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Faults & earthquakes

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USGS2019

Late Quaternary slip rate of the Central Sierra Madre fault, southern California: Implications for slip partitioning and earthquake hazard

The Sierra Madre fault system accommodates contraction within a large restraining bend area of the San Andreas fault along the northern margin of the Los Angeles metropolitan area in Southern California. Reverse slip along this fault system during earthquakes controls growth of the San Gabriel Mountains and poses a significant seismic hazard to the region. Here, we measure the late Quaternary slip rate of the Central Sierra Madre fault (CSMF) using analysis of high-resolution topography combined with cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating and post-IR IRSL geochronology. We mapped terrace and fan surfaces from three drainages that cross the CSMF and correlate them based on soil development and geomorphic position. Cosmogenic nuclide and luminescence ages are consistent amongst the three prominent surfaces offset ~5 to 28 m across the fault zone. We devised a new strategy to estimate surface ages, incorporating data from two dating methods at three locations, refined by inset age relationships, that yields surface age estimates of 54 +21/-13 ka, 36 ± 8 ka, and 12 ± 4 ka. Estimated slip for these geomorphic markers is more uncertain than the measured vertical separation due to uncertainties in fault dip and ranges from 7.5 +5.4/-3.1 m to 58.5 +46.3/-14.4 m. Incremental dip-slip rate estimates from different age surfaces and locations overlap within uncertainty, with median values ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr. The average slip rate for all three generations of markers is 1.1 +1.2/-0.4 mm/yr. This late Quaternary slip rate for the CSMF is slower than estimates based on interseismic geodetic data, and emphasizes the importance of contraction distributed across multiple structures south of the Sierra Madre fault when assessed against the geodetic shortening budget. Despite being the central portion of the broader Sierra Madre fault system, the CSMF has a slip rate similar to or lower than neighboring sections, suggesting that slip transfer onto other nearby faults control the along-strike pattern of deformation rate. Paleoseismic evidence indicates that the last earthquake on the CSMF was in the early Holocene, and the slip rate we estimate suggests that the accumulated elastic strain could produce many meters of slip in future earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2023

Fracture-mesh faulting in the swarm-like 2020 Maacama sequence revealed by high-precision earthquake detection, location, and focal mechanisms

In August of 2020, an earthquake sequence initiated within the Maacama fault zone in northern California, raising questions about its relationship with the larger-scale fault. To investigate the faulting geometry and its implications for physical processes driving seismicity, we applied an integrated, multi-faceted seismic analysis including waveform-correlation-based event detection, relative relocation, and high-precision focal mechanisms. To determine mechanisms for a large population of very small earthquakes (predominantly M < 1), we combined correlation-derived polarity analysis with a recently developed technique to determine S/P amplitude ratios from single seismic components. Finally, we applied an iterative stress inversion to distinguish between the likely fault and auxiliary planes. This analysis reveals that although the sequence initiated on a right-lateral fault, plausibly a strand of the Maacama Fault, it also activated numerous en echelon left-lateral conjugate faults. Together, these interlocking faults form a fracture mesh, consistent with structures associated elsewhere with fluid-induced faulting and earthquake swarms.

California↗

USGS2010

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2003

Fault systems of the 1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, southern California: Relocated aftershocks and seismic images from LARSE II

We have constructed a composite image of the fault systems of the M 6.7 San Fernando (1971) and Northridge (1994), California, earthquakes, using industry reflection and oil test well data in the upper few kilometers of the crust, relocated aftershocks in the seismogenic crust, and LARSE II (Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment, Phase II) reflection data in the middle and lower crust. In this image, the San Fernando fault system appears to consist of a decollement that extends 50 km northward at a dip of ???25?? from near the surface at the Northridge Hills fault, in the northern San Fernando Valley, to the San Andreas fault in the middle to lower crust. It follows a prominent aseismic reflective zone below and northward of the main-shock hypocenter. Interpreted upward splays off this decollement include the Mission Hills and San Gabriel faults and the two main rupture planes of the San Fernando earthquake, which appear to divide the hanging wall into shingle- or wedge-like blocks. In contrast, the fault system for the Northridge earthquake appears simple, at least east of the LARSE II transect, consisting of a fault that extends 20 km southward at a dip of ???33?? from ???7 km depth beneath the Santa Susana Mountains, where it abuts the interpreted San Fernando decollement, to ???20 km depth beneath the Santa Monica Mountains. It follows a weak aseismic reflective zone below and southward of the mainshock hypocenter. The middle crustal reflective zone along the interpreted San Fernando decollement appears similar to a reflective zone imaged beneath the San Gabriel Mountains along the LARSE I transect, to the east, in that it appears to connect major reverse or thrust faults in the Los Angeles region to the San Andreas fault. However, it differs in having a moderate versus a gentle dip and in containing no mid-crustal bright reflections.

