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Faults & earthquakes

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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii↗

USGS1978

FRISK: computer program for seismic risk analysis using faults as earthquake sources

This computer program makes probabilistic seismic hazard calculations at sites affected by earthquakes occurring on faults which are defined by the user as a series of line segments. The length of rupture of the fault as a function of earthquake magnitude is accounted for, and ground motion estimates at the site are made using the magnitude of the earthquake and the closest distance from the site to the rupture zone. Uncertainty in the earthquake magnitude, in the rupture given magnitude, in the location of the rupture zone on the fault, in the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes, and in the ground motion at the site given the earthquake, its size, rupture length, and location, are accounted for explicitly. FRISK (Fault RISK) was written to take advantage of repeated calculations, so that seismic hazard analyses for several ground motion parameters (for instance, peak ground acceleration, velocity, and displacement), and for several sites, are most efficiently made with one execution of the program rather than with repeated executions. The program uses a step-truncated exponential distribution for earthquake magnitude, a lognormal distribution for rupture length given magnitude, a uniform distribution for rupture location on faults, and a lognormal distribution of site amplitude given magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the rupture zone to the site. The program has been structured so that other functions may easily be substituted if this is appropriate for a particular problem; for example a wide range of deterministic or probabilistic geophysical models for estimating ground motion may be incorporated, and the program will yield probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Late Holocene earthquake history of the Brigham City segment of the Wasatch fault zone at the Hansen Canyon, Kotter Canyon, and Pearsons Canyon trench sites, Box Elder County, Utah

Of the five central segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) having evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes, the Brigham City segment (BCS) has the longest elapsed time since its most recent surface-faulting event (~2.1 kyr) compared to its mean recurrence time between events (~1.3 kyr). Thus, the BCS has the highest time-dependent earthquake probability of the central WFZ. We excavated trenches at three sites––the Kotter Canyon and Hansen Canyon sites on the north-central BCS and Pearsons Canyon site on the southern BCS––to determine whether a surface-faulting earthquake younger than 2.1 ka occurred on the BCS. Paleoseismic data for Hansen Canyon and Kotter Canyon confirm that the youngest earthquake on the north-central BCS occurred before 2 ka, consistent with previous north-central BCS investigations at Bowden Canyon and Box Elder Canyon. At Hansen Canyon, the most recent earthquake is constrained to 2.1–4.2 ka and had 0.6–2.5 m of vertical displacement. At Kotter Canyon, we found evidence for two events at 2.5 ± 0.3 ka and 3.5 ± 0.3 ka, with an average displacement per event of 1.9–2.3 m. Paleoseismic data from Pearsons Canyon, on the previously unstudied southern BCS, indicate that a post-2 ka earthquake ruptured this part of the segment. The Pearsons Canyon earthquake occurred at 1.2 ± 0.04 ka and had 0.1–0.8 m of vertical displacement, consistent with our observation of continuous, youthful scarps on the southern 9 km of the BCS having 1–2 m of late Holocene(?) surface offset. The 1.2-ka earthquake on the southern BCS likely represents rupture across the Weber–Brigham City segment boundary from the penultimate Weber-segment earthquake at about 1.1 ka. The Pearsons Canyon data result in a revised length of the BCS that has not ruptured since 2 ka (with time-dependent probability implications), and provide compelling evidence of at least one segment-boundary failure and multi-segment rupture on the central WFZ. Our paleoseismic investigations of the BCS clarify the timing, displacement, and extent of late Holocene earthquakes on the segment, and importantly, confirm the long elapsed time since the most recent earthquake on most of the BCS.

Utah↗

USGS2009

San Andreas fault geometry at Desert Hot Springs, California, and its effects on earthquake hazards and groundwater

