Geology topics

Research about Canada, United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 397 records · Page 22Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Establishment of a microsatellite genetic baseline for North American Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser o. oxyrhinchus) and range-wide analysis of population genetics

Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) is a long-lived, anadromous species that is broadly distributed along the Atlantic coast of North America. Historic overharvest and habitat degradation resulted in significant declines to Atlantic sturgeon populations and, following decades of limited recovery, the species was listed under the Endangered Species Act of the United States in 2012. Given continued threats to recovery and limited information about population demography, there is a need for new tools to assist in Atlantic sturgeon conservation. Here, we present a range-wide microsatellite genetic baseline for North American Atlantic sturgeon that is comprised of 2510 individuals from 18 genetically distinct groups collected in 13 rivers and one estuary. Analysis of this baseline suggested that populations from the northern range of Atlantic sturgeon were more highly differentiated than those from the southern extent, where patterns of differentiation were complicated by rivers with genetically distinct spring and fall spawning runs and less geographic distance separating populations. Despite significant demographic bottleneck events, all populations showed at least moderate levels of genetic diversity across a suite of metrics. Additionally, individual-based assignment tests had over 80% accuracy for assigning individuals to their river of origin, highlighting the utility of this baseline for characterizing the composition of mixed-stock aggregations and understanding stock-specific vulnerability and recovery. The expanded spatial coverage of this baseline dataset enabled novel inferences about patterns of genetic differentiation and spawning phenology in Atlantic sturgeon which can be used to support conservation and management efforts.

Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2021

The PLUM earthquake early warning algorithm: A retrospective case study of West Coast, USA, data

The PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm differs from typical source-based EEW algorithms as it predicts shaking directly from observed shaking without first deriving earthquake source information (e.g., magnitude and epicenter). Here, we determine optimal PLUM event detection thresholds for U.S. West Coast earthquakes using two data sets: 558 M3.5+ earthquakes (California, Oregon, Washington; 2012–2017) and the ShakeAlert test suite of historic and problematic signals (1999–2015). PLUM computes Modified Mercalli Intensity ( I MMI ) using velocity and acceleration data, leveraging co-located sensors to avoid problematic signals. An event detection is issued when the observed I MMI exceeds a given threshold(s). We find a two-station detection method using I MMI trigger thresholds of 4.0 and 3.0 for the first and second stations, respectively, is optimal for detecting M4.5+ earthquakes. PLUM detected 79 events in the 2012–2017 data set, reporting (not including telemetry or alert dissemination) detection times on par, and sometimes faster than current EEW methods (mean 8 s; median 6 s). As expected, detection times were slower for the older 1999–2015 earthquakes ( N = 21; mean 11 s; median 6 s) when station coverage was sparser. Of the 31 PLUM detected M5+ events (10 2012–2017; 21 1999–2015), theoretically 20 (∼65%) could provide timely warnings. PLUM issued no false detections and avoided issuing detections for all calibration/anomalous signals, regional and teleseismic events. We conclude PLUM can successfully identify I MMI 4+ shaking from local earthquakes and could complement and enhance EEW in the U.S.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

NGA-East Ground-Motion Characterization model part I: Summary of products and model development

In this article, we present an overview of the research project NGA-East, Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA), and summarize the key methodology and products. The project was tasked with developing a new ground motion characterization (GMC) model for CENA. The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 median ground motion models (GMMs) for peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA, PGV) and response spectral ordinates for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The NGA-East GMMs are applicable to horizontal components of ground motions on very hard rock, for the moment magnitude range of 4.0–8.2, and distances of up to 1500 km. The aleatory standard deviations of GMMs are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) applications (ergodic standard deviation). In addition, adjustment factors are provided for source depth and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast Region. During the course of the project, several innovative technologies were developed and implemented to increase the transparency and repeatability of the GMC building process. This involved expanding on a set of candidate median GMMs to define and capture an appropriate range of epistemic uncertainty in ground motions. We also developed a new approach for modeling the aleatory variability that was completely independent of the median GMMs. The development made extensive use of the CENA database but also borrowed data from other parts of the world when relevant and led to an integrated suite of models. Through this repeatable process, epistemic uncertainty could be quantified more objectively than before, relying less on expert opinion. The NGA-East project went through a comprehensive Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 peer review process before its release.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

