Geology topics

Research about Canada, United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, United States.

At least 235 records · Page 13Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Modeling extreme water levels in the Salish Sea: The importance of including remote sea level anomalies for application in hydrodynamic simulations

Extreme water-level recurrence estimates for a complex estuary using a high-resolution 2D model and a new method for estimating remotely generated sea level anomalies (SLAs) at the model boundary have been developed. The hydrodynamic model accurately resolves the dominant physical processes contributing to extreme water levels across the Washington State waters of the Salish Sea, including the relative contribution of remote SLA and other non-tidal residual processes that drive extreme water levels above the predicted tide. The model’s predictions have errors of less than 15 cm (<5% of 3–4 m tidal range) at eight tide gauge locations across the model domain. The influence of remote SLAs at the seaward boundary of the model was implemented using a multivariate regression of readily available and locally relevant wind, sea surface temperature, and pressure anomaly data, combined with El Niño Index data (R 2 = 0.76). The hydrodynamic model simulations using the remote SLA predictor compared well with simulations using the widely used data-assimilative global ocean model HYCOM SLA data (root mean square difference of 5.5 cm). Extreme water-level recurrence estimates with and without remote SLA show that remote forcing accounts for 50–60% of the total water level anomaly observed along Salish Sea shorelines. The resulting model simulations across decadal timescales provide estimates of extreme water level recurrence across the Salish Sea, capturing climate variability important to long-term coastal hazard planning. This approach has widespread applications for other complex estuarine systems.

Water↗

USGS2023

Development and application of a risk assessment tool for aquatic invasive species in the international Rainy-Lake of the Woods Basin, United States and Canada

The Rainy-Lake of the Woods Basin covers 70,000 square kilometers in mid-central North America and is contained within the Provinces of Ontario and Manitoba in Canada and the State of Minnesota in the United States. This basin contains natural wilderness areas, national parks, and thousands of lakes that bring outdoor enthusiasts from around the world for hunting, fishing, backpacking, boating, and other forms of recreation. However, trade, commerce, visitors, and wildlife can inadvertently transport hitchhiking exotic invasive species that affect the functioning of natural systems by displacing native organisms, introducing diseases, and modifying predator/prey relations. In cooperation with the International Joint Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the aquatic invasive species that pose a possible threat to North America. The outcome of this project is a set of lists of invasive species that have traits amenable or proximity to the Rainy-Lake of the Woods Basin. These lists can be referenced to further evaluate known and potential nonindigenous invasive species. The lists were derived by evaluating more than 1,500 species from several online sources including Non-Indigenous Aquatic Species, Great Lakes Aquatic Nonindigenous Species Information System, Biodiversity Information Serving Our Nation, and other State, Provincial, and Federal lists in the United States and Canada. The purpose of these lists is to be a coarse filter to determine which species pose the greatest risk to the Rainy-Lake of the Woods Basin. Using this filter, seven categories of risk assessment priorities were developed: Very High-Approaching, Very High-Present, High-Approaching, High-Present, Moderate, Low, and Native. These categories can be used by the International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Multi-Agency Arrangement Aquatic Invasive Species Subcommittee to prioritize which species will be evaluated further focusing on five risk factors: arrival risk, vulnerability assessment, ecological impact, socioeconomic impact, and beneficial impact. Based on proximity, ease of transport or introduction, and known impact to Rainy-Lake of the Woods or other impacted ecosystems, this project identified the following 10 species that could be prioritized first for risk evaluations: Bythotrephes longimanus (spiny waterflea), Faxonius rusticus (rusty crayfish), Neogobius melanostomus (round goby), Dreissena polymorpha (zebra mussel), Bithynia tentaculata (mud Bithynia or faucet snail), Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New Zealand mud snail), Butomus umbellatus (flowering rush), Nitellopsis obtusa (starry stonewort), Myriophyllum spicatum (Eurasian watermilfoil), and Phragmites australis australis (common reed).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Spatiotemporal dynamics of duck harvest distributions in the Central and Mississippi flyways, 1960–2019