The Mission Creek and Banning faults are two of the principal strands of the San Andreas fault zone in the northern Coachella Valley of southern California. Structural characteristics of the faults affect both regional earthquake hazards and local groundwater resources. We use seismic, gravity, and geological data to characterize the San Andreas fault zone in the vicinity of Desert Hot Springs. Seismic images of the upper 500 m of the Mission Creek fault at Desert Hot Springs show multiple fault strands distributed over a 500 m wide zone, with concentrated faulting within a central 200 m wide area of the fault zone. High-velocity (up to 5000 m=sec) rocks on the northeast side of the fault are juxtaposed against a low-velocity (<2000 m=sec) basin on the southwest side within the upper few hundred meters. Near-surface strands of the Mission Creek fault dip steeply southwestward and northeastward and merge at depth to form a narrower, steeply southwestward-dipping or near-vertical (80?? to 90??) fault zone. The Banning fault, in contrast, dips northeastward (45?? to 70??) toward the Mission Creek fault, and the two faults likely merge into a single San Andreas fault zone at depth, indicating a transtensional fault system. Mainshock hypocenters for two of the historically largest (M >6.0) earthquakes in the area (in 1948 and 1986) occurred at or near the depths (~10 to 12 km) of the merged (San Andreas) fault. Large-magnitude earthquakes that nucleate at or below the merged fault will likely generate strong shaking from guided waves along both fault zones and from amplified seismic waves in the low-velocity basin between the two fault zones. The Mission Creek fault zone is a groundwater barrier with the top of the water table varying by 60 m in depth and the aquifer varying by about 50 m in thickness across a 200 m wide zone of concentrated faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2006

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2019

The effect of stress changes on time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the central Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

Static and quasi-static Coulomb stress changes produced by large earthquakes can modify the probability of occurrence of subsequent events on neighboring faults. This approach is based on physical (Coulomb stress changes) and statistical (probability calculations) models, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of data available in the study region. Here, we focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone (WFZ), a well-studied active normal fault system having abundant geologic and paleoseismological data. Paleoseismological trench investigations of the WFZ indicate that at least 24 large, surface-faulting earthquakes have ruptured the fault’s five central, 35–59-km long segments since ~7 ka. Our goal is to determine if the stress changes due to the youngest paleoevents have significantly modified the present-day probability of occurrence of large earthquakes on each of the segments. For each segment, we modeled the cumulative (coseismic + postseismic) Coulomb stress changes (∆CFScum) due to earthquakes younger than the most recent event on the segment in question and applied the resulting values to the time-dependent probability calculations. Results from the Coulomb stress modeling suggest that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments have accumulated ∆CFScum larger than 10 bars, whereas the Weber segment has experienced a stress decrease of 5 bars, in the scenario of recent rupture of the Great Salt Lake fault to the west. Probability calculations predict high probability of occurrence for the Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, due to their long elapsed times (>1-2 ka) when compared to the Weber, Provo, and Nephi segments (< 1 ka). The range of calculated coefficients of variation (CV) has a large influence on the final probabilities, mostly in the case of the Brigham City segment. Finally, when the Coulomb stress and the probability models are combined, our results indicate that the ∆CFScum resulting from earthquakes postdating the youngest events on each of the five segments significantly affects the probability calculations for three of the segments: Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo. The probability of occurrence of a large earthquake in the next 50 years on these three segments may therefore be underestimated if a time-independent approach, or a time-dependent approach that does not consider ∆CFS, is adopted.

Utah↗

USGS2009

A 3000-year record of ground-rupturing earthquakes along the central North Anatolian fault near Lake Ladik, Turkey

The North Anatolian fault (NAF) is a ???1500 km long, arcuate, dextral strike-slip fault zone in northern Turkey that extends from the Karliova triple junction to the Aegean Sea. East of Bolu, the fault zone exhibits evidence of a sequence of large (M w >7) earthquakes that occurred during the twentieth century that displayed a migrating earthquake sequence from east to west. Prolonged human occupation in this region provides an extensive, but not exhaustive, historical record of large earthquakes prior to the twentieth century that covers much of the last 2000 yr. In this study, we extend our knowledge of rupture events in the region by evaluating the stratigraphy and chronology of sediments exposed in a paleoseismic trench across a splay of the NAF at Destek, ???6:5 km east of Lake Ladik (40.868?? N, 36.121?? E). The trenched fault strand forms an uphill-facing scarp and associated sediment trap below a small catchment area. The trench exposed a narrow fault zone that has juxtaposed a sequence of weakly defined paleosols interbedded with colluvium against highly fractured bedrock. We mapped magnetic susceptibility variations on the trench walls and found evidence for multiple visually unrecognized colluvial wedges. This technique was also used to constrain a predominantly dip-slip style of displacement on this fault splay. Sediments exposed in the trench were dated using both charcoal and terrestrial gastropod shells to constrain the timing of the earthquake events. While the gastropod shells consistently yielded 14 C ages that were too old (by ???900 yr), we obtained highly reliable 14 C ages from the charcoal by dating multiple components of the sample material. Our radiocarbon chronology constrains the timing of seven large earthquakes over the past 3000 yr prior to the 1943 Tosya earthquake, including event ages of (2?? error): A.D. 1437-1788, A.D. 1034-1321, A.D. 549-719, A.D. 17-585 (1-3 events), 35 B.C.-A.D. 28, 700-392 B.C., 912-596 B.C. Our results indicate an average interevent time of 385 166?? yr (1??).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2004

