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Research about Canada, Mexico, United States

Source-linked reports with geographic coverage including Canada, Mexico, United States.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

A range-wide summary of western grebe and Clark’s grebe breeding lakes across North America

Western grebes ( Aechmophorus occidentalis ) and Clark’s grebes ( Aechmophorus clarkii ) are iconic waterbirds of North America that breed in colonies on inland lakes. Both species are patchily distributed and not surveyed well by the North American Breeding Bird Survey and, hence, we know relatively little about their population trends or the lakes that support the largest colonies. Knowing the distribution of western and Clark’s grebe breeding populations across their range is a critical first step to better monitor and manage these two waterbirds. We compiled published and unpublished data summarizing the status of current and historical western and Clark’s grebe breeding colonies on lakes across North America. We summarized count numbers for adults, nests, and chicks during the breeding season, including date of the most recent count from local survey efforts. We also summarized the most common threats to these birds at their breeding colonies. Sixty-seven percent of the Aechmophorus grebes during the breeding season were in 5% of the 770 breeding lakes identified range-wide, and 73% of the 770 breeding lakes supported < 100 breeding adults. The most common threats at breeding lakes were egg predation, wind and wave impact on nests, changes in populations of forage fish, anthropogenic disturbances, rapid fluctuation of water levels at breeding colonies, and decrease in nesting habitat availability. Our range-wide summary of the locations and sizes of breeding colonies and the presumed threats at these colonies provide a foundation for thorough range-wide survey efforts and conservation prioritizations for western and Clark’s grebes in North America.

North America↗

How to determine an earthquake rate budget? A comparison of geodetic, geologic, and seismologic moment rates

How much tectonic geodetic strain is accommodated as earthquakes? Can estimates of tectonic geodetic strain be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses? Understanding the balance of moment accumulation (i.e., geodetic moment) and accommodation (i.e., geologic and seismologic moment) is a necessary step toward leveraging corrected geodetic strain rates to quantify earthquake budgets. We investigate these questions using updated geodetic, geologic, and seismologic datasets compiled for the western United States (WUS) portion of the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23‐WUS) to provide new views of moment rates across the WUS. We compare moment rates using a floating footprint approach across the extent of the NSHM23‐WUS fault sections database. We make these comparisons using “moment rate deviation (MRD),” which is defined as a surplus or deficit of geodetic moment rate relative to the sum of geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that, in general, higher strain rate areas of the WUS (i.e., plate boundary) have smaller values of MRD, meaning that geodetic moment rates approximate the earthquake record preserved by geologic and seismologic moment rates well. In contrast, the lower strain rate, eastern portions of our analysis domain (i.e., intraplate) have very high values of MRD, with geodetic moment rates exceeding measured geologic and seismologic moment rates. We find that geodetic moment rates appear to be representative of the earthquake budget in relatively well‐characterized, interplate regions, and geodetic estimates of off‐fault deformation could be considered in seismic hazard analyses where MRD is minimized.

western United States↗

USGS Geochron Database

Introduction Geochronology helps us understand Earth’s history by determining when important events, like volcanic eruptions, the rise of mountains, the formation of mineral resources, and changes in the landscape, happened. Geochronological data directly support geologic mapping and can inform decisions about geologic hazard mitigation, natural resource management, and infrastructure resilience. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geochron database provides access to more than 300,000 published, publicly available age measurements from more than 40,000 geological samples. This database is the result of a collaborative effort with State geological surveys and geoscientists from across the globe. The USGS Geochron database is the most comprehensive collection of geochronological data available for the United States. Users can view data through an interactive map explorer, download datasets, and integrate data into geospatial software or other analysis tools.

Fact Sheet↗

Leveraging socioeconomic flows to inform shared, migratory species conservation

Migratory species, and the many cultural and economic values they provide, are declining worldwide. Previous research has quantified ecosystem service flows for single migratory species to provide valuable information on the dynamics of socio-ecological systems to inform cross-jurisdictional management. There are efficiencies in implementation to be gained from considering the dynamics of multiple species (e.g., ecological guilds) simultaneously. As proof of concept, this paper demonstrates how ecosystem service flows can be aggregated spatially for a group of three North American migratory species. We further present a flexible approach to estimating how conservation funding can be allocated equitably between regions of the migratory range. Results show that most benefits from these three migratory species are supported locally by habitat within each region, but net interregional flows exist, including a $33.1M annual subsidy from Mexico to the U.S. and Canada. Results also suggest that directing 18% of net conservation funding raised for these species in the U.S. and Canada toward conservation projects in Mexico would redress inequities in shared management responsibility. Considering the values provided by multiple species simultaneously has the potential to broaden coalitions and expedite negotiation of international agreements by providing a better shared understanding of the benefits to each party.

