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Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

Land cover

Documenting the distribution of land-cover types on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain is the foundation for impact assessment and mitigation of potential oil exploration and development. Vegetation maps facilitate wildlife studies by allowing biologists to quantify the availability of important wildlife habitats, investigate the relationships between animal locations and the distribution or juxtaposition of habitat types, and assess or extrapolate habitat characteristics across regional areas. To meet the needs of refuge managers and biologists, satellite imagery was chosen as the most cost-effective method for mapping the large, remote landscape of the 1002 Area. Objectives of our study were the following: 1) evaluate a vegetation classification scheme for use in mapping. 2) determine optimal methods for producing a satellite-based vegetation map that adequately met the needs of the wildlife research and management objectives; 3) produce a digital vegetation map for the Arctic Refuge coastal plain using Lands at-Thematic Mapper(TM) satellite imagery, existing geobotanical classifications, ground data, and aerial photographs, and 4) perform an accuracy assessment of the map.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

The porcupine caribou herd

Documentation of the natural range of variation in ecological, life history, and physiological characteristics of caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) of the Porcupine caribou herd is a necessary base for detecting or predicting any potential effects of industrial development on the performance (e.g., distribution, demography, weight-gain of individuals) of the herd. To demonstrate an effect of development, post-development performance must differ from pre-development performance while accounting for any natural environmental trends. We had 2 working hypotheses for our investigations: 1) performance of the Porcupine caribou herd was associated with environmental patterns and habitat quality, and 2) access to important habitats was a key influence on demography. We sought to document the range of natural variation in habitat conditions, herd size, demography (defined here as survival and reproduction), sources and magnitude of mortality, distribution, habitat use, and weight gain and loss, and to develop an understanding of the interactions among these characteristics of the herd. In addition, we investigated ways that we could use this background information, combined with auxiliary information from the adjacent Central Arctic caribou herd, to predict the direction and magnitude of any potential effects of industrial oil development in the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on Porcupine caribou herd calf survival on the herd's calving grounds during June.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

The central arctic caribou herd

From the mid-1970s through the mid-1980s, use of calving and summer habitats by Central Arctic herd caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) declined near petroleum development infrastructure on Alaska's arctic coastal plain (Cameron et al. 1979; Cameron and Whitten 1980, Smith and Cameron 1983. Whitten and Cameron 1983a, 1985: Dau and Cameron 1986). With surface development continuing to expand westward from the Prudhoe Bay petroleum development area (Fig. 4.1), concerns arose that the resultant cumulative losses of habitat would eventually reduce productivity of the caribou herd. Specifically, reduced access of adult females to preferred foraging areas might adversely affect growth and fattening (Elison et al. 1986. Clough et al. 1987), in turn depressing calf production (Dauphiné 1976, Thomas 1982, Reimers 1983, White 1983, Eloranta and Nieminen 1986. Lenvik et al. 1988, Thomas and Kiliaan 1991) and survival (Haukioja and Salovaara 1978, Rognmo et al. 1983, Skogland 1984, Eloranta and Nieminen 1986, Adamczewski et al. 1987). Those concerns, though justified in theory, lacked empirical support. With industrial development in arctic Alaska virtually unprecedented, there was little basis for predicting the extent and duration of habitat loss, much less the secondary short- and long-term effects on the well-being of a particular caribou herd. Furthermore, despite a general acceptance that body condition and fecundity of the females are functionally related for reindeer and caribou, it seemed unlikely that any single model would apply to all subspecies of Rangifer , and perhaps not even within a subspecies in different geographic regions. We therefore lacked a complete understanding of the behavioral responses of arctic caribou to industrial development, the manner in which access to habitats might be affected, and how changes in habitat use might translate into measurable effects on fecundity and herd growth rate. Our study addressed the following objectives: 1) estimate variation in the size and productivity of the Central Arctic herd; 2) estimate changes in the distribution and movements of Central Arctic herd caribou in relation to the oil field development; 3) estimate the relationships between body condition and reproductive performance of female Central Arctic herd caribou, and 4) compare the body condition, reproductive success, and offspring survival of females under disturbance-free conditions (i.e., east of the Sagavanirktok River) with the status of those exposed to petroleum-related development (i.e., west of the Sagavanirktok River).

