Geology topics

Research about Canada, United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Comparison of traditional and geometric morphometrics using Lake Huron ciscoes of the Coregonus artedi complex

Here we determine how traditional morphometrics (TM) compares with geometric morphometrics (GM) in discriminating among morphologies of four forms of ciscoes of the Coregonus artedi complex collected from Lake Huron. One of the forms comprised two groups of the same deepwater cisco separated by capture depth, whereas the other three forms were shallow-water ciscoes. Our three groups of shallow-water ciscoes were better separated (3% versus 19% overlap) in Principle Component Analysis (PCA) with TM data than with GM data incorporating semilandmarks (evenly spaced nonhomologous landmarks used to bridge between widely separated homologous landmarks). Our two deepwater cisco groups, comprising a putatively single form collected from different depths, separated more in PCAs with GM data (33% overlap) than in PCAs with TM data (66% overlap), an anomaly caused by greater decompression of the swimbladder and deformation of the body wall in the group captured at greater depths. Separation of the two deepwater cisco groups captured at different depths was not affected by the removal of semilandmarks. Assignment of forms using canonical variate analysis (CVA) accurately assigned 86% of individuals using TM data, 98% of individuals using GM data incorporating semilandmarks, and 100% of individuals using GM data without semilandmarks. However, we considered assignments from the same form of deepwater cisco into separate groups as misassignments resulting from different capture depths, which reduced the accuracy of assignments with GM data to 66% with semilandmarks. Our study implies that TM will continue to have an important role in morphological discrimination within Coregonus and other fishes similarly shaped.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2023

Genetic diversity and connectivity of moose (Alces americanus americanus) in eastern North America

Genetic diversity is critical to a population’s ability to overcome gradual environment change. Large-bodied wildlife existing in regions with relatively high human population density are vulnerable to isolation-induced genetic drift, population bottlenecks, and loss of genetic diversity. Moose ( Alces americanus americanus ) in eastern North America have a complex history of drastic population changes. Current and potential threats to moose populations in this region could be exacerbated by loss of genetic diversity and connectivity among subpopulations. Existing genetic diversity, gene flow, and population clustering and fragmentation of eastern North American moose are not well quantified, while physical and anthropogenic barriers to population connectivity already exist. Here, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping of 507 moose spanning five northeastern U.S. states and one southeastern Canadian province indicated low diversity, with a high proportion of the genomes sharing identity-by-state, with no consistent evidence of non-random mating. Gene flow estimates indicated bidirectionality between all pairs of sampled areas, with magnitudes reflecting clustering and differentiation patterns. A Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components analysis indicated that these genotypic data were best described with four clusters and indicated connectivity across the Saint Lawrence River and Seaway, a potential physical barrier to gene flow. Tests for genetic differentiation indicated restricted gene flow between populations across the Saint Lawrence River and Seaway, and between many sampled areas facing expanding human activity. These results document current genetic variation and connectivity of moose populations in eastern North America, highlight potential challenges to current population connectivity, and identify areas for future research and conservation.

New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Massa↗

USGS2023

Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions

Contemporary climate change is modifying the distribution, morphology, phenology, physiology, evolution, and interspecific interactions of species. Effects of climate change are mediated not only through the magnitude of change experienced (exposure) and an animal's sensitivity to such changes, but also through the ability of the population or species to adjust to climatic variability and change genetically, behaviorally, or spatially (via its distribution) (i.e., adaptive capacity; AC). Here, we used an attribute-based framework to systematically evaluate and compare the AC of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) against four other mountain-dwelling small mammals of North America to determine whether pikas are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, as has been postulated. Unlike previous analyses, we also compared AC across O. princeps lineages and across three taxonomic (and thus, spatial) scales. Our results indicate that pikas have markedly lower adaptive capacity than all compared species except bushy-tailed woodrats ( Neotoma cinerea ), and that our assessments of species generally align with earlier characterizations of climate-change vulnerability based on life-history characteristics. Although AC did not differ dramatically among pika lineages, some attributes are likely constraining AC differently in various parts of the geographic range. Comparisons across taxonomic levels of pikas illustrated that, although AC levels were comparable in pika lineages versus range-wide, AC was assessed as lower in interior-Great-Basin pikas than across the entire O.p. schisticeps lineage. We conclude that the comparatively lower AC of pikas results in particularly high susceptibility to anthropogenic climate change, corroborating results from numerous other recent investigations of pikas' climate-responsiveness. Adaptive-capacity evaluations appear useful as a consistent way to identify sentinel species or populations and for conservation prioritization.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2023

Intra-specific variation in responses to habitat restoration: Could artificial reefs increase spatiotemporal segregation between migratory phenotypes of lake sturgeon?