Geographical distributions of waterfowl exhibit annual variation in response to spatiotemporal variation in weather conditions, habitat availability, and other factors. Continuing changes in climate and land use could lead to persistent shifts of waterfowl distributions, potentially causing a mismatch with habitat conservation planning, wetland restoration efforts, and harvest management decisions informed by historical distributions. We used band recoveries and harvest records (i.e., hunter-harvested wings) from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey as indices of duck distribution in autumn and winter, and quantified intra-annual, interannual, and interspecific variation in their geographic distributions across 6 decades (1960–2019) for 15 duck species in the Central and Mississippi flyways in North America. Specifically, we tested for annual and decadal shifts in mean latitude and longitude of recoveries for each month (Oct–Jan) by species and taxonomic guild (i.e., dabbling, diving ducks). Overall, species varied in the extent, timing, and sometimes direction, of distributional change in recoveries. From 1960–2019, mean recovery locations for dabbling ducks shifted south 105–296 km in October and 27 km in November (wings only), whereas mean latitudes shifted north 144–234 km in December and 186–301 km in January. Mean recovery locations for diving ducks shifted north 162 km in October (wings only), 84–173 km in December, and 66–120 km in January, but shifted 99–512 km south in November. Shifts in longitude were less consistent between guilds and data types. Finally, distributional change rarely accelerated during recent decades, except for southward shifts of band recoveries of diving ducks in November and northward shifts of band and wing recoveries of dabbling ducks in January. Although anecdotal accounts of large-scale northward shifts in duck distributions are prolific in the land management and hunting communities, our data demonstrate more subtle shifts that vary considerably by species and month. Observed changes in recovery distributions could necessitate changes in timing of habitat management practices throughout the Central and Mississippi flyways and may result in fewer hunting and recreational opportunities for some species in southern states. Quantifying patterns of historical change is a necessary first step to understanding temporal and interspecific variation in waterfowl distributions, which will help with landscape-scale conservation and management efforts in the future and enable effective communication to core constituencies regarding ongoing changes and their implications for recreational engagement.

The Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2023

Growth of coal mining operations in the Elk River Valley (Canada) linked to increasing solute transport of Se, NO3-, and SO42- into the transboundary Koocanusa Reservoir (USA-Canada)

Koocanusa Reservoir (KOC) is a waterbody that spans the United States (U.S.) and Canadian border. Increasing concentrations of total selenium (Se), nitrate + nitrite (NO 3 – , nitrite is insignificant or not present), and sulfate (SO 4 2– ) in KOC and downstream in the Kootenai River (Kootenay River in Canada) are tied to expanding coal mining operations in the Elk River Watershed, Canada. Using a paired watershed approach, trends in flow-normalized concentrations and loads were evaluated for Se, NO 3 – , and SO 4 2– for the two largest tributaries, the Kootenay and Elk Rivers, Canada. Increases in concentration (SO 4 2– 120%, Se 581%, NO 3 – 784%) and load (SO 4 2– 129%, Se 443%, NO 3 – 697%) in the Elk River (1979–2022 for NO 3 – , 1984–2022 for Se and SO 4 2– ) are among the largest documented increases in the primary literature, while only a small magnitude increase in SO 4 2– (7.7% concentration) and decreases in Se (−10%) and NO 3 – (−8.5%) were observed in the Kootenay River. Between 2009 and 2019, the Elk River contributed, on average, 29% of the combined flow, 95% of the Se, 76% of the NO 3 – , and 38% of the SO 4 2– entering the reservoir from these two major tributaries. The largest increase in solute concentrations occurred during baseflows, indicating a change in solute transport and delivery dynamics in the Elk River Watershed, which may be attributable to altered landscapes from coal mining operations including altered groundwater flow paths and increased chemical weathering in waste rock dumps. More recently there is evidence of surface water treatment operations providing some reduction in concentrations during low flow times of year; however, these appear to have a limited effect on annual loads entering KOC. These findings imply that current mine water treatment, which is focused on surface waters, may not sufficiently reduce the influence of mine-waste-derived solutes in the Elk River to allow constituent concentrations in KOC to meet U.S. water-quality standards.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2023

Networks of tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions for the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