Spring phenology drives range shifts in a migratory Arctic ungulate with key implications for the future

Annual variation in phenology can have profound effects on the behavior of animals. As climate change advances spring phenology in ecosystems around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how animals respond to variation in the timing of seasonal events and how their responses may shift in the future. We investigated the influence of spring phenology on the behavior of migratory, barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), a species that has evolved to cope with short Arctic summers. Specifically, we examined the effect of spring snow melt and vegetation growth on the current and potential future space-use patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH), which exhibits large, inter-annual shifts in their calving and post-calving distributions across the U.S.–Canadian border. We quantified PCH selection for snow melt and vegetation phenology using machine learning models, determined how selection resulted in annual shifts in space-use, and then projected future distributions based on climate-driven phenology models. Caribou exhibited strong, scale-dependent selection for both snow melt and vegetation growth. During the calving season, caribou selected areas at finer scales where the snow had melted and vegetation was greening, but within broader landscapes that were still brown or snow covered. During the post-calving season, they selected vegetation with intermediate biomass expected to have high forage quality. Annual variation in spring phenology predicted major shifts in PCH space-use. In years with early spring phenology, PCH predominately used habitat in Alaska, while in years with late phenology, they spent more time in Yukon. Future climate conditions were projected to advance spring phenology, shifting PCH calving and post-calving distributions further west into Alaska. Our results demonstrate that caribou selection for habitat in specific phenological stages drive dramatic shifts in annual space-use patterns, and will likely affect future distributions, underscoring the importance of maintaining sufficient suitable habitat to allow for behavioral plasticity.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2021

When Wyoming became Superior: Oblique convergence along the southern Trans-Hudson orogen

The Trans-Hudson orogen (THO) is one of the best-preserved Proterozoic orogens on Earth, largely unaffected by subsequent tectonism, yet its southern extent lies concealed beneath the North American Central Plains. A new 3D resistivity model over the southern orogen is developed and interpreted alongside borehole, potential field, and seismic reflection data. We present the first synoptic crustal view of the southern THO and a new tectonic model of the orogen. Our model reveals high-conductivity belts marking paleo-subduction zones while the orogen center consists of deeply exhumed relatively dense and mostly magnetic juvenile crust preserved between the deformed margins of the Wyoming and Superior cratons. Complex structure along the western margin suggests convergence began with oblique subduction and the northward transport of severed fragments of the Wyoming Province. High-conductivity belts are in places offset from upper-crustal geophysical boundaries, consistent with the thrusting of accreted arcs over the Archean margins during terminal closure.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Exploring GPS observations of postseismic deformation following the 2012 MW7.8 Haida Gwaii and 2013 MW7.5 Craig, Alaska Earthquakes: Implications for viscoelastic Earth structure

The Queen Charlotte-Fairweather Fault (QC-FF) system off the coast of British Columbia and southeast Alaska is a highly active dextral strike-slip plate boundary that accommodates ∼50 mm/yr of relative motion between the Pacific and North America plates. Nine M W ≥ 6.7 earthquakes have occurred along the QC-FF system since 1910, including a M S (G-R) 8.1 event in 1949. Two recent earthquakes, the October 28, 2012 Haida Gwaii ( M W 7.8) and January 5, 2013 Craig, Alaska ( M W 7.5) events, produced postseismic transient deformation that was recorded in the motions of 25 nearby continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations. Here, we use 5+ yr of cGPS measurements to characterize the underlying mechanisms of postseismic deformation and to constrain the viscosity structure of the upper mantle surrounding the QC-FF. We construct forward models of viscoelastic deformation driven by coseismic stress changes from these two earthquakes and explore a large set of laterally heterogeneous viscosity structures that incorporate a relatively weak back-arc domain; we then evaluate each model based on its fit to the postseismic signals in our cGPS data. In determining best-fit model structures, we additionally incorporate the effects of afterslip following the 2012 event. Our results indicate the occurrence of a combination of temporally decaying afterslip and vigorous viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle asthenosphere. In addition, our best-fit viscosity structure (transient viscosity of 1.4–2.0 × 10 18 Pa s; steady-state viscosity of 10 19 Pa s) is consistent with the range of upper mantle viscosities determined in previous studies of glacial isostatic rebound and postseismic deformation.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