North America↗

Status assessment of peregrine falcons in North America using integrated population models

Species status assessments require an understanding of underlying population dynamics and important drivers of species demography. Large-scale assessments can be difficult due to challenges collating data obtained through different methods and different sources at multiple scales. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework to combine multiple data sources and jointly estimate population parameters over a large spatiotemporal scale. We developed separate IPMs to estimate abundance and demographic rates for a northern (NMP) and southern (SMP) management population of peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) in North America from 2008 through 2019 (SMP) and 2020 (NMP). An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) starting in 2021 led us to extend our modeling effort to assess its impact on these management populations by updating both IPMs using index data of population size through 2024 in a predictive framework. Survival probabilities differed drastically between first-year and after-first-year individuals in both management populations. After-first-year survival was nearly identical between the NMP and SMP, but first-year survival was lower in the SMP. Mean productivity was significantly lower in the NMP compared to the SMP, whereas the probability of breeding was similar in both management populations. Estimated total abundance for the NMP was substantially larger than the SMP, representing most of the North American peregrine population. Population growth was positive for both management populations, albeit at a slower rate for the NMP. The NMP declined from 2017 to 2018 coinciding with a drop in 2018 estimated productivity. When we extended the IPMs with updated count data through 2024, the NMP slightly declined but estimated abundance remained above levels at the start of the time series analyzed. The SMP grew at a similar rate to that predicted during the period informed by demographic data. We did not detect a continental-scale change in population size or trajectory in either management population associated with the arrival of HPAI in 2021. Further monitoring can support determination of whether the declines in the NMP were temporary, can enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and can be used to guide the conservation and management of the peregrine falcon population in North America.

North America↗

Trait-based selection of seeds ingested and dispersed by North American waterfowl

There are few studies on the extent to which waterfowl select plant food compared with what is available in wetland ecosystems. We used a new dataset on the presence of seeds in the alimentary canal or feces to identify flowering plant species whose seeds are ingested by North American ducks or geese. These data are a proxy for dispersal interactions because an important fraction of ingested seeds survives gut passage and is dispersed by endozoochory. We compared the plant traits of species whose seeds were ingested with those of species on the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Wetland Plants List (NWPL). Using a global dataset on plant form and function and chi-squared tests, we compared four categorical traits (moisture requirements, growth form, plant height, and seed mass) between species whose seeds are ingested by North American ducks and geese with the NWPL. Our analyses identified significant differences between the trait distributions of plants whose seeds were ingested by waterfowl guilds and those of the NWPL. Geese and ducks (except whistling ducks) ingested more aquatic and semiaquatic plant species than expected from the NWPL. All guilds except sea ducks ingested more herbaceous graminoids and fewer shrubs or trees than expected. Diving ducks interacted with fewer of the taller plants (>5 m) than expected, but otherwise plant height distributions did not differ from those expected. All waterfowl guilds ingested more species of intermediate seed size (1–10 mg) and fewer species of the smallest (<0.1 mg) or largest (>100 mg) size categories than expected. These results help to explain the role of the long-distance dispersal of seeds by migratory waterfowl in plant biogeography and how plant distributions are likely to respond to global change.

North America↗

Introgression, phylogeography, and genomic species cohesion in the eastern North American white oak syngameon

Hybridization and interspecific gene flow play a substantial role in the evolution of plant taxa. The eastern North American white oak syngameon, a group of approximately 15 ecologically, morphologically and genomically distinguishable species, has long been recognised as a model system for studying introgressive hybridization in temperate trees. However, the prevalence, genomic context and environmental correlates of introgression in this system remain largely unknown. To assess introgression in the eastern North American white oak syngameon and population structure within the widespread Quercus macrocarpa , we conducted a rangewide survey of Q. macrocarpa and four sympatric eastern North American white oak species. Using a Hyb-Seq approach, we assembled a dataset of 3412 thinned single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 445 enriched target loci including 62 genes putatively associated with various ecological functions, as well as associated intronic regions and some off-target intergenic regions (not associated with the exons). Admixture analysis and hybrid class inference demonstrated species coherence despite hybridization and introgressive gene flow (due to backcrossing of F1s to one or both parents). Additionally, we recovered a genetic structure within Q. macrocarpa associated with latitude. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) indicate that proximity to range edge predicts interspecific admixture, but rates of genetic differentiation do not appear to vary between putative functional gene classes. Our study suggests that gene flow between eastern North American white oak species may not be as rampant as previously assumed and that hybridization is most strongly predicted by proximity to a species' range margin.