Habitat restoration is an important tool used to conserve biodiversity and restore species, but its effects are notoriously difficult to predict. Although outcomes of restoration projects are usually assessed using indices of species abundance and diversity, phenotypic differences among individuals within species are likely associated with differing responses to restored habitats. Here, we use lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) as a case study to illustrate how responses to habitat restoration can differ between phenotypes and potentially lead to unanticipated effects on populations. North America’s St. Clair River supports one of the largest remaining populations of lake sturgeon but has lost much spawning habitat due to its role as a major industrial corridor between the Laurentian Great Lakes Erie and Huron. Two artificial reefs were recently built in the lower and middle segments of the river to increase the available sturgeon spawning habitat. Interestingly, lake sturgeon in the St. Clair River express different migratory phenotypes that may be associated with different likelihoods of colonizing artificial reefs. Acoustic telemetry revealed that artificial reefs were more likely to be used by sturgeon that migrated downstream to overwinter in Lake St. Clair than those that migrated upstream to overwinter in Lake Huron. Furthermore, increasing time spent at the artificial reefs by Lake St. Clair migrants was associated with later arrival to and shorter occupancy of the river’s only natural spawning site, the primary location where the two phenotypes have opportunity to interbreed. Additional research is necessary to determine the ultimate impacts of the artificial reefs on lake sturgeon populations; nevertheless, our study showed phenotype-specific opportunity to colonize restored habitat and a mechanism through which this could lead to changes in gene flow. Our results illustrate the importance of considering intra-specific diversity when planning restoration projects and assessing the effects on populations.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2023

Climate-induced shifts in grassland bird nesting phenology have implications for grassland management

Grasslands are among the most impacted ecosystems globally. In the midcontinent of North America, a > 80% loss of grasslands has made their conservation a major priority for resource managers. Grassland ecosystems evolved under periodic disturbances; consequently, grassland management often involves regular actions such as grazing, haying, or burning to maintain ecosystem integrity. The timing of such practices has direct implications on grassland ecology, agricultural economics, and survival and fecundity of grassland nesting birds (hereafter grassland birds). We conducted a meta-analysis on the nesting phenology of grassland birds throughout North America, focusing on nest-survival literature. We constructed a well-fitting model to predict median date of expected nest departure (hereafter fledge date) for grassland birds across the midcontinent. Predictions from our model demonstrate considerable spatial variation in median nesting phenology that is predictable using a spatially explicit spring phenology index. Median fledge dates were 8 or 13 days earlier in years of extreme weather conditions (dry or wet, respectively) than in years of average conditions. Species that generally nest in taller vegetation tended to have later median nest phenologies than those using shorter vegetation. Our results incorporate the most rigorous information available in the literature on nesting phenology of 36 grassland bird species and improve information available to managers about nesting phenology of grassland birds in the midcontinent of North America. Our predictions approximate the day when one-half of the nesting efforts would be complete for a given area within the midcontinent grasslands and can inform management and conservation decisions about the timing of management actions in grassland ecosystems.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Lake Ontario’s nearshore zooplankton: Community composition changes and comparisons to the offshore

In large lake systems the nearshore habitat is an intermediate zone between the shoreline and offshore, is an important nursery for larval fish, and is highlighted as an area in need of research in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In this study, we used two long-term monitoring programs to characterize the nearshore zooplankton community composition using seasonal data (May – October) and to compare the nearshore and offshore zooplankton community composition changes over time (1998 – 2019) to determine if the changes were synchronized. In the nearshore, we found the highest zooplankton biomass during the late summer/early fall (August 27th – Oct 6th), compared to mid-summer (July 1st – Aug 26th) and late spring (May 20th – June 30th). In the summer, the nearshore zooplankton community was dominated by cladocerans while copepods dominated the offshore community. From 1998 to 2019, both nearshore and offshore copepods shifted from a cyclopoid to a calanoid-dominated state, but the details of this change were different. For example, taxon-specific analysis revealed that despite reduced cyclopoids in both habitats, Mesocyclops edax increased in the nearshore. Additionally, taxon-specific analysis suggested the changes occurred an average of three years earlier in the nearshore. Using Analysis of Similarity, the nearshore and offshore summer zooplankton community compositions became increasingly distinct over time. Results from this study highlight the uniqueness of the nearshore in large lake systems, the importance of seasonal and long-term monitoring, and the potential of the nearshore as an early indicator of offshore changes.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2023