USGS2021

NGA-East ground-motion characterization model Part II: Implementation and hazard implications

As a companion article to Goulet et al., we describe implementation of the NGA-East ground motion characterization (GMC) model in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for sites in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). We present extensions to the EPRI/DOE/NRC seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the CEUS needed for full implementation of NGA-East. Comparisons are presented to the EPRI GMC, the currently accepted model by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for hazard assessment at nuclear facilities. Comparisons are presented both in terms of GMC model components and in the resulting seismic hazard assessments for a range of site locations in the CEUS. Illustrations of the effect of various components of the NGA-East GMC on seismic hazard results are also presented. Finally, we present recommendations for application of the NGA-East GMC in PSHA.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

Characterization of historical and stochastically generated climate and streamflow conditions in the Souris River Basin, United States and Canada

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Greater than average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June 2011, resulted in historically unprecedented flooding in the Souris River Basin. The severity of the 2011 flood led the United States and Canada to request a review of the operating plan for any improvements of reservoir operations and flood control measures in the basin, and the Souris River Basin Task Force was formed. The International Souris River Study Board was then formed in 2017 to carry out the recommendations of the Souris River Basin Task Force laid out in a plan of study. To support the International Souris River Study Board, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission and the International Joint Commission, used the previously developed unregulated and regulated streamflow models and data for stochastic streamflow in the Souris River Basin to characterize climate and streamflow and support selection of streamflow traces based on their characterization. Components of the original stochastic hydrology models and their outputs were used in this phase of the study to (1) characterize historical and stochastic climate and streamflow for the Souris River Basin, (2) disaggregate monthly stochastic streamflow spatially and temporally to meet the needs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Reservoir System Simulation model for the Souris River Basin, and (3) discuss selection of disaggregated streamflow traces (simulations) using the characteristics of climate and streamflow. A trace is a time series of a stochastic variable such as streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, or precipitation. To characterize climate conditions, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and moisture deficit for the Souris River Basin and individual points at Rafferty, Grant Devine, and Lake Darling Reservoirs were determined annually and seasonally. The annual basin (November 1–October 31) precipitation for the 50-percent nonexceedance probability is 452 millimeters (mm). Spring (March–May) is the wettest season, followed by summer (June–August), fall (September–November), and winter (December–February). Annual moisture deficit was largest at Lake Darling Reservoir, followed by Rafferty Reservoir, and then Grant Devine Reservoir. Annual maximum monthly mean streamflow was determined for the Souris River below Rafferty Reservoir, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05NB036); Long Creek near Noonan (above Boundary Reservoir), North Dakota (USGS streamgage 05113600); Moose Mountain Creek near Oxbow, Saskatchewan (Canadian streamgage 05ND004); the Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05114000); the Des Lacs River at Foxholm, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05116500); and the Souris River above Minot, N. Dak. (USGS streamgage 05117500). When the seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows are evaluated in contrast to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows separated by their seasonal occurrence, summer months of annual maximum monthly mean streamflows have a higher 50-percent exceedance probability of streamflow compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring, and seasonal maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer. When annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in summer are compared to annual maximum monthly mean streamflows in spring, they are consistently higher in streamflow but occur in less than 4.2 percent of years. Evaluation of whether the annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in summer can be described as a separate population from annual maximum monthly mean streamflows that occur in spring was outside the scope of this study, and the summer and spring annual maximum monthly mean streamflows were not tested for statistical differences in mean or variance. Further investigation of seasonal weather patterns that induce flooding could lead to a better understanding of the seasonal differences in flooding. Long-term hydrologic drought was characterized by evaluating multiyear mean streamflow. Shorter averaging periods have greater streamflow variability than longer periods and hence have a wider range of values. As the averaging period is extended to a longer period, the variability of mean streamflow decreases, and the more extreme streamflow volumes seen in shorter averaging periods cannot be sustained. Stochastic streamflow time series were disaggregated spatially and temporally for use in a HEC–ResSim model. The combination of monthly and daily stochastic streamflow data was used to select traces with qualities that could be used to test alternatives focused on water supply, summer flooding, and apportionment.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2021