Water resources in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are characterized by significant interannual to interdecadal variation. Paleo-proxy reconstructions such as those derived from tree-rings provide longer-term context and supplement information on this expected range of variability, which can improve planning, management, and response related to extreme events and hydrologic change. However, existing paleo-proxy reconstructions have yet to address the potential for pronounced within- and among-basin variations in the PNW due to a lack of spatial coverage. Here we develop methodologically consistent reconstructions for 36 gages in the PNW, including the Columbia and Snake River drainages, as well as key coastal watersheds. These reconstructions extend back at least to the 1500s coefficient of efficiency. Reconstruction skill is relatively high (mean R 2 = 0.63), and snowpack- or winter precipitation-sensitive chronologies from high-elevation sites provide important contributions to reconstruction skill. At the whole-region scale, reconstructed variability indicates evidence for drier and wetter years, more persistent decadal variability, and correspondingly longer episodes of deficit and surplus compared to instrumental records. Within the region, this expanded range of extremes appears especially prevalent in the Snake River and southern PNW watersheds. Regionally, cumulative deficits in the early 1500s and mid 1600s rival those of the early 20 th century, though persistence and timing vary widely among basins. These reconstructions suggest that considering within-region variability will be key for water management and planning under climate change, and that sub-regional adaptation strategies are likely to be advantageous.

Pacific Northwest↗

USGS2023

Assessing potential spawning locations of Silver Chub in Lake Erie

Objective Silver Chub Macrhybopsis storeriana , a predominately riverine species throughout its native range, exists within Lake Erie as the only known lake population. Its population declined in the 1950s and never fully recovered. Canada has listed Silver Chub in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River as endangered and has initiated a recovery plan that recognized the identification of spawning areas as a critical component to inform Silver Chub's recovery potential. Methods We investigated potential spawning locations of Silver Chub using capture records, otolith microchemistry, and daily age analysis. Lapillus otolith Sr:Ca ratios from 27 age-0 Silver Chub were used to identify potential spawning areas. Daily ages estimated from lapilli were used to calculate hatch dates, which then were compared with capture data of adults and river flows to further inform potential spawning areas. Result The Detroit River (and its nearshore area) was all but ruled out as a potential spawning location. The Maumee, Portage, and Sandusky rivers or their nearshore areas were all possible spawning locations. Projected hatch dates spanned the end of May through the end of June and occurred across a wide range of flows, although some peaks in hatch dates corresponded to flow peaks, indicating recruitment is potentially enhanced by high flows. Conclusion Silver Chub spawning period and hypothesized spawning rivers or lacustuaries overlap those of invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella , creating a need to jointly consider Grass Carp control efforts with conservation of Silver Chub when assessing management alternatives. Further research on spawning guild and the use of rivers themselves or nearshore areas influenced by rivers as spawning areas are required to maximize potential for conservation and recovery of Silver Chub.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of breeding distribution and chronology of North American scoters

North America's scoter species are poorly monitored relative to other waterfowl. Black Melanitta americana , surf M. perspicillata , and white-winged M. deglandi scoter abundance and trend estimates are thus uncertain in many parts of these species' ranges. The most extensive source of waterfowl abundance and distribution data in North America is the Waterfowl breeding population and habitat survey (WBPHS). Although the WBPHS effectively monitors most species, both its timing and geographic coverage may preclude accurate scoter monitoring. Therefore, our goal was to better define when and where scoters breed to help interpret survey results and optimize potential supplemental survey efforts for scoters. We integrated satellite telemetry tracking data from scoters marked at multiple molting, staging, breeding, and wintering areas along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to quantify continent-wide breeding chronology and distribution. We also examined possible drivers of variation in timing of arrival, length of stay, and departure at nesting locations. We documented a northwest to southeast distribution of estimated breeding sites across Alaska and Canada. On average, scoters arrived at nest sites on 1 June. Surf scoters and Pacific black scoters arrived earliest and departed earliest. Pacific-wintering black and white-winged scoters began breeding earlier than Atlantic-wintering birds. Additionally, birds arrived at nesting locations earlier in years with earlier snowmelt, and later snowmelt reduced lengths of stay for males. Breeding chronology also varied by age group, with adults arriving earlier than subadults. Our study is the first to comprehensively describe spatial variation in timing of breeding of both Atlantic and Pacific populations of all three scoter species across North America. Our results increase our understanding of how current surveys enumerate scoters and will inform possible supplemental efforts to improve continental monitoring of scoter populations.