Molecular Ecology↗

RIce-Net: Integrating ground-based cameras and machine learning for automated river ice detection

River ice plays a critical role in controlling streamflow in cold regions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) qualifies affected water-level measurements and inferred streamflow by ice conditions at a date later than the day of the actual measurements. This study introduces a novel computer vision-based framework, River Ice-Network (RIce-Net), that uses the USGS nationwide network of ground-based cameras whose images are published through the National Imagery Management System (NIMS). RIce-Net consists of a binary classifier to identify ice-affected images that are segmented to calculate the fraction of ice coverage, which is used to automatically generate a near real-time ice flag. RIce-Net was trained using images from selected NIMS stations collected in 2023 and tested using images collected in 2024. Also, the framework’s scalability and transferability were tested over another station that was not included in the training process. RIce-Net ice flags are well-aligned with those reported by USGS.

Environmental Engineering & Software↗

Shortening migration by 4500 km does not affect nesting phenology or increase nest success for black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) breeding in Arctic and subarctic Alaska

Background Since the 1980s, Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans , hereafter brant) have shifted their winter distribution northward from Mexico to Alaska (approximately 4500 km) with changes in climate. Alongside this shift, the primary breeding population of brant has declined. To understand the population-level implications of the changing migration strategy of brant, it is important to connect movement and demographic data. Our objectives were to calculate migratory connectivity, a measure of spatial and temporal overlap during the non-breeding period, for Arctic and subarctic breeding populations of brant, and to determine if variation in migration strategies affected nesting phenology and nest survival. Methods We derived a migratory network using light-level geolocator migration tracks from an Arctic site (Colville River Delta) and a subarctic site (Tutakoke River) in Alaska. Using this network, we quantified the migratory connectivity of the two populations during the winter. We also compared nest success rates among brant that used different combinations of winter sites and breeding sites. Results The two breeding populations were well mixed during the winter, as indicated by a migratory connectivity score close to 0 (− 0.06) at the primary wintering sites of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska (n = 11 brant) and Baja California, Mexico (n = 48). However, Arctic birds were more likely to migrate the shorter distance to Izembek (transition probability = 0.24) compared to subarctic birds (transition probability = 0.09). Nest survival for both breeding populations was relatively high (0.88–0.92), and we did not detect an effect of wintering site on nest success the following year. Conclusions Nest survival of brant did not differ among brant that used wintering sites despite a 4500 km difference in migration distances. Our results also suggested that the growing Arctic breeding population is unlikely to compensate for declines in the larger breeding population of brant in the subarctic. However, this study took place in 2011–2014 and wintering at Izembek Lagoon may have greater implications for reproductive success under future climate conditions.

Movement Ecology↗

Predicting invasiveness of freshwater fishes imported into North America: Regional differences in models and outcomes

Biological invasions driven by international trade heighten the urgency for development of invasion risk models, as the traits and parameters that consistently predict successful invasion remain unresolved. For four regions of North America that include parts of the United States and Canada (Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins, Lower Colorado River Basin, Great Lakes Region, Mid-Atlantic Region), we construct and compare classification tree models to reveal robust predictors for the establishment and ecological impact stages of freshwater fish invasion. We subsequently apply the models to identify invasive fish species in trade and conduct pathway analyses to determine which trades (aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food, water garden) and source continents pose the greatest risk to each region. Model results differed by invasion stage and region. Across regions, establishment models shared climate-related predictors including climate match and temperature tolerance. Three of the four impact models contained prior establishment success. The greatest number of species (548) were predicted to establish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin while the fewest (5) were predicted to establish in the Mid-Atlantic. Forty species were predicted to establish in multiple regions, five of which were also predicted to have high impact. The aquarium trade and Asia supplied the most species predicted to establish. Taken together, the results highlight region-specific models, indicating no universal model predicts invasion. Climate-related and prior establishment variables were most useful to risk assessments. The regional models, and identified high-risk pathways and potential invaders, could be applied to prevent future fish invasions in North America.