Large-scale variation in lakebed properties interpreted from single-beam sonar in two Laurentian Great Lakes

Acoustic seabed classification (ASC) is an important method for understanding landscape-level physical and biological patterns in the aquatic environment. Bottom habitats in the Laurentian Great Lakes are poorly mapped to date, and will require a variety of contributors and data sources to complete. We repurposed a long-term split-beam echosounder dataset gathered for purposes of fisheries assessment to estimate lakebed properties utilizing unsupervised classification of echo return data. We interpreted first echo properties representing lakebed hardness and roughness to define and map three statistically supported lakebed classes revealed through cluster analysis. Our results indicate coherent and logical class boundaries and suggest that the dataset has promise for expanded use in ASC. To improve inferences using repeated measures, future work should focus on collecting ground truth information for areas previously surveyed and on collecting concurrent ground truth information when sampling acoustic data moving forward.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Intra-lake trends and inter-lake comparisons of Mysis diluviana life history variables and their relationships to food limitation

The opossum shrimp, Mysis diluviana , is an important member of the offshore food webs of the Laurentian Great Lakes, but its response to ecosystem changes that have occurred over the past several decades is not well understood. We combined the data of four long-term sampling programs, adding several years of data (post and prior) to previously published analyses to offer a longer-term, cross-basin analysis of M. diluviana populations in the Great Lakes from 1997 to 2019. Densities were high in lakes Superior and Ontario (summer values 100–300/m 2 ), high and variable but declining (from 200–300/m 2 in 1997–2004 to less than 100/m 2 in 2017–2019) in Lake Michigan, low (∼20–50/m 2 since 2005) in Lake Huron, and very low in shallower eastern Lake Erie (<1/m 2 ). Biomass showed similar trends. Life history parameters (mortality, fecundity, and growth) were consistently highest in eastern Lake Erie, followed by lakes Ontario, Michigan, Huron, and Superior. Generation time was 1 year in Lake Erie and 2 years in the other lakes. Cross-basin relationships between annual M. diluviana areal densities and food indices (chlorophyll-a concentration and zooplankton biomass) were non-linear, increasing with food levels up to about 250 mysids/m 2 and about 650 mg dry wt/m 2 . Annual growth rates were also positively correlated to both food indices in the four deep lakes, but fecundity and mortality rates were not. Our results suggest food availability is a primary factor predicting M. diluviana density and biomass. Density-dependent mortality and fish predation could explain some of the inter-lake differences, but these relationships could benefit from further investigations.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Efficient modeling of wave generation and propagation in a semi-enclosed estuary

Accurate, and high-resolution wave statistics are critical for regional hazard mapping and planning. However, long-term simulations at high spatial resolution are often computationally prohibitive. Here, multiple rapid frameworks including fetch-limited, look-up-table (LUT), and linear propagation are combined and tested in a large estuary exposed to both remotely (swell) and locally generated waves. Predictions are compared with observations and a traditional SWAN implementation coupled to a regional hydrodynamic model. Fetch-limited and LUT approaches both perform well where local winds dominate with errors about 10%–20% larger than traditional SWAN predictions. Combinations of these rapid approaches with linear propagation methods where remotely generated energy is present also perform well with errors 0%–20% larger than traditional SWAN predictions. Model–model comparisons exhibit lower variance than comparisons to observations suggesting that, while model implementation impacts prediction skill, model boundary conditions (winds, offshore waves) may be a dominant source of error. Overall results suggest that with a relatively small loss in prediction accuracy, simulations computation cost can be significantly reduced (by 2–4 orders of magnitude) allowing for high resolution and long-term predictions to adequately define regional wave statistics.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS2023

A 1300-year microfaunal record from the Beaufort Sea shelf indicates exceptional climate-related environmental changes over the last two centuries