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

Muskoxen

Muskoxen ( Ovibos moschatus ) disappeared from Alaska in the late 1800s, but returned to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge when animals were reestablished into areas of former range in 1969-1970 (Klein 1988). Released at Barter Island (Kaktovik) and the Kavik River, muskoxen initially moved into regions that encompassed the 1002 Area on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge. From 1974 to 1986 the muskox population grew rapidly. By 1987, however, numbers declined in the regions that they had first occupied (Reynolds 1998 a ). Petroleum exploration and development could occur in muskox habitat in the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge. Status of the muskox population and factors related to trends in local abundance need to be determined if changes resulting from natural processes are to be separated from those that might result if industrial development is permitted in the Arctic Refuge. We developed a study with the following objectives to understand the dynamics of the muskox population in and near the 1002 Area of the Arctic Refuge: 1) determine abundance and rates of population increase, production, and survival; 2) document changes in population distribution over time, and 3) evaluate factors associated with changes in the number of muskoxen.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

Arctic Refuge coastal plain terrestrial wildlife research summaries

In 1980, when the U.S. Congress enacted the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA), it also mandated a study of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Section 1002 of ANILCA stated that a comprehensive inventory of fish and wildlife resources would be conducted on 1.5 million acres of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain (1002 Area). Potential petroleum reserves in the 1002 Area were also to be evaluated from surface geological studies and seismic exploration surveys. Results of these studies and recommendations for future management of the Arctic Refuge coastal plain were to be prepared in a report to Congress. In 1987, the Department of the Interior published the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource Assessment - Report and Recommendations to the Congress of the United States and Final Environmental Impact Statement. This report to Congress identified the potential for oil and gas production (updated* most recently by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2001), described the biological resources, and evaluated the potential adverse effects to fish and wildlife resources. The 1987 report analyzed the potential environmental consequences of five management alternatives for the coastal plain, ranging from wilderness designation to opening the entire area to lease for oil and gas developement. The report's summary recommended opening the 1002 Area to an orderly oil and gas leasing program, but cautioned that adverse effects to some wildlife populations were possible. Congress did not act on this recommendation nor any other alternative for the 1002 Area, and scientists continued studies of key wildlife species and habitats on the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge and surrounding areas. This report contains updated summaries of those scientific investigations of caribou, muskoxen, predators (grizzly bears, wolves, golden eagles), polar bears, snow geese, and their wildlife habitats. Contributions to this report were made by scientists affiliated with the U.S. Geological Survey; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Alaska Department of Fish and Game; University of Alaska-Fairbanks; Canadian Wildlife Service; Yukon Department of Renewable Resources; and the Northwest Territories Department of Resources, Wildlife, and Economic Development. Sections of the report presenting new information on caribou and forage plants were peer-reviewed by three independent, non-affiliated scientists. The remaining sections summarize previously published peer-reviewed scientific papers and were reviewed by a single independent scientist. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated in the publication of this report.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon Territory↗

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Mitochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size ( r s = −0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size ( r s = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, although growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Washington↗

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Manitoba, Michigan, Minne↗

Assessment of biological effects of chlorinated hydrocarbons in osprey chicks

Osprey ( Pandion haliaetus ) eggs were collected during 1995 and 1996 at seven sites along the Fraser and Columbia River systems of British Columbia, Canada, and Washington and Oregon, USA. Fifty-four eggs were placed into a laboratory incubator. Thirty-eight of the hatched chicks were sacrificed within 24 h. Hatching success did not differ among sites and therefore between treatment and reference areas. Residual yolk sacs of eggs collected downstream of the large bleached-kraft pulp mill at Castlegar contained greater mean concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD, 2,930 ng/kg lipid) compared with reference sites such as the Nechako River, an upper tributary of the Fraser system (33.7 ng/kg). Total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in yolk sacs were also higher at Castlegar and in samples from the Columbia River downstream of Portland, Oregon, compared with those from the Nechako River. Concentrations of measured chemicals, including TCDD toxic equivalents (TEQs), total PCBs, p , p ′-dichlorodiphenylethylene ( p , p ′-DDE), and other organochlorines were not different in eggs that failed to hatch compared with calculated whole-egg values for hatched eggs. There were significant biochemical responses; a hepatic cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) cross-reactive protein was detected in all samples tested and correlated positively with ethoxyresorufin o -deethylase (EROD) activity and yolk sac concentrations of TEQs and total PCBs. Tissue concentrations of vitamin A compounds varied among sites and correlated positively with yolk sac concentrations of TEQs and PCBs. Morphological, histological, and other physiological parameters, including chick growth, edema, deformities, and hepatic and renal porphyrin concentrations, neither varied among sites nor showed concentration-related effects.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗

Historical trace metal accumulation in the sediments of an urbanized region of the Lake Champlain watershed, Burlington, Vermont

This study documents the history of pollution inputs in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain, Vermont using measurements of anthropogenic metals (Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Cd, and Ag) in four age-dated sediment cores. Sediments record a history of contamination in a region and can be used to assess the changing threat to biota over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of discharge regulations on anthropogenic inputs. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy were combined with trace metal data to provide an assessment of the history of contamination over the last 350 yr in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain. Magnetic susceptibility was initially used to identify land-use history for each site because it is a proxy indicator of soil erosion. Historical trends in metal inputs in the Burlington region from the seventeenth through the twentieth centuries are reflected in downcore variations in metal concentrations and accumulation rates. Metal concentrations increase above background values in the early to mid nineteenth century. The metal input rate to the sediments increases around 1920 and maximum concentrations and accumulation rates are observed in the late 1960s. Decreases in concentration and accumulation rate between 1970 and the present are observed, for most metals. The observed trends are primarily a function of variations in anthropogenic inputs and not variations in sediment grain size. Grain size data were used to remove texture variations from the metal profiles and results show trends in the anthropogenic metal signals remain. Radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy provide well-constrained dates for the sediments thereby allowing the metal profiles to be interpreted in terms of land-use history.This study documents the history of pollution inputs in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain, Vermont using measurements of anthropogenic metals (Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Cd, and Ag) in four age-dated sediment cores. Sediments record a history of contamination in a region and can be used to assess the changing threat to biota over time and to evaluate the effectiveness of discharge regulations on anthropogenic inputs. Grain size, magnetic susceptibility, radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy were combined with trace metal data to provide an assessment of the history of contamination over the last 350 yr in the Burlington region of Lake Champlain. Magnetic susceptibility was initially used to identify land-use history for each site because it is a proxy indicator of soil erosion. Historical trends in metal inputs in the Burlington region from the seventeenth through the twentieth centuries are reflected in downcore variations in metal concentrations and accumulation rates. Metal concentrations increase above background values in the early to mid nineteenth century. The metal input rate to the sediments increases around 1920 and maximum concentrations and accumulation rates are observed in the late 1960s. Decreases in concentration and accumulation rate between 1970 and the present are observed for most metals. The observed trends are primarily a function of variations in anthropogenic inputs and not variations in sediment grain size. Grain size data were used to remove texture variations from the metal profiles and results show trends in the anthropogenic metal signals remain. Radiometric dating and pollen stratigraphy provide well-constrained dates for the sediments thereby allowing the metal profiles to be interpreted in terms of land-use history.

New York, Vermont↗

Microsatellite DNA variation Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) and cross-species amplification the Acipenseridae