Laurentian Great Lakes Region, Lower Colorado Rive↗

Blue carbon stocks along the Pacific Coast of North America are mainly driven by local rather than regional factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

Pacific Coast of North America↗

Delineating ecologically-distinct groups for annual cycle management of a declining shorebird

1. Patterns of migratory connectivity are increasingly used to understand and manage threats throughout the annual cycle of migratory species. Strong migratory connectivity refers to when individuals from different populations remain spatially separated across the annual cycle, which may expose populations to unique sets of threats and conditions that cause differential population trends. However, the populations or groups used for species’ management are often defined a priori based on expert knowledge and/or management units, which may mask important population segregation and obscure differential population trends and their drivers. 2. We compared three approaches to defining management groups of a declining shorebird, the long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), for annual cycle management: by expert-opinion, according to management flyways, and with unsupervised clustering of satellite tracking data that maximizes the strength of migratory connectivity. 3. Despite the curlews having a continuous breeding range and a pattern of parallel migration, all three approaches identified groups with different population trends, movement behaviours and habitat selection across the annual cycle, suggesting these are meaningful ecological groups. The expert and clustering approaches resulted in similar group structure, strong estimates of migratory connectivity (measured as MC = 0.64 across seasons), movement behaviour and habitat selection; however, the expert approach identified an additional divide between the easternmost grouping, which revealed strongly negative population trends in the group occupying the Chihuahuan desert during the stationary nonbreeding season. In contrast, the flyway delineation resulted in weaker estimates of migratory connectivity, marginal differences in population trends and less between-group differences in movement behaviour and habitat selection. 4. Synthesis and applications . Using measurements of migratory connectivity in concert with expert opinion can define ecologically distinct groups for wildlife management that differ in the environmental conditions they experience across seasons of the annual cycle, which is a key component for understanding and reversing declines of migratory species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Foundational science in flight—USGS bird programs support conservation, culture, and a thriving U.S. economy

Birds are vital to our economy, ecosystems, and cultural heritage. Investing in bird conservation benefits communities, businesses, and working lands while reinforcing our nation’s legacy of stewardship and biodiversity. By valuing birds, we ensure a richer, healthier, and more vibrant future for all Americans. The USGS leads two national bird monitoring programs Thriving bird populations contribute over $ 100 billion in related purchases to the U.S. economy annually, helping to support 1.4 million jobs and $ 90 billion in labor-related income. Across our nation, Federal and State wildlife agencies, Flyway Councils, non-governmental organizations, and more consider data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to be critical to meeting their mandates to set healthy harvest levels and in identifying species of conservation need. However, without stable and sufficient resources for the BBL and BBS, the capacity to monitor and address the rapidly evolving needs of migratory bird populations is at risk, jeopardizing the foundation of collaborative conservation efforts across North America.

Fact Sheet↗

How to model a new invader? US-invaded range models outperform global or combined range models after 100 occurrences

Invasive species are an economic and ecological burden, and efforts to limit their impact are greatly improved with reliable maps based on species distribution models (SDMs). However, the potential distribution of new invaders is difficult to anticipate because they are still spreading with few observations in their invaded habitat. Therefore, an accepted practice in predicting the distribution of invasive species has been to incorporate habitat information from its entire geographic distribution (invaded and native ranges) into SDMs. Yet, this approach, due to niche shifts, niche expansions, and data deficiencies, commonly misrepresents where an invasive species is found in its new range. Here, we use time series records (invasion stages) from 13 invasive plant species in North America to explore the tension between modeling invasive species using global range and invaded range data and to determine if there is a “tipping point” at which one SDM strategy performs better than the other in predicting the ultimate distribution. At the earliest invasion stage, models developed using both invaded range and global occurrences on average performed better and had less variability across species than other model strategies at this stage. However, after as few as 100 observations of an invasive plant had been made, US-invaded range models, on average, outperformed global range models and models that combined occurrences. By building models with global and US-scale predictors, we show that higher performance of invaded range models was in part because of greater data quality at the invaded-range scale. Our work demonstrates that after relatively few observations of an invasive species in its invaded range, it is more accurate to model its potential distribution using only information from the invaded range while disregarding information from other regions. This work develops a robust and comprehensive approach to modeling novel distributions of newly observed invasive species.

North America↗

Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880)

Aim Increasing aridity has driven widespread synchronous fire occurrence in recent decades across North America. The lack of historical (pre-1880) fire records limits our ability to understand long-term continental fire-climate dynamics. The goal of this study is to use tree-ring reconstructions to determine the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns in historical climate and widespread fire occurrence in North American forests, and whether they are stable through time. This information will address a major knowledge gap required to inform projections of future fire. Location North American Forests. Time Period 1750–1880 CE. Major Taxa Studies Trees. Methods We applied regionalisation methods to tree-ring reconstructions of historical summer soil moisture and annual fire occurrence to independently identify broad- and fine-scale climate and fire regions based on common inter-annual variability. We then tested whether the regions were stable through time and for spatial correspondence between the climate and fire regions. Last, we used correlation analysis to quantify the strength of the fire-climate associations through time. Results We found that broad-scale historical patterns in climate and fire have strong spatial coherence. Although climate and fire regions vary over time, large core areas of the regions were stable. The association between climate and fire varied through time and was strongest in western North America, likely due to a combination of factors, such as the magnitude of drought frequency and severity, as well as varying use of fire by human communities. Main Conclusions The historical perspective gained through tree-ring reconstructions of climate and fire patterns and their association suggests that climate-driven synchrony of fire across large areas of the continent in recent decades is not unprecedented, will likely continue into the future, and may exhibit similar spatial patterns.