The environments of Arctic Ocean nearshore areas experience high intra- and inter-annual variability, making it difficult to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic warming. However, a sediment record from the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea allowed us to reconstruct the impacts of climate and environmental changes over the last 1300 years along the northern Yukon coast, Canada. The coring site (PG2303; 69.513°N, 138.895°W; water depth 32 m) is located in the Herschel Basin, where high sedimentation rates (0.1–0.5 cm a −1 ) allowed analyses at sub-centennial to decadal resolutions. Benthic foraminiferal, ostracod, and tintinnid assemblages, as well as the stable isotope composition of the foraminifera Elphidium clavatum and Cassidulina reniforme were used as paleoclimatic and ecological indicators, while the age model was based on the combined radiometric data of 14 C, 210 Pb and 137 Cs . From ca 700 to 1050 CE, our data suggest penetration of offshore shelf-break waters inferred by the dominance of C. reniforme followed by the relatively abundant Triloculina trihedra in the foraminiferal assemblages as both species are associated with stable saline conditions. Afterwards, the occurrence of ostracods Kotoracythere arctoborealis and Normanicythere leioderma suggests influx of Pacific-sourced waters until ca. 1150 CE. From ∼1150–1650 CE, persistent frigid waters, limited sediment supply, and low abundances of microfossils suggest cold conditions with pervasive annual sea-ice cover that may have restricted upwelling of oceanic waters. After ∼1800 CE, the co-occurrence of Tintinnopsis fimbriata and bacterial/complex organic carbon feeder foraminifera ( Quinqueloculina stalkeri , Textularia earlandi and Stetsonia horvathi ), suggest an increased influence of freshwater rich in particulate organic matter, which may be related to the spreading of the Mackenzie River plume and/or increased coastal permafrost erosion during longer ice-free seasons. Based on these proxy data, the shift at ∼1800 CE marks the onset of regional warming, which further intensified after ∼1955 CE, likely in response to the anthropogenic forcing.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2023

The Arctic Rivers Project: Using an equitable co-production framework for integrating meaningful community engagement and science to understand climate impacts

As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community-engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project-specific knowledge co-production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co-produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Longitudinal analyses of catch-at-age data for reconstructing year-class strength, with an application to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in the main basin of Lake Huron

We investigated using longitudinal models to reconstruct year-class strength (YCS) from catch-at-age data, with an example application to lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in the main basin of Lake Huron. The best model structure depended on the age range used for model implementation. The YCS trajectory from the full age range (3–30 years) was similar to the trajectory from a narrow age range that approximated the age of recruitment to the fishing gears (5–7 years), but YCS estimates from the full age range included additional variations due to time-dependent selectivity and mortality. When using ages younger or older than the likely ages of recruitment, YCS estimates did not represent recruitment abundances and were also biased by trends in age-specific selectivity and mortality across years. Longitudinal YCS estimates are likely more robust than single-age recruitment indices, which are often subject to interannual changes in catchability and selectivity. Our findings provide guidance for future applications of the longitudinal YCS reconstruction that in turn may inform and supplement more comprehensive research and management programs for understanding fish recruitment dynamics.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2023

Geochronology and mapping constraints on the time-space evolution of the igneous and hydrothermal systems in the Taurus Cu-Mo district, eastern Alaska