Geology↗

USGS2016

Constraints on the source parameters of low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) are small repeating earthquakes that occur in conjunction with deep slow slip. Like typical earthquakes, LFEs are thought to represent shear slip on crustal faults, but when compared to earthquakes of the same magnitude, LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content and have lower corner frequencies, implying longer duration. Here we exploit this difference to estimate the duration of LFEs on the deep San Andreas Fault (SAF). We find that the M ~ 1 LFEs have typical durations of ~0.2 s. Using the annual slip rate of the deep SAF and the average number of LFEs per year, we estimate average LFE slip rates of ~0.24 mm/s. When combined with the LFE magnitude, this number implies a stress drop of ~10 4 Pa, 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than ordinary earthquakes, and a rupture velocity of 0.7 km/s, 20% of the shear wave speed. Typical earthquakes are thought to have rupture velocities of ~80–90% of the shear wave speed. Together, the slow rupture velocity, low stress drops, and slow slip velocity explain why LFEs are depleted in high-frequency content relative to ordinary earthquakes and suggest that LFE sources represent areas capable of relatively higher slip speed in deep fault zones. Additionally, changes in rheology may not be required to explain both LFEs and slow slip; the same process that governs the slip speed during slow earthquakes may also limit the rupture velocity of LFEs.

California↗

USGS2018

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord–Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ∼4000 events with magnitudes between − 0.2 < M d < 3.6 "> −0.2< M d <3.6 . The swarm illuminated three sub-parallel, southwest striking and northwest dipping fault segments of km-scale dimension and thickness of up to 200 m. The segments contain coexisting populations of different focal-mechanisms, suggesting a complex fault zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

California↗

USGS2012

High-frequency spectral falloff of earthquakes, fractal dimension of complex rupture, b value, and the scaling of strength on faults

The high-frequency falloff ω −γ of earthquake displacement spectra and the b value of aftershock sequences are attributed to the character of spatially varying strength along fault zones. I assume that the high frequency energy of a main shock is produced by a self-similar distribution of subevents, where the number of subevents with radii greater than R is proportional to R −D , D being the fractal dimension. In this model, an earthquake is composed of a hierarchical set of smaller earthquakes. The static stress drop is parameterized to be proportional to R η , and strength is assumed to be proportional to static stress drop. I find that a distribution of subevents with D = 2 and stress drop independent of seismic moment (η = 0) produces a main shock with an ω −2 falloff, if the subevent areas fill the rupture area of the main shock. By equating subevents to “islands” of high stress of a random, self-similar stress field on a fault, I relate D to the scaling of strength on a fault, such that D = 2 − η. Thus D = 2 corresponds to constant stress drop scaling (η = 0) and scale-invariant fault strength. A self-similar model of aftershock rupture zones on a fault is used to determine the relationship between the b value, the size distribution of aftershock rupture zones, and the scaling of strength on a fault. The b value for aftershock sequences on a fault is found to equal (3 − 1.5η)/(3 + η). Therefore this model indicates that the typically observed spectral falloffs of ω −2 and b values of 1 can be entirely caused by scale-invariant strength (η = 0) along fault zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2004

Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work

The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood typifies the entire southern San Andreas fault; more long event series will be required to definitively outline prehistoric rupture extents.