Wildlife Biology↗

USGS2023

Dispersal of juvenile Barrow’s goldeneyes (Bucephala islandica) mirrors that of breeding adults

Barrow’s goldeneyes across western North America have been shown to have a high degree of subpopulation independence using several data types. However, evidence for structured populations based on mitochondrial DNA, band recoveries, and tracking of adults is discordant with evidence from autosomal DNA. We used satellite tracking data from both juveniles and adults marked on natal and breeding grounds, respectively, in British Columbia, Canada to evaluate the hypothesis that male-biased juvenile dispersal maintains genetic panmixia of Pacific Barrow’s goldeneyes otherwise structured by migratory movements and high winter and breeding site fidelity of adults. We found that juvenile males traveled to overwintering sites located within the range of the overwintering sites of juvenile females, adult males, and adult females. Juvenile males migrated at the same time, travelled the same distance when moving between natal and overwintering sites, and had the same winter dispersion as juvenile females. Although juveniles did not travel with attendant females, all juveniles overwintered within the wintering range of adults. We tracked some juveniles into the following spring/summer and even second winter. Prospecting juveniles of both sexes travelled from their wintering grounds to potential breeding sites in the proximity of Riske Creek and within the bounds of the breeding locations used by adults. Juveniles tracked for more than a year also showed relatively high winter site fidelity. Because Barrow’s goldeneyes pair on wintering grounds, our tracking data are not consistent with the hypothesis that male-biased juvenile dispersal explains the genetic structure in the mitochondrial DNA and panmixia in the autosomal DNA of Barrow’s goldeneye. We suggest that uncommon or episodic dispersal of males might be enough to homogenize autosomal DNA but is unlikely to influence demographic population structure relevant to contemporary population management.

British Columbia, Washington↗

USGS2023

Flood damage costs beyond buildings—A Lake Champlain case study

Introduction Floods account for more than 75 percent of Federal disaster declarations and lead other natural disasters in economic costs. Early-warning systems have lowered flood-related fatalities, but costs continue to rise as flood-prone areas continue to be urbanized (U.S. Geological Survey, 2006). A Lake Champlain case study shows that at moderate flood heights, the economic costs of non-structural damages or losses—such as temporary lodging, residential debris removal, commercial revenue losses, and road repair—can be greater than economic damages to buildings. For unprecedented flood heights, non-structural damages can still total more than 10 percent of structural damage costs.

New York, Vermont↗

USGS2023

Spatially and temporally variable production pathways support the Lake Erie central basin food web

In large freshwater systems, the dominant production pathways supporting food webs are often spatiotemporally variable. We used stable isotope analysis and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) models to investigate spatial and interannual variation in the dominant production pathways supporting fish consumers within the central basin of Lake Erie. We examined C and N stable isotope ratios of zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, and four species of fish common to nearshore areas of the central basin (yellow perch, Perca flavescens ; white perch, Morone americana ; rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax ; and round goby, Neogobius melanostomus ) using tissue samples collected in 2017 and 2019. δ 13 C values varied by location consistent with expected baseline differences in nutrient loading ( 13 C was more enriched in the southern region) in two of six ANCOVA models. Furthermore, δ 15 N values varied with individual fish size and by location in a manner consistent with spatial patterns of nutrient loading from surrounding agricultural landscapes ( 15 N was more enriched in the northern region) and a longitudinal gradient of eutrophication, decreasing from west to east. These patterns were not exhibited by all species and did not necessarily persist across years, suggesting that additional factors (e.g., regional diet differences, river plume dynamics) also contributed to observed δ 13 C and δ 15 N variation. We suggest that spatiotemporal variation of stable isotope ratios should be accounted for in studies of trophic basis of production and food web structure in Lake Erie.

central Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Using multiple metal mixture models to predict toxicity of riverine sediment porewater to the benthic life stage of juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus)

Five metal mixture dose–response models were used to predict the toxicity of porewater to young sturgeon at areas of interest in the Upper Columbia River (WA, USA/BC, Canada) and to evaluate these models as tools for risk assessments. Dose components of metal mixture models included exposure to free metal ion activities or metal accumulation by biotic ligands or humic acid, and links of dose to response used logistic equations, independent joint action equations, or additive toxicity functions. Laboratory bioassay studies of single metal exposures to juvenile sturgeon, porewater collected in situ in the fast-flowing Upper Columbia River, and metal mixture models were used to evaluate toxicity. The five metal mixture models were very similar in their predictions of adverse response of juvenile sturgeon and in identifying copper (Cu) as the metal responsible for the most toxic conditions. Although the modes of toxic action and the 20% effective concentration values were different among the dose models, predictions of adverse response were consistent among models because all doses were tied to the same biological responses. All models indicated that 56% ± 5% of 122 porewater samples were predicted to have <20% adverse response, 25% ± 5% of samples were predicted to have 20% to 80% adverse response, and 20% ± 4% were predicted to have >80% adverse response in juvenile sturgeon. The approach of combining bioassay toxicity data, compositions of field porewater, and metal mixture models to predict lack of growth and survival of aquatic organisms due to metal toxicity is an important tool that can be integrated with other information (e.g., survey studies of organism populations, life cycle and behavior characteristics, sediment geochemistry, and food sources) to assess risks to aquatic organisms in metal-enriched ecosystems. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;00:1–12. Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry↗