O verharvest and habitat alteration have led to a collapse of most commercial Atlantic sturgeon( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus )fisheries while pushing the species to rarity or extirpation in most of its historical range. A biologically sound conservation program for this species requires knowledge of its genetic diversity and of the evolutionary relationships among geographic populations. To address these research needs, six microsatellite loci were isolated from A. o. oxyrinchus . Pedigree analysis suggested that all are inherited in a codominant Mendelian pattern. The six loci were tested in ten additional sturgeon species from three genera and three apparent ploidy levels (4n, 8n, 16n). Approximately 70% of successful locus-species amplifications were polymorphic. Polysomy was observed most often in 8n and 16n species. Genetic diversity and population structure of A. o. oxyrinchus were assayed using three polymorphic Aox markers and four markers developed from lake sturgeon ( A. fulvescens ). A. o. oxyrinchus were sampled from the Altamaha River, Georgia, USA north to the St. Lawrence River, Quebec, Canada. Gulf sturgeon, A. o. desotoi , were sampled from the Suwannee River, Florida, USA, to assess differentiation between the subspecies. Seventy-seven alleles were observed to segregate into unique multilocus genotypes for each of the 392 individuals assayed. Mean diversity was greatest in the Chesapeake Bay (9.7 alleles per locus) and Delaware River (7.4 alleles per locus) collections, and lowest in the St. Lawrence River (4.6 alleles per locus). Mean heterozygosity across seven loci ranged from 44.3% (St. Lawrence River) to 62.6% (Altamaha River). Significant allelic heterogeneity was observed in 82% of pairwise comparisons as well as a global test (p < 0.0001) for A. o. oxyrinchus collections. Genetic distance suggests the presence of at least six subpopulations in A. o. oxyrinchus : St. Lawrence River, St. John River, Hudson River, Delaware River, Albemarle Sound, and Altamaha River. Genetic and geographic distances were positively correlated (r = 0.57, p < 0.03) among A. o. oxyrinchus , suggesting isolation by distance and philopatry. Hierarchical gene diversity analysis indicated significant genetic population structure at every level. Maximum likelihood assignment tests correctly assigned individual fish to collection with a high rate of success (mean = 87.5%); this and other lines of evidence indicated that the Chesapeake Bay collection represents a mixed population of sub-adult sturgeon from northern and southern Atlantic coast populations. Population structure was correlated with that suggested by earlier mitochondrial (mt) DNA analyses. Significant diversity was observed between two Canadian populations from which only a single mt DNA haplotype has been reported.

Conservation Genetics↗

Caddisflies (Insecta: Trichoptera) of fringing wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fringing wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes are subject to natural processes, such as water-level fluctuation and wave-induced erosion, and to human alterations. In order to evaluate the quality of these wetlands over space and time, biological communities are often examined. This paper reports on the use of adult caddisflies to evaluate fringing wetlands of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, W↗

Geophysics: Silent slip on the Cascadia subduction interface

G eodetic satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) now permit continuous recording of surface motions around earthquake faults and volcanoes with millimeter precision. Data from distinct points on Earth's surface can be combined to infer the locations of the sources of deformation at depth in the crust. These data are radically altering our understanding of earthquake processes, justifying ambitious new sensor arrays to image active deformation sources in Earth's crust. In recent years, large continuous GPS arrays have been deployed in Japan and southern California, and smaller networks have been installed in other seismically active regions. On page 1525 of this issue ( 1 ), Dragert et al. provide a glimpse of the kinds of insights we can expect from these arrays.

Cascadia subduction zone↗

Comparing movement patterns of satellite-tagged male and female polar bears

Satellite radiotelemetry has provided great insights into the movements and behaviors of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). The diameter of the neck of adult male polar bears exceeds that of their head, however, and radio collars slip off. This has limited collection of movement information to that from radio-collared females. To overcome this difficulty and gather information about their movements, we surgically implanted satellite radio transmitters into 7 male polar bears during 1996 and 1997. We compared movements of implanted males with those of 104 adult females radio-collared between 1985 and 1995. Transmitters were implanted under the skin on the midline of the top of the neck and were equipped with percutaneous antennae. Implanted transmitters operated for up to 161 days providing 3217 satellite relocations. While transmitting, radios implanted in males provided a larger proportion of the highest quality category of position fixes than was obtained from radio-collared females. However, all implanted radios ceased transmitting before reaching their projected life-span. The abrupt termination of transmission from implanted radios suggested mechanical rather than electronic failure. Mean rates of short-term movement for males (1.18 km/h) were lower than for solitary females, females with cubs, and females with yearlings (1.70, 1.84, and 1.95 km/h, respectively). Net geographic movements from the beginning to the end of each month were comparable for males (mean = 135 km) and females (mean = 114, 152, and 168 km). Mean azimuths of these net movements also appeared to be similar. Monthly activity-area sizes for males (mean = 8541 km 2 ) were comparable to those for females (mean = 3698, 9397, and 10 585 km 2 ) during the time period of comparison. In contrast to the other movement measures, males traveled longer mean distances (387 km) each month than did females (217, 289, and 302 km). Movements of males, it appears, were more directed than those of females, but males confined their travels to similar-sized areas.