California↗

USGS2002

Geometry, slip distribution, and kinematics of surface rupture on the Sakarya fault segment during the 17 August 1999 İzmit, Turkey, earthquake

The M w 7.4 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake ruptured five major fault segments of the dextral North Anatolian Fault Zone. The 26-km-long, N86°W-trending Sakarya fault segment (SFS) extends from the Sapanca releasing step-over in the west to near the town of Akyazi in the east. The SFS emerges from Lake Sapanca as two distinct fault traces that rejoin to traverse the Adapazari Plain to Akyazi. Offsets were measured across 88 cultural and natural features that cross the fault, such as roads, cornfield rows, rows of trees, walls, rails, field margins, ditches, vehicle ruts, a dike, and ground cracks. The maximum displacement observed for the İzmit earthquake (&sim;5.1 m) was encountered on this segment. Dextral displacement for the SFS rises from less than 1 m at Lake Sapanca to greater than 5 m near Arifiye, only 3 km away. Average slip decreases uniformly to the east from Arifiye until the fault steps left from Sagir to Kazanci to the N75°W, 6-km-long Akyazi strand, where slip drops to less than 1 m. The Akyazi strand passes eastward into the Akyazi Bend, which consists of a high-angle bend (18°-29°) between the Sakarya and Karadere fault segments, a 6-km gap in surface rupture, and high aftershock energy release. Complex structural geometries exist between the İzmit, Düzce, and 1967 Mudurnu fault segments that have arrested surface ruptures on timescales ranging from 30 sec to 88 days to 32 yr. The largest of these step-overs may have acted as a rupture segmentation boundary in previous earthquake cycles.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2004

Remotely triggered seismicity on the United States west coast following the Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake

The M w 7.9 Denali fault earthquake in central Alaska of 3 November 2002 triggered earthquakes across western North America at epicentral distances of up to at least 3660 km. We describe the spatial and temporal development of triggered activity in California and the Pacific Northwest, focusing on Mount Rainier, the Geysers geothermal field, the Long Valley caldera, and the Coso geothermal field. The onset of triggered seismicity at each of these areas began during the Love and Raleigh waves of the M w 7.9 wave train, which had dominant periods of 15 to 40 sec, indicating that earthquakes were triggered locally by dynamic stress changes due to low-frequency surface wave arrivals. Swarms during the wave train continued for ∼4 min (Mount Rainier) to ∼40 min (the Geysers) after the surface wave arrivals and were characterized by spasmodic bursts of small ( M ≤ 2.5) earthquakes. Dynamic stresses within the surface wave train at the time of the first triggered earthquakes ranged from 0.01 MPa (Coso) to 0.09 MPa (Mount Rainier). In addition to the swarms that began during the surface wave arrivals, Long Valley caldera and Mount Rainier experienced unusually large seismic swarms hours to days after the Denali fault earthquake. These swarms seem to represent a delayed response to the Denali fault earthquake. The occurrence of spatially and temporally distinct swarms of triggered seismicity at the same site suggests that earthquakes may be triggered by more than one physical process.

North America↗

USGS2015

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (M w 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

Bulnay Fault↗

USGS2020

A high-resolution seismic catalog for the initial 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake sequence: Foreshocks, aftershocks, and faulting complexity

I use template matching and precise relative relocation techniques to develop a high-resolution earthquake catalog for the initial portion of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, from July 4-16, encompassing the foreshock sequence and the first 10+ days of aftershocks following the M w 7.1 mainshock. Using 13,525 routinely cataloged events as waveform templates, I detect and precisely locate a total of 34,091 events. Precisely located earthquakes reveal numerous cross-cutting fault structures with dominantly perpendicular SW- and NW-strikes. Foreshocks of the M w 6.4 event appear to align on a NW-striking fault. Aftershocks of the M w 6.4 event suggest that it further ruptured this NW-striking fault, as well as the SW-striking fault where surface rupture was observed. Finally, aftershocks of the M w 7.1 show a highly complex distribution, illuminating a primary NW-striking fault zone consistent with surface rupture, but also numerous cross-cutting SW-striking faults. Aftershock relocations suggest that the M w 7.1 event ruptured adjacent to the previous NW-striking rupture of the M w 6.4, perhaps activating a subparallel structure southwest of the earlier rupture. Both the NW and SE rupture termini of the M w 7.1 rupture exhibited multiple-fault branching, with particularly high rates of aftershocks and multiple fault orientations in the dilatational quadrant NE of the NW rupture terminus.