USGS2023

Seasonal spatial ecology of Lake Trout in Lake Erie

Objective Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush are native coldwater apex predators that play an important role in maintaining ecosystem functionality and diversity in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Following population collapses, rehabilitation efforts were widely initiated in the Great Lakes to reestablish self‐sustaining Lake Trout populations. Lake Erie may pose a challenge to these rehabilitation efforts due to limited availability of appropriate oxythermal habitat. Our goal was to investigate seasonal habitat use of adult Lake Trout in Lake Erie to inform management and rehabilitation efforts. Methods We used acoustic telemetry in Lake Erie, which was equipepd with a lake‐wide acoustic receiver grid, to quantify Lake Trout seasonal region occupancy, dispersal distances, bottom depth occupancy, space use extent, and space use overlap. Result We found that 32% of fish tagged in the eastern basin and all fish from the western basin dispersed more than 100 km from their tagging location, which represents a greater proportion of the population moving long distances than what has been previously documented in the Great Lakes. During stratification, Lake Trout were detected almost exclusively in the offshore eastern basin in areas where water depth exceeded 25 m. During nonstratified seasons, fish used other regions of the lake, occupying areas of highly variable depths. During fall, most fish tagged in the eastern basin occupied habitat along the southern shore of the eastern basin. Fish tagged in the western basin returned to this region in the fall of subsequent years despite occupying the offshore eastern basin during stratification and having depth occupancy, home range size, and overlap similar to that of eastern basin‐tagged fish. Fish size was positively correlated with receiver depth during winter and spring, and with home range overlap during spring and summer. Conclusion The results of this study can begin to inform management decisions regarding stocking locations, harvest regulations, and habitat restoration to facilitate the continued rehabilitation of this important native species.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2023