The Taurus porphyry Cu-Mo district contains four mineralized porphyry centers in the eastern interior of Alaska. All four centers were emplaced during a magmatic episode that spanned from ca. 72 to 67 Ma, with seven distinct igneous suites. Each igneous suite resulted in hydrothermal alteration and mineralization, with younger pulses overprinting older pulses. Each magmatic-hydrothermal system is not present at all four mineralized centers. Apart from the Dennison occurrence, each mineralized center records pulses of repeated intermediate-silicic magmatism and associated alteration and mineralization. Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry U-Pb zircon crystallization ages indicate that an early quartz porphyry dike swarm ranges in age from ca. 71 to 70 Ma and is associated with potassic, sericitic, and propylitic alteration. Quartz latite intrusions were emplaced at ca. 69 Ma and exhibit early sodiccalcic alteration overprinted by potassic, sericitic, and propylitic alteration. The Taurus monzonite suite is cut by quartz latite but yielded an ca. 70 Ma emplacement age and exhibits the largest footprint of potassic and sericitic alteration. Feldspar porphyry dikes were emplaced ca. 69 Ma and have significant tourmaline-bearing potassic and sericitic alteration. This suite was followed by development of an igneous breccia with a monzonitic igneous matrix. Sodic-calcic alteration was associated with the igneous brecciation. A small stock of monzonite was emplaced at ca. 68 Ma causing locally pervasive sericite-tourmaline-pyrite alteration. The youngest suite of magmatism dated in the district is a series of granodiorite porphyry dikes with weak sodic-calcic and propylitic alteration that truncates earlier alteration assemblages. Mineralization in the district consists of chalcopyrite and molybdenite associated with sugary quartz veins with potassium feldspar and biotite alteration envelopes (A veins). Less common banded quartz-molybdenite veins (B veins) occur with potassium feldspar envelopes. Gold occurs throughout the district and is strongly correlated with copper grade. Sericitic alteration contains lower copper contents and is predominantly associated with quartz-pyrite veins with sericite envelopes (D veins). Pyrrhotite and local arsenopyrite are present in sericitic assemblages. Pyrrhotite also occurs as inclusions in pyrite within D veins. Magmas across the district exhibit oxidized characteristics, evidenced by the presence of abundant magnetite, rare titanite, and elevated Eu/Eu* and Ce/Ce* in zircon. Zircon Th/U and Yb/Gd compositions suggest a fractionation path controlled by apatite, titanite, and hornblende. Zircon rare earth element ratios and trace element data indicate two distinct batches of magma evolved from mafic parental compositions to monzonite and granodioritic compositions via fractional crystallization. In the early pulse of magma (ca. 72–69 Ma), fractional crystallization was key to ore formation. Earlier, better mineralized suites evolve to less negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* > 0.7), indicating more oxidized and higher-water-pressure conditions evidenced by the suppression of plagioclase crystallization, compared to later, more poorly mineralized suites. The temporal and spatial evolution of the district was determined from mapping and U-Pb and Re-Os geochronology. Mapping of igneous and hydrothermal assemblages indicates that the locus of the intrusive suites and hydrothermal systems shifted spatially over time, based on the presence of high-temperature (K-silicate–dominant) alteration, which is coincident with the highest Cu and Au grades. The earliest hydrothermal system was centered at Bluff and East Taurus and transitioned to West Taurus during emplacement of the second magmatic suite. Emplacement of the third magmatic suite was centered back at East Taurus, and the fourth and fifth suites were centered at West Taurus. The latest suites were widespread without a core of high-temperature alteration marking a central locus. East Taurus contains the overlap of six of the seven magmatic and hydrothermal suites and has the highest intersected grades and tonnages in the district. The Bluff and Dennison occurrences exhibit fewer igneous suites and hydrothermal assemblages with weak mineralization. Sodic-calcic alteration, common on the deep and distal flanks of porphyry systems, is only present at West Taurus and is indicative of a localized source of high-salinity nonmagmatic fluids.

Alaska, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2023

Status and trends of the Lake Huron prey fish community, 1976-2021

The U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center has assessed annual changes in the offshore prey fish community of Lake Huron since 1973. Assessments are based on a bottom trawl survey conducted in October of each year and an acoustics-midwater trawl survey, which began in 2004 and is conducted in September-October. Due to weather delays and continued travel restrictions during 2021, there were no bottom trawl samples off the port of Goderich, Ontario and two acoustic transects were cancelled in Georgian Bay. Prey fish biomass in Lake Huron in 2021 was dominated by two species, Bloater (Coregonus hoyi) and Rainbow Smelt (Osmerus mordax). In the main basin, prey fish biomass remained below levels observed prior to community-wide declines that began in the early to mid 1990s. Bloater was the most abundant prey fish species in the main basin, whereas Rainbow Smelt was the most abundant prey species in the North Channel and in Georgian Bay. Both surveys suggested that Bloater biomass is increasing in the main basin. Low biomass of invasive species like Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and Rainbow Smelt is consistent with fish community objectives focused on restoration of native fish communities. Abundance of invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) increased in 2021 relative to 2019-2020. Biomass of the native Cisco (Coregonus artedi) increased in the North Channel in 2021 but remained low in Georgian Bay, possibly as an artifact of reduced sampling. Biomass of Slimy Sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and Deepwater Sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsoni) in 2021 remained low but within the range observed over the past decade. Reduced lake productivity, predation by a recovering piscivore community, and shifts in food web dynamics that favor fish production in nearshore environments may prevent prey fish biomass in offshore areas from returning to levels observed prior to the early 1990s. However, increased biomass of Bloater and Cisco suggests that lake conditions may favor recovery of native corgonines.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2023