North America↗

Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse ecosystem type providing a wealth of ecosystem services across western North America. Managing PJ woodlands in the 21st century entails balancing multiple conservation objectives, and resource managers and policy-makers working to sustain PJ woodlands need spatially explicit information about current PJ woodland conditions and how they may be impacted in coming decades in the context of wildfire risk and changing climate. Here, we address knowledge gaps and provide information that improves the long-term value of conservation and restoration actions in PJ woodlands. To this end, we merged projections of future environmental suitability for nine PJ species with wildfire risk and locations of mature and old-growth (MOG) woodlands to assess spatial variation in PJ woodlands with differing threats and management opportunities. We identified potential climate refugia with enduring high community suitability and low burn probability (3 % of study area ) that may persist with relatively little management. We found promising locations of PJ-MOG forest type with high future suitability (12 % of areas) that could be prioritized for fire risk reduction to maintain high-value woodlands. Despite a 38 % mean community suitability decline under future climate conditions, some locations (7 % of areas) may act as climate refugia where future climate conditions can support current PJ woodland composition and structure. We conclude by demonstrating how this information can be integrated into a conceptual framework to help prioritize conservation and climate adaptation in PJ woodlands.

western North America↗

Sex differences in migration routes and non-breeding areas of a declining shorebird

Migratory birds face different threats and pressures across their annual cycle, and understanding the impact of these factors on individuals is critical to the conservation of avian populations. Individuals from the same breeding population may share the same non-breeding areas, and thus experience similar conditions, or they may travel to different habitats or regions during migration and the stationary non-breeding period. Marbled Godwits ( Limosa fedoa ) breeding in the Northern Great Plains, which have experienced steep population declines, are thought to spend the non-breeding period primarily on the Pacific Coast of the United States and Mexico. However, little is known about migratory routes, stopover sites, and non-breeding locations of specific breeding populations, nor whether individuals from the same breeding population remain together throughout the year. We deployed satellite transmitters on four mated pairs of godwits breeding in southern Alberta, Canada, with individuals tracked over a mean of 2.2 annual cycles (range 0.6–5.6, excluding one unit that stopped transmitting immediately following deployment). Counter to our expectations, females and males separated completely following breeding, with females traveling to non-breeding areas along the coast of California, United States, and males stopping over at Great Salt Lake, Utah, United States, and spending the non-breeding period in Baja California Sur, Mexico, a distance of ~1300 km from their mates. Despite spending nine months apart, individuals from this breeding population have previously been shown to have high mate fidelity. Interestingly, individuals mostly used protected areas during the non-breeding period, in contrast to the human-modified agricultural landscapes that make up the majority of their breeding grounds. Despite a small sample size, our results suggest a strong pattern of differential migration based on sex, with implications for the specific environmental conditions, and potentially threats, faced by female and male godwits across the annual cycle.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

Community synchrony in seed production is associated with trait similarity and climate across North America

Mast seeding, the synchronous and highly variable production of seed crops in perennial plants, is a population level phenomenon and has cascading effects in ecosystems. Mast seeding studies are typically conducted at the population/species level. Much less is known about synchrony in mast seeding between species because the necessary long-term data are rarely available. To investigate synchrony between species within communities, we used long-term data from seven forest communities in the US Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, ranging from tropical rainforest to taiga. We focus on cross-species synchrony and i) quantify synchrony in reproduction overall and within LTER sites, ii) test for relationships between synchrony with trait and phylogenetic similarity, and iii) investigate how climate conditions are related to levels of synchrony. Overall, synchrony in reproduction between woody plant species was greater than expected by chance, but also spanned a wide range of values between species. Based on 11 traits for 103 species (plus phylogenetic relatedness), cross-species synchrony in reproduction was driven primarily by trait similarity with phylogeny being largely unimportant, and synchrony was higher in sites with greater climatic water deficit. Synchronous masting within a community has consequences for understanding forest regeneration dynamics and consumer-resource interactions.

North America↗