Alaska, Northwest Territories↗

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [ Aythya affinis ] and greater scaup [ A. marila ] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

North America↗

Volcanoes of the Wrangell Mountains and Cook Inlet region, Alaska: selected photographs

Alaska is home to more than 40 active volcanoes, many of which have erupted violently and repeatedly in the last 200 years. This CD-ROM contains 97 digitized color 35-mm images which represent a small fraction of thousands of photographs taken by Alaska Volcano Observatory scientists, other researchers, and private citizens. The photographs were selected to portray Alaska's volcanoes, to document recent eruptive activity, and to illustrate the range of volcanic phenomena observed in Alaska. These images are for use by the interested public, multimedia producers, desktop publishers, and the high-end printing industry. The digital images are stored in the 'images' folder and can be read across Macintosh, Windows, DOS, OS/2, SGI, and UNIX platforms with applications that can read JPG (JPEG - Joint Photographic Experts Group format) or PCD (Kodak's PhotoCD (YCC) format) files. Throughout this publication, the image numbers match among the file names, figure captions, thumbnail labels, and other references. Also included on this CD-ROM are Windows and Macintosh viewers and engines for keyword searches (Adobe Acrobat Reader with Search). At the time of this publication, Kodak's policy on the distribution of color-management files is still unresolved, and so none is included on this CD-ROM. However, using the Universal Ektachrome or Universal Kodachrome transforms found in your software will provide excellent color. In addition to PhotoCD (PCD) files, this CD-ROM contains large (14.2'x19.5') and small (4'x6') screen-resolution (72 dots per inch; dpi) images in JPEG format. These undergo downsizing and compression relative to the PhotoCD images.

Data Series↗

Visualization of drifting buoy deployments on St. Clair River near public water intakes - October 3-5, 2000

St. Clair River is a connecting channel of the Great Lakes between Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair. The river forms part of the international boundary between the United States and Canada in the eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan and southern Ontario. Drifting buoys were deployed to help investigate flow characteristics near public water intakes in ten reaches of St. Clair River from October 3-5, 2000. In eight deployments, buoys were released at uniform intervals in a transect across the river to better understand flow patterns. In the remaining six deployments, buoys were released in a cluster near the middle of the channel to study turbulent dispersion characteristics. The eight spherical and seven cylindrical buoys used in the study were equipped with drogues and had similar drift characteristics. Each buoy contained a geographical positioning system (GPS) to monitor its movement. Computer animations were developed that integrated these GPS data with data shown on navigational charts. These computer animations, which can be viewed through the Internet, provide a scientific visualization tool to study the deployments.

Michigan↗

Steady-state flow distribution and monthly flow duration in selected branches of St. Clair and Detroit rivers within the Great Lakes waterway

St. Clair and Detroit Rivers are connecting channels between Lake Huron and Lake Erie in the Great Lakes waterway, and form part of the boundary between the United States and Canada. St. Clair River, the upper connecting channel, drains 222,400 square miles and has an average flow of about 182,000 cubic feet per second. Water from St. Clair River combines with local inflows and discharges into Lake St. Clair before flowing into Detroit River. In some reaches of St. Clair and Detroit Rivers, islands and dikes split the flow into two to four branches. Even when the flow in a reach is known, proportions of flows within individual branches of a reach are uncertain. Simple linear regression equations, subject to a flow continuity constraint, are developed to provide estimators of these proportions and flows. The equations are based on 533 paired measurements of flow in 13 reaches forming 31 branches. The equations provide a means for computing the expected values and uncertainties of steady-state flows on the basis of flow conditions specified at the upstream boundaries of the waterway. In 7 upstream reaches, flow is considered fixed because it can be determined on the basis of flows specified at waterway boundaries and flow continuity. In these reaches, the uncertainties of flow proportions indicated by the regression equations can be used directly to determine the uncertainties of the corresponding flows. In the remaining 6 downstream reaches, flow is considered uncertain because these reaches do not receive flow from all the branches of an upstream reach, or they receive flow from some branches of more than one upstream reach. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to quantify this increase in uncertainty associated with the propagation of uncertainties from upstream reaches to downstream reaches. To eliminate the need for Monte Carlo simulations for routine calculations, polynomial regression equations are developed to approximate the variation in uncertainties as a function of flow at the headwaters of St. Clair River. Finally, monthly flow-duration data on the main channels of St. Clair and Detroit Rivers are used with the equations developed in this report to estimate the steady-state flow-duration characteristics of selected branches.

Detroit River, St. Clair River↗