California↗

USGS1992

The 1992 Landers earthquake and surface faulting

Faulting associated with the June 28, 992, earthquake near Landers, California, broke the surface of the ground over a length of more than 70 km, the longest surface rupture in the United States since the great San Francisco quake of 1906. the strongest shaking associated with this magnitude 7.6 (M S ) earthquake, the largest in the contiguous 48 states in the last 40 years, occurred in a sparsely populated sections of the Mojave Desert more than 200 km east of Los Angeles. the earthquake began with a sudden slip on the Johnson Valley fault about 10 km southwest of Landers. The initial fault movement probably occurred at a depth of less than 10 km. Surface faulting then propagated over 70 km to the north and northeast. The faulting linked preexisting faults-some previously known and mapped and others previously unknown-into a complex, coherent rupture zone.

California↗

USGS2005

Earthquake fracture energy inferred from kinematic rupture models on extended faults

We estimate fracture energy on extended faults for several recent earthquakes by retrieving dynamic traction evolution at each point on the fault plane from slip history imaged by inverting ground motion waveforms. We define the breakdown work (Wb) as the excess of work over some minimum traction level achieved during slip. Wb is equivalent to "seismological" fracture energy (G) in previous investigations. Our numerical approach uses slip velocity as a boundary condition on the fault. We employ a three-dimensional finite difference algorithm to compute the dynamic traction evolution in the time domain during the earthquake rupture. We estimate Wb by calculating the scalar product between dynamic traction and slip velocity vectors. This approach does not require specifying a constitutive law and assuming dynamic traction to be collinear with slip velocity. If these vectors are not collinear, the inferred breakdown work depends on the initial traction level. We show that breakdown work depends on the square of slip. The spatial distribution of breakdown work in a single earthquake is strongly correlated with the slip distribution. Breakdown work density and its integral over the fault, breakdown energy, scale with seismic moment according to a power law (with exponent 0.59 and 1.18, respectively). Our estimates of breakdown work range between 4 ?? 105 and 2 ?? 107 J/m2 for earthquakes having moment magnitudes between 5.6 and 7.2. We also compare our inferred values with geologic surface energies. This comparison might suggest that breakdown work for large earthquakes goes primarily into heat production. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

California↗

USGS1998

Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides: An indication of high preseismic fault stress rate

Because the rate of stress change from the Earth tides exceeds that from tectonic stress accumulation, tidal triggering of earthquakes would be expected if the final hours of loading of the fault were at the tectonic rate and if rupture began soon after the achievement of a critical stress level. We analyze the tidal stresses and stress rates on the fault planes and at the times of 13,042 earthquakes which are so close to the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in California that we may take the fault plane to be known. We find that the stresses and stress rates from Earth tides at the times of earthquakes are distributed in the same way as tidal stresses and stress rates at random times. While the rate of earthquakes when the tidal stress promotes failure is 2% higher than when the stress does not, this difference in rate is not statistically significant. This lack of tidal triggering implies that preseismic stress rates in the nucleation zones of earthquakes are at least 0.15 bar/h just preceding seismic failure, much above the long-term tectonic stress rate of 10 −4 bar/h.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1987

Occurrence of a predicted earthquake on the San Andreas fault

In May 1985 we predicted 1 that an earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Stone Canyon, California within a year. The prediction was based on the observation of seismic quiescence–defined as a significant decrease in the average occurrence rate of earthquakes within the source volume of the future mainshock. A mainshock of magnitude M L = 4.6 occurred on 31 May 1986, rupturing exactly the specified segment of the fault. This is the first successful prediction of an earthquake along the San Andreas fault, and the probability to have come true by chance is <5%. Although the prediction addressed only a small main-shock, its success was significant because the location, size and occurrence time were correctly specified for an earthquake in a populated area. Larger earthquakes will undoubtedly be successfully predicted by the same method in the future, but the major segments of the San Andreas fault near San Francisco and Los Angeles have such a low-background seismicity rate that the method will probably not be applicable there.

California↗

USGS1996

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

Stress changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone.

Nature↗