Identifying chemicals and mixtures of potential biological concern detected in passive samplers from Great Lakes tributaries using high-throughput data and biological pathways

Waterborne contaminants were monitored in 69 tributaries of the Laurentian Great Lakes in 2010 and 2014 using semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS). A risk-based screening approach was used to prioritize chemicals and chemical mixtures, identify sites at greatest risk for biological impacts, and identify potential hazards to monitor at those sites. Analyses included 185 chemicals (143 detected) including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), legacy and current-use pesticides, fire retardants, pharmaceuticals, and fragrances. Hazard quotients were calculated by dividing detected concentrations by biological effect concentrations reported in the ECOTOX Knowledgebase (toxicity quotients) or ToxCast database (exposure–activity ratios [EARs]). Mixture effects were estimated by summation of EAR values for chemicals that influence ToxCast assays with common gene targets. Nineteen chemicals—atrazine, N,N -diethyltoluamide, di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate, dl-menthol, galaxolide, p-tert-octylphenol, 3 organochlorine pesticides, 3 PAHs, 4 pharmaceuticals, and 3 phosphate flame retardants—had toxicity quotients >0.1 or EARs for individual chemicals >10 –3 at 10% or more of the sites monitored. An additional 4 chemicals (tributyl phosphate, triethyl citrate, benz[ a ]anthracene, and benzo[ b ]fluoranthene) were present in mixtures with EARs >10 –3 . To evaluate potential apical effects and biological endpoints to monitor in exposed wildlife, in vitro bioactivity data were compared to adverse outcome pathway gene ontology information. Endpoints and effects associated with endocrine disruption, alterations in xenobiotic metabolism, and potentially neuronal development would be relevant to monitor at the priority sites. The EAR threshold exceedance for many chemical classes was correlated with urban land cover and wastewater effluent influence, whereas herbicides and fire retardants were also correlated to agricultural land cover. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2165–2182. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2021

Northern Madtom use of artificial reefs in the St. Clair–Detroit River System

The St. Clair and Detroit rivers historically supported abundant fish populations. However, like many river systems, these rivers have been greatly altered through the creation of navigation channels and other anthropogenic disturbances, resulting in the loss of fish and wildlife habitat and declines in native fish populations. To ameliorate this environmental degradation, artificial fish spawning reefs were constructed in the St. Clair and Detroit rivers. One native species to potentially benefit from artificial reefs is the Northern Madtom Noturus stigmosus , a small ictalurid that is listed as endangered in the state of Michigan and the province of Ontario. Between 2016 and 2018, artificial reefs and nearby control sites were sampled in the St. Clair and Detroit rivers to compare the number of Northern Madtoms. In total, 171 Northern Madtoms were captured in 1,848 minnow traps with one of four bait types: cheese, dog food, worms, or control (no bait). Baited minnow traps successfully captured Northern Madtoms in the fast-flowing, deep water of the St. Clair–Detroit River system, and catch rates were significantly higher when traps were baited with worms. The number of Northern Madtoms captured was lower in the Detroit River than in the St. Clair River and increased with increasing water temperature and turbidity. Artificial reefs constructed in the St. Clair–Detroit River system are providing habitat for Northern Madtoms; however, use did not differ between reef sites and nearby control sites. This work provides insight regarding sampling strategies to target Northern Madtoms in large-river systems and highlights the importance of incorporating a temporal sampling strategy into survey design.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2021