Geology and undiscovered resource assessment of the potash-bearing, Middle Devonian (Givetian), Prairie Evaporite, Elk Point Basin, Canada and United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed undiscovered potash resources in the Elk Point Basin in Canada and the United States as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The Elk Point Basin is a large, Middle Devonian (Givetian) intracratonic evaporite basin covering approximately 1,200,000 square kilometers (km 2 ) and filled mainly with marine evaporite and minor clastic sedimentary rocks that contain stratabound potash-bearing salt. The potash-bearing salt is concentrated in four stratigraphic members (Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy) in the upper 100 meters (m) of the Prairie Evaporite and are separated by beds of halite (NaCl) that contain lesser—presently non-economic—amounts of sylvite (KCl) and carnallite (KMgCl 3 ·6H 2 O). The principal ore-bearing salt contains mainly sylvite. Four permissive tracts were defined that permit the presence of undiscovered stratabound potash (both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salt) using geological criteria. Permissive tracts are defined by the spatial extent of each stratigraphic member that is at least 1 m thick, are less than 3 kilometers (km) from the surface, contain at least 4 percent equivalent potassium oxide (K 2 O), and contain the currently known resources. The permissive tracts include known potash deposits and potash occurrences as wells or mines not in production and show where undiscovered potash resources may be present. Well data are used to define the extent, thickness, average K 2 O equivalent grades, and volumes of each member. Data were supplied by the Saskatchewan Geological Survey or were obtained from published National Instrument (NI) 43-101 technical reports and other published reports, such as annual 10-K reports or news releases. The Elk Point Basin is the world’s largest source of potash, producing 23.0 million metric tons (Mt) of potassium chloride (KCl) (the equivalent of about 14.4 Mt of K 2 O) in 2018. In terms of global importance, the Elk Point Basin may contain 40 to greater than 50 percent of the world’s potash resources. Since 1962, potash companies have mined more than 1.5 trillion metric tons of ore containing 605 Mt of KCl (the equivalent of about 380 Mt of K 2 O). The total value of the ore produced through 2018 is on the order of $70 trillion (CAD). Potash is currently produced from eight conventional and three underground solution mines at depths ranging from 900 m to nearly 1,800 m. Estimates of the amount of potash in the Elk Point Basin vary considerably and the data and methods used in those estimations are not well documented. Known potash resources are approximately 99 billion metric tons (Bt) of ore containing 22 Bt of K 2 O equivalent. As a result of new mine openings and increased production capacity at existing mines, the total production capacity of mines in the Elk Point Basin has increased significantly (to about 32.8 Mt of KCl or 22.8 Mt of K 2 O equivalent per year). Additional production capacity of about 31 Mt of KCl (or 17 Mt of K 2 O equivalent) per year could be realized over the next decade if several current (as of 2019) exploration and development projects reach production status. Stratabound potash-bearing salt of the Prairie Evaporite presently underlies a total area of about 188,000 km 2 and has a total volume of about 2,690 cubic kilometers (km 3 ). Post-depositional solution processes considerably modified the mineralogy and presence of the potash-bearing salt. These changes had a profound effect on the volume and grade of potash resources that remained in the Prairie Evaporite and are a major consideration of exploration and mining operations as well as in this assessment of undiscovered potash resources. This USGS assessment includes the locations and possible amounts of undiscovered potash resources in the Prairie Evaporite. Volumes for each stratigraphic member were computed using member thicknesses and areal extent modified by actual, estimated geologic loss owing to salt dissolution and extraction ratios, as well as estimated distribution of carnallite and sylvite. Both sylvite- and carnallite-bearing salts were assessed for potash in this study. The assessment uses modern published grade and tonnage data. The amount of undiscovered potash is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulations to combine volume estimates of the potash-bearing members with probability distributions for average grade and bulk density. Mean potash grades (expressed as percentage of K 2 O equivalent) calculated using drill core analyses are 17.76 for the Patience Lake Member, 15.98 for the Belle Plaine Member, 10.66 for the White Bear Member, and 15.30 for the Esterhazy Member. Geologic losses reported as extraction ratios during mining may range from 27.5 to 41.6 percent and are dependent on mining method and local geologic conditions. The assessment determined that mean estimated undiscovered K 2 O equivalent resources for the Patience Lake, Belle Plaine, White Bear, and Esterhazy Members are 340, 220, 34, and 190 Bt, respectively, and estimated a total mean of 790 Bt for the entire Prairie Evaporite above a depth of 3 km. The total mineralized rock tonnage is estimated to be about 5,000 Bt. Most of the assessed potash is located within Saskatchewan with lesser amounts in Alberta and Manitoba as well as Montana and North Dakota within the United States. Although carnallite is mined for potash in Europe, it has historically been avoided in mining plans for potash-producing companies in Saskatchewan because of mining, processing, and grade considerations. Carnallite-rich salt is locally present in concentrations and volumes that could be a significant resource of magnesium chloride (MgCl 2 ) obtained as a byproduct of processing the carnallite for potash. Previously estimated reserves (not NI 43-101 compliant) of mineralized material from 1955 to 2019 are 695 Mt at 22.1 percent MgCl 2 . The total amount of K 2 O equivalent as carnallite was estimated during this USGS assessment to be about 120 Bt (or 180 Bt KCl). With uncertainties in defining the areal extent of carnallite in each of the potash-bearing members, the amount of MgCl 2 as carnallite in the Elk Point Basin could be approximately 180 Bt.

Elk Point basin↗

USGS2023

Genetic population assignments of Atlantic sturgeon provided to National Marine Fisheries Service, 2022

Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus (Atlantic sturgeon) were once abundant and supported large-scale fisheries throughout much of the east coast of the United States. However, historic overharvest and habitat loss resulted in dramatic declines in abundance and eventual listing under the Endangered Species Act of the United States. As part of this listing, Atlantic sturgeon populations were divided into five distinct population segments (DPSs), with many management activities occurring at the level of the DPS. However, because subadult and adult Atlantic sturgeon can make large, coast-wide migrations and often mix extensively with individuals from other populations, individuals may be exposed to conservation threats away from their natal river or DPS, ultimately making it difficult to determine the appropriate spatial scale for management activities. To help address this uncertainty, the U.S. Geological Survey performed genetic assignment tests to determine the natal origin of 329 Atlantic sturgeon that were encountered as mortalities or taken during permitted activities in 2021. Overall, most individuals assigned to the Hudson River population, with additional major contributions from the James River Fall and Delaware River populations. However, a sizeable proportion of individuals were assigned to more distantly located populations in the southeastern United States. These results highlight the prevalence of long-distance movements in Atlantic sturgeon and underscore that populations may be vulnerable to threats far from their natal rivers.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2023