Characterizing historic streamflow to support drought planning in the upper Missouri River basin

This project combined tree-ring based paleo and modern climate and hydrologic research aimed at understanding the primary influences on drought risk and water reliability in basins critical for western U.S. water resources. New paleohydrologic datasets and analyses were developed and applied to contextualize future streamflow projections and address specific water management questions. These questions centered around optimizing future water management protocols for numerous objectives ranging from improving agricultural water allocation during drought while maintaining instream flows for aquatic ecosystem health, to the testing of operations across large river systems with complex infrastructure critical for downstream flood control, navigation, and hydropower generation. USGS scientists worked closely with the Bureau of Reclamation to estimate both past and future drought risk at key management locations throughout the Missouri basin, the Milk and St. Mary River system, and across the major managed river systems in the western United States. These efforts provided a roadmap for future water management strategies under changing climate and water supply conditions, which are detailed in Reclamation’s newly completed Missouri Headwaters Basin Study, the 2021 SECURE Water Act Report, and the forthcoming update of the St. Mary and Milk Rivers Basin Study. Among the major scientific findings to emerge was a new understanding of the long-term (1200-year) history of drought variability for the Missouri River, which highlighted the unusual severity of the early 2000s drought across the Rocky Mountain headwaters and adjacent high plains. By combining the extended drought record with extensive modern and paleoclimate records, we document how warming exacerbates severities of naturally occurring droughts, with recent decades defined by “hot” droughts and the 2000s (2001-2010) drought ranking as the most severe event in 1200 years. Increasingly severe drought events such as this strain already over-allocated water resources that multiple sectors of society depend heavily upon.

upper Missouri River basin↗

USGS2023

Status and trends in the Lake Superior fish community, 2022

In 2022, the Lake Superior fish community was sampled with daytime bottom and surface trawls at 71 nearshore locations in May-June and 35 offshore locations in July, and at 51 Coordinated Science and Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) locations in July-October with bottom trawls, surface trawls, mid-water trawls and acoustics that were previously sampled in 2011 and 2016. Nearshore bottom trawls collected 11,603 fish from 25 species or morphotypes. Nearshore mean biomass was 1.6 kg per ha which was one of the lowest biomass estimates over survey’s 45-year history. Offshore bottom trawls collected 13,876 fish from 11 species or morphotypes. Offshore mean biomass was 5.1 kg per ha, which was less than the annual average since 2011 of 6.5 kg per ha. Recruitment, as measured by age-1 densities, was near zero for Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Cisco ( C. artedi ), and Kiyi ( C. kiyi ), 2 age-1 fish per ha for Lake Whitefish ( C. clupeaformis ) and 77 age-1 fish for Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ). All were less than the long-term averages. Sampling at the CSMI locations collected 26 species and morphotypes. The most abundant species’ lakewide were Deepwater Sculpin (all years), young-of-year ciscoe (Bloater, Cisco, and Kiyi, 2022), and Rainbow Smelt (2011 and 2016). Cisco had the highest estimated lakewide biomass in 2011 and 2022 and siscowet Lake Trout had the highest estimated lakewide biomass in 2016. Native species were more abundant than invasive species by numbers (80, 65, and 92%) and biomass (94, 93, 96%) in 2011, 2016, and 2022, respectively. Total lakewide benthic fish biomass declined from 47 thousand metric tons in 2011 to 29 thousand metric tons in 2016 and increased to 33 thousand metric tons in 2022. Total lakewide pelagic fish biomass declined from 61 thousand metric tons in 2011 to 25 thousand metric tons in 2016 and increased to 54 thousand metric tons in 2022. The most unexpected result from our sampling in 2022 was the 2 billion age-0 ciscoe estimate from the mid-water trawl and acoustic sampling in August-October. These fish were broadly distributed across the lake, being collected at 53 of the 54 locations, and their population estimates were highest in the depths >100 m. The factors underlying the survival of these ciscoes into late summer in 2022 as compared to previous years have not been identified, but our annual population surveys of larval ciscoes suggests that lake conditions in June and July may have differed from previous years and enhanced survival. In 2022, ciscoe larval densities in May were lower than average (likely due to a cold winter and spring that delayed hatching), June densities were similar to previous years, and July density estimates were more than double that of any previous year’s estimate.

Lake Superior↗