Cross-ecosystem fluxes of pesticides from prairie wetlands mediated by aquatic insect emergence: Implications for terrestrial insectivores

Contaminants alter the quantity and quality of insect prey available to terrestrial insectivores. In agricultural regions, the quantity of aquatic insects emerging from freshwaters can be impacted by insecticides originating from surrounding croplands. We hypothesized that, in such regions, adult aquatic insects could also act as vectors of pesticide transfer to terrestrial food webs. To estimate insect-mediated pesticide flux from wetlands embedded in an important agricultural landscape, semipermanetly and temporarily ponded wetlands were surveyed in cropland and grassland landscapes across a natural salinity gradient in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota (USA) during the bird breeding season in 2015 and 2016 ( n = 14 and 15 wetlands, respectively). Current-use pesticides, including the herbicide atrazine and the insecticides bifenthrin and imidacloprid, were detected in newly emerged insects. Pesticide detections were similar in insects emerging from agricultural and grassland wetlands. Biomass of emerging aquatic insects decreased 43%, and insect-mediated pesticide flux increased 50% along the observed gradient in concentrations of insecticides in emerging aquatic insects (from 3 to 577 ng total insecticide g –1 insect). Overall, adult aquatic insects were estimated to transfer between 2 and 180 µg total pesticide wetland –1 d –1 to the terrestrial ecosystem. In one of the 2 study years, biomass of emerging adult aquatic insects was also 73% lower from agricultural than grassland wetlands and was dependent on salinity. Our results suggest that accumulated insecticides reduce the availability of adult aquatic insect prey for insectivores and potentially increase insectivore exposure to insect-borne pesticides. Adult aquatic insects retain pesticides across metamorphosis and may expose insectivores living near both agricultural and grassland wetlands to dietary sources of toxic chemicals.

Alberta, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota, Montana, North↗

USGS2021

The American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) genoscape: Implications for monitoring, management, and subspecies boundaries

Identifying population genetic structure is useful for inferring evolutionary process and comparing the resulting structure with subspecies boundaries can aid in species management. The American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) is a widespread and highly diverse species with 17 total subspecies, only 2 of which are found north of U.S./Mexico border ( F. s. paulus is restricted to southeastern United States, while F. s. sparverius breeds across the remainder of the U.S. and Canadian distribution). In many parts of their U.S. and Canadian range, American Kestrels have been declining, but it has been difficult to interpret demographic trends without a clearer understanding of gene flow among populations. Here we sequence the first American Kestrel genome and scan the genome of 197 individuals from 12 sampling locations across the United States and Canada in order to identify population structure. To validate signatures of population structure and fill in sampling gaps across the U.S. and Canadian range, we screened 192 outlier loci in an additional 376 samples from 34 sampling locations. Overall, our analyses support the existence of 5 genetically distinct populations of American Kestrels—eastern, western, Texas, Florida, and Alaska. Interestingly, we found that while our genome-wide genetic data support the existence of previously described subspecies boundaries in the United States and Canada, genetic differences across the sampled range correlate more with putative migratory phenotypes (resident, long-distance, and short-distance migrants) rather than a priori described subspecies boundaries per se. Based on our results, we suggest the resulting 5 genetically distinct populations serve as the foundation for American Kestrel conservation and management in the face of future threats.