Precarious rock and overturned transformer evidence for ground shaking in the Ms 7.7 Kern County earthquake: An analog for disastrous shaking from a major thrust fault in the Los Angeles basin

Precariously balanced rocks and overturned transformers in the vicinity of the White Wolf fault provide constraints on ground motion during the 1952 Ms 7.7 Kern County earthquake, a possible analog for an anticipated large earthquake in the Los Angeles basin (Shaw et al., 2002; Dolan et al., 2003). On the northeast part of the fault preliminary estimates of ground motion on the footwall give peak accelerations considerably lower than predicted by standard regression curves. On the other hand, on the hanging-wall, there is evidence of intense ground shattering and lack of precarious rocks, consistent with the intense hanging-wall accelerations suggested by foam-rubber modeling, numerical modeling, and observations from previous thrust fault earthquakes. There is clear evidence of the effects of rupture directivity in ground motions on the hanging-wall side of the fault (from both precarious rocks and numerical simulations). On the southwest part of the fault, which is covered by sediments, the thrust fault did not reach the surface ("blind" thrust). Overturned and damaged transformers indicate significant transfer of energy from the hanging wall to the footwall, an effect that may not be as effective when the rupture reaches the surface (is not "blind"). Transformers near the up-dip projection of the fault tip have been damaged or overturned on both the hanging-wall and footwall sides of the fault. The transfer of energy is confirmed in a numerical lattice model and could play an important role in a similar situation in Los Angeles. We suggest that the results of this study can provide important information for estimating the effects of a large thrust fault rupture in the Los Angeles basin, specially given the fact that there is so little instrumental data from large thrust fault earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2006

Seismic evidence for rock damage and healing on the San Andreas fault associated with the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake

We deployed a dense linear array of 45 seismometers across and along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield a week after the M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake on 28 September 2004 to record fault-zone seismic waves generated by aftershocks and explosions. Seismic stations and explosions were co-sited with our previous experiment conducted in 2002. The data from repeated shots detonated in the fall of 2002 and 3 months after the 2004 M 6.0 mainshock show ???1.0%-1.5% decreases in seismic-wave velocity within an ???200-m-wide zone along the fault strike and smaller changes (0.2%-0.5%) beyond this zone, most likely due to the coseismic damage of rocks during dynamic rupture in the 2004 M 6.0 earthquake. The width of the damage zone characterized by larger velocity changes is consistent with the low-velocity waveguide model on the San Andreas fault, near Parkfield, that we derived from fault-zone trapped waves (Li et al., 2004). The damage zone is not symmetric but extends farther on the southwest side of the main fault trace. Waveform cross-correlations for repeated aftershocks in 21 clusters, with a total of ???130 events, located at different depths and distances from the array site show ???0.7%-1.1% increases in S-wave velocity within the fault zone in 3 months starting a week after the earthquake. The velocity recovery indicates that the damaged rock has been healing and regaining the strength through rigidity recovery with time, most likely . due to the closure of cracks opened during the mainshock. We estimate that the net decrease in seismic velocities within the fault zone was at least ???2.5%, caused by the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The healing rate was largest in the earlier stage of the postmainshock healing process. The magnitude of fault healing varies along the rupture zone, being slightly larger for the healing beneath Middle Mountain, correlating well with an area of large mapped slip. The fault healing is most prominent at depths above ???7 km.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1998

Use of fault striations and dislocation models to infer tectonic shear stress during the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake

