, immersive workshops were conducted regularly to conceptualize the problem, followed by data analysis and interpretation that supported the preparation of the synthetic products that were communicated widely. Reflections on the process indicate that there are a variety of structural and functional requirements, as well as enabling conditions, that need to be considered to achieve successful outcomes from synthesis efforts.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2022

Nitrogen reductions have decreased hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay: Evidence from empirical and numerical modeling

Seasonal hypoxia is a characteristic feature of the Chesapeake Bay due to anthropogenic nutrient input from agriculture and urbanization throughout the watershed. Although coordinated management efforts since 1985 have reduced nutrient inputs to the Bay, oxygen concentrations at depth in the summer still frequently fail to meet water quality standards that have been set to protect critical estuarine living resources. To quantify the impact of watershed nitrogen reductions on Bay hypoxia during a recent period including both average discharge and extremely wet years (2016–2019), this study employed both statistical and three-dimensional (3-D) numerical modeling analyses. Numerical model results suggest that if the nitrogen reductions since 1985 had not occurred, annual hypoxic volumes (O 2 < 3 mg L −1 ) would have been ~50–120% greater during the average discharge years of 2016–2017 and ~20–50% greater during the wet years of 2018–2019. The effect was even greater for O 2 < 1 mg L −1 , where annual volumes would have been ~80–280% greater in 2016–2017 and ~30–100% greater in 2018–2019. These results were supported by statistical analysis of empirical data, though the magnitude of improvement due to nitrogen reductions was greater in the numerical modeling results than in the statistical analysis. This discrepancy is largely accounted for by warming in the Bay that has exacerbated hypoxia and offset roughly 6–34% of the improvement from nitrogen reductions. Although these results may reassure policymakers and stakeholders that their efforts to reduce hypoxia have improved ecosystem health in the Bay, they also indicate that greater reductions are needed to counteract the ever-increasing impacts of climate change.

Chesapeake Bay↗