Ornithology↗

USGS2021

A structured approach to remediation site assessment: Lessons from 15 years of fish spawning habitat creation in the St. Clair‐Detroit River system

Ideally, restoration re‐establishes natural processes in degraded habitats (e.g., flow and sediment regimes). However, in altered systems where process‐based restoration is not feasible, habitat construction is another approach to mitigate degradation. Because habitat construction does not directly focus on restoring processes that build and maintain desired habitats, projects must be developed and placed within the contemporary regulatory, ecological, and hydrogeomorphic context of a system, to maximize effectiveness. Here, we develop a framework for evaluating the regulatory, ecological, and hydrogeomorphic components using 15 years of fish spawning habitat construction in the St. Clair‐Detroit River System. The process began by identifying regulatory requirements at a coarse resolution to quickly focus on locations where ecological potential and hydrogeomorphic constraints could be assessed at finer resolutions. Next, ecological potential was assessed using a lithophilic fish spawning habitat suitability index. The suitability index identified five sites for habitat construction and Lake sturgeon spawning was documented at each site following construction. However, qualitative monitoring showed fine sediments accumulated at older sites. Thus, geomorphic assessments were incorporated to identify sediment sources and model flow within targeted areas. Since geomorphic assessments required the finest resolution and had the most uncertainty, they were conducted after broad‐scale regulatory considerations and ecological assessments narrowed focus to a few candidate sites. The order of operations identified in this case study evolved from the iterative approach of the restoration team, but in retrospect, it helped develop a framework that directed project development resources to aspects with more uncertainty, where learning is most critical.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2021

Virulence and infectivity of UC, MD and L strains of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in four populations of Columbia River Basin Chinook salmon

Infectious Hematopoietic Necrosis Virus (IHNV) infects juvenile salmonid fish in conservation hatcheries and aquaculture facilities, and in some cases, causes lethal disease. This study assesses intra-specific variation in the IHNV susceptibility of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Columbia River Basin (CRB), in the northwestern United States. The virulence and infectivity of IHNV strains from three divergent virus genogroups are measured in four Chinook salmon populations, including spring-run and fall-run fish from the lower or upper regions of the CRB. Following controlled laboratory exposures, our results show that the positive control L strain had significantly higher virulence, and the UC and MD strains that predominate in the CRB had equivalently low virulence, consistent with field observations. By several experimental measures, there was little variation in host susceptibility to infection or disease. However, a small number of exceptions suggested that the lower CRB spring-run Chinook salmon population may be less susceptible than other populations tested. The UC and MD viruses did not differ in infectivity, indicating that the observed asymmetric field prevalence in which IHNV detected in CRB Chinook salmon is 83% UC and 17% MD is not due to the UC virus being more infectious. Overall, we report little intra-species variation in CRB Chinook salmon susceptibility to UC or MD IHNV infection or disease, and suggest that other factors may instead influence the ecology of IHNV in the CRB.

Columbia River Basin↗

USGS2021

The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences

This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock‐advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016) . Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock‐advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Balancing the need for seed against invasive species risks in prairie habitat restorations

Adequate diversity and abundance of native seed for large-scale grassland restorations often require commercially produced seed from distant sources. However, as sourcing distance increases, the likelihood of inadvertent introduction of multiple novel, non-native weed species as seed contaminants also increases. We created a model to determine an “optimal maximum distance” that would maximize availability of native prairie seed from commercial sources while minimizing the risk of novel invasive weeds via contamination. The model focused on the central portion of the Level II temperate prairie ecoregion in the Midwest US. The median optimal maximum distance from which to source seed was 272 km (169 miles). In addition, we weighted the model to address potential concerns from restoration practitioners: 1. sourcing seed via a facilitated migration strategy (i.e., direct movement of species from areas south of a given restoration site to assist species’ range expansion) to account for warming due to climate change; and 2. emphasizing non-native, exotic species with a federal mandate to control. Weighting the model for climate change increased the median optimal maximum distance to 398 km (247 miles), but this was not statistically different from the distance calculated without taking sourcing for climate adaptation into account. Weighting the model for federally mandated exotic species increased the median optimal maximum distance only slightly to 293 km (182 miles), so practitioners may not need to adjust their sourcing strategy, compared to the original model. This decision framework highlights some potential inadvertent consequences from species translocations and provides insight on how to balance needs for prairie seed against those risks.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Manitoba, Minnesota, Misso↗