Dislocation models of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake derived by Yoshida et al. (1996) show substantial changes in direction of slip with time at specific points on the Nojima and Rokko fault systems, as do striations we observed on exposures of the Nojima fault surface on Awaji Island. Spudich (1992) showed that the initial stress, that is, the shear traction on the fault before the earthquake origin time, can be derived at points on the fault where the slip rake rotates with time if slip velocity and stress change are known at these points. From Yoshida's slip model, we calculated dynamic stress changes on the ruptured fault surfaces. To estimate errors, we compared the slip velocities and dynamic stress changes of several published models of the earthquake. The differences between these models had an exponential distribution, not gaussian. We developed a Bayesian method to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of initial stress from the striations and from Yoshida's slip model. Striations near Toshima and Hirabayashi give initial stresses of about 13 and 7 MPa, respectively. We obtained initial stresses of about 7 to 17 MPa at depths of 2 to 10 km on a subset of points on the Nojima and Rokko fault systems. Our initial stresses and coseismic stress changes agree well with postearthquake stresses measured by hydrofracturing in deep boreholes near Hirabayashi and Ogura on Awaji Island. Our results indicate that the Nojima fault slipped at very low shear stress, and fractional stress drop was complete near the surface and about 32% below depths of 2 km. Our results at depth depend on the accuracy of the rake rotations in Yoshida's model, which are probably correct on the Nojima fault but debatable on the Rokko fault. Our results imply that curved or cross-cutting fault striations can be formed in a single earthquake, contradicting a common assumption of structural geology.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Fault interaction and stress triggering of twentieth century earthquakes in Mongolia

A cluster of exceptionally large earthquakes in the interior of Asia occurred from 1905 to 1967: the 1905 M7.9 Tsetserleg and M8.4 Bolnai earthquakes, the 1931 M8.0 Fu Yun earthquake, the 1957 M8.1 Gobi-Altai earthquake, and the 1967 M7.1 Mogod earthquake (sequence). Each of the larger (M ??? 8) earthquakes involved strike-slip faulting averaging more than 5 m and rupture lengths of several hundred kilometers. Available geologic data indicate that recurrence intervals on the major source faults are several thousands of years and distances of about 400 km separate the respective rupture areas. We propose that the occurrences of these and many smaller earthquakes are related and controlled to a large extent by stress changes generated by the compounded static deformation of the preceding earthquakes and subsequent viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle beneath Mongolia. We employ a spherically layered viscoelastic model constrained by the 1994-2002 GPS velocity field in western Mongolia [Vergnolle et al., 2003]. Using the succession of twentieth century earthquakes as sources of deformation, we then analyze the time-dependent change in Coulomb failure stress (????f). At remote interaction distances, static ????f values are small. However, modeled postseismic stress changes typically accumulate to several tenths of a bar over time intervals of decades. Almost all significant twentieth century regional earthquakes (M ??? 6) with well-constrained fault geometry lie in positive ????f lobes of magnitude about +0.5 bar. Our results suggest that significant stress transfer is possible among continental faults separated by hundreds of kilometers and on timescales of decades. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1992

Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake

The magnitude 7.5 Landers earthquake of 28 June 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike California in 40 years. The slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults; these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes. Stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small 1–5 , moderate 6 and large 7 earthquakes; conversely, those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity 5 . Here we use an elastic half-space model 8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the Landers earthquake on selected southern California faults, including the San Andreas. We find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4.5, and that the largest changes (1–10 bar), occurring on part of the San Bernardino segment of the San Andreas fault, may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years.

California↗

USGS2004

Evidence for Late Holocene earthquakes on the Utsalady Point fault, Northern Puget Lowland, Washington

Trenches across the Utsalady Point fault in the northern Puget Lowland of Washington reveal evidence of at least one and probably two late Holocene earthquakes. The "Teeka" and "Duffers" trenches were located along a 1.4-km-long, 1-to 4-m-high, northwest-trending, southwest-facing, topographic scarp recognized from Airborne Laser Swath Mapping. Glaciomarine drift exposed in the trenches reveals evidence of about 95 to 150 cm of vertical and 200 to 220 cm of left-lateral slip in the Teeka trench. Radiocarbon ages from a buried soil A horizon and overlying slope colluvium along with the historical record of earthquakes suggest that this faulting occurred 100 to 400 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1550 to 1850). In the Duffers trench, 370 to 450 cm of vertical separation is accommodated by faulting (???210 cm) and folding (???160 to 240 cm), with probable but undetermined amounts of lateral slip. Stratigraphic relations and radiocarbon ages from buried soil, colluvium, and fissure fill in the hanging wall suggest the deformation at Duffers is most likely from two earthquakes that occurred between 100 to 500 and 1100 to 2200 calendar years B.P., but deformation during a single earthquake is also possible. For the two-earthquake hypothesis, deformation at Teeka trench in the first event involved folding but not faulting. Regional relations suggest that the earthquake(s) were M ??? ???6.7 and that offshore rupture may have produced tsunamis. Based on this investigation and related recent studies, the maximum recurrence interval for large ground-rupturing crustal-fault earthquakes in the Puget Lowland is about 400 to 600 years or less.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The disastrous 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China took the local population as well as scientists by surprise. Although the Longmen Shan fault zonewhich includes the fault segments along which this earthquake nucleatedwas well known, geologic and geodetic data indicate relatively low (<3 mm yr -1 ) deformation rates. Here we invert Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to infer fault geometry and slip distribution associated with the earthquake. Our analysis shows that the geometry of the fault changes along its length: in the southwest, the fault plane dips moderately to the northwest but becomes nearly vertical in the northeast. Associated with this is a change in the motion along the fault from predominantly thrusting to strike-slip. Peak slip along the fault occurs at the intersections of fault segments located near the towns of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Nanba, where fatalities and damage were concentrated. We suggest that these locations represent barriers that failed in a single event, enabling the rupture to cascade through several fault segments and cause a major moment magnitude (M w ) 7.9 earthquake. Using coseismic slip distribution and geodetic and geological slip rates, we estimate that the failure of barriers and rupture along multiple segments takes place approximately once in 4,000 years. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS1996