A new genomic resource to enable standardized surveys of SNPs across the native range of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

Understanding how genetic diversity is distributed across spatiotemporal scales in species of conservation or management concern is critical for identifying large-scale mechanisms affecting local conservation status and implementing large-scale biodiversity monitoring programmes. However, cross-scale surveys of genetic diversity are often impractical within single studies, and combining datasets to increase spatiotemporal coverage is frequently impeded by using different sets of molecular markers. Recently developed molecular tools make surveys based on standardized single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panels more feasible than ever, but require existing genomic information. Here, we conduct the first survey of genome-wide SNPs across the native range of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-adapted species that has been the focus of considerable conservation and management effort across eastern North America. Our dataset can be leveraged to easily design SNP panels that allow datasets to be combined for large-scale analyses. We performed restriction site-associated DNA sequencing for wild brook trout from 82 locations spanning much of the native range and domestic brook trout from 24 hatchery strains used in stocking efforts. We identified over 24,000 SNPs distributed throughout the brook trout genome. We explored the ability of these SNPs to resolve relationships across spatial scales, including population structure and hatchery admixture. Our dataset captures a wide spectrum of genetic diversity in native brook trout, offering a valuable resource for developing SNP panels. We highlight potential applications of this resource with the goal of increasing the integration of genomic information into decision-making for brook trout and other species of conservation or management concern.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2023

Conservation decision support for Silver Chub habitat in Lake Erie

Objective Conservation and restoration of aquatic species is difficult, especially for rare species, because their habitats are typically disturbed, obscuring the natural ability of the habitat to support each species. The Lake Erie population of Silver Chub Macrhybopsis storeriana struggles to sustain itself in a habitat disturbed by a wide spectrum of anthropogenic factors. Application of multiple model predictions can provide indications of conservation or restoration opportunities for this species. Methods A combination of models that predict the best potential for Lake Erie habitat to support Silver Chub and the effects of anthropogenic disturbances on that population were used to identify habitat conditions throughout the western aquatic lake unit. Result As many as 76 combinations of best habitat potential and disturbance conditions were present, but the best opportunities occurred in <12% of the study area. Some of the best protection opportunities were farthest offshore, and extensive areas of least disturbed habitat for restoration were near the southern and western shores. The location-specific model predictions provide fine-scale decision support for Silver Chub habitat protection or restoration. Conclusion The approach applied here may help identify compatibilities among species to achieve the desirable fish community for Lake Erie and reconcile conflicting management actions.

Michigan, Ohio, Ontario↗

USGS2023

Bighorn sheep associations: Understanding tradeoffs of sociality and implications for disease transmission

Sociality directly influences mating success, survival rates, and disease, but ultimately likely evolved for its fitness benefits in a challenging environment. The tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of sociality can operate at multiple scales, resulting in different interpretations of animal behavior. We investigated the influence of intrinsic ( e.g. , relatedness, age) and extrinsic factors ( e.g. , land cover type, season) on direct contact (simultaneous GPS locations ≤ 25 m) rates of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) at multiple scales near the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park. During 2002–2012, male and female bighorn were equipped with GPS collars. Indirect contact (GPS locations ≤ 25 m regardless of time) networks identified two major breaks whereas direct contact networks identified an additional barrier in the population, all of which corresponded with prior disease exposure metrics. More direct contacts occurred between same-sex dyads than female-male dyads and between bighorn groups with overlapping summer home ranges. Direct contacts occurred most often during the winter-spring season when bighorn traveled at low speeds and when an adequate number of bighorn were collared in the area. Direct contact probabilities for all dyad types were inversely related to habitat quality, and differences in contact probability were driven by variables related to survival such as terrain ruggedness, distance to escape terrain, and canopy cover. We provide evidence that probabilities of association are higher when there is greater predation risk and that contact analysis provides valuable information for understanding fitness tradeoffs of sociality and disease transmission potential.

Alberta, British Columbia, Montana↗