USGS2021

Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain

Dynamic strains have never played a role in determining local earthquake magnitudes, which are routinely set by displacement waveforms from seismic instrumentation (e.g., M L ⁠ ). We present a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms. This scale is derived from the peak root‐mean‐squared strains ( ⁠ A ⁠ ) in 4589 records of dynamic strain associated with 365 crustal earthquakes and 77 borehole strainmeters along the Pacific‐North American plate boundary on the west coast of the United States and Canada. In this data set, catalog moment magnitudes range from 3.5≤ M w ≤ 7.2 ⁠ , and hypocentral distances range from 6≤ R ≤500 km . The 1D representation of geometrical spreading and attenuation of A common to all strain data is log A 0 ( R )=−0.00072R−1.45log(R) . After correcting for instrument gain, site terms, and event terms, the magnitude scale, M DS =log A −log A 0 ( R )−log(3×10−9) ⁠ , scales as ≈0.92 M w with a residual standard deviation of 0.19. This close association with M w holds for events east of the −124° meridian; west of this boundary, however, a constant correction of 0.41 is needed to adjust for additional along‐path attenuation effects. As a check on the accuracy of this magnitude scale, we apply it to dynamic strain records from three strainmeters located in the near field of the 2019 M 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes. Results from these six records are in agreement to within 0.5 magnitude units, and five out of six records are in agreement to within 0.34 units.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Whole‐genome resequencing reveals persistence of forest‐associated mammals in Late Pleistocene refugia along North America’s North Pacific Coast

Aim Numerous glacial refugia have been hypothesized along North America's North Pacific Coast that may have increased divergence of refugial taxa, leading to elevated endemism and subsequently clustered hybrid zones following deglaciation. The locations and community composition of these ice‐free areas remains controversial, but whole‐genome sequences now enable detailed analysis of the demographic and evolutionary histories of refugial taxa. Here, we use genomic data to test spatial and temporal processes of diversification among martens with respect to the Coastal Refugium Hypothesis, to understand the role of climate cycling in shaping diversity across complex landscapes. Location North America and North Pacific Coast archipelagos. Taxon North American martens ( Martes ). Methods Short‐read whole‐genome resequencing data were generated for 11 martens: four M. americana , four M. caurina , two hybrids, and one outgroup ( Martes zibellina ). Sampling was representative of known genetic clades within New World martens, including sampling within insular and continental hybrid zones and along the North Pacific Coast (five island populations). ADMIXTURE , F‐statistics, and D ‐statistics (ABBA‐BABA) were used to identify introgression and infer directionality. Heterozygosity densities, estimated via PSMC, were used to characterize historical demography at and below the species level to infer refugial and colonization processes. Results Forest‐associated Pacific martens ( M. caurina ) are divided into distinct insular and continental clades consistent with the Coastal Refugium Hypothesis. There was no evidence of introgression on islands that received historical translocations of American pine martens ( M. americana ), but introgression was detected in two active zones of secondary contact: one insular and one continental. Only early‐generational hybrids were identified across multiple hybrid zones, a pattern consistent with potential genetic swamping of M. caurina by M. americana . Main conclusions Despite an incomplete fossil record, genomic evidence supports the persistence of forest‐associated martens, likely the insular Pacific marten lineage, along the western edges of the Alexander Archipelago during the Last Glacial Maximum. This discovery informs our understanding of refugial paleoenvironments, critical to interpreting refugial timing, duration, and community composition. Genomic reevaluations of other taxa along North America's North Pacific Coast may yield new and deeper perspectives on the history of refugial forest communities and the role of dynamic climate shifts in shaping high‐latitude diversity across complex insular landscapes.

Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon, Wash↗