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Faulting within the Mount St. Helens conduit and implications for volcanic earthquakes

The 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens produced seven dacite spines mantled by cataclastic fault rocks, comprising an outer fault core and an inner damage zone. These fault rocks provide remarkable insights into the mechanical processes that accompany extrusion of degassed magma, insights that are useful in forecasting dome-forming eruptions. The outermost part of the fault core consists of finely comminuted fault gouge that is host to 1- to 3-mm-thick layers of extremely fine-grained slickenside-bearing ultracataclasite. Interior to the fault core, there is an ∼2-m-thick damage zone composed of cataclastic breccia and sheared dacite, and interior to the damage zone, there is massive to flow-banded dacite lava of the spine interior. Structures and microtextures indicate entirely brittle deformation, including rock breakage, tensional dilation, shearing, grain flow, and microfaulting, as well as gas and fluid migration through intergranular pores and fractures in the damage zone. Slickenside lineations and consistent orientations of Riedel shears indicate upward shear of the extruding spines against adjacent conduit wall rocks. Paleomagnetic directions, demagnetization paths, oxide mineralogy, and petrology indicate that cataclasis took place within dacite in a solidified steeply dipping volcanic conduit at temperatures above 500 °C. Low water content of matrix glass is consistent with brittle behavior at these relatively high temperatures, and the presence of tridymite indicates solidification depths of <1 km. Cataclasis was coincident with the eruption’s seismogenic zone at <1.5 km. More than a million small and low-frequency “drumbeat” earthquakes with coda magnitudes (M d ) <2.0 and frequencies <5 Hz occurred during the 2004–2008 eruption. Our field data provide a means with which to estimate slip-patch dimensions for shear planes and to compare these with estimates of slip patches based on seismic moments and shear moduli for dacite rock and granular fault gouge. Based on these comparisons, we find that aseismic creep is achieved by micron-scale displacements on Riedel shears and by granular flow, whereas the drumbeat earthquakes require millimeter to centimeter displacements on relatively large (e.g., ∼1000 m 2 ) slip patches, possibly along observed extensive principal shear zones within the fault core but probably not along the smaller Riedel shears. Although our field and structural data are compatible with stick-slip models, they do not rule out seismic and infrasound models that call on resonance of steam-filled fractures to generate the drumbeat earthquakes. We suggest that stick-slip and gas release processes may be coupled, and that regardless of the source mechanism, the distinctive drumbeat earthquakes are proving to be an effective precursor for dome-forming eruptions. Our data document a continuous cycle of deformation along the conduit margins beginning with episodes of fracture in the damage zone and followed by transfer of motion to the fault core. We illustrate the cycle of deformation using a hypothetical cross section of the Mount St. Helens conduit, extending from the surface to the depth of magmatic solidification.

Washington↗

USGS1992

Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength

Faults with rate- and state-dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability. Calculations with a plane-strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch. The dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip. The critical length is a function of normal stress, loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include D c , the characteristic slip distance. If slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size, the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches. Solutions have been obtained for a uniform, fixed-patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane-strain model. Over a wide range of conditions, above the steady-state stress, the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases. Because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to D c , the moment of premonitory slip scales by D 3 c . The scaling of D c is currently an open question. Unless D c for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults, premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods. Excluding the possibility that D c in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake, then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch.

Tectonophysics↗